Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

It is listed on II, although annoyingly the custodian is Citibank.  ADR's can be useful, but not if you don't want added exposure to the US financial system on top of the company itself.

I'm tempted just to pick up the main Madrid listing of Telephonica (which was itself mentioned earlier in the thread).  

I've decided to hold a small percentage of my portfolio in any one stock so am happy to take the risk, but I totally get your point.  As a rule ADRs, etc are a no for me but here we have no direct access to the Brazilian exchange, not even via Interactive Brokers.  Some form of exchange controls?  I read in the WHT blurb something about all investments having to be registered with the authorities, etc.  Or maybe I should go with an active trust (not in favour of passive ETFs, especially here).

PS:  I screened the Brazil market (c.549 stocks) direct with some pretty laid back fundamental data and came up with very little, especially if I took out those already having had a great run up.  Maybe mostly a currency play or combine into an emerging market collective (e.g. ETF)?

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Rave said:

 

Not having a go at all, just trying to make the point using some humorous sarcasm that a lot of supposed objections to LVT, like the idea that people could somehow 'hide' land, don't actually make much or any sense when you dig into them a bit .

Thanks Rave, i like to think about these ideas now and again. And do think it helps inform my macro (investment) thinking (ie what major policy shifts could happen?). My only problem is the pure focus on land, you say yourself once created a LVT would cause many land holding values to plumit. Also taxing land would just make other assets go up in value.

I have no problem with wealth taxes, as i think it is one of the major preventative solutions to stop future social chaos - but why not tax all the many forms of both unproductive and productive assets, from gold to robots(!?), and everything inbetween, including land, property, stocks. That might sound radical, but given the changing nature of work (automation, etc), and the future risk of authoritarian government (cbdc's, etc), i'm coming round to thinking that the continual reliance on the taxing of both work and spending is scarily and glaringly feudal (or is that just me being dystopian?, i'm not really btw).

[JMD]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

CIG and ELP.I like Red Electrica as well as a play on SA,but its got a bit too much debt.

Red Electrica... isn't that a video nasty from the 80's?

[M S E Refugee]

Does anyone think that Vaccine failure could trigger the Big Kahuna?

A few highly Vaxxed Countries are seeing a surge in cases.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, M S E Refugee said:

Does anyone think that Vaccine failure could trigger the Big Kahuna?

A few highly Vaxxed Countries are seeing a surge in cases.

Already posted about it, somewhere.  Just putting David Hunter's forecast together with it being a convenient excuse for a huge bust.  My own un-quantifiable hunch about the vaccines being more than they are letting on is a variable in the equation.

 

[MrXxxx]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

Maybe the expert traders here (btw not a critisicm of  others, i know my own limits) think it a bit clunkey/mickey mouse

There is no one more expert than me when it comes to investing my money....and no one more stupid when it comes to losing it! :-) 

[Bricormortis]

MSE....it depends whether they see a surge in hospitilisations and death. Infections per se are not a problem they just get you closer to herd immunity.  Bound to be a dampner of sorts if vaccines dont prevent hospitalizations,  no one knows about BK obviously. Will we still be waiting for it in 2023 even ? As has been said elsewhere Archegos went down with 30 billion of other peoples money and the markets did not even blink.

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

What you're doing with adding (truly) actively managed investment trusts to a portfolio is diversifying your strategies and mitigating the risk you're wrong.  It will cost in terms of fees, the risk they screw up, and missing that hot stock you just know you would have timed the most perfect of entries and exits!  But insurance costs.  How much insurance you need is a personal decision and depends where you are on your investment journey.  It depends on how you view a performance gain as for every gain there is an equal loss somewhere in some form to be avoided.  Not sure how easy it is to find the signals (my data provider doesn't provide them) plus there's the question of discounts and premiums.  Trusts have a good place for most.  MoneyWeek likes them and keeps a portfolio going.  Personally, I would primarily use Trusts as part of a de-risking strategy and is something I really should do as I don't see a future for passive (whole market, not necessarily sector) ETFs.

No harm in setting aside funds for investing in training!  Personally I would never sign up to a service that just feeds me trades, except maybe as an education and so I know what's out there rather than wondering all the time.  But will they ever share their secrets?  I've subbed to a few things in the past but nothing had much value for me except the more macro stuff and the sharing of thoughts and ideas.  DOSBODS is cheap.  Additionally open a new thread or two?  You could start with a momentum one.  Or just ramble on here.  People can skip.  For me, it's helpful just to write things down, and any constructive feedback is just a bonus.  Most people aren't jerks.

Frustrating markets with all this liquidity in that most stuff is overbought and higher risk.  IMO that Zulaf Real Vision interview posted was right that we've had that first phase up when being asked where to invest now.  Better for trading but with a higher risk, depending on what you're trying to achieve.  Harder to invest when markets are like this and you only have a few entry points as an investor.  But we are moving from passive to active.  Some notable investors are saying it's crazy to do anything other than trade these markets atm.  So is it you or the market?  My performance is relatively shite (I assume!), but I'm only trying to generate income and preserve capital.  Too late and risky for me to trade too much.  It's worse going to the risk zone trying to make something out of nothing.  As one guy said once, sometimes better to get the basketball out!  TBH I do this stuff more because I love it and what it teaches me than any other reason.  Just remember survivor bias and how very few fund managers, etc stay at the top.  Play the long game?

Not too granular at all.  For some here maybe but others probably understand.  Funny as I've spent the day stepping back and looking at what I'm doing and decided to pare back my activities to free up time for other meaningful things.  Setting unrealistic and complex targets just stresses me out.  KISS it Harley!  That's key - you need to diversify not just your portfolio!  Whatever you do, it pays to step back from your chosen system(s) and validate they are working for you personally or if there are any tweaks that could be made.  That's part of the humility and acceptance of the constantly moving target we are trying to chase.

I've run several strategies at the same time, although you can over diversify (there is a personal "bliss point").  I did this to see which ones fitted me the best and to access several different risk levels (low for my floor funds, higher for my upside funds).  Nothing wrong with that as long as you know which hat you're wearing at any time and have the time to properly execute (I don't).  Always important to know what your objectives are so you stay consistent and with the chosen risk level.  Choosing strategies is like finding a suit(s) that fits.  Takes time and you need to kick the wheels in real life.  Some strategies work better for some people than others.  The important thing is to have one that you feel comfortable with and have confidence in, and above all stay consistent with.  Consistency is key to performance because like the double glazing cold caller, you have to invest in a number of duff calls before you hit gold.  Most edges are small so need plenty of volume (or time), and consistency is one of the better edges.

There is a clear order for diversification and that is asset allocations first and portfolios second.  So many jump straight to the glitter of specific stocks.  You need to have all your framework set out first according to what you're trying to achieve.  I'm trying to preserve capital so have not made out like a bandit but then haven't lost loads I would never have the time to get back.  Good luck to those that have, and even more luck to those that have but shouldn't!  For me it's something like the Permanent Portfolio.  The asset classes take turns riding point but net they hopefully keep you ahead in a Steady Eddie way.  But it's not actually that easy at this time.  The the validity/identification of the traditional asset classes are (and should be) challenged and same for past allocation models given the pervasive liquidity, etc.  Plus the apparent break down of traditional correlations between classes (e.g. bonds versus equity).  That's the area I've been focusing on because that's the most important.  It all seems up in the air atm.  Maybe a BK will reset the system back to a more normal, albeit different one? 

You can tell if someone has a handle on the big picture if they can tell you their required rate of return and they demonstrably work their risk to it.  That's the visible top of a large iceberg of personal financial planning work.  Like why would someone who had worked out (financial projection/plan, etc) that they will have enough capital to live off at say 1% return net take on risk of 10%, or vice versa?

You're taking a step back and having a think.  That's never time wasted.   Lots of rambling on my part, purely my personal thoughts and BS (DYOBS!), but I needed a break and to give time for the US to settle down and let the manics do their stuff!

Thanks Harley, many many good points you make, and which i take on board. I think i will end up trying a momentum strategy, and the fund based ones reduce risk. Actually the BAN guy you linked to would be my ideal method as i would like to include some options trading with the momentum trade (options would be totally new to me but you can set your own level of options risk-profile so can gently 'build into it' with experience). Unfortunately BAN is US focused so will have to settle for the lower 12% returns from the UK offerings, as opposed to the 30%++ he was achieving (he mentions consistently thrashing the Nasdaq, which i think is averaging 28%). The other part of this for me is utilising an investment approach that can produce 'CGT free income' (current allowance is 12,300, bit ambitious i know), but the prospect of finding ways to to produce investment income without paying tax is almost irresistible(!), still requires more thought though, but worth investigating.     

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Majorpain said:

It is listed on II, although annoyingly the custodian is Citibank.  ADR's can be useful, but not if you don't want added exposure to the US financial system on top of the company itself.

I'm tempted just to pick up the main Madrid listing of Telephonica (which was itself mentioned earlier in the thread).  

I looked at the top shareholders for VIV and Telefonica Spain was not listed.  Do they actually own it?

Interestingly I could buy the TIMB ADR in my SIPP but not VIV.  One reason for VIV may be it's not an ADR for a company on a recognised exchange.  But that should apply to TIMB too.  Anyways, I bought elsewhere.

[Lightscribe]

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/reimagining-policy-making-for-4ir-closing-speech
 

What a lovely speech from Mr.Hancock giving us the heads up

 

[M S E Refugee]

1 hour ago, Bricormortis said:

MSE....it depends whether they see a surge in hospitilisations and death. Infections per se are not a problem they just get you closer to herd immunity.  Bound to be a dampner of sorts if vaccines dont prevent hospitalizations,  no one knows about BK obviously. Will we still be waiting for it in 2023 even ? As has been said elsewhere Archegos went down with 30 billion of other peoples money and the markets did not even blink.

Infections ought not to be a problem but we are living in Covid Clown World where a significant amount of idiots think that it is worse than Ebola, in fact given a choice some of them would rather have Ebola than the dreaded Covid-19.

If the press start reporting that Vaccines are failing then who knows what could happen, it could be a catalyst for the Big Kahuna.

 

 

[Majorpain]

57 minutes ago, Harley said:

I looked at the top shareholders for VIV and Telefonica Spain was not listed.  Do they actually own it?

Interestingly I could buy the TIMB ADR in my SIPP but not VIV.  One reason for VIV may be it's not an ADR for a company on a recognised exchange.  But that should apply to TIMB too.  Anyways, I bought elsewhere.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telefônica_Brasil

99% sure they do, its not often my google-fu fails me!

[M S E Refugee]

13 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/reimagining-policy-making-for-4ir-closing-speech
 

What a lovely speech from Mr.Hancock giving us the heads up

 

I'm not sure these dangerous weirdo's are going to get their own way now that they have shown their hand.

Even the Mumsnetters have heard of Klaus's warped gang of control freaks and they aren't impressed at all.

 

[Loki]

17 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/reimagining-policy-making-for-4ir-closing-speech
 

What a lovely speech from Mr.Hancock giving us the heads up

 

 

Quote

 

The internet can be used to spread terrorist material; it can be a tool for abuse and bullying; and, it can undermine civil discourse, objective news and intellectual property.

The digital revolution has changed the way that people behave and interact.

Instead of a piecemeal response to each issue separately, our response is the Digital Charter, which the Prime Minister will be setting out in her speech later today.

This is a rolling programme of work to agree a consistent set of norms and rules for the online world and put them into practice.

In some cases this will be through shifting our expectations of behaviour; in others we may need new laws or regulations.

Our starting point will be that we will have the same rights and expect the same behaviour online as we do offline.

The Charter’s core purpose is to make the internet work for everyone – for citizens, businesses and society as a whole.

It will move the philosophy we apply to the Internet from libertarian to liberal values - to cherish freedom, but not the freedom to harm others.

The Charter brings together a broad, ongoing programme, with priority areas including protecting people from online harms, sorting out platform liability and leading on data ethics.

And I want us to practise what we preach about agile governance. It will be a ‘living’ document that sits online - and as technology changes, the Charter will evolve too.

 

 

That entire document should be alarming to anyone who can read into what they are saying 

[Loki]

Just now, M S E Refugee said:

I'm not sure these dangerous weirdo's are going to get their own way now that they have shown their hand.

Even the Mumsnetters have heard of Klaus's warped gang of control freaks and they aren't impressed at all.

 

They went along with it all up till now and ignored Covidiot conspiracy theorists.  

"Klaus" and his mob are always one step ahead.  The mumsnormies will just lap up whatever they throw out next.  I wonder if Blofeld  Klaus is even a distraction. I mean come on.  Look at him.

Look here, don't look here, as Mannarino likes to say.

[sancho panza]

via an interesting macrovoices podcast accompanying chartdeck

there's a bit in this when Jesse felder talks about rising IR's,rising oil prices and rising dollar is a good trifecta predictor of an earnings recession.

https://www.macrovoices.com/962-macrovoices-266-jesse-felder-macro-roadmap-for-the-s-p500

[M S E Refugee]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

They went along with it all up till now and ignored Covidiot conspiracy theorists.  

"Klaus" and his mob are always one step ahead.  The mumsnormies will just lap up whatever they throw out next.  I wonder if Blofeld  Klaus is even a distraction. I mean come on.  Look at him.

Look here, don't look here, as Mannarino likes to say.

Klaus is just a puppet, this cunt is the Capo dei capi.

[geordie_lurch]

3 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Does anyone think that Vaccine failure could trigger the Big Kahuna?

A few highly Vaxxed Countries are seeing a surge in cases.

That all depends on what TPTB see as a failure doesn't it... would a load of vaccinated plebs suddenly increasing 'cases' or even dying and a new 'vaccine' booster being needed later this year be a failure for them and their mates at the WEF and big pharma

The fact your are seeing the link between highly vaccinated countries and a surge in 'cases' should tell you everything.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I looked at the top shareholders for VIV and Telefonica Spain was not listed.  Do they actually own it?

Interestingly I could buy the TIMB ADR in my SIPP but not VIV.  One reason for VIV may be it's not an ADR for a company on a recognised exchange.  But that should apply to TIMB too.  Anyways, I bought elsewhere.

Your probably looking at holders of the ADRs ,Telefonica Spain own 70% of the equity i think.

[sancho panza]

Not really news to your average basement dweller but still the pictures are pretty.

But,but.....GDP numbers are up..'we're all in this together'..

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/04/12/i-now-track-the-most-important-measure-in-the-feds-vision-of-the-economy-the-wealth-effect-and-how-it-impacts-americans-individually/

Today we will see the per-capita progress of that wealth effect – what it means and what it accomplishes – based on the Fed’s wealth distribution data through Q4 2020, and based on Census Bureau estimates for the US population over the years. Here are some key results. At the end of 2020, the per-capita wealth (assets minus debts) of:

• The 1% = $11.7 million per person (green);
• The next 9% = $1.6 million per person (blue);
• The 50% to 90% = $42,083 per person (red line at the bottom).
• The bottom 50% = $15,027 per person. That amount of wealth is so small it doesn’t show up on this per-capita chart that is on a scale of wealth that accommodates the 1%.

 

[sancho panza]

BoC goes for  the full BoJ.

All that's missing is some Green Energy ETF's.

 

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/04/06/bank-of-canada-holdings-government-of-canada-bonds-rise-to-40-percent-total-outstanding-fed-a-saint-in-comparison-taper-on-table/

the Bank of Canada’s ballooning holdings of Government of Canada (GoC) bonds, which will hit a stunning 40% of all GoC bonds outstanding this Friday.

By comparison, the Fed holds 17.6% of all Treasury securities outstanding: It holds $4.94 trillion in Treasury securities, of $28.1 Trillion outstanding. We – that’s the universal “we,” meaning “a few of us” – complain about the Fed’s crazy buying of Treasury securities and all the distortion and craziness this causes. But compared to the Bank of Canada, the Fed looks like a saint.

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Klaus is just a puppet, this cunt is the Capo dei capi.

Not sure, who’s the final boss?

 

 

[Harley]

5 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Does anyone think that Vaccine failure could trigger the Big Kahuna?

A few highly Vaxxed Countries are seeing a surge in cases.

The market will BK when it wants to BK and people will retrofit the reason why later!

[Harley]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

Thanks Harley, many many good points you make, and which i take on board. I think i will end up trying a momentum strategy, and the fund based ones reduce risk. Actually the BAN guy you linked to would be my ideal method as i would like to include some options trading with the momentum trade (options would be totally new to me but you can set your own level of options risk-profile so can gently 'build into it' with experience). Unfortunately BAN is US focused so will have to settle for the lower 12% returns from the UK offerings, as opposed to the 30%++ he was achieving (he mentions consistently thrashing the Nasdaq, which i think is averaging 28%). The other part of this for me is utilising an investment approach that can produce 'CGT free income' (current allowance is 12,300, bit ambitious i know), but the prospect of finding ways to to produce investment income without paying tax is almost irresistible(!), still requires more thought though, but worth investigating.     

If I had time I would go for the BAN with options on US ETFs.  I've wanted to get back into options but I have too many other fab things to do atm like learning to weld.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

They went along with it all up till now and ignored Covidiot conspiracy theorists.  

"Klaus" and his mob are always one step ahead.  The mumsnormies will just lap up whatever they throw out next.  I wonder if Blofeld  Klaus is even a distraction. I mean come on.  Look at him.

Look here, don't look here, as Mannarino likes to say.

Some groups seem to run on mass from one side of the ship to the other and panic it's always listing!