Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

33 minutes ago, nirvana said:

I think lightweight is key for everything now......I want a sub 160kg motorbike.......I want a campervan that weighs less than 1500kg; impossible you may think? Just use a French car as a base....actually how about a 2CV campervan? Sounds like an interesting novelty 

That's what I like about my Harley and the various Briggs engines I have.  If you want better, build bigger and sod it, ideally with American Steel.  I have an old Briggs mower tractor and a new "woke" one.  I know which is more fun to use and will get me up a hill the best.  Loud and smelly and has a drink problem.  Sometimes you must!

 

[JMD]

4 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Cross posting this from @Long time lurking as like I have said multiple times in this thread I think it's vital to be aware of the Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and how they could change our best laid plans...

 

Yes, i think CBDC's will be a big part of that 'war footing' economy I posted about yesterday (thinking about a future 'war themed' economy in this way helps me focus or interpret on what's happening or might happen). The new CBDC's will be a kind of modern equivalent to the old ww2 ration/voucher system. But this time around it will provide government with powerful ways of controlling what is spent and how, to boost inflation in certain areas perhaps, control supply/demand, etc. I think all benefits and UBI (at some point UBI will replace benefits) will be paid out this way.

[Harley]

6 minutes ago, JMD said:

Yes, i think CBDC's will be a part of that 'war footing' economy I posted about yesterday. A kind of modern equivalent to the old ww2 ration/voucher system. But this time around it will provide government with powerful ways of controlling what is spent and how, to boost inflation in certain areas perhaps, control supply/demand, etc. I think all benefits and UBI (at some point UBI will replace benefits) will be paid out this way.

I've favoured benefits paid out on a prepaid card as they do in some countries.   And a limited list of approved items.  Drives the message home.  Sure, you can cheat, but it'll cost you.

[JMD]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

I've favoured benefits paid out on a prepaid card as they do in some countries.   And a limited list of approved items.  Drives the message home.  Sure, you can cheat, but it'll cost you.

Absolutely Harley and I agree with the point you make. Actually I don't think my 'war economy thesis' need be all bad, in fact many of the government controls we will all have to endure will be needed to prevent anarchy. It's just that 'knowing'(?) that these type of changes are coming hopefully allows us to orient our portfolios. Not sure how yet as I'm no expert, but forewarned is forearmed as they say. 

[Don Coglione]

23 minutes ago, Harley said:

That's what I like about my Harley and the various Briggs engines I have.  If you want better, build bigger and sod it, ideally with American Steel.  I have an old Briggs mower tractor and a new "woke" one.  I know which is more fun to use and will get me up a hill the best.  Loud and smelly and has a drink problem.  Sometimes you must!

 

Oi! I resemble that remark!

[Harley]

19 minutes ago, JMD said:

my 'war economy thesis'

It's a superb way to look at things at the current time.  I need to read up on what that was really like in practice, say in WW2, to as you say, be forewardned and forearmed.

[Harley]

19 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Oi! I resemble that remark!

I could equally have said honest (WYSIWYG), hard working, and up for some fun!

[JimmyTheBruce]

6 hours ago, Harley said:

Revenge of the white van man!

Sellers market if you're a tradesman.  There's also been a move to higher material prices but better discounts if you ask, etc.  Customer never sees these when times are good.  Me, I'll only do places flying the Union Jack.  If you remember that Labour polo a few years back.  Revenge is a dish best served cold!

The piggy-faced one with a common name to hide her aristocratic background.  She was truly hateful.

I don't get paid a massive amount but I've often said that it seems unfair that I sit on my arse all day pressing keys whilst skilled tradesmen have to do a hard day's graft.  Such noble altruism seems to fade when I'm presented with a fuckin giant quote.  Bit like those folks who love immigration until they're asked if Abdul can come and live in the spare room....

I do try to do stuff in the house myself.  There's no excuse not to with everything that's available via Google.  But I tend to suffer from what my day job calls 'scope creep.'  For my last effort the other half left me fixing a wobbly toilet seat and came back to find the bathroom suite in the garden, the floor up, and one wall demolished.  It was 6 months until that room was back in action.  Good job she's more patient than me.

[MrXxxx]

4 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

But I tend to suffer from what my day job calls 'scope creep.'  For my last effort the other half left me fixing a wobbly toilet seat and came back to find the bathroom suite in the garden, the floor up, and one wall demolished.  It was 6 months until that room was back in action.  Good job she's more patient than me.

Tradesmen [and their long-suffering partners) are not any different....my Aunt waited 10 years for her kitchen to be completely finished by my Uncle who's a builder ! :-)))

[Loki]

12 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Tradesmen [and their long-suffering partners) are not any different....my Aunt waited 10 years for her kitchen to be completely finished by my Uncle who's a builder ! :-)))

Paying customers get priority 

[Harley]

23 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Tradesmen [and their long-suffering partners) are not any different....my Aunt waited 10 years for her kitchen to be completely finished by my Uncle who's a builder ! :-)))

Everything at work is naturally work in progress and I do bring my work home with me!  The real reason though is I just do what I like, when I like, and how I like.  It's a curse I tell you.  Plus being an ex I'm no Steady Eddie and like to wait until it needs that heroic 10% of hell to finish it.  Pretty much faffed around all day as I had the BBC Weather forecast to blame, although there was a spot of rain when I tried so banged that on it's head.  Double time tomorrow, unless something more interesting comes along!  Took me many hard years to not give an eff!

[Harley]

11 minutes ago, Loki said:

Paying customers get priority 

And those who know how to ask and make a cup of tea get Elite status!

[Harley]

26 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Tradesmen [and their long-suffering partners) are not any different....my Aunt waited 10 years for her kitchen to be completely finished by my Uncle who's a builder ! :-)))

I have loads to do but what's the point when you know some other wonker's going to rip it all out too in a few years! 

[Don Coglione]

2 hours ago, nirvana said:

I think lightweight is key for everything now......I want a sub 160kg motorbike.......I want a campervan that weighs less than 1500kg; impossible you may think? Just use a French car as a base....actually how about a 2CV campervan? Sounds like an interesting novelty 

Be getting thee one of these:

https://www.husqvarna-motorcycles.com/en-gb/models/vitpilen/vitpilen-701-2020.html

[Don Coglione]

46 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

 For my last effort the other half left me fixing a wobbly toilet seat and came back to find the bathroom suite in the garden, the floor up, and one wall demolished.  It was 6 months until that room was back in action.  Good job she's more patient than me.

Christ, I would struggle to go 6 hours without a shit, never mind 6 months!

[AWW]

1 hour ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Be getting thee one of these:

https://www.husqvarna-motorcycles.com/en-gb/models/vitpilen/vitpilen-701-2020.html

There I was thinking they only made axes!

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

Paying customers get priority 

And he certainly paid for it...ten years of nagging! :-) :-):-)

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Harley said:

It's a superb way to look at things at the current time.  I need to read up on what that was really like in practice, say in WW2, to as you say, be forewardned and forearmed.

After writing it i think war economy thesis may sound a bit melodramatic, but anyway I'm really just channelling Copley, from his book - The New Total War of the 21st Century. In terms of reading I'd recommend it, as Copley has a good handle on history and uses it to good effect to frame his predictions for the looming politico-economic shanannigans that lay await for us all!

[JMD]

12 hours ago, feed said:

 

I prefer democracy, but I would think hard currency and democracy are probably ultimately incompatible.
That’s the reason we have moved to soft currencies to allow this form of wealth redistribution.

I know this is more what happens after this cycle.  But it starts now, politically, it takes a decade to move populations.  
 

Overall I agree with that sentiment. But my thoughts are I don't think hard money and democracy need be incompatible. If the US (I know it's a republic, not a democracy), but if its founding fathers had stipulated hard money in their constitution then the country would still have its gold standard... Maybe it's (so called) democracies (whatever they are?) and constitutions that are incompatible!? - I'm serious, 'democracy' is a very nebulous concept. Instead, It is the settled rules and constraints that are the decisive factors. 'Democracy' im afraid is a political weapon of mass distraction!                                                                                                           Property rights, rule of law, (the rights/freedoms eventually codified within) The English bill of rights, covers most of what's needed. Hard code all these things on the Blockchain and youd have something epic!! 

[JMD]

The great Felix Zulauf. Brilliant description of our 'new normal' economic paradigm. Well worth the hour listen.

[nirvana]

14 hours ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Be getting thee one of these:

https://www.husqvarna-motorcycles.com/en-gb/models/vitpilen/vitpilen-701-2020.html

christ it's a single

downsizing does work, I have something with 3 cylinders and it goes quite well 

 

[CVG]

Quick shout. Does anyone have a HL ISA? I just did a routine check and my account shows most of my Share positions closed down to about £20 each!!! An apparent loss of £XX K. Transaction history doesn't reflect that so it must be a software glitch. Anyone else?

[AWW]

7 hours ago, JMD said:

Maybe it's (so called) democracies (whatever they are?) and constitutions that are incompatible!?

Exactly this, as it makes it very difficult for the demos to change the existing, sacred rules.

This is one of the things that will eventually lead to the collapse of the EU.

[Noallegiance]

7 hours ago, JMD said:

Overall I agree with that sentiment. But my thoughts are I don't think hard money and democracy need be incompatible. If the US (I know it's a republic, not a democracy), but if its founding fathers had stipulated hard money in their constitution then the country would still have its gold standard... Maybe it's (so called) democracies (whatever they are?) and constitutions that are incompatible!? - I'm serious, 'democracy' is a very nebulous concept. Instead, It is the settled rules and constraints that are the decisive factors. 'Democracy' im afraid is a political weapon of mass distraction!                                                                                                           Property rights, rule of law, (the rights/freedoms eventually codified within) The English bill of rights, covers most of what's needed. Hard code all these things on the Blockchain and youd have something epic!! 

Hard money is in the US constitution. It's the only constitutional currency.

So any time a comical US politician tries to upend another by claiming they're being 'unconstitutional', laugh because every single one of them advocates highly unconstitutional behaviour every minute of every day.

Democracy is also just a fancy word for mob rule. It's the very reason why we traded fast-moving musket balls with the fledgling US. And why, following breaking away from the commonwealth, America was the go-to land for freedom and choice for a century. No corporate tax. No income tax. That is until the left infiltrated it and started clamping down on people in the name of freedom.

Now, there is nowhere left to run. 

[Loki]

21 minutes ago, CVG said:

Quick shout. Does anyone have a HL ISA? I just did a routine check and my account shows most of my Share positions closed down to about £20 each!!! An apparent loss of £XX K. Transaction history doesn't reflect that so it must be a software glitch. Anyone else?

All looks fine for me on the app