Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[dnb24]

Anecdotal- dads a agency truck driver - has been mental busy up to about 4 weeks ago. Been doing Amazon work lately- shunter in there said it’s been dead for past 4 weeks. 
Yesterday was working for the largest distributors of food and fuel In uk- lady who books the loads said the past 3 weeks have been really quiet. 
 

[geordie_lurch]

Just now, dnb24 said:

Anecdotal- dads a agency truck driver - has been mental busy up to about 4 weeks ago. Been doing Amazon work lately- shunter in there said it’s been dead for past 4 weeks. 
Yesterday was working for the largest distributors of food and fuel In uk- lady who books the loads said the past 3 weeks have been really quiet.

Do they think it's due to punters not buying or more the stuff isn't making it's way into the UK / supply chain disruption?

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 hours ago, leonardratso said:

hmm, just signed into my lloyds bank account and thats littered with advertising for its own share dealing stuff now, not seen that pushed so heavily before, more shoe shining. What do they know? why push it now, is it the transitory (ie permanent) inflation? Maybe they see accounts awash with cash.

(like mine).

 

Targeted I'd expect. They're not going to advertise share dealing to the large percentage of customers who never clear their overdraft. Possibly your account has just met certain criteria. Possibly they've started a campaign to win business from people with X income and/or wealth.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

The % of hospitalisation and deaths/cases in the UK. Totally different to previous case waves. Unless that data is made up, thats what says it. That, and the empty hospitals. This winter will be carnage for sure, with flu alone, and I'm sure that'll be spun into whatever. But I really don't think there is any great drama with the vaccines. I'll leave my 2c there and take it to the corona thread,sounds fun over there!

It is the death and hospitalisation rate that matters whatever the cause. Could be the vaccines, could be mutation to less lethal variants, could be summer lessening severity or could be, as I suspect, a mixture of all three. Better treatment would also help but we hear nothing of that.

For the markets it doesn't really matter what causes the death rate to decline so long as it does. If that changes, perhaps in winter, then it will smash the markets back down.

[dnb24]

25 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Do they think it's due to punters not buying or more the stuff isn't making it's way into the UK / supply chain disruption?

Ye the shunter said something along those lines- the distribution centre said it was orders that had fallen away-  not supply chain

[reformed nice guy]

Another anecdotal for the hive mind.

Looking for energy supplier for an elderly relative as their fixed deal was finished. Been looking around, so comparing old deal to what is available. Octopus energy often come up as a good one, so here are the old prices compared to new:

Electricity:

daily standing charge - old price: 20.09p, new price 24.86p = 23.74% rise

unit price - old: 14.52p, new 18.53p = 27.62% rise

Gas:

daily charge: was 17.42p, new 26.59p = 52.64% rise

unit = old was 2.89p, new 3.43 = 18.69% rise

Overall it is roughly a 25% rise in annual energy cost.

[sleepwello'nights]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

The vaccines are very effective at preventing deaths and hospitalisation, you just have to look at the UK numbers. They can play with case numbers all they want, if the market reacts to that so be it but I don't think it will.

Perhaps seasonality is greater factor than the gene therapy injection. 

[sleepwello'nights]

6 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Another anecdotal for the hive mind.

Looking for energy supplier for an elderly relative as their fixed deal was finished. Been looking around, so comparing old deal to what is available. Octopus energy often come up as a good one, so here are the old prices compared to new:

Electricity:

daily standing charge - old price: 20.09p, new price 24.86p = 23.74% rise

unit price - old: 14.52p, new 18.53p = 27.62% rise

 

I switched to a newcomer supplier unit rate is 12.514 with a daily standing charge of 12.000 per day.

They have visions of "create a sustainable future through the
generation of energy from renewable sources namely solar panels . The company is dedicated in reducing
the CO2 emissions and addressing the greater issue of global warming and the impact it has on our"

Whatever they say the key for me is the price. Found it on Money Saving Expert. 

[leonardratso]

5 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I switched to a newcomer supplier unit rate is 12.514 with a daily standing charge of 12.000 per day.

They have visions of "create a sustainable future through the
generation of energy from renewable sources namely solar panels . The company is dedicated in reducing
the CO2 emissions and addressing the greater issue of global warming and the impact it has on our"

Whatever they say the key for me is the price. Found it on Money Saving Expert. 

which one is this, im up for a a change soon and octopussy is getting a bit pricey, im also up for my new one going bust and me going stateless for a month or 2 and forgettig to pay my bills.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

22 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Another anecdotal for the hive mind.

Looking for energy supplier for an elderly relative as their fixed deal was finished. Been looking around, so comparing old deal to what is available. Octopus energy often come up as a good one, so here are the old prices compared to new:

Electricity:

daily standing charge - old price: 20.09p, new price 24.86p = 23.74% rise

unit price - old: 14.52p, new 18.53p = 27.62% rise

Gas:

daily charge: was 17.42p, new 26.59p = 52.64% rise

unit = old was 2.89p, new 3.43 = 18.69% rise

Overall it is roughly a 25% rise in annual energy cost.

I switched last week using money saving expert for the comparison. Ended up with outfox the market. Increase in price over my old supplier was less than 10%. Actual prices vary on location but I'm sure I'm paying less than that quote.

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

The % of hospitalisation and deaths/cases in the UK. Totally different to previous case waves. Unless that data is made up, thats what says it. That, and the empty hospitals. This winter will be carnage for sure, with flu alone, and I'm sure that'll be spun into whatever. But I really don't think there is any great drama with the vaccines. I'll leave my 2c there and take it to the corona thread,sounds fun over there!

They moved the goalposts in June:

Quote

 

Hospitals have been told to change the way they collect data on patients infected with coronavirus to differentiate between those actually sick with symptoms and those who test positive while seeking treatment for something else.

The move would reduce the overall number of patients in hospital for coronavirus as until now data from hospitals has included all patients who tested positive for Covid-19, regardless of whether they had symptoms or not.

NHS England has instructed hospitals to make the change to the daily flow of data sent by NHS trusts and told The Independent that the move was being done to help analyse the effect of the vaccine programme and whether it was successfully reducing Covid-19 sickness.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-hospitals-nhs-england-data-b1862804.html

 

"analyse the effect of the vaccine programme" = make it look better than it would, if they carried on counting like they did before.

[Boon]

38 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

which one is this, im up for a a change soon and octopussy is getting a bit pricey, im also up for my new one going bust and me going stateless for a month or 2 and forgettig to pay my bills.

Yeah I'd like some recommendations as well. I am out of contract but did not find many savings, many of the big ones are all around the same price.

The cheapest ones near me seem like they have terrible customer service. Also what happens if they go bust? 

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

y.An interesting part to this cycle though,and one i didnt expect or even think about was the demand for money/credit falling very hard in the bond markets.Im trying to understand that now and add to roadmaps,but the main thing is it seems to push the cycle even more to a fiscal government injection cycle and CBs having bigger balance sheets

Is this not thinking about it from the wrong (traditional) end? I.e the government aren't responding to it, they have engineered it via their bond buying approach to reduce credit demand, and thus attain low interest rates that they can borrow against whilst using inflation to inflate away the debt?...something they couldn't have done if the gold standard still applied.

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, wherebee said:

and a gold dollar would be worth 1800+

just sayin'

So is it fair to say that this point forward/now for simple investors the 60/40 equity/bond pension should be replaced for a 60/40 equity/pm allocation?

[wherebee]

1 minute ago, MrXxxx said:

So is it fair to say that this point forward/now for simple investors the 60/40 equity/bond pension should be replaced for a 60/40 equity/pm allocation?

no, PM's are a whole different risk issue for each person based on security, location, etc etc.  I never got any when cheap because I was moving country each time, for example.

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Do they think it's due to punters not buying or more the stuff isn't making it's way into the UK / supply chain disruption?

I think the latter. Spoke to someone who imports paragliders (all made in far East) and they stated a three months waiting period, unheard of in this area, normally they struggle for customers.

[MrXxxx]

7 minutes ago, wherebee said:

no, PM's are a whole different risk issue for each person based on security, location, etc etc.  I never got any when cheap because I was moving country each time, for example.

Ok, what about pm miners/streamers that give a return and/or commods?

[Harley]

Interactive Investors are doing a free of commission deal on US shares for the next few days.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

But bear in mind pre-vaccine and during the first round of Covid populations were being 'purged' of the weakest, so come the second and subsequent rounds [Post-vaccination] a) the populations are 'fitter', and b) Covid has had natural selection acting on serotypes making it less virulent [harmful] but more transmissible....remember correlation doesn't necessarily imply cause/effect....

 

...anyway, back to making money...trying to teach myself TA, what does the Blue circles with 'D', and the Red circles with 'E' represent in the figure below? @Harley?

I assume dividends and corporate events.

[DoINeedOne]

4 hours ago, dnb24 said:

Anecdotal- dads a agency truck driver - has been mental busy up to about 4 weeks ago. Been doing Amazon work lately- shunter in there said it’s been dead for past 4 weeks. 
Yesterday was working for the largest distributors of food and fuel In uk- lady who books the loads said the past 3 weeks have been really quiet. 
 

Just saw this on twitter

[BurntBread]

26 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Just saw this on twitter

Why would anywhere be rammed on a Monday afternoon!?

Maybe she's comparing it to a Monday full of the furloughed, and the latter are now mostly having to go back to work? That, or it will be non-working people on benefits who are not showing up, but I can't see a reason they would have suddenly become poorer.

Sorry to jump on your post, DINO: it's an interesting anecdote, and is at least showing something, even if it' hard to figure out the root cause.

[HousePriceMania]

34 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Just saw this on twitter

My missus has been to Decathlon today, fully stocked and empty, the shop, not her.

[kibuc]

8 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

My missus has been to Decathlon today, fully stocked and empty, the shop, not her.

Fucking serves them right. We went to one the weekend before last - actually drove for almost an hour to get to one which had items we wanted in stock. Filled our basket, got to checkout - sorry, no cash. I threw in some expletives, left the basket in the middle of the floor and left. Then I noticed ASDA sharing the same building, selling Decathlon vouchers and accepting cash at the till. Bought the lot and send my missus back to Decathlon to complete the purchase because I couldn't be arsed to deal with the fuckers anymore. You'd imagine they must be beating customers away with a stick if they can turn away one willing to spend 300 quid.

Also, remember my wife trying (and failing) to buy that £170 waterproof jacket with cash the other day? She wandered around the town a bit longer recently and found it at £150 in a store that was actually interesed in doing business (as in: accepting cash whenever it comes). I feel like one of these stores might end up doing a bit better than the other in the long run.

 

[invalid]

9 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yep it was a cash cow for the UK for many years and it was blown on welfare it seems. They've tried tax grabs in more recent years (UK is regarded as an unstable tax regime in the industry, many third world countries are ranked higher). But the industry just goes "ok, we'll run our assets down and invest elsewhere". So you'll read about x number of billions of barrels of oil left in the North sea" but the fact is if the UK wants this energy security, there will be no tax to be gained, and will soon have to subsidy it (unless price does the same). The time to bank it us the middle of the production curve, say 1985 to 2000, not as its declining.

 

I thought it rather comical when the oil discussion came up for Scotland independence. I think some Scots truly believed that if they had control of the oil that Scotland would suddenly become like Dubai and they would all be driving Bentleys.

I'm struggling to remember the timescales but would guess at around 2005 - the oil industry were banging on about North Sea reserves falling and how the government needed to cut taxes. So the government duly did cut taxes and then not long after the 6 o'clock news was running headlines of this massive new find in the North Sea - which I understand was actually rather small despite it being called 'massive'.

Looking back, the whole thing seemed set up and played out.

 

[HousePriceMania]