Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Is it mid 1929?

 

[harp]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

BK all but guaranteed IMO when you see the price action today alone, straight up.

 

Yep, up 28k just today! Crazy. Bitcoin has saved my arse big time. I'm still down on my reflation shares as I shot my load WAY to early. But I'm up massively on BC. I'm expecting PM's to fall next week along with our share prices.

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

On 29/12/2020 at 20:15, DurhamBorn said:

@Cattle Prod put in charge of exploration  @Yellow_Reduced_Sticker put in charge of expense accounts  Given the ADR isnt following i think we can take it that its a mistake,especially as BP found no gas in a massive Australian prospect today.

 

 

...Yeah i would turn up at the board meeting wearing my NICE £3 car-boot sale jacket and trouser suit with ...NO spreadsheet BS, just a RIGOROUS pep talk with pictures, tips and handy money saving knowhow!

 

Like my most recent...

 

NO worries here about vegetable shortages from the EU or supply chain bollox up, I just nip over the road and to a farmers field that has MASSES of rapeseed - the leaves are much like kale!

 

I've been told to help myself and the supply should last ALL winter!

 

MUST say I'm getting sick of cabbage soup!

 

 

[Majorpain]

3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

BK all but guaranteed IMO when you see the price action today alone, straight up.

 

It followed the same parabolic trajectory 3 years ago:

$0000 - $1000: 1789 days

$1000- $2000: 1271 days

$2000- $3000: 23 days

$3000- $4000: 62 days

$4000- $5000: 61 days

$5000- $6000: 8 days

$6000- $7000: 13 days

$7000- $8000: 14 days

$8000- $9000: 9 days

$9000-$10000: 2 days

$10000-$11000: 1 day

$11000-$12000: 6 days

$12000-$13000: 17 hours

$13000-$14000: 4 hours

$14000-$15000: 10 hours

$15000-$16000: 5 hours

$16000-$17000: 2 hours

$17000-$18000: 10 minutes

$18000-$19000: 3 minutes

 

Not sustainable and probably topping, although Tesla for some reason keeps coming back with the cheap money sloshing about the system.

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

 

...Yeah i would turn up at the board meeting wearing my NICE £3 car-boot sale jacket and trouser suit with ...NO spreadsheet BS, just a RIGOROUS pep talk with pictures, tips and handy money saving knowhow!

 

Like my most recent...

 

NO worries here about vegetable shortages from the EU or supply chain bollox up, I just nip over the road and to a farmers field that has MASSES of rapeseed - the leaves are much like kale!

 

I've been told to help myself and the supply should last ALL winter!

 

MUST say I'm getting sick of cabbage soup!

 

 

Awesome. There's your winter veg sorted. Just need to chat the farmer up to allow you to stick some spuds in the edges and allow you to shoot vermin (rabbits, pigeons) with an air rifle. John Seymour would be proud

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/12/31/bp-s-caspian-sea-project-emerges-as-russia-s-rival-for-european-gas-market

Gas is approaching a huge bull market and could be one of the best performing assets over the next 10 years.BP need to stop paying down debt and buy back shares while they are under £3.50.The green smokescreen keeping their prices down by convincing everyone to ditch wont last forever.One of the huge failings in big oil is they pay off debt at the bottom and buy shares at the top,it should be the other way around.

It went mostly under the radar ,but Asian LNG spot prices hit their highest levels since 2014 on the last day of 2020.One more year of over supply,then it should be off to the races.2023 the start of the long cycle run up.

[Errol]

Russia just started supplying Serbia through TurkStream:

 

Serbia opens Russian-Turkish gas project portion

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/serbia-opens-russian-turkish-gas-project-portion/

[working woman]

10 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I don't think wokedom can survive an economic downturn. It is very much the sort of thing people worry about when there isn't anything else to worry about or campaign for. 

I remember when the UK first went into Lockdown last year, someone on Dosbods said all the woke stuff would disappear, which it did for a while, then reappear as things start to improve, which it slightly has. There seems to have been less over Xmas as many people focused on that. It will be interesting to see what happens now Xmas is over. 

1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

A farmers field that has MASSES of rapeseed - the leaves are much like kale!

Interesting to know if times ever get desperate.  Yes, it apparently is a Brassica.  I grow Kale and bake it in olive oil, it turns out like crispy seaweed. Delicious.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I work for a large clothing retailer, I'm in Tier 3.  From Monday, 5 out of 10 staff, myself included, have been put back on furlough for a few weeks. Two people never even came off Furlough after November's lockdown. It is the biggest store in the area, taking the most money and will be operating on minimal staff. Opening less hours 9-4pm, just two Managers all day and one sales assistant for 4hrs. Sundays opening 4 hrs,  just 2 staff,  toilets upstairs. 

I plan to spend my time on Furlough doing Veganuary, not with the aim of going Vegan, but to find a few healthy, lower cost, meat free recipes in case food prices start to rocket.

[Viceroy]

25 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

@working woman don't do vegan, it'll weaken you! Get a pig, fatten and kill it, or if you're in a flat, chicken/guinea pigs 👍🏻

Guinea pigs, interesting! Rabbits too tho you’d need extra fat.
Yes if going vegan I suggest B12 shots otherwise you risk deficiency which is v common amongst vegans/vegetarians and causes depression, balance+memory problems, numbness...

I’ve stocked up on tins of fish/meat and coconut oil which can last quite a while and doubles as skin cream/hair conditioner and toothpaste. Henri ‘Papillion’ Charriere survived solitary confinement on Devils Island because he was smuggled coconut to supplement his starvation diet.

I love this story of survival against the odds; https://www.theguardian.com/books/2020/may/09/the-real-lord-of-the-flies-what-happened-when-six-boys-were-shipwrecked-for-15-months

Kale and spinach are high in oxalates so I would go easy as they can cause kidney stones.https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/liam-hemsworth-gives-up-vegan-diet-after-suffering-from-kidney-stones/WR3SFUE6JC62AG6NTJN4Y6K5WI/ 

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Good to see renewed BK talk, we should be on our toes.

With you there.  Been looking at the charts.  Either already technically toping on the monthlies (but could always go higher!) or MACD is turning ready to do a bullish upside cross.  Very bipolar with few stocks in between.  But a voice is saying "a MACD cross or kiss" a bit like before March.  If a kiss then it could be a big fall like before.  The other collaborating concern is the large uptick in prices in November.  Even the safe havens look weak.  So yes, on our toes. 

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

im all in on the ftse

I'm surprised you could find enough of our beloveds for a diversified portfolio.  I've been full on international.

[Chewing Grass]

BBC ranting on about  how 1% of people own 23% of all wealth in the UK and how it needs to be 'redistributed'.

Interviewed some bloke from the Resolution Foundation.

Now I found this deliberately misleading via the 1%, almost like they have used it to dilute the numbers so more people can be taxed, this distracting from the 0.01% who really pull the strings.

Fact, taking property and private pensions (easy to count for lazy officials) there are in excess of 3.6 Million Millionaires in the UK (as of 2018). But a lot will have mortgages and are not 'retired'.

Oversimplified by the BBC to the point of 'forming opinion'.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-5339709/Number-millionaire-households-surges-29-2-years.html

[ThoughtCriminal]

Are we allowed to call this madness a bubble yet? 

[DurhamBorn]

10 hours ago, Errol said:

Russia just started supplying Serbia through TurkStream:

 

Serbia opens Russian-Turkish gas project portion

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/serbia-opens-russian-turkish-gas-project-portion/

Notice how these countries all see supply as vital for their growth,ie we expect to use more and need to.This is what the woke press and fund managers are missing.These pipelines though are only part of the story.The real growth in gas use is in Asia,and that means LNG mostly,at least for many many years.The cycle should see demand rise in most places so that prices start to increase as people compete for supplies to be delivered.There is plenty of gas,but getting it to the growth areas is what will force the prices up.Russia wants to supply Europe for political reasons,the counter to that will be Azer and BP,and also a growing supply from Egypt.ENI big players.Repsol could be big winners in Asia,if they can get better terms with Indonesia etc.

I think big oil is happy for countries like the UK to go green/electric/hydrogen,because it allows them to learn all the technology,start to build scale,and then slowing roll out across other markets well into the future.In the meantime prices will be increasing where they will be making massive amounts of cashflow.

I dont look at when most people will have an EV in the UK,i look at when most people will have a fridge in India and Indonesia.

[Harley]

26 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Are we allowed to call this madness a bubble yet? 

[ThoughtCriminal]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

In calling it a bubble, or in buying it? 😉

[Harley]

7 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

In calling it a bubble, or in buying it? 😉

A blow off top or just the doors? 

PS:  If a top, just exactly what in?  If a ring of the bell, then for a lot more?  

[DurhamBorn]

This is a good article for anyone wanting to understand why a contrarian approach at extremes usually proves the correct route to take.Simply avoiding a few extreme valutation can make a massive difference over the longer term.

I have several times sold an entire holding when it became the biggest in an index,BAT and GSK were two prime examples,both really big holdings,both sold out of 100% when they were the biggest stocks in the FTSE,both bought back now at 52% less and 40% less.GSK topped out 20 years ago over £20 just as i left,pure coincidence im sure 

Worth a read if people have time,especially people trying to learn contrarian investing.

https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articles/674-buy-high-and-sell-low-with-index-funds.html

[Democorruptcy]

8 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Good to see renewed BK talk, we should be on our toes. I think it'll be American mostly, but will therefore effect oil. Read somewhere recently that Ftse is around 11xearnings while s&p is around 33x. I like those ratios as im all in on the ftse

Do you intend to keep holding the oil through any BK? Temporarily short the S&P to cover it?

Talking of PE's a FTSE table here. A lot of banks and builders the top end. VOD?!

http://topstocktable.com/FTSE-100/FTSE100-PE.html

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

This is a good article for anyone wanting to understand why a contrarian approach at extremes usually proves the correct route to take.Simply avoiding a few extreme valutation can make a massive difference over the longer term.

I have several times sold an entire holding when it became the biggest in an index,BAT and GSK were two prime examples,both really big holdings,both sold out of 100% when they were the biggest stocks in the FTSE,both bought back now at 52% less and 40% less.GSK topped out 20 years ago over £20 just as i left,pure coincidence im sure 

Worth a read if people have time,especially people trying to learn contrarian investing.

https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/publications/articles/674-buy-high-and-sell-low-with-index-funds.html

Waiting to buy at extremes doesn't sound very laddery.

[DurhamBorn]

16 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Waiting to buy at extremes doesn't sound very laddery.

Sell at extremes,its a great article on why index funds/trackers can be terrible investments at times as crowding happens.Ladders should always be set when a stock is already well down from highs.Most of my ladders hit in the sell off in March,lucky some fell through 2 or 3 at once.I have very few in place now as im happy with allocation and the odd slice then buy im doing is more to keep diverse and add the odd stock.Only place i have ladders now really is in some goldies that i sold and will buy back if they fall.My main thoughts now are how much cash to carry,and how much to put in US treasuries when the pound hits $1.40 

If someone isnt allocated then they should be putting ladders in place now and hoping for pull backs that will probably come,even without a BK in those sectors.

[Loki]

@DurhamBorn Are your ladders set with a complex formula or is it just per drop of x%?

[DurhamBorn]

10 minutes ago, Loki said:

@DurhamBorn Are your ladders set with a complex formula or is it just per drop of x%?

Just a simple %.I usually set 5 at 8% moves.We have dealing charges etc or id set them closer for smaller tranches.Most were set on stocks already down 30%+.During March i did remove some though and used the capital elsewhere.For instance i bought a lot more Mosaic outside of the ladders and bought more Playtech, BP,Repsol,BT,TEF and VOD outside of ladders.

Its very rare i buy anything once something falls below bottom ladder.So holdings in the Scottish Play are still down 55% after divs and werent added to during March.

[RJT1979]

What is BK?

[Castlevania]

5 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

What is BK?

Big Kahuna. A massive prolonged stock market sell off.