Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Bobthebuilder]

23 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

 

 

We will continue to offer one of the most appealing shareholder remunerations among Ibex-listed companies. In 2021, the dividend will be around €0.60/share (cash dividend in July after the scrip dividend paid out in January. This amount will increase gradually over the course of the Strategic Plan until it reaches €0.75/share. In 2025, shareholder remuneration will be at least €1/share, including cash payment and share buybacks to be made from 2022 onwards.

Just a snippet from the Repsol website (had a nice dividend on Friday that I wasn't expecting!).

That was a nice surprise. Overseas divi payment, be nice if all the big oilles paid one like that.

[Animal Spirits]

14 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

Tech/ Semiconductors - on this, Mr Hunter has been bang-on for the past 15 months. I can’t believe the parabolic ramp of, Nvidia.

Nvidia has gone on an absolute rip hasn't it, PE is now almost 95.

On a long term chart you can see where that outpeformance has concentrated compared with equal index weighting:

However, in the one year chart the equal weighting index has outperformed the market cap weighted index:

[Noallegiance]

4 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

This is something i think about alot since you mentioned similar a while back even though it should have been so obvious and with the pandemic, watching companies have shortages especially car companies with all the parts they require

Also talking about Tobacco companies

One of the world’s biggest cigarette makers faces a backlash after striking a £927 million deal to buy a British respiratory drug company that works on treatments for smoking-related diseases.

Philip Morris International, the maker of Marlboro cigarettes, surprised the City yesterday by revealing that it had agreed to acquire Vectura, the FTSE 250-listed business, in the biggest move by a tobacco company into the healthcare industry.

Ironic that my lasting memory of covid will be people going to shops in masks to buy cigarettes.

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Ironic that my lasting memory of covid will be people going to shops in masks to buy cigarettes.

I bought cigars with my medical exemption card around my neck

Even i cringed a bit but fuck em

[M S E Refugee]

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

I hope i live to see historians assessment of our age. 

 

It'll be in mandarin of course........

[ThoughtCriminal]

Amusing Shrinkflation anecdote

 

Bought a few hundred disposable suits we wear for removing azzy, always XXXL as im a big lump. 

 

Put one on for a job today and they were that tight i could hardly walk in them. Checked the labels, all XXXL. 

 

Popped into the supplier on the way back home to complain. 

 

Supplier: Yeah the manufacturer is using less material to cut down on costs as everythings going the roof. They're still the same size though. 

 

Me:  How the fuck are they the same size? This is now as tight as an XL used to be!

 

Supplier: (Long pause) Cos it's still XXXL. See, it's written on the box. 

🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

 

I now realise the Spinal Tap "This one goes to 11" scene was based on real life. 

 

 

 

 

[Noallegiance]

3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Amusing Shrinkflation anecdote

 

Bought a few hundred disposable suits we wear for removing azzy, always XXXL as im a big lump. 

 

Put one on for a job today and they were that tight i could hardly walk in them. Checked the labels, all XXXL. 

 

Popped into the supplier on the way back home to complain. 

 

Supplier: Yeah the manufacturer is using less material to cut down on costs as everythings going the roof. They're still the same size though. 

 

Me:  How the fuck are they the same size? This is now as tight as an XL used to be!

 

Supplier: (Long pause) Cos it's still XXXL. See, it's written on the box. 

🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

 

I now realise the Spinal Tap "This one goes to 11" scene was based on real life. 

 

 

 

 

Lockdown weight gain?

[ThoughtCriminal]

20 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Lockdown weight gain?

Ive actually lost a stone!

 

Id best lose a few more as this is now the biggest size they do. 

 

Whatever the fuck size it is. 

 

They're probably just making one size and putting different stickers on them now. 

 

Best part is the price has gone UP 🤦‍♂️🤣

[Hancock]

16 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Ironic that my lasting memory of covid will be people going to shops in masks to buy cigarettes.

Fat people (which is about half the country) with a shopping trolley full of sugary drinks, processed food, cakes and sweets ... but wearing a mask to keep them alive will be my over-riding memory.

[Castlevania]

On 09/07/2021 at 15:18, planit said:

I am getting a bit jumpy today, market is acting nervous and I think it might be due to the Delta variant. It's the speed of the growth. It could set off a drop for a few weeks. My hand is hovering on the sell button.

I realise this is not deaths and you will tell me I am stupid.

Just a random selection:

 

Edit: 30% in cash now to have a relaxing weekend. Let's see what happens next week.

In the Netherlands they’ve reintroduced some restrictions after two weeks of freedoms, so I can no longer watch the Euros final in the pub. The stupid thing is, to go to anywhere confined (a nightclub, cinema, theatre etc) you had to get a lateral flow test no more than 40 hours before entry from a government run testing for events service. The spike in positive cases is coming from asymptomatic young people taking tests for entry. 

[Castlevania]

On 10/07/2021 at 10:51, arrow said:

Yes, sort of. Shell is selling its share of the refinery to Liwathon which was (is?) owned by Barclay Rowland (private equity snapping up bargains again?). The other shares are owned by Eni and Rosneft (Gazprom indirectly) which have both been mentioned before on this thread. Eni and Rosneft/gazprom are not selling their shares. Perhaps not as much green pressure?

I thought Rosneft and Gazprom were separate? BP own a stake in Rosneft.

[Castlevania]

21 hours ago, Heart's Ease said:

 

 

We will continue to offer one of the most appealing shareholder remunerations among Ibex-listed companies. In 2021, the dividend will be around €0.60/share (cash dividend in July after the scrip dividend paid out in January. This amount will increase gradually over the course of the Strategic Plan until it reaches €0.75/share. In 2025, shareholder remuneration will be at least €1/share, including cash payment and share buybacks to be made from 2022 onwards.

Just a snippet from the Repsol website (had a nice dividend on Friday that I wasn't expecting!).

If paid in cash I assume withholding tax was applied?

[Castlevania]

19 hours ago, Animal Spirits said:

Nvidia has gone on an absolute rip hasn't it, PE is now almost 95.

On a long term chart you can see where that outpeformance has concentrated compared with equal index weighting:

However, in the one year chart the equal weighting index has outperformed the market cap weighted index:

It’s because everyone wants to mine Bitcoin 

[reformed nice guy]

24 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

It’s because everyone wants to mine Bitcoin 

AI/machine learning too

Private companies (Google, Baidu etc) but also universities are buying up cards as they are used for algorithm development

[arrow]

2 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I thought Rosneft and Gazprom were separate? BP own a stake in Rosneft.

Yes my mistake. Been trying to correct this through kiwi and Firefox but kept on hanging on saving. Possibly the blockers I'm using. Was thinking of gazprom NEFT at the time. Nominally rosneft gazprom both separate companies but both controlled by Russian gov

[dnb24]

Adam Mancini seeing a dip on the S&p at 4390-4410 and then if that holds he sees nothing pulling back until 4700. Adams a day trader but his chart calls are aupporting David Hunters macro view.

 

[Harley]

3 hours ago, arrow said:

Been trying to correct this through kiwi and Firefox but kept on hanging on saving.

I have the same issue.  Sometimes ok, other times not.  Might be the browser.

PS:  Yep, possible as I've just saved this with FF Focus which has more success than Duckduckgo.

[Harley]

One for those interested in behavioural economics type things.  I'm not sure if the following complements the subject or replaces it.

I've just listened to a paid for podcast with Ben Hunt of the Epsilon Theory.  The second one I've heard and he's on to something which he is now applying in a practical sense.  It's the idea of how narratives form and have a life and how they influence us.  Everywhere but especially in politics and (his focus) finance.

https://www.epsilontheory.com/epsilon-theory-manifesto/

"I believe that we are witnessing a structural change in markets, brought on by a witches’ brew of global debt crisis, new technology, and new regulatory regimes. By structural change I mean a fundamental shift in the market’s relationship to society and politics, as well as a sea change in the behavioral preferences of market participants. Modern portfolio theory takes both of these terms – market rules and market participant preferences – as constants, and as a result it is impossible to see the impact of structural change by looking solely through the lens of alpha and beta factor analysis. We need another lens".

His podcast interview was more about narratives and using IT to track and trace them with a view to getting an early entry into trends (trend following).  I didn't get that from a cursory read if the website but there's a lot of material there.

I liked his comment in the interview that the longer they (Wall Street) can get you to look at something, the more likely you are to buy something!

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, Harley said:

"I believe that we are witnessing a structural change in markets, brought on by a witches’ brew of global debt crisis, new technology, and new regulatory regimes. By structural change I mean a fundamental shift in the market’s relationship to society and politics, as well as a sea change in the behavioral preferences of market participants. Modern portfolio theory takes both of these terms – market rules and market participant preferences – as constants, and as a result it is impossible to see the impact of structural change by looking solely through the lens of alpha and beta factor analysis. We need another lens".

Seems like a lot of words for "You'll own nothing, eat bugs and be happy because St. Greta of Neucarbonia says the sky is angry and must be appeased" 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Seems like a lot of words for "You'll own nothing, eat bugs and be happy because St. Greta of Neucarbonia says the sky is angry and must be appeased" 

I wasn't expecting that.  Did you read that sort of thing on the website?  The interview certainly didn't suggest that, more the opposite (ie. free market, how to benefit from these changes).

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

I wasn't expecting that.  Did you read thst sort if thing on the website?  The interview certainly didn't suggest that, more the opposite (ie. free market).

No just a bit of banter mate

[leonardratso]

i notice my spam folder is starting to fill up again,mainly get rich quick shite and scams, just an anecdote really, but i did notice in the past that it went a bit wild when things were running hot economically, a  sort of modern day shoe shine boy equivalent.

[sleepwello'nights]

18 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

i notice my spam folder is starting to fill up again,mainly get rich quick shite and scams, just an anecdote really, but i did notice in the past that it went a bit wild when things were running hot economically, a  sort of modern day shoe shine boy equivalent.

There are also webuyyourgold.com sparking back into existence and Santander have started spamming me with stock market investments. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Government revenue from north sea oil has plummeted.

 

Interesting effect of green obsession? Diminishing return from old fields? Or bit of both.