Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

25 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

We all used to work for Atari but lost our jobs when Alan Sugar decided to cancel the project. 

Well, that's what we all told you!  

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

The big boys and girls have been moving in and they represent all generations.  The crypto market has moved on from the old cliches.

Has it though? I don’t think it has. It’s still very early in acceptance let alone investment worthy in the mainstream. One look at the the arguments in the comments on articles on the FT you can gauge the consensus. I still stand by it’s a generational thing.

The older generation think it’s all tulips and railroads and have seen it countless times and the younger think the likes of JPM have them over a barrel in the established system so will gravitate away from that. However both agree that physical PMs makes up part of the hedge, so it’s a win win 

[Bricormortis]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

I agree. And I assume the same considerations apply to silver?                                                                                         But isn't there a timing element here also? For example, I bought phsp/sslv - physically backed silver funds. I bought at average 100/1 gsr ratio and my intention is to swop/arbitrage to gold when gsr is favourable to gold. At that time i may buy all physical gold or mix of actual phys gold/gold fund. I thought I had until later in the cycle, say 2026?, to attempt to implement this plan. But are we saying I'm taking high risks now? Everyone has different risk tolerance, but in terms of confiscation, etc, I thought that was 'scheduled'(!) for late this decade when monetary collapse may even happen?

What I have concerns about is silver being a strategic metal, necessary for industry including electronics, defence and the greening of the economy. There is a knowledgable guy on Youtube, Don Durett, a bit rampy perhaps, but he does mention that he believes the powers that be wont let silver go above $100 for that reason. 

Although the powers that be wont set the price of physical coins directly, they can indirectly interfere in the market, eg make silver etfs illegal, not allow 1000 oz bars to be traded, you might feel that would actually boost the price of coins, but there is some risk it stymies or collapses the silver market once people fear repression. And I believe repression is 100% inevitable...as laid out by Napier recently.

I dont thinlk the govt will confiscate physical, as there are other more sublte ways as exampled above. 

That is something worth thinking about and will cause me to consider gradually rotating out of PHSP and into gold stocks  if  silver ever gets towards the $100 dollar mark. I will keep enough coins for currency collapse insurance to stand a chance of being able to survive one year on them.  Plenty of skinny folk in Venezuala wish they did that already.

(I think the required stash at current values was about £2000 physical to survive a year in Venezuela.) Dont ask me anything about this last bit as I dont know the answers and likely enough no one else does either.

[Bricormortis]

Covid fear was a psy-op. British Psychology Society on the war path.  MSN...From an article in the Telegraph.

.State of fear: how ministers ‘used covert tactics’ to keep scared public at home (msn.com) edited bits copy and pasted below f y i.

 

Whether frightening the public was a deliberate – or honest – tactic has become the subject of intense debate, and dozens of psychologists have now accused ministers of using “covert psychological strategies” to manipulate the public’s behaviour.

They believe the Government, acting on the advice of behavioural experts, has emphasised the threat from Covid without putting the risks in sufficient context, leaving the country in “a state of heightened anxiety”.

They also claim that “inflated fear levels will be responsible for the ‘collateral’ deaths of many thousands of people with non-Covid illnesses” who are “too frightened to attend hospital”

They are so concerned that the British public has been the subject of a mass experiment in the use of strategies that operate “below their level of awareness” that they have made a formal complaint to their professional body, which will now rule on whether government advisers have been guilty of a breach of ethics. 

See full article at the link.

[Lightscribe]

12 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

What I have concerns about is silver being a strategic metal, necessary for industry including electronics, defence and the greening of the economy. There is a knowledgable guy on Youtube, Don Durett, a bit rampy perhaps, but he does mention that he believes the powers that be wont let silver go above $100 for that reason. 

Although the powers that be wont set the price of physical coins directly, they can indirectly interfere in the market, eg make silver etfs illegal, not allow 1000 oz bars to be traded, you might feel that would actually boost the price of coins, but there is some risk it stymies or collapses the silver market once people fear repression. And I believe repression is 100% inevitable...as laid out by Napier recently.

I dont thinlk the govt will confiscate physical, as there are other more sublte ways as exampled above. 

That is something worth thinking about and will cause me to consider gradually rotating out of PHSP and into gold stocks  if  silver ever gets towards the $100 dollar mark. I will keep enough coins for currency collapse insurance to stand a chance of being able to survive one year on them.  Plenty of skinny folk in Venezuala wish they did that already.

(I think the required stash at current values was about £2000 physical to survive a year in Venezuela.) Dont ask me anything about this last bit as I dont know the answers and likely enough no one else does either.

Exactly my thinking. Simply put, you can’t ignore the physical need for the most conductive metal on the planet in an ever more digital and electric age regardless of manipulation. 

[Lightscribe]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

Lightscribe, I was late to the crypto party, but now happy to say I at least own some BTC. You mention chainlink, I was aware (can't remember how, it might have been your own post!) of its future use potential/claims but have missed the boat on that particular coin. However was wondering if you are looking at other coins which look similarly interesting? If/when we get a further run up in BTC i intend to withdraw my original capital stake (and leave rest in as 'free ride'). I might spend some of my 'spare' cash on other crypto-coins so would be interested to learn how you became aware of chainlink before it's epic climb? Not asking for trading advise of course, more a question about how to source quality info about the coins, to help identify a future 'chainlink'?!? Highly speculative I know, but similar risk to the junior silver miners I think.                                               And believe there is something in that theory regarding money flows (if also anticipating money that has been as yet held back, eg institutions?) from gold to crypo. For example, im only an investor minnow in regards the precious metals markets, but this time last year my portfolio in pm's consisted of gold/silver, both physical and mine stocks. Today, because I have trimmed/reallocated into crypto (mostly BTC), my pm/crypto ratio% is now 80pm/20crypto (in terms of my capital invested, which is how I personally measure this; actual returns over last 6 months skewer these %'s totally!!).        

Perhaps take this to a PM as we don’t really want to divert off into crypto again? I’ll be happy to send you some articles and documents.

[Guy De Bored]

Many thanks ONC (and Calcutta!!) for the TOS explanation!

All makes sense now.

Now I have that sorted, I hope I can add my two-penneth to the wider conversation in due course...

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Has it though? I don’t think it has. It’s still very early in acceptance let alone investment worthy in the mainstream. One look at the the arguments in the comments on articles on the FT you can gauge the consensus. I still stand by it’s a generational thing.

The older generation think it’s all tulips and railroads and have seen it countless times and the younger think the likes of JPM have them over a barrel in the established system so will gravitate away from that. However both agree that physical PMs makes up part of the hedge, so it’s a win win 

Yes I do.  Sorry.  The idea crypto is an edgy new thing for the cool young kids is over and this generation segregation thing with all its baggage so beloved by some is just a handicap.  The market is far deeper and more complex than simple characterisations.  You have companies, hedge funds, wealth funds, family offices, HNW individuals and all the rest.  All smart, professional money.  Old money have kept their money by moving early with the times.  The simplistic idea of a market of edgy young things and horrible set in their ways boomer retail investor types could cost an investor dearly, as it should because investing demands better.  They are marginal players.  Retail, whatever age, forever late, just in time to pick up the bill.

[Lightscribe]

36 minutes ago, Harley said:

Yes I do.  Sorry.  The idea crypto is an edgy new thing for the cool young kids is over and this generation segregation thing with all its baggage so beloved by some is just a handicap.  The market is far deeper and more complex than simple characterisations.  You have companies, hedge funds, wealth funds, family offices, HNW individuals and all the rest.  All smart, professional money.  Old money have kept their money by moving early with the times.  The simplistic idea of a market of edgy young things and horrible set in their ways boomer retail investor types could cost an investor dearlyvas it should because investing expects better.  They are marginal players.  Forever late, just in time to pick up the bill.

I didn’t say it was an edgy new thing, I’m simply implying that at this point in time with an increasingly bleak financial outlook inherited by the younger generation, they will look elsewhere, crypto provides the outlet for that until it’s regulated out of existence. The markets and hedge funds will follow the money regardless. Whether that consists of the older demographic inadvertently investing in managed hedge funds incorporating crypto is irrelevant.

Passive investment funds have worked verbatim in recent history. But will they work forever more and fund all those pension funds all the while pension ages increase and the carrot gets drawn further away?

[Harley]

10 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I didn’t say it was an edgy new thing, I’m simply implying that at this point in time with an increasingly bleak financial outlook inherited by the younger generation, they will look elsewhere, crypto provides the outlet for that until it’s regulated out of existence. The markets and hedge funds will follow the money regardless. Whether that consists of the older demographic inadvertently investing is passive hedge funds incorporating crypto is irrelevant.

Passive investment funds have worked verbatim in recent history. But will they work forever more and fund all those pension funds all the while pension ages increase and the carrot gets drawn further away?

Sorry, I don't buy any of that, at least in the characterisations.   But if the script works for you then that's fine.  Let's stop the dialogue please and move on. 

[Lightscribe]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

Sorry, I don't buy any of that, at least in the characterisations.   But if the script works for you then that's fine.  Let's stop the dialogue please and move on. 

Agree to disagree  it’s what makes a discussion forum an actual place for discussion right? 

[Talking Monkey]

6 hours ago, Majorpain said:

We shall see, the paper price isn't wagging the physical dog any more, I was going to pick some of the nice 2021 Britannia's, but good luck getting them for anything less than a massive premium.

The premium on silver britannia are huge, add on the vat and its nuts, maybe the way to go is 1/10 ounce gold coins still a chunky premium but not as nuts as silver. I'm absolutely shocked at the premium over spot. 

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

The premium on silver britannia are huge, add on the vat and its nuts, maybe the way to go is 1/10 ounce gold coins still a chunky premium but not as nuts as silver. I'm absolutely shocked at the premium over spot. 

Yes, I've a reasonable stash of silver ordered when coininvest had the VAT loophole, but I won't be ordering any more now.

[Viceroy]

Might be worth a listen - Lynn’s take on silver

[Innkeeper]

35 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

The premium on silver britannia are huge, add on the vat and its nuts, maybe the way to go is 1/10 ounce gold coins still a chunky premium but not as nuts as silver. I'm absolutely shocked at the premium over spot. 

Isn’t this the much discussed problem with the paper and physical PM markets?  The ‘spot’ is the Comex price and the ‘premium’ for physical is actually the market price for physical because that’s what you have to pay. Bear in mind that coins (aside of VAT) will always have a premium compared with bars due to design/manufacturing/marketing costs - having nice looking silver costs a bit more 

[Lightscribe]

Just to add from yesterday in relation to the big funds moving in with regards to crypto, Grayscale is about the most diverse with 13 investment trusts currently as far as I’m aware.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-17/biggest-bitcoin-fund-provider-to-offer-different-crypto-trusts

Most others will be limited to BTC and ETH as part crypto exposure to be used in a diverse portfolio. I can’t see these funds loading up and connecting their MetaMask defi wallets to uniswap to diversify into the likes of unicorns into sushi or pancakes anytime soon.

A bit ironic however, that these funds are investing in crypto exposure for growth/hedge against fiat devaluation when the whole point of some of these cryptos is to integrate into what replaces it.

[King Penda]

19 hours ago, Calcutta said:

How the hell did you find us without TOS? 

It means Tramriel Operating System. We all used to work for Atari but lost our jobs when Alan Sugar decided to cancel the project. 

Don’t meantion the emailer

[DurhamBorn]

Nice to see more and more of the roadmap playing out,and not the media is waking up to things.The macro position spotted all of this happening before anyone left a door open in a Chinese lab.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/04/04/ursula-dividend-shot-arm-uk-vaccine-industry/

 

[DoINeedOne]

So all this shit going on with silver and apparently the Perth Mint not have much silver etc....

Does anyone see the benefit in reserving bars within BullionVault if you had enough Silver, I trust and like BullionVault so I'm not suggesting that there's a issue there

 

Reserving takes the bar and allocates it to you and it won't be available for trading

0.1% - 0.2% fee to reserve the bar

0.72% storage fee per year an increase from the normal 0.48%

FREE to release the bar back to trading or sell 

[Loki]

New David Hunter vid

 

One of the most important things I took from this (if I have understood correctly) is that the economy will be doing fine when the BK hits, as the money leaving stocks will be needed for economic activity elsewhere.

Well worth a watch even if you've seen the others.

[geordie_lurch]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

New David Hunter vid

 

One of the most important things I took from this (if I have understood correctly) is that the economy will be doing fine when the BK hits, as the money leaving stocks will be needed for economic activity elsewhere.

Well worth a watch even if you've seen the others.

Cheers for that @Loki

I think that's a great short reminder video to not get caught up with the herd piling into stocks as things continue to rise for from here as the Big Kahuna (BK) is due very soon if you believe we are at the end of what David calls a super cycle 
 

[sancho panza]

On 03/04/2021 at 14:34, Bricormortis said:

David Hunter latest via Miles Franklin ....duration is 28 mins.

BM and @Loki.Thanks for posting.This was superb.This really does reemphasize what a decent run of macro calls DH has had.It's also a reiteration of his very stark warnings that you need to be careful out there.

I've done a written precy for a couple of family members,reprinted below,because I think this is an important vid raising a lot of key issues.Weaves in nicely with what @DurhamBorn has been predicting for a few years.

One of the best things I think David Hunter says in this vid is that he'll be happy if gets the top within a few months either side of it.Says a lot that that's his measure of success and a timely reminder that anyone taking daily calls from anyone too seriously is playing with fire.

 

from David Hunter video

sees 4600 S&P,Nasdaq 17,000,driven by covid recovery and FOMO

top in Q2 or Q3,but this top has been coming for 39 years since 1982 when disinflation process started,will be happy if he gets within a few months of it.

cyclical and secualr bulls will peak at same time then drop up to 80%.His 80% call is a guess based on hsitory.

lot of leverage particualrly with derivatives which may exacerabte the market's moves.

Fed will be caught between rock and a hard place.Inflation will force Fed to tightenSays infaltion measures are out but they're what we sue.Doesn't see US inflation beyond 3% this year but that will be enough due to the recent money pritning.Market will push up rates to 2.5% on ten year.

DH thinks bond market rally is starting right now.Marekts don't move in straight lines.UST's have run up to 1.75% from 0.6% in 6 months.We're due a rally in bonds.

Previously said next price points for PM's gold $2500 and silver $45-$50.Could come in Q3,admits his timing is best guess.Points out that if you use unoffical numbers tehn real rates then gold goes higher but using govt figures,algo's won't push it higher.

Long term forecasts gold $10,000,silver $300.All assets will get pummelled in BK except UST's and $,but PM's will only drop 30%.

Has seen a lot of stress on twitter from the recent moves down in gold/silver,says that if that hruts them,then a bust will be hard.

Gold will be a huge winner in the recovery cycle after the BK.

Makes these market calls becuase we're approaching the end of a super cycle.A super cycle is defined by DH as the cycle between two depressions.Sees next Dperession in 2030's.Volatility gets huge at the end of a super cycle.

Says people need to really reassess their risk profile approaching BK.

Sees bull market top followed by worst bear market in 80 years.Best professionals can't call it precisely.

Time wise we're at the high end of the risk scale.

Will enter period of very high downside volatility shortly.

We will see euphoria in next few months.

Fed is printing money because the economy is bad.

 

 

 

 

[MrXxxx]

21 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

DH thinks bond market rally is starting right now.Marekts don't move in straight lines.UST's have run up to 1.75% from 0.6% in 6 months.We're due a rally in bonds.

Didn't understand this, was he saying that bond prices would increase (and so lower yield), and why would this happen if inflation/interest rates increase, I would have thought this would be the opposite as we have now (0.6 to 1.7 yield)....or is it because the companies need the bond funds in a growing economy and so compete with each other for the capital?

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Didn't understand this, was he saying that bond prices would increase (and so lower yield), and why would this happen if inflation/interest rates increase, I would have thought this would be the opposite as we have now (0.6 to 1.7 yield)....or is it because the companies need the bond funds in a growing economy and so compete with each other for the capital?

He's basically using a variation fo the old Wolf line about 'nothing goes to heck in a straight line' ie that we're due a pullback ahead of a further weakening.He mentioned 2.5% sometime this year iirc.I'd have to relsiten to it to find where.

I think @Cattle Prod has written recently about the oil price needing a pullback to confirm the bull is still on.

 

[DurhamBorn]

Id really advise people to listen hard to what David says about liquidity.We said on this thread last March that as the CBs print it first enters the financial pipes before entering the economy,and thats exactly what he is saying in the video.He is also saying that a big part of a BK could be people selling to do things in the real economy.Thats why markets move the opposite to what people expect because they dont understand leads and lags on liquidity.