Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Hardhat]

5 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Wonder if we will be able to buy GDX and GDXJ again soon?

You can buy the Sterling versions as GDGB and GJGB respectively.

[wherebee]

5 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Alternatively it's hugely more expensive than this time last year.

Where do you see the yield on US 10 yr going at the moment?

This.

 

I sold a chunk of GDXJ when it hit 60 (just lucky timing, I happened to be online and thought it was time for profit taking).  

I wouldn't see anything over 35 as cheap, frankly, as you have the annual fee and if you do think gold is going to da moon why not get a bigger direct investment in a miner and get the dividends directly?

[wherebee]

OK - anyone got any views on wheat/pork/ agri producers that might be work a grab in the BK?

 

Graincorp

Australian Agri Corp

Nufarm

 

All seem at 5 year lows.  Won't that sector also benefit from inflation?  Or will the input cost (fuel for farming, fertilizer, chems, etc) go up and impact negatively?

[Democorruptcy]

You don't need to pick share price winners, set a platform up:

Quote

The founder of investment platform AJ Bell has made almost £17million from selling a chunk of his stake.

Andy Bell, who started the company in Manchester in 1995, yesterday sold 3.6m shares at 460p each.

His colleague Fergus Lyons, managing director of the online investment division, sold 1.8m shares worth £8.1million.

It is understood that the pair sold down their stakes to meet demand from a new institutional investor, who wanted to buy in. It is not yet known who the investor is.Bell, a 54-year-old father of four, owes almost the entirety of his wealth to the company he founded and now leads.

The Liverpool-born entrepreneur had a modest upbringing and after working as an actuary and sports coach for a few years, set up AJ Bell with his friend Nicholas Littlefair.

Lyons, 59, joined in 2000 after several years as a banker. He was rewarded for his years of service with a chunky stake when the company floated in 2018 for £675million. Since then, its value has almost tripled to £1.9billion.

Lyons still owns a 3.8 per cent stake, worth £72.8million while Bell’s remaining 22.7 per cent stake is worth £430.5million.

AJ Bell’s shares dipped 2.6 per cent, or 12.5p, to 462.5p yesterday.

The platform, which competes with the likes of Hargreaves Lansdown and Interactive Investor, now has 295,305 customers, up 27 per cent over the year, and looks after £56.5billion of savers’ money.

It has fared well through the pandemic, as investors took advantage of stock market volatility. 

Though he still owns more than a fifth of the shares, Bell has cashed in by selling almost £8million worth in August, and £23million a year ago.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-9100049/A-happy-New-Year-AJ-Bell-founder-cashes-17m-shares.html

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, wherebee said:

OK - anyone got any views on wheat/pork/ agri producers that might be work a grab in the BK?

 

Graincorp

Australian Agri Corp

Nufarm

 

All seem at 5 year lows.  Won't that sector also benefit from inflation?  Or will the input cost (fuel for farming, fertilizer, chems, etc) go up and impact negatively?

I like the sector,it will be able to put up prices with inflation and a bit extra.Its not an easy sector to buy into though.I was looking at some of the big fish producers in Norway etc during the sell off in March .Its about time the likes of HL offered Aussie stocks direct though,and Japan.They might buy on the phone though.

[Harley]

46 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I like the sector,it will be able to put up prices with inflation and a bit extra.Its not an easy sector to buy into though.I was looking at some of the big fish producers in Norway etc during the sell off in March .Its about time the likes of HL offered Aussie stocks direct though,and Japan.They might buy on the phone though.

I went through the relevant  industries last month (including Nordic fisheries!) and found almost nothing of sound value.  Maybe I'm looking for something too sound!  I'll have a look at the list from @wherebee and any others if asked.  Actually, maybe I"ll take another look anyway.

BTW I've recently completed a thorough screen of the international markets.  Some 170 worth looking at (maybe a lot less (c.50) after further deep dives) but most are a bit pricey since the November bounce.  I can post some stats if folk are interested. 

It's make or break now as most of my watchlist have re-traced their last falls so they either turn on that resistance or break out. That said, the November bounce, although technically significant, offers a cautious lesson in percentages given how far things have fallen.  Some still have plenty of momentum.  Year end though will do what year end does!

In the meantime I'll just trade some unsound companies and look at other asset classes, which are also challenging atm.  Defo an opportunity to step back and think about it all.

Hope everyone manages to have some great celebrations tonight.  Cheers!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

You don't need to pick share price winners, set a platform up:

 

Good on them.  One of the cheapest ISA stocks platforms by far atm, although limited like HL and most of the others.  The Saxo ISA offers maybe the best market access but at a seemingly very high price in the various fees.  Nice to hear if I've got that wrong. 

[Harley]

10 hours ago, wherebee said:

This.

 

I sold a chunk of GDXJ when it hit 60 (just lucky timing, I happened to be online and thought it was time for profit taking).  

I wouldn't see anything over 35 as cheap, frankly, as you have the annual fee and if you do think gold is going to da moon why not get a bigger direct investment in a miner and get the dividends directly?

I've been crap in all these years on my ins and outs of GDX and co.  A tough one for me to trade or hold systematically.  So for me, I'll try the individual company route but just concentrating on financials and technicals as all that stuff in the ground malarkey is just that for me.  But where to start?  Maybe trawl though the posts here, especially @sancho panza, or just rely on my screens, which currently have netted me one.  Or Santa has yet to visit 'cause "they" don't believe!

[RJT1979]

Yes it’s just the ramblings of a gold bug. That vile site is full of bitter xenophobic nut jobs anyway. The last place I’d go for advice. 

Posted on hpc

[Democorruptcy]

42 minutes ago, Harley said:

Good on them.  One of the cheapest ISA stocks platforms by far atm, although limited like HL and most of the others.  The Saxo ISA offers maybe the best market access but at a seemingly very high price in the various fees.  Nice to hear if I've got that wrong. 

HL wouldn't accept pension transfers unless an IFA recommended it. AJ Bell would, even against IFA advice. I have wondered if that might cause them a compensation problem later on and thought the bosses selling shares might be a sign. It's probably not enough business to matter that much but HL must have had a reason for turning money away.

[Harley]

32 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

Yes it’s just the ramblings of a gold bug. That vile site is full of bitter xenophobic nut jobs anyway. The last place I’d go for advice. 

Posted on hpc

[Harley]

21 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

.......It's probably not enough business to matter that much but HL must have had a reason for turning money away.

Dodgy customer?

[Harley]

37 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

That vile site is full of bitter xenophobic nut jobs

Wrong, Harley plays the guitar, badly yes but he's not bitter.

[Bobthebuilder]

31 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

HL wouldn't accept pension transfers unless an IFA recommended it.

They did mine without an IFA.

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

They did mine without an IFA.

Under £30k pot so you weren't forced to be fleeced?

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Under £30k pot so you weren't forced to be fleeced?

Yes.

[leonardratso]

2 hours ago, RJT1979 said:

Yes it’s just the ramblings of a gold bug. That vile site is full of bitter xenophobic nut jobs anyway. The last place I’d go for advice. 

Posted on hpc

which one you talking about here? i dont see any past reference?

go to admit, i find 90 odd % of pundits are real arseholes with ulterior motives.

[spunko]

2 hours ago, RJT1979 said:

Yes it’s just the ramblings of a gold bug. That vile site is full of bitter xenophobic nut jobs anyway. The last place I’d go for advice. 

Posted on hpc

What a psycho...

 

[DurhamBorn]

I run several portfolios on HL for family members so its a lot of business for them,but they refused to accept a pension transfer (DB) even when i threatened to move all accounts.However once the IFA i used (playing half dumb and that id leave the money with them at 2.2% fees until i pegged) did the transfer HL were happy to launch a transfer within a few minutes of the funds landing in the Transact account.At that point it was personal pension so liability left with IFA,not that id ever chase them,even if i lost the lot.

Its a huge scam,forcing people to pay multi thousands to transfer and then most have a nightmare.Iv several friends who were going to transfer and now cant.One because they cant get an IFA to do it,and also because funds have cut transfer values,one by 60% as pension is underfunded.One had an IFA who told him to wait until 50,no rush etc,now the guys fund has cut the transfer by 60%.My experience showed me most IFAs have zero understanding of how doors can be slammed shut.Most of this is due to a few dumb steel workers though and the usual idiot and greedy ones who transfer a pension into a Sipp investing in some property speculation that is really a field in Colombia.

[The Idiocrat]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its a huge scam,forcing people to pay multi thousands to transfer and then most have a nightmare.Iv several friends who were going to transfer and now cant.One because they cant get an IFA to do it,and also because funds have cut transfer values,one by 60% as pension is underfunded.One had an IFA who told him to wait until 50,no rush etc,now the guys fund has cut the transfer by 60%.My experience showed me most IFAs have zero understanding of how doors can be slammed shut.Most of this is due to a few dumb steel workers though and the usual idiot and greedy ones who transfer a pension into a Sipp investing in some property speculation that is really a field in Colombia.

Interesting. I’ve been trying for over 3 months to get a transfer value from the pension scheme of a big utility - I only worked there for 5 years back in the 90s. They keep fobbing me off and tell me the actuary’s looking at it but never produce anything and I have to chase. This might explain it, although I fear the transfer value will be much less now than it would have been. I’m going to push it with the pension trustees next, as one is a former boss of mine. Wankers.

[CVG]

40 minutes ago, The Idiocrat said:

Interesting. I’ve been trying for over 3 months to get a transfer value from the pension scheme of a big utility - I only worked there for 5 years back in the 90s. They keep fobbing me off and tell me the actuary’s looking at it but never produce anything and I have to chase. This might explain it, although I fear the transfer value will be much less now than it would have been. I’m going to push it with the pension trustees next, as one is a former boss of mine. Wankers.

No idea how effective they are (not a great employer apparently) but you may try

https://www.thepensionsregulator.gov.uk/en/contact-us/scheme-members-who-to-contact

[DurhamBorn]

52 minutes ago, The Idiocrat said:

Interesting. I’ve been trying for over 3 months to get a transfer value from the pension scheme of a big utility - I only worked there for 5 years back in the 90s. They keep fobbing me off and tell me the actuary’s looking at it but never produce anything and I have to chase. This might explain it, although I fear the transfer value will be much less now than it would have been. I’m going to push it with the pension trustees next, as one is a former boss of mine. Wankers.

Big utility should be ok,if the actuary's are looking then they might come back with as its underfunded though and put a 10%/20% reduction.One relative i was looking at would of got their money early April,and would of been investing then,so double hit,of course the IFA saying to them dont worry can do it next year blah blah. 

I was very lucky as mine was with Glaxosmithkline and they couldnt of been better,44 x pension transfer value + a free new CETV every month.I know a few packaging line operators who did 35 years who got £800k ,incredible really.

[The Idiocrat]

27 minutes ago, CVG said:

No idea how effective they are (not a great employer apparently) but you may try

https://www.thepensionsregulator.gov.uk/en/contact-us/scheme-members-who-to-contact

Thank you, will give them a try.

[The Idiocrat]

17 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Big utility should be ok,if the actuary's are looking then they might come back with as its underfunded though and put a 10%/20% reduction.One relative i was looking at would of got their money early April,and would of been investing then,so double hit,of course the IFA saying to them dont worry can do it next year blah blah. 

I was very lucky as mine was with Glaxosmithkline and they couldnt of been better,44 x pension transfer value + a free new CETV every month.I know a few packaging line operators who did 35 years who got £800k ,incredible really.

Thanks DB, I’ll push them and see how it goes. I’m 55 next year, do you think they might be trying to put it off for some reason related to that?

[Errol]

5 hours ago, Harley said:

I've been crap in all these years on my ins and outs of GDX 

I've not bothered going in or out. Just buy more regularly.

Would not even consider selling any of it until gold is over $5000 an ounce.