Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Tingles]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Anyone got any plans to try and get some Coinbase Global Inc shares after their IPO tomorrow? I think it will race higher as it's actually a rare profitable tech company and an interesting hedge on the Crypto space given it makes it's money from transaction fees.

Tempted due to the direct listing and because it's an NWO company with strong FED ties.  Conversely, happy to stay on the cash sidelines due to the BK possibility which could provide the opportunity to get in later and cheaper.  It's a difficult one as I am currently actively reducing my exposure to equities/funds.

[geordie_lurch]

Yes important to mention it is the first major direct listing to take place on the Nasdaq too.

[Barnsey]

4 hours ago, PrincessDrac said:

US CPI  Link

 

March #CPI slightly stronger than expected at 2.6% y/y vs. 2.5% est. & 1.7% in prior month; core at 1.6% y/y vs. 1.5% est. & 1.3% in prior month

 

 

Couple others...

 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

I can quite easily see a suspension of the vaccine rollout in western counties leading to the BK. I think eventually a continuous updatable mRNA vaccine program will be put in place instead.

Problem is if the big blast off of opening the global economy doesn’t happen, it could be the trigger to blast it the other way.

 

Sooner or later they'll just say its just another flu virus and you plebs under 75 shall not be needing these vaccinations forevermore.

A planet in permanent fear will create a "Permanent Kahuna". 

[Lightscribe]

8 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Sooner or later they'll just say its just another flu virus and you plebs under 75 shall not be needing these vaccinations forevermore.

A planet in permanent fear will create a "Permanent Kahuna". 

And there lies the pivot point. Some people believe we will see ‘normal’ again, some people believe this is the start of the ‘new normal’.

[Hancock]

11 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

And there lies the pivot point. Some people believe we will see ‘normal’ again, some people believe this is the start of the ‘new normal’.

I believe its the latter, but there must be many varieties of the "new normal".

I think we'll get a dystopian new normal, where many people like me are more afraid of our govt, than bedwetters are of Covid.

 

[Lightscribe]

9 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I believe its the latter, but there must be many varieties of the "new normal".

I think we'll get a dystopian new normal, where many people like me are more afraid of our govt, than bedwetters are of Covid.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/pentagon-covid-microchip-blood-virus-b1830372.html
 

well I for one will be opting out... 

[Iamcynical]

7 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/pentagon-covid-microchip-blood-virus-b1830372.html
 

well I for one will be opting out... 

But why ?

It's totally for your benefit.  The government cares about you and wants to keep you safe from harm..

Trust the government..

[JimmyTheBruce]

8 hours ago, Hancock said:

Up 43% now (it was 45% when i started typing), my holding is up about 15% so will hold on to see how this one goes.

Sunak's going to be getting his cheque book out for military equipment in the coming year, may help get back to where they were several years ago.

I managed to pick some up at 2 quid, which is about as close to a bottom that I've ever managed to get.... [insert cheap bum joke here].  Didn't buy a great amount so I think I'll just hold on for the ride.

Next year Rodders....

[Rave]

8 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Recent studies also show that those with both Pfizer doses are more eight times more at risk to the South African variant than unvaccinated. 

https://www.foxnews.com/health/israel-covid-19-study-south-africa-variant-pfizer-vaccine.amp

Having had two doses of Pfizer the idea that it makes me 8 times more prone to catching the SA variant alarmed me somewhat, so I thought I'd better click on your link to see if it's true.

And fortunately it's not. In fact it's total bollocks.

What the study actually found was that, of 400 people who have been vaccinated and yet still contracted covid, 5%, so presumably a grand total of 22 people, had the SA variant. They then compared that with 400 people who had not been vaccinated and caught covid, and found that only 0.7% of them had the SA variant.

What the study, which by the way hasn't yet been peer reviewed, does not seem to have concerned itself with is any attempt to compare the covid infection rates of people who have been vaccinated with people who have not. Even if you accept that the study has been done properly and that you can get meaningful results from such small numbers, all that can be inferred from it is that the Pfizer vaccine is less effective at preventing infection by the SA variant than it is at preventing infection by other variants. There is absolutely nothing in it at all to suggest that it increases the SA variant infection rate by 8 times.

Now I have no particular axe to grind here; obviously I have had the vaccine but I really don't particularly care if other people make an informed choice not to get it. The problem I have is that if people misinterpret scientific studies and then post their misinterpretation on the internet as fact, then that makes it harder for other people to make an informed choice. And pretty much all the studies I've seen show that the Pfizer vaccine, while expensive to buy and store, is both highly effective and as safe as you can reasonably expect a vaccine to be. If someone didn't take it based on your misinterpretation of a study that's pretty limited to start with, I think that would be a bit off, frankly.

And so because of that, rather than just to be a prick, I feel justified in doing the following.

@geordie_lurch @invalid @The Idiocrat @Fully Detached @sancho panza Please be aware that the above post which you marked as 'informative' completely misinterprets the scientific study it links to.

[Lightscribe]

12 minutes ago, Rave said:

Having had two doses of Pfizer the idea that it makes me 8 times more prone to catching the SA variant alarmed me somewhat, so I thought I'd better click on your link to see if it's true.

And fortunately it's not. In fact it's total bollocks.

What the study actually found was that, of 400 people who have been vaccinated and yet still contracted covid, 5%, so presumably a grand total of 22 people, had the SA variant. They then compared that with 400 people who had not been vaccinated and caught covid, and found that only 0.7% of them had the SA variant.

What the study, which by the way hasn't yet been peer reviewed, does not seem to have concerned itself with is any attempt to compare the covid infection rates of people who have been vaccinated with people who have not. Even if you accept that the study has been done properly and that you can get meaningful results from such small numbers, all that can be inferred from it is that the Pfizer vaccine is less effective at preventing infection by the SA variant than it is at preventing infection by other variants. There is absolutely nothing in it at all to suggest that it increases the SA variant infection rate by 8 times.

Now I have no particular axe to grind here; obviously I have had the vaccine but I really don't particularly care if other people make an informed choice not to get it. The problem I have is that if people misinterpret scientific studies and then post their misinterpretation on the internet as fact, then that makes it harder for other people to make an informed choice. And pretty much all the studies I've seen show that the Pfizer vaccine, while expensive to buy and store, is both highly effective and as safe as you can reasonably expect a vaccine to be. If someone didn't take it based on your misinterpretation of a study that's pretty limited to start with, I think that would be a bit off, frankly.

And so because of that, rather than just to be a prick, I feel justified in doing the following.

@geordie_lurch @invalid @The Idiocrat @Fully Detached @sancho panza Please be aware that the above post which you marked as 'informative' completely misinterprets the scientific study it links to.

Yes I can see it’s yet to be peer reviewed, it says it in the article. I was merely linking to to it and repeated what it stated within it. Pretty much everyone here is very apt at doing their own research.

I don’t want to turn this into a Covid or vaccination thread, there’s plenty of other threads on here for that.

The reasoning behind the post was in response to other comments stating that any further suspensions/reviews/age group suitably etc , could delay the global economy bouncing back as quickly as expected, thus providing the catalyst for the BK event we have speculated on.

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, Rave said:

The problem I have is that if people misinterpret scientific studies and then post their misinterpretation on the internet as fact, then that makes it harder for other people to make an informed choice.

The Media misrepresent a lot of things, hence why we need to encourage the critical thinking skills in the populus that you have demonstrated, not media control of `perceived` fake news. As for its relevance, whether it `fake`/misinterpreted or not, it can still move the market hence its importance, I don't recall anyone saying you had to believe it?

[M S E Refugee]

I am not sure how to play this as it looks nailed on that we are heading for a lockdown this Winter.

Johnson and Trudeau have both indicated that Lockdowns are more effective than the vaccines.

[Loki]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I am not sure how to play this as it looks nailed on that we are heading for a lockdown this Winter.

Johnson and Trudeau have both indicated that Lockdowns are more effective than the vaccines.

There's our BK catalyst then

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I am not sure how to play this as it looks nailed on that we are heading for a lockdown this Winter.

Johnson and Trudeau have both indicated that Lockdowns are more effective than the vaccines.

Funny has fuck

[M S E Refugee]

Just now, stokiescum said:

Funny has fuck

I hope the UK population will grow a pair and end this madness.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

The Media misrepresent a lot of things, hence why we need to encourage the critical thinking skills in the populus that you have demonstrated, not media control of `perceived` fake news. As for its relevance, whether it `fake`/misinterpreted or not, it can still move the market hence its importance, I don't recall anyone saying you had to believe it?

Exactly the same for finance and investing.  Sure listen but DYOBFR!  And the best narrative of all this whateverdemic stuff I've listened to has come from the financial community.

[King Penda]

2 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I hope the UK population will grow a pair and end this madness.

No chance they love it other than a mask in supermarkets and 1 2 week period off school for the lad I’ve been lucky and unaffected mainly.no tests or jabs.the biggest cause for concern has been my weight gain which is my fault and the obvious clinical depression in lots of friends

[Harley]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I am not sure how to play this as it looks nailed on that we are heading for a lockdown this Winter.

Johnson and Trudeau have both indicated that Lockdowns are more effective than the vaccines.

We're in a lull.  Looks like an agenda is indeed being played out unless this is just rearranging the bodies before an enquiry. Your finances may be next up.  Regulation, capital controls, tax changes, etc.  Be prepared.

[DurhamBorn]

27 minutes ago, Harley said:

We're in a lull.  Looks like an agenda is indeed being played out unless this is just rearranging the bodies before an enquiry. Your finances may be next up.  Regulation, capital controls, tax changes, etc.  Be prepared.

Its more your area than mine Harley,but something doesnt smell right does it.In one way it points to what i expected in them needing a huge excuse to boost investment spending and kick in reflation,but there seems more.The fact corporates seem to be more interested in woke than shareholders etc.

Regulation can destroy,or should we say transfer capital in an instant and as you say is growing into a huge risk.

[Majorpain]

21 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

No chance they love it other than a mask in supermarkets and 1 2 week period off school for the lad I’ve been lucky and unaffected mainly.no tests or jabs.the biggest cause for concern has been my weight gain which is my fault and the obvious clinical depression in lots of friends

Yes, lots of free money from the furlough and hiding at home in the garden has been a massive increase in the standard of living for lots of people.  The piper needs to be paid at some point though, it will be distinctly less pleasant when the inflation genie inevitably comes out of his bottle.

[King Penda]

34 minutes ago, Harley said:

We're in a lull.  Looks like an agenda is indeed being played out unless this is just rearranging the bodies before an enquiry. Your finances may be next up.  Regulation, capital controls, tax changes, etc.  Be prepared.

Would be funny if they went Greek on us and limited cash withdrawals 

[King Penda]

7 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Yes, lots of free money from the furlough and hiding at home in the garden has been a massive increase in the standard of living for lots of people.  The piper needs to be paid at some point though, it will be distinctly less pleasant when the inflation genie inevitably comes out of his bottle.

When furlow ends lots are in for a surprise 

[M S E Refugee]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its more your area than mine Harley,but something doesnt smell right does it.In one way it points to what i expected in them needing a huge excuse to boost investment spending and kick in reflation,but there seems more.The fact corporates seem to be more interested in woke than shareholders etc.

Regulation can destroy,or should we say transfer capital in an instant and as you say is growing into a huge risk.

Do you think they have any intention of opening up the economy in the near future?

[geordie_lurch]

5 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Would be funny if they went Greek on us and limited cash withdrawals 

People would just accept it as they can use their cards... then they will swap your standard £s to CBDC digital pounds (plebs only, at least at first) and that's when the real fun starts as it will all be tracked and some of it will come with restrictions such as where you can spend it and how long you can selfishly 'hoard ' it