Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, Rave said:

The problem I have is that if people misinterpret scientific studies and then post their misinterpretation on the internet as fact, then that makes it harder for other people to make an informed choice.

The Media misrepresent a lot of things, hence why we need to encourage the critical thinking skills in the populus that you have demonstrated, not media control of `perceived` fake news. As for its relevance, whether it `fake`/misinterpreted or not, it can still move the market hence its importance, I don't recall anyone saying you had to believe it?

[M S E Refugee]

I am not sure how to play this as it looks nailed on that we are heading for a lockdown this Winter.

Johnson and Trudeau have both indicated that Lockdowns are more effective than the vaccines.

[Loki]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I am not sure how to play this as it looks nailed on that we are heading for a lockdown this Winter.

Johnson and Trudeau have both indicated that Lockdowns are more effective than the vaccines.

There's our BK catalyst then

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I am not sure how to play this as it looks nailed on that we are heading for a lockdown this Winter.

Johnson and Trudeau have both indicated that Lockdowns are more effective than the vaccines.

Funny has fuck

[M S E Refugee]

Just now, stokiescum said:

Funny has fuck

I hope the UK population will grow a pair and end this madness.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

The Media misrepresent a lot of things, hence why we need to encourage the critical thinking skills in the populus that you have demonstrated, not media control of `perceived` fake news. As for its relevance, whether it `fake`/misinterpreted or not, it can still move the market hence its importance, I don't recall anyone saying you had to believe it?

Exactly the same for finance and investing.  Sure listen but DYOBFR!  And the best narrative of all this whateverdemic stuff I've listened to has come from the financial community.

[King Penda]

2 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I hope the UK population will grow a pair and end this madness.

No chance they love it other than a mask in supermarkets and 1 2 week period off school for the lad I’ve been lucky and unaffected mainly.no tests or jabs.the biggest cause for concern has been my weight gain which is my fault and the obvious clinical depression in lots of friends

[Harley]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I am not sure how to play this as it looks nailed on that we are heading for a lockdown this Winter.

Johnson and Trudeau have both indicated that Lockdowns are more effective than the vaccines.

We're in a lull.  Looks like an agenda is indeed being played out unless this is just rearranging the bodies before an enquiry. Your finances may be next up.  Regulation, capital controls, tax changes, etc.  Be prepared.

[DurhamBorn]

27 minutes ago, Harley said:

We're in a lull.  Looks like an agenda is indeed being played out unless this is just rearranging the bodies before an enquiry. Your finances may be next up.  Regulation, capital controls, tax changes, etc.  Be prepared.

Its more your area than mine Harley,but something doesnt smell right does it.In one way it points to what i expected in them needing a huge excuse to boost investment spending and kick in reflation,but there seems more.The fact corporates seem to be more interested in woke than shareholders etc.

Regulation can destroy,or should we say transfer capital in an instant and as you say is growing into a huge risk.

[Majorpain]

21 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

No chance they love it other than a mask in supermarkets and 1 2 week period off school for the lad I’ve been lucky and unaffected mainly.no tests or jabs.the biggest cause for concern has been my weight gain which is my fault and the obvious clinical depression in lots of friends

Yes, lots of free money from the furlough and hiding at home in the garden has been a massive increase in the standard of living for lots of people.  The piper needs to be paid at some point though, it will be distinctly less pleasant when the inflation genie inevitably comes out of his bottle.

[King Penda]

34 minutes ago, Harley said:

We're in a lull.  Looks like an agenda is indeed being played out unless this is just rearranging the bodies before an enquiry. Your finances may be next up.  Regulation, capital controls, tax changes, etc.  Be prepared.

Would be funny if they went Greek on us and limited cash withdrawals 

[King Penda]

7 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Yes, lots of free money from the furlough and hiding at home in the garden has been a massive increase in the standard of living for lots of people.  The piper needs to be paid at some point though, it will be distinctly less pleasant when the inflation genie inevitably comes out of his bottle.

When furlow ends lots are in for a surprise 

[M S E Refugee]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its more your area than mine Harley,but something doesnt smell right does it.In one way it points to what i expected in them needing a huge excuse to boost investment spending and kick in reflation,but there seems more.The fact corporates seem to be more interested in woke than shareholders etc.

Regulation can destroy,or should we say transfer capital in an instant and as you say is growing into a huge risk.

Do you think they have any intention of opening up the economy in the near future?

[geordie_lurch]

5 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Would be funny if they went Greek on us and limited cash withdrawals 

People would just accept it as they can use their cards... then they will swap your standard £s to CBDC digital pounds (plebs only, at least at first) and that's when the real fun starts as it will all be tracked and some of it will come with restrictions such as where you can spend it and how long you can selfishly 'hoard ' it

[King Penda]

Just now, geordie_lurch said:

People would just accept it as they can use their cards... then they will swap your standard £s to digital pounds (plebs only probably) and that's when the real fun starts as it will all be tracked and some of it will come with restrictions such as where you can spend it and how long you can selfishly horde it.

That would be a longer time frame but possible .no idea how big the black economy is here but they would probably start useing dollars over time

[NogintheNog]

20 hours ago, Fully Detached said:

Ref your question, I am quite convinced that governments around the world have fiddled the figures to suit their own agendas since the very beginning of the pandemic, and will continue to do so. In other words, whether the vaccine(s) are successful or not is probably less relevant than what those governments decide they want the truth to be.

The figures from the ONS quoted every evening are the ones that vex me.

'X' number of deaths from any cause within 28 days of a positive test?

So we have 125,000+ deaths from Covid, but how many of that figure actually died of Covid? How many of them were going to die anyway, and picked up Covid on the way? Sadly I have an Aunt who is part of those figures. She has had cancer over the last two years and was given 3 months to live late last year. She was moved into a hospice where she was tested and found to have Covid. She sadly passed away a few weeks later, but she didn't die on a ventilator but from the effect of the tumour.

We'll never know how many more would have died if we had not locked down, how much worse would it have been???

[NogintheNog]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I am not sure how to play this as it looks nailed on that we are heading for a lockdown this Winter.

Johnson and Trudeau have both indicated that Lockdowns are more effective than the vaccines.

I think it is more likely that international holiday travel will take a hit first to ensure that no nasty vaccine resistant variants enter the UK...

They will still enter of course via some businessman travelling essentially with his family in tow

[Lightscribe]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

The Media misrepresent a lot of things, hence why we need to encourage the critical thinking skills in the populus that you have demonstrated, not media control of `perceived` fake news. As for its relevance, whether it `fake`/misinterpreted or not, it can still move the market hence its importance, I don't recall anyone saying you had to believe it?

Exactly this. Perhaps I should have worded it better and said ‘South Africa variant proved to be eight times more prevalent among tested patients’ instead of at risk. But it doesn’t add anymore to the point I was making. Look at the reactions in the comment section.

If the MSM articles places seeds of doubt in the population it will cause vaccine hesitancy (like AZ and JJ currently) which will effect the wider economy, again like this article.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/michigan-covid-test-positive-vaccinated-b1827393.html

I couldn’t care less about the scientific studies behind it (this isn’t a Covid/vax thread), it’s the narrative and wider effect on the population that matters in the economy, and it’s the government that will control that narrative whichever way they wish the direction to go.
 

 

[Agent ZigZag]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

We're in a lull.  Looks like an agenda is indeed being played out unless this is just rearranging the bodies before an enquiry. Your finances may be next up.  Regulation, capital controls, tax changes, etc.  Be prepared.

I hold quiet of bit of silver and gold at Goldmoney, an account that I have held and used for a long time. This has suddenly been frozen after I tried to take delivery. I now have to demonstrate a full audit trail of where my income came from going back 15 plus years, employment status, who I am, address etc. The full works under the requirement of money laundering. The daft thing is with all on line finance/banking, share accounts etc, they ask no questions regarding money laundering when you give them your money, but as soon you ask for it back you have to jump through hurdles. It is why I like tangible objects. I want to see it and hold it cutting out the middle man.

Looking in from the outside I am of the opinion that there is a huge agenda being played out. Governments around the world simply do not know what to do with the current system that we have in place, that is running out of road. 

[Rave]

7 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Yes I can see it’s yet to be peer reviewed, it says it in the article. I was merely linking to to it and repeated what it stated within it.

No, you completely misrepresented what was said within it, hence my objection. You stated that taking the Pfizer vaccine makes people 8 times more susceptible to catching the SA variant, and that's simply not what the study shows.

 

7 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

The reasoning behind the post was in response to other comments stating that any further suspensions/reviews/age group suitably etc , could delay the global economy bouncing back as quickly as expected, thus providing the catalyst for the BK event we have speculated on.

That's entirely fair enough. But when you're talking about a current vaccine against an ongoing pandemic of an illness that makes some people really ill and sometimes has serious long term ongoing effects, accuracy matters a bit more than usual.

If it was actually true that the Pfizer vaccine made you more likely to catch the SA variant then that would, in my opinion at least, actually be a very good reason to be circumspect about taking it. But as it stands, all the evidence suggests the opposite- that it makes you less likely to catch it. It's just not quite as effective against the SA variant as against the others.

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

The Media misrepresent a lot of things, hence why we need to encourage the critical thinking skills in the populus that you have demonstrated, not media control of `perceived` fake news. As for its relevance, whether it `fake`/misinterpreted or not, it can still move the market hence its importance, I don't recall anyone saying you had to believe it?

It was (and is) absolutely not my intention to police the relevance of posts in this thread. I myself literally only post slightly off topic stuff in it as I have nothing to add to the stock picking or macro discussion; so I only pipe up on subjects I know something about, like EROEI or energy storage round trip efficiency; or being a massive tightwad.

If I posted something along the lines of "Check out this stock I found lads, it's in a hot sector but has a P/E ratio of 1!!11! FILL YOUR BOOTS!" but it turned out that I'd missed a % sign or a decimal point while looking at the figures and actually the P/E was 100, then I'd expect to be pulled up on it, and fairly harshly at that.

[NogintheNog]

13 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

If the MSM articles places seeds of doubt in the population it will cause vaccine hesitancy (like AZ and JJ currently) which will effect the wider economy, again like this article.

There is risk in taking any medicine, hence all the warnings on any over the counter product. I am in the age at risk group but have not and have no intention of getting any of these vaccines thus far. If I thought I was at risk or knew I was at risk I probably would, but as far as I'm aware I'm not, so I won't.

What the Pharma companies have done is pretty amazing I have to say, but as far as I'm concerned this is nothing more than a huge phase 3 trial on 'new' medicine technology with a product approved for emergency use only. I'm sick to death of hearing that I'm helping the potential spread of Covid, when clearly you are not immunised against the ability to catch Covid, just the effect it may have on you. You can very likely still spread it even after vaccination!

Those countries that get on with getting back to work will come out of this better placed. Those that add more non productive workers to their government payroll will fare worse.

[nirvana]

7 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

I now have to demonstrate a full audit trail of where my income came from going back 15 plus years, employment status, who I am, address etc

hmmmm interesting.......shitcoins to the moon it is then....

Guys I thought us 'basement dwellers' didn't get vaxxed with useless drugs? 

anyone seen this one?

 

[RJT1979]

1 hour ago, stokiescum said:

No chance they love it other than a mask in supermarkets and 1 2 week period off school for the lad I’ve been lucky and unaffected mainly.no tests or jabs.the biggest cause for concern has been my weight gain which is my fault and the obvious clinical depression in lots of friends

They are only like that when you turn up 😉

[JMD]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I hope the UK population will grow a pair and end this madness.

...grow a pair you say?... Sounds like you advocating 'toxic masculinity'?, isn't that now a hate crime?

I jest of course, back in the 'sensible real world' - Public Demonstrations are soon to be made illegal, All-Political-Party consensus, the Media and Legal professions are totally aligned with government thinking...                                                                     so to paraphrase Orwell, 'looking from Britain to Russia, and from Russia to Britain, and from Britain to Russia again; already it was impossible to say which was which'. 

[nirvana]

17 hours ago, Tingles said:

It's a difficult one as I am currently actively reducing my exposure to equities/funds.

Big banks are reporting earnings this week so markets bound to go higher

Apparently the top oil trader at GS is giving it up to be a crypto trader