Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Dollar turn, a couple of days after @DurhamBorn reiterates his call:

 

Sweet. I've added EWZ as another play on a dollar drop, Brazil still looks very cheap. 

Thats my play at the moment for dollar weakness,Brazil.Dollars will be sold to buy assets in other currency as the world opens up.Fed wont use rates to taper and dollar looks likely to weaken across most of the main trading partner currencies.Its the dollar going below 87 that will start to worry the Fed and i dont think they will taper much at all until that point.

US yields will fall and inflation increase for the next few months and that should see dollar lower.

[nirvana]

I'll let you into another secret  draw lines.....I've mentioned this value before for WTI.....there's a magnet at the 60.66 level from a long time ago....look how's it's behaving now 

 

[nirvana]

and it's fecking obvious on cable too....maybe you need to have special eyes 

 

[nirvana]

Nasdaq is breaking lower....all in 

[nirvana]

see this line? I drew mine even before the puter had drawn his......the shrimps have been talking to me today, it's fookin A!

 

[leonardratso]

prawns.

'oi did not fuck  thet prawn, keffer!'

 

[Loki]

What is going on in this thread?!

[leonardratso]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

What is going on in this thread?!

someone got stoned and talked to prawns from space or other.

TRIPitaka on the ways to nirvana with pigsy, sandy and monkey.

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, Vendetta said:

I am very pleased with my early purchases of BP and RDSB from April 2020 onwards (based on info gleaned from here). Laddered down and caught the bottom on both - to average out at about 250p and 961p respectively.

Long term holds for tax free dividends.

I have just picked up some HEFL and BAE (see ISA thread). Again just looking at dividend income. 
 

Anyway the question I have is that....

if I am buying GOLD, SILVER or COMMODITY ETFs or funds .....then am I right in thinking I should just buy outside my ISA - as these investments offer no yield - and the chances of generating capital gain profit in a single year and going above my/our annual CGT allowance is minimal?  Best to use ISA allowance for dividend generating stocks?
 

I still haven’t worked out how much I can put in my SIPP annually (as I have a final salary public sector pension and don’t want to go above thresholds). 

Currently will continue to use ISA allowances for me, wife and kids. 
 

Anyways here is BAE and HEFL

I thought about this same question many months ago and came to the same conclusion as you...doesn't make it right though, we could both be wrong, but your argument seems logical to me.

[Harley]

Anyone having problems with TradingView charts?  Scrolling along the charts shows the wrong data (a day out) or takes ages to update the data (HLOC type data).  Been like it for over a week.  Makes it useless.  I'm going to need to go elsewhere, suggestions?

[Cosmic]

10 hours ago, Vendetta said:

if I am buying GOLD, SILVER or COMMODITY ETFs or funds .....then am I right in thinking I should just buy outside my ISA - as these investments offer no yield - and the chances of generating capital gain profit in a single year and going above my/our annual CGT allowance is minimal?  Best to use ISA allowance for dividend generating stocks?

IIRC CGT doesn't work like that. If you put 5k in and sold it for 20k 10 years later you'd be liable for CGT on the 15k gain. You'd need to manage the gains each year to use your allowance, which afaik, means you'd need to sell the stock, and buy it back after 3months.

[Castlevania]

3 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

IIRC CGT doesn't work like that. If you put 5k in and sold it for 20k 10 years later you'd be liable for CGT on the 15k gain. You'd need to manage the gains each year to use your allowance, which afaik, means you'd need to sell the stock, and buy it back after 3months.

It’s 1 month. You can rotate between an ISA or SIPP and a taxable account if needs be.

[Majorpain]

3 hours ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

I have just caved in (under much marital pressure) and bought some new garden furniture from the local, independent, centre. The price was at least double what I would have expected pre-Covid, maybe nearer triple. No negotiation on the price either, despite my best efforts - they have stock, bought and paid for, and will hold out for their desired margin against cheaper online outfits, who may or may not be able to supply sometime, maybe, never. I respect that. Cost of shipping from Vietnam was mentioned as a big driver of the price increases.

Peoples eye's are now well open IMO, for retailers if the price of goods is increasing and you cant pass it on your stuffed.  One of our suppliers at work has been having fun with all his European goods going up by 20% from Import VAT, its pretty much game over as he was struggling before Jan.  I have zero sympathy because he was a right c**t.

I did have a bit of lightbulb moment today, whilst de-complex is one way of leveraging the inflation, you can also do it with a value added route when that isn't possible.  It doesn't matter how much input inflation increases, as long as you add enough value into the product processing it then it will proportionally make the raw material increases less.  Just like running from a tiger, you don't need to be the fastest, just quicker than the slowest so you can survive long enough that prices start to rise ahead of input inflation again.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

I did have a bit of lightbulb moment today, whilst de-complex is one way of leveraging the inflation, you can also do it with a value added route when that isn't possible.  It doesn't matter how much input inflation increases, as long as you add enough value into the product processing it then it will proportionally make the raw material increases less.  Just like running from a tiger, you don't need to be the fastest, just quicker than the slowest so you can survive long enough that prices start to rise ahead of input inflation again.

Excellent analogy!

[planit]

I was thinking about using a new charting site earlier so I looked up your suggestion

Stockchart pricing matrix:

 

[Mooping]

20 hours ago, Starsend said:

SILJ isn't available on HL cos of the KID issue.

Denison mines is. I hold it in my SIPP, think it was on the Toronto exchange though.

Kazatomprom not available on HL even though London listed as not settled via Crest. You can buy it through Interactive Brokers as I have or through degiro, not sure about others.

Thanks for that.  Shame you cannot open an ISA account through IB. :-(

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

Peoples eye's are now well open IMO, for retailers if the price of goods is increasing and you cant pass it on your stuffed.  One of our suppliers at work has been having fun with all his European goods going up by 20% from Import VAT, its pretty much game over as he was struggling before Jan.  I have zero sympathy because he was a right c**t.

I did have a bit of lightbulb moment today, whilst de-complex is one way of leveraging the inflation, you can also do it with a value added route when that isn't possible.  It doesn't matter how much input inflation increases, as long as you add enough value into the product processing it then it will proportionally make the raw material increases less.  Just like running from a tiger, you don't need to be the fastest, just quicker than the slowest so you can survive long enough that prices start to rise ahead of input inflation again.

Its amazing really but i used my roadmap to decide to close my business.I was actually importing garden furniture when i finished.Too be honest,if id been 30 instead of 47 at the time i could probably of become one of the biggest garden furniture/fire pit etc suppliers in the country.I was already supplying house builders,products on TV,House Doctors etc,and even supplied some for a Playboy shoot  .I had superb people in China,and great relationships with the factories.Id built it up and yet looked at my roadmap and thought time to get the capital out and have it for the smackdown coming and following reflation.I was right to do it.Importing is a nightmare now,and the costs are just increasing in every part of the chain.The interesting thing to watch will be Amazons retail business after say June this year.Thats when they will lap the big uplift,see stock turning fully over and all other costs increasing.Margins are going to get hit hard.Their marketplace sellers will feel the pain as well.

[Innkeeper]

12 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its amazing really but i used my roadmap to decide to close my business.I was actually importing garden furniture when i finished.Too be honest,if id been 30 instead of 47 at the time i could probably of become one of the biggest garden furniture/fire pit etc suppliers in the country.I was already supplying house builders,products on TV,House Doctors etc,and even supplied some for a Playboy shoot  .I had superb people in China,and great relationships with the factories.Id built it up and yet looked at my roadmap and thought time to get the capital out and have it for the smackdown coming and following reflation.I was right to do it.Importing is a nightmare now,and the costs are just increasing in every part of the chain.The interesting thing to watch will be Amazons retail business after say June this year.Thats when they will lap the big uplift,see stock turning fully over and all other costs increasing.Margins are going to get hit hard.Their marketplace sellers will feel the pain as well.

The days of Amazon being cheap/ the cheapest seem to have quietly disappeared.  I’m trying not to use them as I would prefer to buy direct from a UK business anyway but that decision over the last few months has been an easy one as other vendors offer the same price or sometimes less.  Amazon sometimes have had the edge with availability but that’s going now as well.

There’s a whole bunch of the population that buy Amazon through laziness because they just search and click - job done.  Price isn’t an issue especially on small ticket stuff.  I never understood the mentality of ease of use over price until someone told me they only booked hotels through booking.com because they didn’t have to keep entering their credit card details each time they wanted to stay somewhere.  Didn’t matter to them if there was a cheaper or better hotel available and they weren’t interested in looking either.

[Hancock]

13 minutes ago, Innkeeper said:

The days of Amazon being cheap/ the cheapest seem to have quietly disappeared.

Ive never used Amazon up until recently.

But bought some pizza flour and tomato sauce for cheaper then i'd have got it anywhere else, all delivered the next day.

Recently i wanted some summer sandals, ive had 4 pairs sent and none seemed to fit properly, all posted to me free of charge and returned free of charge. With the refund paid when i drop it at the post office.

Ended up with these that cost me £11. Seems Amazon are OK with making a loss to put everyone else out of business.

[nirvana]

11 hours ago, leonardratso said:

prawns.

that's it prawns! No wonder I couldn't understand what the feck they were saying

In other news

A third of COVID survivors suffer neurological or mental disorders: study

so some of us might not be as mad as first thought 

cheers!

 

[Bricormortis]

https://www.lynalden.com/april-2021-newsletter/

[wherebee]

28 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I see DH has finally aligned with our $80 Brent / $75 WTI call. I'm always a little uncomfortable when his call is different. Now both DBs and DHs macro roadmaps are aligned with what I see on the supply side, niiicee.

Only three outcomes are possible from understanding this graphic:

1. We will transition to renewables, and return to a 1950s standard of living.

2. Fossil fuel use will continue to grow along with renewables in a broad energy mix.

3. We discover or tame a new and effectively free source of energy like nuclear fusion.

Any of the three is possible, but I'd put the probabilities at 1. 15%, 2. 80%, 3. 5%. I've increased the probability of #1 happening since last year as world governments genuinely seem to be willing to destroy society and standards of living. However going back to a 1950s standard of living with the current world population does't mean a modest house and one car (the 1950s looked quite nice to me!), it means mass starvation and war. People are alseep.

I'm not so sure about 1 being unreachable.  Think about it.  If you cut holiday travel, food miles, personal cars, commuter miles, and waste out of the modern life, 1950's style living wouldn't be that impossible.  Energy efficiency has grown massively in terms of housing and electric items (if houses are built properly).  

The key challenges would be getting the british public used to no holidays and no eating out.

 

HANG ON!

[wherebee]

31 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

So is the hivemind now saying we bail out of the oilies when $80 reached?  I thought it was all 120+ and hold for five years for divvies/!  But the bloke about is saying down to 10?

[feed]

3 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I'm not so sure about 1 being unreachable.  Think about it.  If you cut holiday travel, food miles, personal cars, commuter miles, and waste out of the modern life, 1950's style living wouldn't be that impossible.  Energy efficiency has grown massively in terms of housing and electric items (if houses are built properly).  

The key challenges would be getting the british public used to no holidays and no eating out.

 

HANG ON!

In 1950 there were 2.5 billion people on the planet. 7.8 billion in 2020. 

[wherebee]

1 minute ago, feed said:

In 1950 there were 2.5 billion people on the planet. 7.8 billion in 2020. 

I was more thinking of Australia, where numbers haven't grown massively