Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

love it when the double cream is 75% off at Tesco,i tend to make butter with it,easy in a food processor.

Well `if you can't beat them, join them`...forget butter, try making homemade yoghurt from it...super thick like the Greek style! :-)

[Jesus Wept]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

I bought some Telefonica Brazil a few days ago,but have ladders set in them and the rest.Im trying to work through a few more.Id be happy with around 5 if i can.

@DurhamBorn - what’s your thinking behind Brazil and telecoms/ gas/ utilities etc as ripe for investment and growth? Is it the predicted high inflation and currency issues? 

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

The companies who go back to office working will outperform the others I believe.

I think this working from home is just newsworthy at present. All the companies I have dealt with this past year have been rubbish, especially HMRC.

I am out working again, self-employed tradesman. Seems to be a bunch of people happy to sit at home wanting government hand outs and another lot who have decided just to get on with it.

I think this and the post you quoted highlight a very important point regarding any youngsters thinking about their careers...most professions can be done from home and so `shipped` overseas, whereas vocational jobs can't....

[invalid]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im glad i closed my business when i did and invested the money in Harmony Gold etc .The price of a container is nuts,plus you have VAT on top.Shipping small items will be ok still,but anything say TV sized box will see the unit price shoot up.I actually closed my business based on my roadmap and im very pleased i did.Inflation is going to jump hard and we are positioned to leverage it,though as usual the market is waking up before the event and we have already made fantastic profits.

Im scouring facebook marketplace every day for anything i need.Iv even got spares of most things now,spare lawn mower etc 

 

It's like the tide going out before the tsunami, or the calm before the storm.

The increase in shipping container costs is cropping up in many conversations lately, it's starting to cause concern. Some say it will be months before the situation is resolved, some say it take years. Those in business positions to be aware of such things are all talking of inflation and recession.

Increased inflation this year is certain. Cost of imports. Cost of raw materials. Domestic economic inefficiency.

How much inflation and how it effects the economy and government response I'm not so sure.

Anyone who uses Amazon or ebay, look at common low value made in China items you bought a year ago and compare with todays prices.

A couple of years back I bought a reel of solder from China. It was cheaper to buy it from China and have it shoved through my letterbox than it was to buy from the electrical wholesalers down the road with my trade account. Add in the fuel and time costs on top!

I can see lots of signs and messages. Some of it is first hand, some second hand. I feel that something is coming, but I lack the vision to anticipate what that might be.

[Bobthebuilder]

5 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

I think this and the post you quoted highlight a very important point regarding any youngsters thinking about their careers...most professions can be done from home and so `shipped` overseas, whereas vocational jobs can't....

I always tell young labourers on sites, "electric and plumbing are never going away". Some get it.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

Just popped into our local garden machinery dealer. Major issues with the supply chain. Suppliers in Europe/USA are unable or not willing to provide guaranteed delivery dates. The rising covid rates in eastern europe probably not going to help things. He also talked about the cost of a container from China shooting up from usual $3000 to $15000 

He's got a list a mile long of people wanting new kit.

That's why I've been buying everything I need ASAP.  Just bought an arc welder to follow my log splitter.  Have a £500 wood delivery next week.  Bought a load of Briggs, etc service parts at the start of the pandemic but will buy a load more.  Even if the supplies don't get problematic, the prices probably will.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, AWW said:

This is simply a management problem and will be sorted out eventually

Absolutely.  I never cared how or where people did what was needed, just was clear on what was required and monitored what was done.  Spent my time in between supporting people to deliver well according to their needs.  IMO, that's a key role of a good manager.  Managers obsessed with presence and team members unhappy with a delivery focus (with low office politics) need not apply and hated it.

[invalid]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Tell you what there's going to be a boom in - garden offices. I've a site cleared for mine already but I need to order the timbers asap before all the other noddys around here get the same idea. 

Actually might ask @Bobthebuilder and the hive mind for a tip. I've put in a retaining wall (it's a sloped site with 200x100m softwood tanalised timbers. I used those for posts too, sunk in well over a third of their length, some a half. The ground is very sandy and loose, so a bit paranoid about it. I painted most of the posts with bitumen paint too, till I got tired of it. However, I really really wish I'd used oak for the posts. Question is, how long do you think this bloody wall will hold?! It's retaining about 5ft of earth in the corner. About a year old, hasn't budged yet.

Shovel for scale. The inside posts are bitumen treated, I added the outside ones later because I decided to overengineer it 

 

Personally, I've never gone for the bitument treating of the posts. Once they are in I give the tops a really good soak (keep brushing it on, it's surprising how much soaks in) over a fews days in the summer (when the wood is dry) with a mix of wood/fence preserver (not waterbased!!) with a bit of oil added (cheap new engine oil or veg oil). Let it soak in, over time it soaks down through the grain the bottom (my theory). Repeat every few years.

I have similiar posts to what you have which are now 25 years old. Those in another area which I was not treating completely rotted out at the bases around 10 years ago.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, Hancock said:

Soon they'll be realising what the fuck do i want to pay people tens of thousands of pounds to sit on the internet most the day.

Then it'll be why should i pay the ones who do some work tens of thousands of pounds a year, when i can get someone in East Europe or India to do it for the fraction of that.

Get an iffy degree and debt and face all that or get a trade.  I did well with uni and all the rest back in the day but would just go and learn a trade now, no question.  The trades around here are maxed out.  Gotta have the ability though to go it alone.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Tell you what there's going to be a boom in - garden offices. I've a site cleared for mine already but I need to order the timbers asap before all the other noddys around here get the same idea. 

Actually might ask @Bobthebuilder and the hive mind for a tip. I've put in a retaining wall (it's a sloped site with 200x100m softwood tanalised timbers. I used those for posts too, sunk in well over a third of their length, some a half. The ground is very sandy and loose, so a bit paranoid about it. I painted most of the posts with bitumen paint too, till I got tired of it. However, I really really wish I'd used oak for the posts. Question is, how long do you think this bloody wall will hold?! It's retaining about 5ft of earth in the corner. About a year old, hasn't budged yet.

Shovel for scale. The inside posts are bitumen treated, I added the outside ones later because I decided to overengineer it 

I could chip in but a bit late, not that you should worry.  Plus I'm more of a dry waller.  Rough rule for posts is one third in but thats not as a retainer.  The weak spot is at ground level.  Just lost a gate post due to that.  Even had that plastic wrap around it billed as being protective.  Seemed to make things worse.  That sandy soil will be good for drainage though.  Ideally, I'd have added a "dead man" or whatever they call it to secure the beams into the slope and, at least in stone, membraned the slope and backfilled with drainage material.  But nothing lasts forever, except my walls!

PS:  Hat's off to you for undertaking the job.

[Chewing Grass]

Posts will last 15-20 years, panels will be getting tired at 10 years, susceptible to wind damage at 15 and roached by 20.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Perfect, much appreciated. Seems criminal to tar such beautiful timber, but I have to tell myself it's for strength and endurance. More f*n digging then 

Petrol augers are cheap and work better on your ground than my rocky ground (ie. less broken bones and bruises)!  I see bags of postcrete!

PS:  Nice job.  Good example where 9 times out of 10 you've done a better job than had you paid.

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Thanks. I have some gravel in behind it, but I needent have bothered. It's so sandy I can pour a barrel of water on the ground and it just sinks right down. 

Apparently the drainage is not just about rot prevention but also to avoid a build up of hydrostatic pressure.

PS:  Has the corner been re-inforced?  And are you using steels too?

PPS:  I must get back to finance this weekend but this stuff is so satisfying: "problem, solution, celebration" x4 this week!

[Bobthebuilder]

6 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Tell you what there's going to be a boom in - garden offices. I've a site cleared for mine already but I need to order the timbers asap before all the other noddys around here get the same idea. 

Actually might ask @Bobthebuilder and the hive mind for a tip. I've put in a retaining wall (it's a sloped site with 200x100m softwood tanalised timbers. I used those for posts too, sunk in well over a third of their length, some a half. The ground is very sandy and loose, so a bit paranoid about it. I painted most of the posts with bitumen paint too, till I got tired of it. However, I really really wish I'd used oak for the posts. Question is, how long do you think this bloody wall will hold?! It's retaining about 5ft of earth in the corner. About a year old, hasn't budged yet.

Shovel for scale. The inside posts are bitumen treated, I added the outside ones later because I decided to overengineer it 

I reckon that should be good for 10 years. That hill will win eventually, gravity always wins. Nice job.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, invalid said:

 

It's like the tide going out before the tsunami, or the calm before the storm.

The increase in shipping container costs is cropping up in many conversations lately, it's starting to cause concern. Some say it will be months before the situation is resolved, some say it take years. Those in business positions to be aware of such things are all talking of inflation and recession.

Increased inflation this year is certain. Cost of imports. Cost of raw materials. Domestic economic inefficiency.

How much inflation and how it effects the economy and government response I'm not so sure.

Anyone who uses Amazon or ebay, look at common low value made in China items you bought a year ago and compare with todays prices.

A couple of years back I bought a reel of solder from China. It was cheaper to buy it from China and have it shoved through my letterbox than it was to buy from the electrical wholesalers down the road with my trade account. Add in the fuel and time costs on top!

I can see lots of signs and messages. Some of it is first hand, some second hand. I feel that something is coming, but I lack the vision to anticipate what that might be.

I think as we have always said we are in for massive dislocation.In basic terms things are going up in price so that people can be paid here to make the same things.Its why i ended my business.When i started it was incredible.You could pretty much ship anything from China and sell it in 3 months for 150% profit.When i stopped it was down to 40% and that was when a 40 high cube container cost £3k to ship not £10k.There is VAT on the shipping as well so bumps it up even more.

I was employed until a month ago in a world class company,the best in their industry and the lines were stopping for the most simple things like gaskets.When i was 14 there were dozens of local companies made them,now nobody.

This is why iv urged people to de-complex.Stick to things right back and simple and where they can leverage the inflation coming.

 

[Bricks & Mortar]

4 hours ago, invalid said:

It's like the tide going out before the tsunami, or the calm before the storm.

On 18/03/2021 at 22:40, Viceroy said:

you guys are making me hungry!

if you wanna jazz up boiled rice, fry a little onion+garlic+chopped Kelp (soften the dried kelp in water for 20mins-Asian shops sell it in packets) before adding the dry rice+water and boiling til cooked.

http://www.whfoods.com/genpage.php?tname=recipe&dbid=144

 

[Chewing Grass]

This has surfaced again in the Torygraph:-

Treasury officials are reportedly preparing radical plans to slash higher-rate tax relief on pensions contributions, this newspaper has revealed.

An announcement could come as soon as next week, sources said, however Whitehall has ruled out publishing proposals on March 23, which has been dubbed "Tax Day".

Cutting higher rate tax relief would mean all pension savers receive a flat 20pc rate of tax relief instead of at their marginal rate of income tax, 40pc or 45pc for higher and additional rate taxpayers. The premise of offering higher rate relief to higher rate taxpayers is to avoid them paying tax both on savings going into a pension and on the income withdrawn in retirement.

But how much would this cost you depends on the type of pension scheme you are using. However, all the 4.7 million higher and additional rate taxpayers will be worse off in retirement under the proposals.

Anyone who pays into a workplace pension receives tax relief, which means the contributions are effectively topped up by the Government. Cutting relief to a flat rate would would mean all savers receive only 20pc relief but could still pay 40pc or 45pc income tax during retirement.

This would mean my Plan B post IR35 may be going up in smoke which was my easy plan to fill my retirement black hole. Interestingly this may possibly not really affect Public Sector final salary schemes due the difficulty in valuing them.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/pensions-tax-relief-raid-much-could-cost/

[DurhamBorn]

I think pensions tax relief at 40% is sure to go at some point,but i think they might increase the bottom to 25% for everyone.Right now you have people building full pensions on tax relief,then others on say £22k a year who will get housing benefit when retired.If they transfer that tax relief to the lower paid it costs nothing but saves massive amounts later.

Pensions are one of the main planks of ordinary people escaping work and as the system stands now with tax allowances,ISAs etc its very do-able at 50 or 55 for anyone earning over say £25k who can live happily on £15k.

The huge problem the government have is work doesnt pay anymore.Being £50 a week better off than a single mother for flogging on on 12 hour night shifts in some shit hole warehouse isnt appealing,so they have people refusing to work near the bottom,and saving to not work at the top.

Out of interest i got a call yesterday from an agency for a job.Its actually stripping and re-building train engines.I knew the guy who was their off site supervisor years ago and know they used to nearly always use Eastern Europeans in the factory.They gave the usual talk about how wonderful and kept the salary until last,because it was terrible.Obvious they are struggling to get people.I told them with the council tax being so high id need a 60% higher salary than that to even consider it,not that id consider it of course.

[No One]

23 hours ago, Hancock said:

Got to get the real deal.

This stuff is magic. Great product. Used to be able to find it in Tesco's but not any more

15 hours ago, Harley said:

Absolutely.  I never cared how or where people did what was needed, just was clear on what was required and monitored what was done.  Spent my time in between supporting people to deliver well according to their needs.  IMO, that's a key role of a good manager.  Managers obsessed with presence and team members unhappy with a delivery focus (with low office politics) need not apply and hated it.

A good manager manages systems and leads people, a bad manager does the opposite.

[Harley]

What technically is March 23, this tax day?  Is it some existing event rebranded or a new constuct?  Any intel on what's being touted as probable?

[Harley]

20 minutes ago, No One said:

This stuff is magic. Great product. Used to be able to find it in Tesco's but not any more

A good manager manages systems and leads people, a bad manager does the opposite.

I was often the fixer, called in after the SHTF.  Different faces but always the same MO.  But like with this wonky finance stuff, I was always amazed at how long the unsustainable could be sustained.

[Harley]

21 minutes ago, No One said:

This stuff is magic. Great product. Used to be able to find it in Tesco's but not any more

A good manager manages systems and leads people, a bad manager does the opposite.

People, not systems!  Coach people to succeed against what has been pre-defined. 

[Chewing Grass]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Out of interest i got a call yesterday from an agency for a job.Its actually stripping and re-building train engines.I knew the guy who was their off site supervisor years ago and know they used to nearly always use Eastern Europeans in the factory.They gave the usual talk about how wonderful and kept the salary until last,because it was terrible.Obvious they are struggling to get people.I told them with the council tax being so high id need a 60% higher salary than that to even consider it,not that id consider it of course.

Got this from one of the traditional agents in my sector: Senior Mechanical Engineer roles - Inscope Contracts multiple clients call Sharon.

They are not moving on rates, old Ltd rates are new inscope rates so they are scraping barrels, if 40% relief goes, more will walk.

Unless rates go up its not worth the grief anymore for the older ones trying to fill underfunded pension pots.

Killing the 40% relief will be another inflationary trigger (or collapse).

[AlfredTheLittle]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

What technically is March 23, this tax day?  Is it some existing event rebranded or a new constuct?  Any intel on what's being touted as probable?

Is it the day in the tax year when you finally start earning for yourself rather than the government? I know that day's been moving forward evermore, and with only 14 days left in the tax year it seems about right

[AWW]

I can't remember the last time I worked on a project that was delivered because of good management. All the good stuff I've worked on has been delivered by good people who worked out how to get stuff done despite crap management.

Project Managers are my biggest bugbear. Most are box tickers, rarely understand the big picture and place a huge management overhead of their own on the people who actually create stuff.