Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

But you've sussed the process for this and that.  All the rest is noise!

Yes, read everything on here, knowledge given must be worth several years sat on the beach earlier than planned for most.

Though after a conversation yesterday its possible i maybe spending 9 months a year on the beach come this September, hope so as England is killing me.

 

[Harley]

Been pruning things financial today.  Taking advantage of some reasonable gains to top slice a few back to my per-stock allocation.  Maybe even able to dump some of the legacy rubbish (like ITV as mentioned up thread) soon if things stay bullish in the FTSE (an under-performing index catching up post Brexit?).

I've never done much pruning before but it's always been the right thing to do with hindsight.  The reason I can do it now is I have my watchlist, etc of other opportunities so a bit of pull combined with the push.  I might just use an FTSE ETF now to ride any upside to a BK as it's a quick cheap monitor and sell.

My current issue is that my (international) opportunities are outside what the typical ISA provides so I'm tempted to open a Saxo ISA.  They seem to have changed their pricing.  The fee is now £120 pa minimum, or 0.12% pa, so the cutoff point is a £100k portfolio.  Their exchange commission (important in an internationally focused ISA) seems to have also changed to 1.0% from 1.5%?  The stock commissions are generally OK compared to other ISAs.  Not sure if Brexit and passporting concerns will change things.   

Any views on Saxo Bank in general and for an ISA in particular?

[Hancock]

3 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Make your own tomato sauce, it will save you a few bob that you can add to that SIPP.

Pizza Express sauce is 10/10, tried doing my own but cant get near it, they've got the magic recipe.

Been leaving my dough out for a 3 days or more, yeast stinks of alcohol but it makes them even crispier.

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Make your own tomato sauce, it will save you a few bob that you can add to that SIPP.

On the subject of tomato sauce, I was shocked yesterday by how much sauce remains in the plastic bottle (destined for the bin), unless like me you cut it open and scoop it out!  A new frugal high!

[Bobthebuilder]

5 minutes ago, Harley said:

Been pruning things financial today.  Taking advantage of some reasonable gains to top slice a few back to my per-stock allocation.  Maybe even able to dump some of the legacy rubbish (like ITV as mentioned up thread) soon if things stay bullish in the FTSE (an under-performing index catching up post Brexit?).

I've never done much pruning before but it's always been the right thing to do with hindsight.  The reason I can do it now is I have my watchlist, etc of other opportunities so a bit of pull combined with the push.  I might just use an FTSE ETF now to ride any upside to a BK as it's a quick cheap monitor and sell.

My current issue is that my (international) opportunities are outside what the typical ISA provides so I'm tempted to open a Saxo ISA.  They seem to have changed their pricing.  The fee is now £120 pa minimum, or 0.12% pa, so the cutoff point is a £100k portfolio.  Their exchange commission (important in an internationally focused ISA) seems to have also changed to 1.0% from 1.5%?  The stock commissions are generally OK compared to other ISAs.  Not sure if Brexit and passporting concerns will change things.   

Any views on Saxo Bank in general and for an ISA in particular?

Hi Harley, (plumber padwan).

Interesting you say you are pruning. I have been doing the same recently with standard ftse type stocks that I have had for years, that are in profit and i no longer fancy holding going forward. Getting the cash into a ISA from a normal account is a part of it as well.

Was looking for a good temporary home for it, I like the idea of a single fund for quick selling. Interesting.

[Bricormortis]

Elderly up North refusing the Pfizer jab " they'd rather wait for the English one ! "

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Good post of yours.  Went for a long jomp across the hills with the dog yesterday.  A surge of that old belligerent energy, that wry smile, and a reminder you play your own game, no others.  Whatever, no fecks given.  Eff all the doubling down sub-standard technocrats with their Canute like failures and pathetic hubris.  Yes, the decay of institutions.  This virus will run until it too burns itself.  They should have learnt to leave well alone.  Battles are won at the margins and that's the place to be.  Now is the time to hunker down, to progress with stealth and daring.  To be grey but resolute and walk your own path as all around you loses its.

And the clip that sums it all up.  An absolutely perfect summation.  It still chills me to watch.  Girls, money, freedom, or whatever!  This is sooo not over!

 

[Bobthebuilder]

16 minutes ago, Harley said:

On the subject of tomato sauce, I was shocked yesterday by how much sauce remains in the plastic bottle (destined for the bin), unless like me you cut it open and scoop it out!  A new frugal high!

A small drop of water in the bottle, lid back on and shake.

[Bricormortis]

Back on topic I have been wondering if the Bitcoin bubble bursting could precipitate a run on Tesla / Fangs, precipitating BK.  Anythings possible I guess.

[Harley]

3 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

A small drop of water in the bottle, lid back on and shake.

I think Aldi already do that! 

[Talking Monkey]

3 hours ago, Errol said:

I've been thinking this as well. My gut tells me something is not right. It's almost like people are being herded into Bitcoin/Crypto (and away from gold or anything else). CNBC and other media outlets are full of bitcoin this and bitcoin that.

Also there is the incessant nonsense about Bitcoin versus gold, when hardly any gold 'bugs' would even mention it (they don't care). But you can barely look at a gold post on Twitter without someone replying with 'bitcoin is better' etc.

It's also becoming increasingly strange that every article or media slot about bitcoin features a picture of bitcoin depicted as a gold coin (!).

I'll be the first to admit I don't understand this crypto stuff but it seems an epic bubble, it's going to smash a lot of people if it goes pop as I understand a lot of the retail punters are heavily concentrated in it

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

I'll be the first to admit I don't understand this crypto stuff but it seems an epic bubble, it's going to smash a lot of people if it goes pop as I understand a lot of the retail punters are heavily concentrated in it

IF. 

[Talking Monkey]

36 minutes ago, Harley said:

Been pruning things financial today.  Taking advantage of some reasonable gains to top slice a few back to my per-stock allocation.  Maybe even able to dump some of the legacy rubbish (like ITV as mentioned up thread) soon if things stay bullish in the FTSE (an under-performing index catching up post Brexit?).

I've never done much pruning before but it's always been the right thing to do with hindsight.  The reason I can do it now is I have my watchlist, etc of other opportunities so a bit of pull combined with the push.  I might just use an FTSE ETF now to ride any upside to a BK as it's a quick cheap monitor and sell.

My current issue is that my (international) opportunities are outside what the typical ISA provides so I'm tempted to open a Saxo ISA.  They seem to have changed their pricing.  The fee is now £120 pa minimum, or 0.12% pa, so the cutoff point is a £100k portfolio.  Their exchange commission (important in an internationally focused ISA) seems to have also changed to 1.0% from 1.5%?  The stock commissions are generally OK compared to other ISAs.  Not sure if Brexit and passporting concerns will change things.   

Any views on Saxo Bank in general and for an ISA in particular?

I use them for options trading they seem OK, would HL not do for the international opportunities

[Talking Monkey]

19 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Back on topic I have been wondering if the Bitcoin bubble bursting could precipitate a run on Tesla / Fangs, precipitating BK.  Anythings possible I guess.

It could do i reckon, that thought occurred to me yesterday they're both extreme bubbles

[Harley]

15 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

I use them for options trading they seem OK, would HL not do for the international opportunities

Ta.  That's a big fat no for HL and co - very limited international market access (ignoring FTSE CDIs but these are also very limited).  AJ Bell the same.  II is a bit better but pricey for international trading and still not sufficient market access coverage.  Saxo are more expensive on holding costs but the average commission is less.  Exchange fees are the same at 1%, important as you cannot hold forex in an ISA so cannot trade into Forex holdings.  I thought the forex commission used to be 1.5% so was pleased to check back today and see 1%.  But £10 a month minimum (and no credit like with II) is more than my mobile charge!  That said, no-one seems to do the Moscow exchange but at least Saxo seem to do the Nordics and (fuller) Asia.

[Barnsey]

 

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

I don't care what anyone's stance is on the virus frankly, but this B117 strain is now being detected across much of the US in folks with no travel history.

As the melt up gathers exponential pace, especially with stimulus being upped to $2000 and forbearance likely to be extended, be careful. Yes markets are forward looking but the States isn't remotely ready for what we're going through here, 6-8 weeks from now is the estimate from Danish CDC equivalent.

We might not make it to the policy mistake stage at this rate.

Aha! Gotcha! You may have made the classic modern-day faux-pas of thinking that actual, real, physical events have any inertia when it comes to nudging stock market needles!

Mass unemployment?

Companies going bust?

Worldwide disease?

War drums in the distance?

New fuckin highs, baby. New fuckin highs.

Based on the above, the only real world thing to topple the bubbles will be if world peace breaks out!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Hi Harley, (plumber padwan).

Interesting you say you are pruning. I have been doing the same recently with standard ftse type stocks that I have had for years, that are in profit and i no longer fancy holding going forward. Getting the cash into a ISA from a normal account is a part of it as well.

Was looking for a good temporary home for it, I like the idea of a single fund for quick selling. Interesting.

I've got a downer on ISAs as they often restrict me away from the better international exchanges so my ISA looks a bit lackluster.  That said maybe this is a time for the FTSE to play catchup so maybe I'm telegraphing an contrary signal!  

DYOR, but I use ISF (but they lend out stocks) and VUKE (they, the last time I looked, don't lend out stocks) for the FTSE.  I was a bit shocked at the low current yield as my income share portfolio does better but this is a gain trade not a div one.  I've also been buying US Treasuries to mop up any cash(!) although my value trade alerts have been quite busy lately: 4xHK, 1xUK, 1xAustralia, 2xUS, 1xFrance, 1xRussia, 1xSingapore and 1xCanada (or US) in January alone.  Several more but I passed on them due to financials and their sectors.  So mostly basic materials.  Maybe Beijing Biden will help the HK market recover despite Taiwan!

[Barnsey]

4 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Aha! Gotcha! You may have made the classic modern-day faux-pas of thinking that actual, real, physical events have any inertia when it comes to nudging stock market needles!

Mass unemployment?

Companies going bust?

Worldwide disease?

War drums in the distance?

New fuckin highs, baby. New fuckin highs.

Based on the above, the only real world thing to topple the bubbles will be if world peace breaks out!

I hear you!

Let's see what happens when this B117 spreads like wildfire and Biden tries to lock down 74 million Trump voters...

[harp]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Good post of yours.  Went for a long jomp across the hills with the dog yesterday.  A surge of that old belligerent energy, that wry smile, and a reminder you play your own game, no others.  Whatever, no fecks given.  Eff all the doubling down sub-standard technocrats with their Canute like failures and pathetic hubris.  Yes, the decay of institutions.  This virus will run until it too burns itself.  They should have learnt to leave well alone.  Battles are won at the margins and that's the place to be.  Now is the time to hunker down, to progress with stealth and daring.  To be grey but resolute and walk your own path as all around you loses its.

Whats a jomp? Or do you mean yomp? If so you were a Royal Marine? If it's jomp then you were a Royal Marine officer
And if you were Army, you know full well its called a tab!

[Harley]

2 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

I hear you!

Let's see what happens when this B117 spreads like wildfire and Biden tries to lock down 74 million Trump voters...

The US is the biggest market and my least favourite in fundamental and financial terms, and that was before the bananas.  Very high valuations, lots of intangibles keeping balance sheets solvent, high debt ratios, and low solvency (current) ratios.  IMP, far better out there if you can access it.

[Hancock]

2 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I'm of the same mind. I told my MP I'm removing myself from the tax net after the latest lockdown vote. Not paying them to imprison me.

This is why i've dumped so much into my SIPP as to avoid income tax and by default getting child tax credits. Got a decent batch of money arriving soon once invoices are paid up to drop into the SIPP, then can save another 20-30k by the end of summer .. so should have 40/50K ish in cash if there is an epic crash in the coming months. Not sure whether to gamble that there will be or not.

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Ta.  That's a big fat no for HL and co - very limited international market access (ignoring FTSE CDIs but these are also very limited).  AJ Bell the same.  II is a bit better but pricey for international trading and still not sufficient market access coverage.  Saxo are more expensive on holding costs but the average commission is less.  Exchange fees are the same at 1%, important as you cannot hold forex in an ISA so cannot trade into Forex holdings.  I thought the forex commission used to be 1.5% so was pleased to check back today and see 1%.  But £10 a month minimum (and no credit like with II) is more than my mobile charge!  That said, no-one seems to do the Moscow exchange but at least Saxo seem to do the Nordics and (fuller) Asia.

All the stuff international we talk about here eg exxon, chevron, nutrien, K&S, telenor, telia etc I've bought on HL, would they be not be in the correct or safest format as I recall we discussed something about risks of holding stuff through a nominee account

 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Bricormortis said:

Elderly up North refusing the Pfizer jab " they'd rather wait for the English one ! "

Off topic but they're probably shit scared that squaddies have been enlisted to jab them with the vaccine.

All this talk of getting the army involved has ended any 0.0000000000000000001% chance i had of taking the vaccine. The thought of some dopey squaddie fresh out the nick for scrapping out in town the previous night;  sticking needles into my arm to inject some of Bill Gates magic juice inside ... does not appeal in the slightest.

They really have overplayed this squaddies are heroes lark to think they're even vaguely capable of such a task.

Back to topic .....

[Bobthebuilder]

8 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Off topic but they're probably shit scared that squaddies have been enlisted to jab them with the vaccine.

All this talk of getting the army involved has ended any 0.0000000000000000001% chance i had of taking the vaccine. The thought of some dopey squaddie fresh out the nick for scrapping out in town the previous night;  sticking needles into my arm to inject some of Bill Gates magic juice inside ... does not appeal in the slightest.

They really have overplayed this squaddies are heroes lark to think they're even vaguely capable of such a task.

Back to topic .....

Personally I would trust the squaddies over anyone else.