Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Hancock]

Anyone managed to but TIMB with AJ Bell?

Search "TIM" and all i get are whats below.

Edit - Just called it cant be bought online, or to go into a SIPP.

[Heart's Ease]

 

 

Mr Hunter's thoughts on oil.

[Topped up Vodafone today under 120p (just checked for fun and it got to 93p trade low on 16 March last year). Weighted average over the last three years of accumulation - 145p.  Happy to hold and hold.]

 

[Hardhat]

Maybe it's a good time to take some profits on oilies.

Can't really figure out why oil is down today when no new OPEC agreement.

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Long dated gilts coming off the boil too...

 

And there goes the U.S. 10 yr...

 

[HousePriceMania]

Should we be buying TIPS ?

 

 

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

[Hancock]

On 18/06/2021 at 19:18, No One said:

Yup, Trading 212 has 0.15% FX fee, and free ISA
         Freetrade has 0.45% FX fee and their ISA costs £3 pm, their G.I.A is completely free however (except FX).

Both have no commission trading. Freetrade has also recently opened a SIPP too for £10 a month, no trading fees and no charges for custody either however I don't have a SIPP with the yet, I'm with AJ and Bell for now and need to continue with them for a least a year or else I get stung with £250 for leaving too early.

The only issue with 212 is that the Wallstreetbet yolo crowd all tried to rush in Jan and make accounts, and they had to put in a waitlist for newcomers.

There are also other providers like eToro. However, whomever you choose you'll save more than what you have now.

My referal links are:

www.trading212.com/invite/FMXckZm
and
https://magic.freetrade.io/join/mark/78fa17e0
respectively.

 

Full disclosure, I get a free share when someone uses these referals. DYOR yada yada

Where did you get the £250 from.

Ive been with AJ Bell for 3 ears and ive just looked at transferring my SIPP from AJ Bell, and its £9.95 per share, thus £450!

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

I feel as though this may not end well.......... 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Heart's Ease said:

 

 

Mr Hunter's thoughts on oil.

[Topped up Vodafone today under 120p (just checked for fun and it got to 93p trade low on 16 March last year). Weighted average over the last three years of accumulation - 145p.  Happy to hold and hold.]

 

I've not been following stuff recently, have I missed something?

" in next year's global bust. "

Is that his global bust delayed a year? I thought he was a 2021 Autumn bust man?

[Barnsey]

8 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I've not been following stuff recently, have I missed something?

" in next year's global bust. "

Is that his global bust delayed a year? I thought he was a 2021 Autumn bust man?

I think it's been moved forward 2 years already?

On oil...

 

[No One]

57 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Where did you get the £250 from.

Ive been with AJ Bell for 3 ears and ive just looked at transferring my SIPP from AJ Bell, and its £9.95 per share, thus £450!

 

Yes it's 9.95 per holding but if you close account before 1 year fro opening there's an extra £250 charge.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I feel as though this may not end well.......... 

Epic.  Democrats with a short memory of what Democrats did last time!

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I've not been following stuff recently, have I missed something?

" in next year's global bust. "

Is that his global bust delayed a year? I thought he was a 2021 Autumn bust man?

Timing!  Gotta watch the data with these macro boys in the back of your mind.  They choose the song, Mr Market the speed!

[Harley]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Should we be buying TIPS ?

 

 

 

 

Nah, the BoE pension fund bought the right ones at the right time!

[Harley]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

He said: “Alison made a very important point about cost inflation. We need to secure the supply chain and have it close by.

Shouldn't we all.  I'm trying with my allotment, etc!

[planit]

The short term volatility on oil is crazy, market doesn't know where to go and I guess there are people just taking profits after a good ride.

All the OPEC school children squabbling in public added to their version of 'forward guidance' is amusing but the fundamentals behind have not changed.

They would be stupid to start a trade war now since they are all making a lot of money. They have complete control of the market which still has ~$2mbpd deficit, a long way off their expected $500kbpd increase for August (when demand is also expected to be $500kbpd higher).

So whilst this drama goes on it takes attention away from the fact that reserves are dwindling fast. Biden stuck is ore in today which is a bit desperate after he has done everything he can to increase his own oil supply slowdown. US now insignificant to the posturing going on, Biden will have to sit on the side-lines and take his fate.

 

For the above I want to disagree with David Hunter even though he is way better than me (I have to hand it to him proclaiming the exact day of the rollover). There have been a few people predicting $100 oil but not the panic or general consensus of a problem I would expect at a top. I would like to predict a nice quick move higher in the next 3 weeks followed by a fast drop.

Not sure what could trigger this as on the demand side nothing seems to be on the horizon and on the supply side I am not sure who has $3mbpd spare to suddenly start pumping. Perhaps it will be some kind of economy/Covid slowdown combined with an Iran deal.

Just my useless 2p worth.

[23rdian]

Notice my IBTL holding is now up 5pc for anyone keeping an eye on this one.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, No One said:

Yes it's 9.95 per holding but if you close account before 1 year fro opening there's an extra £250 charge.

Its a scandal, if i want to move bank accounts, utility provider etc etc... they would never get away with such charges.

Got you by the balls.

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I've not been following stuff recently, have I missed something?

" in next year's global bust. "

Is that his global bust delayed a year? I thought he was a 2021 Autumn bust man?

He’s been a global bust in the next year man for at least the past 6 years

[Harley]

51 minutes ago, 23rdian said:

Notice my IBTL holding is now up 5pc for anyone keeping an eye on this one.

Yep, I had a buy signal this week but am worried it's a fake one.  Maybe some more basing yet to go before any sustainable uptick, or it's a goodun.  Nothing's guaranteed.  Also factor in the exchange rate move. 

[Harley]

23 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

...iv also been buying a few Takeda Pharma ,TAK ,big Jap pharma company.

I bought the other one!  You got TSE market access or some sort of ADR/CDI?  Oh, I see its on the NYSE.  Looks like a bit more to go but may well pop one way or the other (but often up) as there's a healthy divergence there between MACD and momentum.  Good luck.  

PS: Suggests maybe pharma on the up in Asia?  I've also noticed growing strength in fundamentally sound auto in HK and Japan.  No idea why, I just follow the charts. Malaysia taking a hit so looking forward to scooping some plantations in due course.

[DurhamBorn]

13 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

On oil, most of what you're hearing is noise. Oil is very short term overbought atm, and as I said a week or so ago, badly needs a 10, maybe 15% correction. Opec is just the narrative to fit that fact, their actions are actually bullish. I hope today is is the start of it, loads of Johnny come latelys hopping on board for the train to $100 oil need to be thrown off. They didn't put in the 3 year grind we did to get here, so Mr. Market will cut off their weak hands.

I'll be interested to see the market reaction to Thursdays inventory report.

I want the oilies to stay down as long as they can and just hope BP start the share buybacks quickly.Im not sure what the hell they arewaiting for.They will be printing cash at the moment,but looks like they havent started yet as no stock exchange notices etc.Results arent until August so i hope they arent waiting until then to get started.

Iv seen no mention from Repsol etc about more buybacks,but expect Shell will start as well soon.

[reformed nice guy]

13 hours ago, RJT1979 said:

What is your conclusion 

It possibly suggests decreased disposable income but also a reduction in credit since so many new cars (the majority?) are bought on finance

[No One]

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

Its a scandal, if i want to move bank accounts, utility provider etc etc... they would never get away with such charges.

Got you by the balls.

Make no mistake I'll be switching SIPP to FREETRADE once the year term expires as I can slice my portfolio into tiny pieces at no cost per trade and half the FX. 

The only issue is Frettrade don't have the option of employer cont atm, so I will use AJ to fill it in cash (except my three positions) and in the new year do the swap.

[Hancock]

2 minutes ago, No One said:

Make no mistake I'll be switching SIPP to FREETRADE once the year term expires as I can slice my portfolio into tiny pieces at no cost per trade and half the FX. 

The only issue is Frettrade don't have the option of employer cont atm, so I will use AJ to fill it in cash (except my three positions) and in the new year do the swap.

Its got horrendous reviews, fraud is rife and 18% of its customers dont seem happy.
https://uk.trustpilot.com/review/freetrade.io