Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Just street-viewed Brid, not been there since I was a kid in the 1970s, go 500 metres North or South from the harbour and it is very pleasant (even Sewerby), the South Side is like the Brighton/Bournemouth of the North with a better Beach and the North Side is like the best bits of Scarborough.

Something for everybody no less.

Its been done up a lot,the front is really lovely now and you can walk or cycle all the way along,or as was the case when my mam got older push a wheelchair,those things make a difference.The south of the harbour has a fantastic beach and a lovely new free childrens pool,paddling stream,really nice toilets etc.The Spa has some superb acts on and the lads whining on the threads about never getting laid need to go there on a 70s or ABBA tribute weekend,my partner wont let me leave her side if we are there when those are on .A few big new modern bars are opening this year,one a sports bar with dozens of big TVs,near the bookies my dad (and me) could be dumped in there and left.£2.15 a pint and it doesnt go up on a night.Still a lot of free parking around the south end and some at the north.

Sewerby is a bit naff now and the council dont seem to have many ideas for it,but still nice enough.Worst part for me is driving around Scabby to get there,its a nightmare and really wish there was a straight past bypass.Can go York way,but lots of memories from being a kid from Whitby and Bay and so always go that way.

Book far enough ahead and you can get the Premier Inn rooms for £35 and free parking.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Nomad said:

Maybe realisation is starting to kick in?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57670734

I had 3.8% for now 3 years ago.Biggest bunch or liars there are the bankers.Inflation is around 10% in the real world and its not a one off that will roll back,the CBs have lifted liquidity by a third so that tax can get in front of spending so governments dont go bust.MSM and almost everyone says reflation in the rear view now and all over.They havent a clue what they are talking about.Lots of dislocation in the economy and its around 90% certain we are entering into a distribution cycle right now.As assets including houses top out inflation will ensure assets have to be sold.

Critical to own areas that can leverage the inflation without losing customers.

[HousePriceMania]

 

[DoINeedOne]

Bought some HMY and AUY yesterday,My ISA seems to be filling up with miners again

[invalid]

5 hours ago, Barnsey said:

On the stubborn savings front...

Negative rates coming? Or full lifting of restrictions, particularly travel, all that is needed?

 

 

Travel - holidays are a good way to get that cash out of peoples bank accounts. Personally, I don't think that would be a good thing as it also means lots of cash going outside the UK.

But lots of people like their two weeks in the sun, perhaps time to top up those IAG shares.

 

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Bought some HMY and AUY yesterday,My ISA seems to be filling up with miners again

I bought some more HMY yesterday as well, looking closely at topping up AUY also.

SNAP.

[Popuplights]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

De la rue shares would be the ultimate hedge against this if it wasn't for debit cards and CBDCs.

Rubbish. Bitcoin of course. 😃

[Hancock]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I like ordinary people ,my partners relatives live there and were scared to go in a couple of the pubs and told us not to.I thought they were quite posh compared to where i grew up  nothing wrong with them at all and £2.15 a pint.It hasnt been taken over by the BTL/holiday let brigade as well.Its a place that might boom going forward as well,there is a massive amount of gas sitting offshore.

 

I got told off by a woman bouncer for putting my foot in the door of a pub to see the football score.

Its a strange old place if you ask me, maybe if they built a dual carriage way to get there and stuck a huge casino on the sea front, it'd improve the place.

But planning laws and big govt don't see to like people having fun, outside of 10 stellas and eating several thousand calories in one sitting.

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, invalid said:

 

 

Travel - holidays are a good way to get that cash out of peoples bank accounts. Personally, I don't think that would be a good thing as it also means lots of cash going outside the UK.

But lots of people like their two weeks in the sun, perhaps time to top up those IAG shares.

 

£43bn on foreign holidays in 2019, so still quite a bit to play with. 

 

3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

There is a distinct lack of anything but headline GDP data for 2020, it would be very interesting to see what effect furlough/lockdown/isolation/money printing has had on the structure of the economy.  70% service sector has probably taken a massive hammering.

There is also a barrage of negative things about, from new variants that are going to kill everyone, to little Jimmy/Jemima having to isolate (and keeping parents off work...) because someone in bubble got a cough through to people treating it like a zombie apocalypse and not leaving the house for anything.  Not exactly the sort of environment conducive to big spending on the credit card!

Then there is the other side of the coin, that with Holidays off the menu, Car manufacturing problems and 18 months of rules changing with no warning, IMO the only really big ticket item actually going these days is housing.  Hard to take on debt for things if there is little to actually buy.  That would be something i really want to see the data for, what are people actually spending money on at the minute?

I think there's quite a bit more psychologically to our 18 months of stop start imprisonment than many are willing to acknowledge in regards to people feeling positive enough to spend impulsively. Other night the news was focussing on how restaurants aren't getting the reopening demand that was much hyped, changes in habits are proving very sticky unless you're very young. Recession and inflation fears fairly pronounced, perhaps overly so thanks to MSM.

2 hours ago, planit said:

Oil surged up today, highest since 2018

And this is before the figures later which will probably show a further large draw in stockpiles. We could be seeing a blow-off over the next couple of weeks, I have no knowledge or evidence but a move to $80 or higher and pullback seems right.

The projected OPEC increases are not enough to make up the existing shortage plus projected demand increases so I don't see the situation suddenly turning around now.

If OPEC feels the prices are too high (somewhere between $80 and $100?) they will come out with an announcement to drop the oil prices back down. 

 

Mr Hunter stated things oil was rolling over 3 weeks ago, yet here we are.

[Hancock]

3 hours ago, Nomad said:

Maybe realisation is starting to kick in?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57670734

Everyone of these central bankers that leaves the BoE calls for imminent interest rate rises ... yet when they got the job it was the polar opposite.

[planit]

10 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

£43bn per year on foreign holidays in 2019, so still quite a bit to play with. 

 

I think there's quite a bit more psychologically to our 18 months of stop start imprisonment than many are willing to acknowledge in regards to people feeling positive enough to spend impulsively. Other night the news was focussing on how restaurants aren't getting the reopening demand that was much hyped, changes in habits are proving very sticky unless you're very young. Recession and inflation fears fairly pronounced, perhaps overly so thanks to MSM.

Mr Hunter stated things oil was rolling over 3 weeks ago, yet here we are.

Over the summer (probably because of eat out to help out) and in the autumn up to the second lockdown  I couldn't get into any pub, really annoying.

Everything is completely different now, even with the football the pub was empty. Restaurants easy to book too and I haven't been able to think of a good reason why. Habits changing could explain some of it as you say but not all.

If people have got used to living on less money and not working as hard (also lots of people have decided to retire) then the economy in developed countries is going to dive and everything will crash when the figures come through.

Most people have put off flights this summer too.

I don't see how this could be further away than September/October.

Where is the reopening boom that everyone is expecting? THE MARKETS ARE RELYING ON IT

[Hancock]

16 minutes ago, planit said:

Where is the reopening boom that everyone is expecting? THE MARKETS ARE RELYING ON IT

Dont know, but im up and down the M1 several times a week and i've never seen so many LGV/HGV's.

[janch]

I met my son in Bath last Saturday and it seemed as if the whole world was there.  It was Brits too as at this time of year it would be mainly tourists in a normal year.  Mostly young Brits too and all eating in the many cafes/restaurants etc. 

Transport to get there was busier than earlier in the year (train me) and coach (son) from London.

Its the oldies and scaredies who are staying home.  Youngsters are out and about from what I've been seeing.

[JimmyTheBruce]

6 hours ago, Nomad said:

Maybe realisation is starting to kick in?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57670734

 

3 hours ago, Hancock said:

Everyone of these central bankers that leaves the BoE calls for imminent interest rate rises ... yet when they got the job it was the polar opposite.

"In a speech to the Institute of Government, Mr Haldane, who is leaving the Bank after 32 years, said "everyone would lose" from greater inflation."

... depends how your pension is invested eh Andy?

[Harley]

And another great Palisades Radio interview.  I was making doors so only half listening but the guy seems to be quite aligned with us on oil, the macro (deflation then hyperinflation but maybe later), etc.  Interesting historic take on energy.

https://palisadesradio.ca/steve-st-angelo-americans-have-never-been-more-stock-market-exposed/

 

[nirvana]

Why is the dollar keep going up with all this money printing?

Have the FED got it wrong yet again??? 

[Loki]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

Why is the dollar keep going up

It's mental isn't it

[Harley]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

Why is the dollar keep going up with all this money printing?

Have the FED got it wrong yet again??? 

Because I forecasted it (DXY and now Cable, DYOR) based on the chart.  Beyond that, things go up, things go down.  Some a lot, some not so much.  We buy low,  we sell high.  We make money, the govt takes it.  We will own nothing and they will be happy.

[spygirl]

15 hours ago, janch said:

I met my son in Bath last Saturday and it seemed as if the whole world was there.  It was Brits too as at this time of year it would be mainly tourists in a normal year.  Mostly young Brits too and all eating in the many cafes/restaurants etc. 

Transport to get there was busier than earlier in the year (train me) and coach (son) from London.

Its the oldies and scaredies who are staying home.  Youngsters are out and about from what I've been seeing.

There are no young people in Bath now.

Bar the crusties.

 

[wherebee]

One thing I would like us to talk about is the potential for a crash in oilies prices if, come winter, some of the worst predictions of mass deaths from vaccine vulnerabilities/ADE start to come true.  

Now, I grant you it could all be bollocks, but anyone who claims 2020-21 are normal is just plain drunk.  What would be our signal for depressed demand due to mass vaxx deaths?  What's the sell point?

The oilies selling point is that demand will come back east (and west) due to declining production and the 3-5 lag in ramping up.  fair enough.  I've bought in heavily on that logical and very intelligence analysis by DB and others.  But in a world in which vaxx deaths kill substantial numbers, and the massive clusterfuck that will result, I don't see oil demand staying high, would you?

thoughts?

mine are to watch the pandemic threads for data on upticks of deaths of vaccinated people in the UK in Oct-Nov (as winter comes on and the average time from vaxxination approaches 12 months).

[Sasquatch]

25 minutes ago, wherebee said:

One thing I would like us to talk about is the potential for a crash in oilies prices if, come winter, some of the worst predictions of mass deaths from vaccine vulnerabilities/ADE start to come true.  

If that came to pass, I would be much more worried about getting food to eat than my stock prices dropping. Truly end of days stuff...

[wherebee]

12 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

If that came to pass, I would be much more worried about getting food to eat than my stock prices dropping. Truly end of days stuff...

sell oilies in Oct, buy gold and bullets = PROFIT.

or something like that

[sancho panza]

On 30/06/2021 at 11:03, Barnsey said:

The market is hot no doubt, but this isn't pre GFC madness, look at the collapse of high LTV lending.

Banks are being careful, house building was shut down for months and slowly being brought back in the face of labour and commodity constraints (when did that happen last, WWII?) .

Don't fall for the stamp duty holiday bollocks as this phenomenon is global, a s**t ton of people have a f**kload of enforced savings they've used as a deposit as they reassess their priorities. Be careful with the comparisons to 2008.

From John Auther's daily email:

Barnsey,interesting data in these charts so Im reprinting them larger so people can see the detail.Teh data only goes to Dec 20,so we don't have the recent volume data but we know it's down heavily yoy.

First up,notice the huge, and I mean huge drop in remortgages.Whether thats furlough,banks tightening,who knows.Incredible seeing that drop.Someones either not applying for credit or getting rejected.

On the second chart,the other thing I note besides the collapse is the large proportionate rise in 75%-85% LTV lending that looks to be the net result of the drop in 90-95% lending

fascinating.

 

[sancho panza]

On 30/06/2021 at 12:47, Harley said:

I'm just back from from the merchants.  Went to buy 2x1.  Out of stock with no replenishment date.  2x1 FFS.  Will try a mill but may just rip what I've got.

The worst part was I was replenishing the pile I bought back in Mar 20 in anticipation of shortages which have only just happened!  Not that I've been a keen buyer lately but my pile is now low and any jobs may have to be put on hold. 

I've already repurposed a lot of used wood which was nice to do, although won't last as long.

WHen lumber gets back to 300,I'll wake up.We had an exponential squeeze psot lockdown lift,we now need to see where it settles.

[sancho panza]

On 30/06/2021 at 15:12, Boon said:

I too think there is a lot of excess saving hanging around, trouble is most of that will be concentrated in the top 50%.  If you were struggling before the pandemic financially, chances are you are no richer now. But if you had a reasonable level of investment in almost anything apart from cash, it must be quite hard to be poorer. Those would could average down into the dip will be a lot better off.

really exceellnet point.That would directly explain the complete lack of hosuing market activity in flats and terraces that ongoing.A lot of the volume is in houses with gardens.

 people in lower income deciles are even poorer than last year.