Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Majorpain]

57 minutes ago, Harley said:

I looked at the top shareholders for VIV and Telefonica Spain was not listed.  Do they actually own it?

Interestingly I could buy the TIMB ADR in my SIPP but not VIV.  One reason for VIV may be it's not an ADR for a company on a recognised exchange.  But that should apply to TIMB too.  Anyways, I bought elsewhere.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telefônica_Brasil

99% sure they do, its not often my google-fu fails me!

[M S E Refugee]

13 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/reimagining-policy-making-for-4ir-closing-speech
 

What a lovely speech from Mr.Hancock giving us the heads up

 

I'm not sure these dangerous weirdo's are going to get their own way now that they have shown their hand.

Even the Mumsnetters have heard of Klaus's warped gang of control freaks and they aren't impressed at all.

 

[Loki]

17 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/reimagining-policy-making-for-4ir-closing-speech
 

What a lovely speech from Mr.Hancock giving us the heads up

 

 

Quote

 

The internet can be used to spread terrorist material; it can be a tool for abuse and bullying; and, it can undermine civil discourse, objective news and intellectual property.

The digital revolution has changed the way that people behave and interact.

Instead of a piecemeal response to each issue separately, our response is the Digital Charter, which the Prime Minister will be setting out in her speech later today.

This is a rolling programme of work to agree a consistent set of norms and rules for the online world and put them into practice.

In some cases this will be through shifting our expectations of behaviour; in others we may need new laws or regulations.

Our starting point will be that we will have the same rights and expect the same behaviour online as we do offline.

The Charter’s core purpose is to make the internet work for everyone – for citizens, businesses and society as a whole.

It will move the philosophy we apply to the Internet from libertarian to liberal values - to cherish freedom, but not the freedom to harm others.

The Charter brings together a broad, ongoing programme, with priority areas including protecting people from online harms, sorting out platform liability and leading on data ethics.

And I want us to practise what we preach about agile governance. It will be a ‘living’ document that sits online - and as technology changes, the Charter will evolve too.

 

 

That entire document should be alarming to anyone who can read into what they are saying 

[Loki]

Just now, M S E Refugee said:

I'm not sure these dangerous weirdo's are going to get their own way now that they have shown their hand.

Even the Mumsnetters have heard of Klaus's warped gang of control freaks and they aren't impressed at all.

 

They went along with it all up till now and ignored Covidiot conspiracy theorists.  

"Klaus" and his mob are always one step ahead.  The mumsnormies will just lap up whatever they throw out next.  I wonder if Blofeld  Klaus is even a distraction. I mean come on.  Look at him.

Look here, don't look here, as Mannarino likes to say.

[sancho panza]

via an interesting macrovoices podcast accompanying chartdeck

there's a bit in this when Jesse felder talks about rising IR's,rising oil prices and rising dollar is a good trifecta predictor of an earnings recession.

https://www.macrovoices.com/962-macrovoices-266-jesse-felder-macro-roadmap-for-the-s-p500

[M S E Refugee]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

They went along with it all up till now and ignored Covidiot conspiracy theorists.  

"Klaus" and his mob are always one step ahead.  The mumsnormies will just lap up whatever they throw out next.  I wonder if Blofeld  Klaus is even a distraction. I mean come on.  Look at him.

Look here, don't look here, as Mannarino likes to say.

Klaus is just a puppet, this cunt is the Capo dei capi.

[geordie_lurch]

3 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Does anyone think that Vaccine failure could trigger the Big Kahuna?

A few highly Vaxxed Countries are seeing a surge in cases.

That all depends on what TPTB see as a failure doesn't it... would a load of vaccinated plebs suddenly increasing 'cases' or even dying and a new 'vaccine' booster being needed later this year be a failure for them and their mates at the WEF and big pharma

The fact your are seeing the link between highly vaccinated countries and a surge in 'cases' should tell you everything.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I looked at the top shareholders for VIV and Telefonica Spain was not listed.  Do they actually own it?

Interestingly I could buy the TIMB ADR in my SIPP but not VIV.  One reason for VIV may be it's not an ADR for a company on a recognised exchange.  But that should apply to TIMB too.  Anyways, I bought elsewhere.

Your probably looking at holders of the ADRs ,Telefonica Spain own 70% of the equity i think.

[sancho panza]

Not really news to your average basement dweller but still the pictures are pretty.

But,but.....GDP numbers are up..'we're all in this together'..

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/04/12/i-now-track-the-most-important-measure-in-the-feds-vision-of-the-economy-the-wealth-effect-and-how-it-impacts-americans-individually/

Today we will see the per-capita progress of that wealth effect – what it means and what it accomplishes – based on the Fed’s wealth distribution data through Q4 2020, and based on Census Bureau estimates for the US population over the years. Here are some key results. At the end of 2020, the per-capita wealth (assets minus debts) of:

• The 1% = $11.7 million per person (green);
• The next 9% = $1.6 million per person (blue);
• The 50% to 90% = $42,083 per person (red line at the bottom).
• The bottom 50% = $15,027 per person. That amount of wealth is so small it doesn’t show up on this per-capita chart that is on a scale of wealth that accommodates the 1%.

 

[sancho panza]

BoC goes for  the full BoJ.

All that's missing is some Green Energy ETF's.

 

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/04/06/bank-of-canada-holdings-government-of-canada-bonds-rise-to-40-percent-total-outstanding-fed-a-saint-in-comparison-taper-on-table/

the Bank of Canada’s ballooning holdings of Government of Canada (GoC) bonds, which will hit a stunning 40% of all GoC bonds outstanding this Friday.

By comparison, the Fed holds 17.6% of all Treasury securities outstanding: It holds $4.94 trillion in Treasury securities, of $28.1 Trillion outstanding. We – that’s the universal “we,” meaning “a few of us” – complain about the Fed’s crazy buying of Treasury securities and all the distortion and craziness this causes. But compared to the Bank of Canada, the Fed looks like a saint.

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Klaus is just a puppet, this cunt is the Capo dei capi.

Not sure, who’s the final boss?

 

 

[Harley]

5 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Does anyone think that Vaccine failure could trigger the Big Kahuna?

A few highly Vaxxed Countries are seeing a surge in cases.

The market will BK when it wants to BK and people will retrofit the reason why later!

[Harley]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

Thanks Harley, many many good points you make, and which i take on board. I think i will end up trying a momentum strategy, and the fund based ones reduce risk. Actually the BAN guy you linked to would be my ideal method as i would like to include some options trading with the momentum trade (options would be totally new to me but you can set your own level of options risk-profile so can gently 'build into it' with experience). Unfortunately BAN is US focused so will have to settle for the lower 12% returns from the UK offerings, as opposed to the 30%++ he was achieving (he mentions consistently thrashing the Nasdaq, which i think is averaging 28%). The other part of this for me is utilising an investment approach that can produce 'CGT free income' (current allowance is 12,300, bit ambitious i know), but the prospect of finding ways to to produce investment income without paying tax is almost irresistible(!), still requires more thought though, but worth investigating.     

If I had time I would go for the BAN with options on US ETFs.  I've wanted to get back into options but I have too many other fab things to do atm like learning to weld.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

They went along with it all up till now and ignored Covidiot conspiracy theorists.  

"Klaus" and his mob are always one step ahead.  The mumsnormies will just lap up whatever they throw out next.  I wonder if Blofeld  Klaus is even a distraction. I mean come on.  Look at him.

Look here, don't look here, as Mannarino likes to say.

Some groups seem to run on mass from one side of the ship to the other and panic it's always listing!

[Harley]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Your probably looking at holders of the ADRs ,Telefonica Spain own 70% of the equity i think.

Duh me! 

[Harley]

Bought a few gold miners as value plays today as well as a shipping company.  The miners were not oversold but I jumped the gun because they may have turned from a dip.  Divs, cash flows, strong balance sheets, and they even mine gold!  Small top ups for TTA and BP, otherwise everything is pretty overbought or are rising dogs I'm waiting to dump on a turn.

Cleared out most trades for a net profit but left some runners to play out to profit.  Cleared out some other legacy holdings with weak fundamentals while waiting for some others to close a top.  Top sliced ADM thanks!   All part of clearing the decks for any BK.  Not good to have loose stuff flying around when it gets choppy.  

[jamtomorrow]

Chanced upon this thread I'd missed from Feb from the cryptovoices crew. Posting not for crypto relevance, but because I haven't seen an analysis of changes in global money supply presented quite like this before (although the crypto aspects are certainly interesting if you're into that):

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1360218745222934528.html

I won't paste the whole thread here, just a couple of charts that surprised me. First, global base money separated into physical (notes/coins) vs digital reserves:

What surprised me: as recently as 2008, physical still accounted for the vast majority of base money, globally. It's only since the GFC that digital takes over. Hmmmm

Second surprising chart, annualised global fiat growth:

There are some familiar faces in there (41% in the year of the GFC) - but WTF happened in 1999? Commentary says mini bank run because of Y2K. Which I suppose is possible given the first chart. But more hmmmm.

(Edit to add: also tightening in 2018/2019 shows up clearly)

Plenty more gems in the thread. Oh, and here's the original thread in case the unroll breaks: 

 

[Barnsey]

Interesting, my 15 year fix from Accord has been pulled from market, which just leaves YBS (parent building society) at a higher rate as the only one on the market. Won't be surprised to see this pulled too. I wonder why? 

[Hancock]

Good day for Babcock share price.

Not so good if you work there.
https://news.sky.com/story/engineering-giant-babcock-to-cut-1-000-jobs-in-restructuring-12274072

[leonardratso]

re lon:kaz, gonna sell out this week, should stay solid at around £8.50, just got to wait for the 19.5p ex divi date today to be sure of gettig it i suppose;

shame really, was a good run up;

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2021/04/09/kaz-minerals-buyout-succeeds-with-higher-offer/

 

[wherebee]

Sold out of my MOS.  Made over 100%.  That's almost 10k profit.  Incredible, really.

The dividend forecasts looked pretty weak, and as I have been reminded by you good people before, nobody ever went broke taking profits.

Now I just need some of those aussie junior miners to boom.  Holding on the sidelines now for a bit, again.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

Good day for Babcock share price.

Not so good if you work there.
https://news.sky.com/story/engineering-giant-babcock-to-cut-1-000-jobs-in-restructuring-12274072

To think I nearly sold them yesterday!  But should I sell the news?  They are one of my worst holdings and well in the red.  I was holding them to sell out higher.  Very tempted here and I may regret it but I'll hold for now.  One of the stocks I bought (but I shouldn't have) because of the limited market choice with my ISA.  One of those times I should have played with a basketball instead!  Some financials have improved but that 100% debt to equity ratio is now a big no for me (although has improved) whatever the push and net intangible assets just about exceed equity!

[Harley]

11 hours ago, PrincessDrac said:

Which miners bought H?

What are your thoughts on Fres and Poly?

I have a bit in CEY and HOC.

I can only comment about select financials because the only holes in the ground I know about are the ones I dig!  FRES have had a similar pullback, retracing most of the Jul20 run.  Not for me atm as only a 2.1% yield.  Price to book getting a bit high for tight old me but the usual stonking Current and Debt to Equity ratios.  Operating cash flow has improved but not majorly given only say £100m above 2017.  Also took on debt in 2020.  Zero balance sheet intangibles which is good to see and goes some way to forgive the Price to Book ratio.  POLY looks to me on the monthly chart like it may want to give a bit more but then has also retraced a lot.  A 6.43% yield so I'm up for that.  Price to Book getting a bit high too but at least the book contains negligible intangibles.  A far lower PE than FRES, an OK Current Ratio, but a Debt to Equity ratio of 88% which means I pass.  Nice operating cash flow growth.  So get that debt down and I'll be back!  Just the way I look at things so DYOR and make your own calls.  I guarantee the ones I bought will be dogs so you don't wanna know!  I also have some initial CEY and HOC holdings which are nicely in the red despite my system telling me they shouldn't be!

[BurntBread]

2 hours ago, leonardratso said:

re lon:kaz, gonna sell out this week, should stay solid at around £8.50, just got to wait for the 19.5p ex divi date today to be sure of gettig it i suppose;

shame really, was a good run up;

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2021/04/09/kaz-minerals-buyout-succeeds-with-higher-offer/

 

So, what happens if you hold shares in a public company, through an online brokerage, the company gets taken private, and you refuse to sell?

Are you forced to sell when the deal goes through? If not, do the shares stay listed in your account, or do you get mailed the share certificate? Does Ivan come round every year and stuff roubles through your letterbox as a dividend? Do you get invited to Moscow for the AGM and have to drink home-distilled vodka until you go blind?

[Harley]

39 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Sold out of my MOS.  Made over 100%.  That's almost 10k profit.  Incredible, really.

The dividend forecasts looked pretty weak, and as I have been reminded by you good people before, nobody ever went broke taking profits.

Now I just need some of those aussie junior miners to boom.  Holding on the sidelines now for a bit, again.

There's a lot to like about the MOS financials which is somewhat unusual for a US company these days, even with the balance sheet carrying $1.7bn of goodwill.  But the 0.64%  yield is a no for me.  Sure was better and maybe in my range at the Mar20 turn but alas I missed that.  Been a smooth ride up from the Mar20 low but now in the overbought zone.  160% increase in the share price YOY.   My system failed me on that one so I need to go away and review/tune.  Well done to you though!