Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[wherebee]

7 minutes ago, Harley said:

Me too (in UK too), and maybe other bad health practices like US drug taking.

In the USA I suspect lung health is shocking as well.  People drive everywhere, which means lots of bad breathing issues.

Now in Asia they have the pollution problems in spades, but I don't know if the basic fitness from walking everywhere is a more significant factor

[Harley]

6 hours ago, Loki said:

Only thing is wood/paper-mills produce the amount they do on the back of fossil fuels, I imagine it's a pretty energy intensive business.

Several seem to have woodchip based biomass as a side gig.

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

COnsumers are paying down credit in the UK at the same time as QE/money supply/mortgage approvals rising..............warning signs...meh!!!

 

 

Exactly as we exected.Governments are monetizing back the disinflation to get it out of the economy and into the BOE cupboard marked do not open 0.5% coupon.

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Point on the windy map: Ireland is windy too, but the seas are too deep apart from a few shoals in the Irish Sea. What the UK has in the North Sea is a perfect combination of shallow sea and wind. Especially the southern north sea off England, that's shallow out to the Dutch border. It will be carpeted with wind turbines, you already have to dodge cables and helicopter clearing zones etc to do any oil and gas work out there now.

Exactly and the key thing is people are looking at the Dogger Bank/Dutch side for wind and simply thinking the whole world is like that.Shell will end up controlling the Dutch side and using for hydrogen,SSE/Equinor,maybe some Bp the UK side .I think in a year or so people will wake up and nature based solutions will become the real winners.I think Bp know this and its why they are investing more and taking control of the carbon offset through trees business.I see that as the winner from all this in the end,though finding ways to invest direct in it is proving very difficult.

 

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly and the key thing is people are looking at the Dogger Bank/Dutch side for wind and simply thinking the whole world is like that.Shell will end up controlling the Dutch side and using for hydrogen,SSE/Equinor,maybe some Bp the UK side .I think in a year or so people will wake up and nature based solutions will become the real winners.I think Bp know this and its why they are investing more and taking control of the carbon offset through trees business.I see that as the winner from all this in the end,though finding ways to invest direct in it is proving very difficult.

 

This iShares Global Timber & Forestry ETF was very volatile in recent years. They aren't making any more land! 

[Barnsey]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly as we exected.Governments are monetizing back the disinflation to get it out of the economy and into the BOE cupboard marked do not open 0.5% coupon.

Looks like we're getting much more £££ from Sunak as soon as today, I realise much of it is just sustaining things for business but my goodness, money supply soaring, suppliers of services and goods decreasing, the reasonably well off continuing to build up their wealth given restrictions, the path is becoming ever clearer. If and when the BK arrives, the guns are already loaded and ready, opportunists will be fast to act.

We're already in the hole, and due to unique nature of this crisis the wealthy are doing ok. I don't want to sound defeatist but with money this cheap it does indeed look like a distribution cycle to sort things out. It is what it is I suppose.

[nirvana]

10 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I'm still unclear about this. Which trend is supposed to be my friend?

the trend is your friend till the bend at the end.....

[nirvana]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

This amount of currency in circulation is a function of demand – and that demand has been red hot

that's not really true is it? It's a function of the printing press.....if USD was so much in demand why has Euro rocketed in value? ie DXY dumped it's arse

[dnb24]

10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

It's been known for years that viruses mutate into weaker forms so as not to kill the host.Mortalitiy rates are normal for this time of year-our repsiratory season generally peaks Jan/Dec.Hospital admissions aren't that exceptional either according to Dr Craig who knows her onions.

It says it all to me that the city of Wuhan had a relatively normal new years eve party from what I saw on twitter.That and they've filled their oil tanks at sub$40 oil.

I thinkt the big difference potentially could be obesity.Obesity is linked to diabetes type 2,heart failure,hypertension and a lot other comorbidities that predispose people to die of covid. @dnb24 may have a more nuanced view than my rather basic take.

https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/14321?ln=en

Only 3.6 percent of Japanese have a body mass index (BMI) over 30, which is the international standard for obesity, whereas 32.0 percent of Americans do. A total of 66.5 percent of Americans have a BMI over 25, making them overweight, but only 24.7 percent of Japanese.

I honestly dont know who's buying UK banks at this point.

Clinically I think there are a number of things at play for the differences in Asian numbers and Western numbers-

1. Primarily the dry tinder from UK 2019.

2. Lack of care- there have been more private home deaths this year than ever recorded- nhs shut down=death. 

2. I think BAME- lack of vit D- has a role due to increase in cardiac issues/diabetes etc make them low hanging fruit. Asian countries are more homogenous and therefore essentially adapted for their climate.

2. Obesity as per SP states (links in with vit D also).

However, i believe if we were not at a cross roads for western state finances, and therefore politics, then the media wouldn’t have spun this as they have. Excess deaths and NHS load was equal to or worse in 1999/2000, 2007/2008, winter 2018/18 yet no one remembers them. 
Which brings me to my fourth point- Japan is in a very different place to the West in terms of state financial and fiscal policies- it is arguably not necessary for Japan to shut down its economy to turn things towards an industrial cycle they are already there and have a population who are already insular in most aspects of life. Why I say this is because we can see direct Western government influence on media/PCR testing/testing availability/shutting the NHS down through staff shortages when it suits them. To turn a ship like the western economy and To change government policy you need to ensure the plebs are looking the wrong way for a fair amount of time. 
Barnsley mentions above thread that the BOE and FED have prepared for the BK, and I believe that, they’ve used covid to preload the coffers ready to take up the slack when the BK comes. The stats have allowed them to do this- fear has enabled them. 
Still it could be worse- they could have sent all men under 40s into a 2-3 year war!! 
 

[Hardhat]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

though finding ways to invest direct in it is proving very difficult.

 

Buy some woodland to hold in your SIPP?

[dnb24]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

though finding ways to invest direct in it is proving very difficult.

Dosbods fund???

[JMD]

18 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

 

interesting video and images

 

For Solar

 

For Wind 

As @DurhamBorn has said its windy in the UK

 

 

 

 

 

Those integration costs he breaks down are scary. In particular, he highlights an aspect i was kinda already aware of - however if i understand him correctly, there is more to it. Those 'network inefficiency' costs he mentions increase exponentially - i.e. the more we increase the overall renewable supply %, the (hidden/unaccounted) cost of providing the backup supply increases at a even greater rate (backup supply required because renewable supply itself is intermittant).

Therefore total power costs get more and more expensive - its almost as though we will eventually need say 50% of our supply infrastructure (gas/nuclear) sittting idly, just waiting for when the sun don't shine or the wind don't blow (ie winter or nighttime!). I wonder how the history books will judge people like Gore and Thunberg.  

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, JMD said:

Those integration costs he breaks down are scary. In particular, he highlights an aspect i was kinda already aware of - however if i understand him correctly, there is more to it. Those 'network inefficiency' costs he mentions increase exponentially - i.e. the more we increase the overall renewable supply %, the (hidden/unaccounted) cost of providing the backup supply increases at a even greater rate (backup supply required because renewable supply itself is intermittant).

Therefore total power costs get more and more expensive - its almost as though we will eventually need say 50% of our supply infrastructure (gas/nuclear) sittting idly, just waiting for when the sun don't shine or the wind don't blow (ie winter or nighttime!). I wonder how the history books will judge people like Gore and Thunberg.  

History is written by the winners

I got called an idiot for daring to suggest power will be more expensive in the future

Hey ho.

[JMD]

12 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Mortalitiy rates are normal for this time of year-our repsiratory season generally peaks Jan/Dec.Hospital admissions aren't that exceptional either according to Dr Craig who knows her onions.

I thinkt the big difference potentially could be obesity. Obesity is linked to diabetes type 2,heart failure,hypertension and a lot other comorbidities that predispose people to die of covid. @dnb24 may have a more nuanced view than my rather basic take.

https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/14321?ln=en

Only 3.6 percent of Japanese have a body mass index (BMI) over 30, which is the international standard for obesity, whereas 32.0 percent of Americans do. A total of 66.5 percent of Americans have a BMI over 25, making them overweight, but only 24.7 percent of Japanese.

I honestly dont know who's buying UK banks at this point.

Thanks SP, i thought as much. The differences in country death rates are mostly related to obesity/diet/co-morbitities. Something we knew/deeply suspected last February if i'm not wrong? 

But this is never discussed as being the most important factor in shielding the vulnerable. Instead we are all triggered into being 'all in it together' - or as i prefer to say: a community based 'joint enterprise killing of the economy'!

 

(i note that Neil Ferguson is still working for the government, despite having to resign last year for breaking lock-down rules, he's even interviewed on tv these days. So Ferguson's transgression has been forgiven but Cummings will never be... curious thing that!?) 

[JMD]

11 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Point on the windy map: Ireland is windy too, but the seas are too deep apart from a few shoals in the Irish Sea. What the UK has in the North Sea is a perfect combination of shallow sea and wind. Especially the southern north sea off England, that's shallow out to the Dutch border. It will be carpeted with wind turbines, you already have to dodge cables and helicopter clearing zones etc to do any oil and gas work out there now.

Interesting. I guess if(when?) Scotland gets its independence we in the remainder of the UK will no longer get the north sea tax revenues, but at least we can still continue to enjoy our big-oil company divis.

Does anyone know if Scotland would automatically get all UK north sea waters after independence, or how does it work?

 

Btw, I'd compliment you CP, but i don't want Panda on my back (ooh er' misses!) in 4.5 weeks time... i believe that is the time lag he is operating on!?

[JMD]

2 hours ago, dnb24 said:

Clinically I think there are a number of things at play for the differences in Asian numbers and Western numbers-

1. Primarily the dry tinder from UK 2019.

2. Lack of care- there have been more private home deaths this year than ever recorded- nhs shut down=death. 

2. I think BAME- lack of vit D- has a role due to increase in cardiac issues/diabetes etc make them low hanging fruit. Asian countries are more homogenous and therefore essentially adapted for their climate.

2. Obesity as per SP states (links in with vit D also).

However, i believe if we were not at a cross roads for western state finances, and therefore politics, then the media wouldn’t have spun this as they have. Excess deaths and NHS load was equal to or worse in 1999/2000, 2007/2008, winter 2018/18 yet no one remembers them. 
Which brings me to my fourth point- Japan is in a very different place to the West in terms of state financial and fiscal policies- it is arguably not necessary for Japan to shut down its economy to turn things towards an industrial cycle they are already there and have a population who are already insular in most aspects of life. Why I say this is because we can see direct Western government influence on media/PCR testing/testing availability/shutting the NHS down through staff shortages when it suits them. To turn a ship like the western economy and To change government policy you need to ensure the plebs are looking the wrong way for a fair amount of time. 
Barnsley mentions above thread that the BOE and FED have prepared for the BK, and I believe that, they’ve used covid to preload the coffers ready to take up the slack when the BK comes. The stats have allowed them to do this- fear has enabled them. 
Still it could be worse- they could have sent all men under 40s into a 2-3 year war!! 
 

dnb24, great information if i may say. And thanks for clearly linking the corona virus to the macro environment. I think this is correct and its the reason why i think the virus topic/discussion is important for this thread.

I wonder, will this p'L'andemic ever go away... maybe it will next mutate next into a Chinese/Russian cyber-virus that we will all in turn be asked to be very very scared of, rinse-repeat, etc, etc. (I jest of course)

[Talking Monkey]

2 hours ago, dnb24 said:

Clinically I think there are a number of things at play for the differences in Asian numbers and Western numbers-

1. Primarily the dry tinder from UK 2019.

2. Lack of care- there have been more private home deaths this year than ever recorded- nhs shut down=death. 

2. I think BAME- lack of vit D- has a role due to increase in cardiac issues/diabetes etc make them low hanging fruit. Asian countries are more homogenous and therefore essentially adapted for their climate.

2. Obesity as per SP states (links in with vit D also).

However, i believe if we were not at a cross roads for western state finances, and therefore politics, then the media wouldn’t have spun this as they have. Excess deaths and NHS load was equal to or worse in 1999/2000, 2007/2008, winter 2018/18 yet no one remembers them. 
Which brings me to my fourth point- Japan is in a very different place to the West in terms of state financial and fiscal policies- it is arguably not necessary for Japan to shut down its economy to turn things towards an industrial cycle they are already there and have a population who are already insular in most aspects of life. Why I say this is because we can see direct Western government influence on media/PCR testing/testing availability/shutting the NHS down through staff shortages when it suits them. To turn a ship like the western economy and To change government policy you need to ensure the plebs are looking the wrong way for a fair amount of time. 
Barnsley mentions above thread that the BOE and FED have prepared for the BK, and I believe that, they’ve used covid to preload the coffers ready to take up the slack when the BK comes. The stats have allowed them to do this- fear has enabled them. 
Still it could be worse- they could have sent all men under 40s into a 2-3 year war!! 
 

Considering the number of deaths are no more than a bad flu season it does hint at another agenda. Therefore to me it seems a BK is almost being engineered to then justify the truly massive printing that is to be done. The amount of time and effort the US took to get the second stimulus done leads me to believe any very significant further expansion of the Fed balance sheet would need a huge event.

Linking into both the globalist agenda to decimate the middle classes along with the maxim the market hurts the most people, then a BK almost seems an inevitability.

[Harley]

18 minutes ago, JMD said:

dnb24, great information if i may say. And thanks for clearly linking the corona virus to the macro environment. I think this is correct and its the reason why i think the virus topic/discussion is important for this thread.

I wonder, will this p'L'andemic ever go away... maybe it will next mutate next into a Chinese/Russian cyber-virus that we will all in turn be asked to be very very scared of, rinse-repeat, etc, etc. (I jest of course)

Indeed.  As I often say, political economy, but I never truly expected (internalised) this intensity when first really starting to say it with earnest last year.  Sometimes hard to know which is the head and which the tail so yes, both linked and relevant.  Plandemic or whatever, it is the new blatantness and intensity that are key.  2021 is the year of financial repression via regulation, tax, and every other lever.  I repeat this to myself over and over again and yet still have so much left undone, a rabbit in the headlights, a continual failure to fully internalise what is going on and going to happen, always on the back foot.  The worse kind of battle, one where you think this might be the day.

[Harley]

4 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Considering the number of deaths are no more than a bad flu season it does hint at another agenda. Therefore to me it seems a BK is almost being engineered to then justify the truly massive printing that is to be done. The amount of time and effort the US took to get the second stimulus done leads me to believe any very significant further expansion of the Fed balance sheet would need a huge event.

Linking into both the globalist agenda to decimate the middle classes along with the maxim the market hurts the most people, then a BK almost seems an inevitability.

The printing will be via a new currency, a new type of money, RIP a store of value, a unit of account, and so forth.  Forget the FED, the unwinding goes right back to before Locke and co.

[dnb24]

29 minutes ago, JMD said:

dnb24, great information if i may say. And thanks for clearly linking the corona virus to the macro environment. I think this is correct and its the reason why i think the virus topic/discussion is important for this thread.

I wonder, will this p'L'andemic ever go away... maybe it will next mutate next into a Chinese/Russian cyber-virus that we will all in turn be asked to be very very scared of, rinse-repeat, etc, etc. (I jest of course)

I personally don’t think (more like hope) it will be spun out further than the end of 2021. I think (hope) once industry and inflation spark, the job will have been done and they will need us to more freely move around and interact for inflation to do its magic in the West over the next 10 years. Though I can see the benefits of locking people down to stimulate a drive of pent up inflation.

From medical aspect with intro of Lateral flow tests/vaccine/change in PCR cycles over the next 3-6 months i my hope is increased as it gives the west a get out of jail card as these should show direction of change- ie magically sars coV-2 disappears and Healthcare goes back to normal staffing, less covid, more pneumonia, less need to have separate wards etc. Media lose interest, odd story here and there- and if we get a big economic downturn- the public/media will probably have got over covid and be more worried about putting food on the table.

I’m not sure a BK is being engineered as such, my interpretation is that they (just as DB/David Hunter)  predicted & know the fractious state the west is in- and a cycle change was required-I think they’ve taken advantage of something to do this. But like Harley I struggle working out whether it’s  the head or tail!?!

[Barnsey]

Just a quick anecdotal comment regarding my ongoing house search, quite surprised at the number of properties returning to market recently due to failed chains/mortgages being declined due to furlough etc. Estate Agents being quite frank about the situation. Definitely ramping up now (West Mids), and I'm not sure a stamp duty holiday extension will solve this in the foreseeable.

[Barnsey]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-breakingvi/breakingviews-third-lockdown-entrenches-britains-great-divides-idUSKBN29A12Y

That prospect also justifies more generous short-term government support. Companies which borrowed to survive in 2020 have less capacity to take on fresh debt. The government may therefore have to write off past loans, while extending other measures like income support and mortgage holidays. The 4.6 billion pounds of business grants unveiled by the Treasury on Tuesday morning is little more than a start.

[Chewing Grass]

Pouring money into a deflationary depression, its what the textbooks say would have been the answer to the Great Depression, perhaps they are wrong.

[jamtomorrow]

54 minutes ago, Harley said:

Indeed.  As I often say, political economy, but I never truly expected (internalised) this intensity when first really starting to say it with earnest last year.  Sometimes hard to know which is the head and which the tail so yes, both linked and relevant.  Plandemic or whatever, it is the new blatantness and intensity that are key.  2021 is the year of financial repression via regulation, tax, and every other lever.  I repeat this to myself over and over again and yet still have so much left undone, a rabbit in the headlights, a continual failure to fully internalise what is going on and going to happen, always on the back foot.  The worse kind of battle, one where you think this might be the day.

Wonder how many will realise the track has changed as lockdown becomes crackdown

[Barnsey]

And another...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55535546

Business groups welcomed the new help as a good start but warned the money still wouldn't be enough to stop many firms from collapse.

The help is in addition to business rates relief and the furlough scheme which has been extended until the end of April.

Mr Sunak said he would consider whether or how to extend support packages in its Budget on 3 March.

"The Budget early in March is an excellent opportunity to take stock of the range of support we have put in place and set out the next stage of our economic response," he said.

Note: 3rd March provides ample time to prevent 45 day mandatory period of redundancy consultations for firms employing >99 staff. As I previously mentioned, working assumption has to be an extension or modification.