Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Majorpain]

3 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

For Wind 

As @DurhamBorn has said its windy in the UK

What fantastic info, i knew that average wind speeds were higher at sea but would never have thought offshore wind turbines would be orders of magnitude more productive than land ones.

[nirvana]

7 minutes ago, Loki said:

BRRRRRRRRRR I think, it just doesn't stop the deflation baked in already leading to BK?

ok that's prompted me to look at the diary...this wednesday 'FOMC meeting minutes' that'll be for last month......then 3 weeks later 27th first statement of the year......get your nose out.....

 

[Loki]

I love that GIF 

[nirvana]

11 minutes ago, Loki said:

I love that GIF 

yeah it's up there with Buffet and BTFD

I found this one last week

 

 

[Talking Monkey]

46 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Next two rounds probably.They will keep printing until a couple of months after 3% inflation,so id say autumn.

I wonder how soon after that the relentless squeeze on benefits will start

[Loki]

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Glad someone's happy!

[sancho panza]

On 31/12/2020 at 18:21, Democorruptcy said:

I'm not sure what I'm looking at there and what conclusion I'm supposed to draw.

Is that 10 Yr yield rising plotted against DXY dropping?

Yeah, that's right.It was along the lines of the trend is your friend.I see dollar dropping some more( and that's how we're positoned as well).I was going to add gold to the chart because the medium term top in gold,bottom in yields occurred around the start of august.

DXY's losing streak has beenrunning since April 20.

[Alifelessbinary]

This market is too much for me to monitor on a daily basis, so I’ve switched back to picking broad themes and setting up regular payments (cost averaging). I’m also staying well diversified as this helped me ride 2020 without much hassle. 

The main thing this brilliant thread has helped me to do is up my Gold allocation and also beef up my commodities.

Ive now taken profits in a few areas and have invested them in defensive Investment Trusts. My main goal is simply to beat inflation moving forward. Easier said than done!

 

 

 

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

Glad someone's happy!

Just laughing at @5min OCD speculator's pic but out of reps

[leonardratso]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Wow, BTC daily candle wick sub £20k.  Where the wick goes, the price often follows?

he-he, heading there soon.

at a closed cinema near you (this fall).

[StrugglingMillennial]

Just putting this out there. 

Do you think this has a place in the next cycle?

https://www.theguardian.com/journey-towards-a-plastic-free-future/2020/dec/04/sustainable-abundant-and-low-cost-why-lignin-might-just-be-a-miracle-manufacturing-material

[Democorruptcy]

48 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Yeah, that's right.It was along the lines of the trend is your friend.I see dollar dropping some more( and that's how we're positoned as well).I was going to add gold to the chart because the medium term top in gold,bottom in yields occurred around the start of august.

DXY's losing streak has beenrunning since April 20.

I'm still unclear about this. Which trend is supposed to be my friend? Are you implying because DXY has been in a downward trend since April then gold has been in a rising trend since then? It hasn't though has it? It's done nothing for months since after the 10 Yr yield bottomed out. Hence my question about where do you see the 10 Yr going from here.

I expected gold to do a lot better this year before the 10 Yr turned but it's done little more than the 2011 peak. In proportion to the drop in the 10 yr for the GFC, it's not gone up enough. Maybe Bitcoin has taken some of the juice?

[Loki]

13 minutes ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Just putting this out there. 

Do you think this has a place in the next cycle?

https://www.theguardian.com/journey-towards-a-plastic-free-future/2020/dec/04/sustainable-abundant-and-low-cost-why-lignin-might-just-be-a-miracle-manufacturing-material

Looks bloody great to be fair, assuming accurate and not over-hyped

Only thing is wood/paper-mills produce the amount they do on the back of fossil fuels, I imagine it's a pretty energy intensive business.

[sancho panza]

22 hours ago, JMD said:

So no government released excess death rate figures? What a surprise! I was looking forward to those figures as my go-to statistics. SP, what are your thoughts on the latest Corona mutation? Is it really having any real impact on virus spread or is it just a convenient 'narrative device' to help keep scaring the masses?                                                                                                                                                                                                    Be very much interested also if you have a theory on why Asia has done so much better than the West. It is an aspect of this 'pandemic' that really troubles me, when for example comparing the UK to Japan and the alarming difference in death rates between the two countries. Ie I'm thinking the Japan low death stats can be believed, achieved whilst not shutting their own economy down - so is the crucial differentiator the difference in population health/diet between the two nations or is something else going on?

It's been known for years that viruses mutate into weaker forms so as not to kill the host.Mortalitiy rates are normal for this time of year-our repsiratory season generally peaks Jan/Dec.Hospital admissions aren't that exceptional either according to Dr Craig who knows her onions.

It says it all to me that the city of Wuhan had a relatively normal new years eve party from what I saw on twitter.That and they've filled their oil tanks at sub$40 oil.

I thinkt the big difference potentially could be obesity.Obesity is linked to diabetes type 2,heart failure,hypertension and a lot other comorbidities that predispose people to die of covid. @dnb24 may have a more nuanced view than my rather basic take.

https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/14321?ln=en

Only 3.6 percent of Japanese have a body mass index (BMI) over 30, which is the international standard for obesity, whereas 32.0 percent of Americans do. A total of 66.5 percent of Americans have a BMI over 25, making them overweight, but only 24.7 percent of Japanese.

11 hours ago, The Idiocrat said:

 That reminds me, I meant to post MoneyWeek's tips for 2021 from their last issue. It's a long article but this is their "experts'" buy list. What stood out for me is how much they were into UK banks in the article. Would be interesting to see what those stocks look like at the end of the year. We should do a DOSBODS index!

I honestly dont know who's buying UK banks at this point.

[sancho panza]

19 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I'm still unclear about this. Which trend is supposed to be my friend? Are you implying because DXY has been in a downward trend since April then gold has been in a rising trend since then? It hasn't though has it? It's done nothing for months since after the 10 Yr yield bottomed out. Hence my question about where do you see the 10 Yr going from here.

I expected gold to do a lot better this year before the 10 Yr turned but it's done little more than the 2011 peak. In proportion to the drop in the 10 yr for the GFC, it's not gone up enough. Maybe Bitcoin has taken some of the juice?

I see UST yields heading higher into the BK.I'm not sure on BK timing but anythings between March(unlikely) or October.I think inflation will be running by then.

 

 

[sancho panza]

Some Wolftake.

Warning signs abound.

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/01/01/paper-dollars-in-circulation-globally-spike-amid-hot-demand-but-a-mexican-bank-after-run-ins-with-the-us-can-no-longer-unload-its-hoard-of-dollars/

The amount of “currency in circulation” – the paper dollars wadded up in people’s pockets and purses, stuffed under mattresses, or packed into suitcases and safes overseas – jumped again in the week ended December 30 to a new record of $2.09 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, where currency in circulation is a liability, not an asset. This was up by 16%, or by $293 billion, from February before the Pandemic. The amount has doubled since 2011:

This amount of currency in circulation is a function of demand – and that demand has been red hot: US Banks have to have enough paper dollars on hand to satisfy demand at ATMs and bank branches. Foreign banks will also request paper dollars from their correspondent banks in the US, or return unneeded cash to them.

IThe surge of paper dollars is a sign of hoarding, not of increased payments. In the US, the share of paper dollars for payments has been declining for years, replaced by electronic payment methods, such as credit and debit cards, PayPal, Zelle and similar systems, all kinds of smartphone-based payment systems, the automated clearinghouse (ACH) system, and checks every now and then.

During periods of uncertainty, people load up on cash, as they have done leading up to Y2K, during the Financial Crisis, and now during the Pandemic.

 

 

 

[sancho panza]

 

Go back 50 or 750 pages in this thread and there was an excellent disucssion about the USD reserve status.Conclusion was that the USD had one more crisis in it iirc.It's no coincidence that thsi thread has a lot of gold bug posters I guess.

WOlf takes up the topic.

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/12/31/us-dollar-as-global-reserve-currency-amid-feds-qe-and-us-government-deficits-dollar-hegemony-in-slow-decline/

The global share of US-dollar-denominated exchange reserves – US Treasury securities, US corporate bonds, US mortgage-backed securities, etc. held by foreign central banks – fell to 60.5% in the third quarter, according to the IMF’s COFER data release. This is the lowest since 1995. Over the past six years, the dollar’s share has been dropping at a rate of about 1 percentage point per year:

The dollar’s 20-year decline.

[Loki]

Wolf is excellent

[sancho panza]

COnsumers are paying down credit in the UK at the same time as QE/money supply/mortgage approvals rising..............warning signs...meh!!!

 

 

[sancho panza]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

Wolf is excellent

He's that good I donate monthly which is soemthing for a tight git like myself.Better than moneyweek to be honest by some distance except without the property section which I like to look at.

[JREWING]

On 01/12/2020 at 09:02, arrow said:

Cattle Prod's posts are invaluable. They are informative and provide insight into the oil/gas industry.

This thread is valuable in that it is (mostly) the opposite of other share forums. On the whole, there aren't stock pumpers and share shorters trying to get scare people into selling or buying. I do admire traders, but posts saying they made x profit on such a share aren't that useful. Good for you that you made a profit, but I'd much rather read Cattle Prod's view of oil/gas reserves, depletion, supply problems, oil fields and companies.

As I've said, this thread is valuable in that it discusses macro trends and investments, there are other threads that were created to discuss trading, The fact that there are few posting, if any, in those threads shouls tell you something.

Hope you've douched..

No clinging on's wanted by Cock Prod...

Nicely put. Lovely words. Well done.

 

Now go polish your cock ring.

Round two commuth..

Mwah.. Hehehe..

[leonardratso]

durrr?

has sir been at the sherry again?

[Harley]

6 hours ago, Alifelessbinary said:

.....and also beef up my commodities.

How you doing that if I may ask?  Through commodity equities?

PS:  Agree with the time aspect - need to find a pace/approach consistent with your life - why I don't trade atm.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

...

I thinkt the big difference potentially could be obesity.

Me too (in UK too), and maybe other bad health practices like US drug taking.