Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

What is BK?

Big Kahuna (financial bust)

@DurhamBorn thank you

[Talking Monkey]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Are we allowed to call this madness a bubble yet? 

In terms of shoeshine moment on bitcoin I had my own last week where I traded in and out of it for the first time on Wednesday and Thursday as I was a bit bored. Never ever touched or looked at it before. Made me laugh even as I was trading it, if a luddite like me is having a go it can't be far off. Might be a few months and it could go a lot higher.

I absolutely will not be having another go. Hardly anybody gets out at the top of a bubble.

[jamtomorrow]

3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Are we allowed to call this madness a bubble yet? 

Beats me why this is news - there's been a mania after every previous halving. Is this one different in some significant way?

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

Beats me why this is news - there's been a mania after every previous halving. Is this one different in some significant way?

Its doubled in a fortnight. 

 

More people piling in than ever before. 

 

I'd say that's different. 

[JMD]

On 02/01/2021 at 10:51, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Hopefully this isn't wishful thinking but I don't think wokedom can survive an economic downturn. It is very much the sort of thing people worry about when there isn't anything else to worry about or campaign for. Probably needs to be a big enough downturn to impact the public sector and silicon valley.

Agreed... Maslows (hierarchy of needs) coming right at yer! *                                                                          Perhaps I'm bordering on the fanciful, but maybe the new basement dwellers will be the woke?!                                                 (*btw not you personally yaddayaddayadda)

[JMD]

14 hours ago, working woman said:

I remember when the UK first went into Lockdown last year, someone on Dosbods said all the woke stuff would disappear, which it did for a while, then reappear as things start to improve, which it slightly has. There seems to have been less over Xmas as many people focused on that. It will be interesting to see what happens now Xmas is over. 

I think the wokeness will continue for some time yet. Along with all the other pretend/invented racial/social/moral 'divisions' set to Balkanise Western societies even further. Moreover, I dought whether a new politics (despite me really wishing it could) can accommodate all these many separate 'tribes', after all that experiment has already been run in Africa, and it just ends in never ending friction/violence. Depressing stuff to hear I know, but if the cycle theory of history is correct, at least the infant's of today can look forward to a good future (so long as the China problem is dealt with)... Oh, Happy new year everyone!!

[Loki]

Anyone looking for politics or politicians to save the day is in for a long wait followed by extreme disappointment. 

[JMD]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Notice how these countries all see supply as vital for their growth,ie we expect to use more and need to.This is what the woke press and fund managers are missing.These pipelines though are only part of the story.The real growth in gas use is in Asia,and that means LNG mostly,at least for many many years.The cycle should see demand rise in most places so that prices start to increase as people compete for supplies to be delivered.There is plenty of gas,but getting it to the growth areas is what will force the prices up.Russia wants to supply Europe for political reasons,the counter to that will be Azer and BP,and also a growing supply from Egypt.ENI big players.Repsol could be big winners in Asia,if they can get better terms with Indonesia etc.

I think big oil is happy for countries like the UK to go green/electric/hydrogen,because it allows them to learn all the technology,start to build scale,and then slowing roll out across other markets well into the future.In the meantime prices will be increasing where they will be making massive amounts of cashflow.

I dont look at when most people will have an EV in the UK,i look at when most people will have a fridge in India and Indonesia.

All excellent points DB. But you mention Egypt and that reminds me that some financial reporting I have read over last couple years have predicted big things for Egypt, even saying it will be biggest GDP gainer this decade. The commentators didn't really elaborate. But have you DB and others here any thoughts about this? It is an interesting story economically and maybe some here might have some ideas investment wise. But I also wonder what this could mean in a geopolitical/macro way? I'm no expert but I do like thinking about these things (some may have noticed!?) Ie might it become/start of a possible Western route/pivot away from 'old' ME?

[JMD]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Its doubled in a fortnight. 

 

More people piling in than ever before. 

 

I'd say that's different. 

After every halving there is a big rise followed by a fall. Apparently according to the BTC commentators the 'difference this time' is that institutional money has begun to invest for the long term, eg some tech/insurance cos, hedge funds. The hope I think is more of the same over future months, plus the holy grail of pension funds joining in. And there is I think a noticeable growing investor sentiment, with an increasing number of buyers thinking it will become an important part of any future monetary reset, seeing it as a kinda digital gold... so maybe a bubble or maybe a rational hedge? Declaration: I own some.

[jamtomorrow]

3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

More people piling in than ever before. 

It just doesn't look like that (yet). Had a quick look on CM at what active addresses are doing - we still haven't breached levels of activity seen in the 2017 mania, nor does the run-up look as spikey (again: yet):

So it doesn't look like a *retail* mania, but there's clearly a wall of fiat moving in. Institutional? Some of the buying patterns seen on exchanges over past few days would support that thesis.

The other difference of interest is timing - we're ~ 1 year ahead of previous halving-cycle manias. Which means either the mania has arrived early for some reason, or it has *much* further to run before it peaks next year.

None of this is mentioned in mainstream reporting or commentary, which typically doesn't get much further than "number go up, must be a bubble" - well of course it's a bubble, it's Bitcoin and it's post-halving year.

Edit to add: with apologies to @JMD because I typed this before I saw your most recent post, which says much the same thing more straightforwardly!

[Loki]

I've just been having a play on the ychart site.  As an exercise, would any of the big brains mind giving their thoughts on Grid Metals Corp (GRDM)?

I don't want to turn the thread into a "Should I buy this stock?" thread, so I won't post any others, but the feedback would be helpful in seeing if I'm looking at the right data in the right way.

[headrow]

On 31/12/2020 at 17:36, DurhamBorn said:

 

I enjoyed my usual new years eve tradition today,collecting the big fat divi from Imperial  

 

Got £550 off Imperial, will get the same in 3 months time. 

Was going to reinvest it but i've decided i'm keeping it and walking in the council tax office in april with the £1100 in cash and fucking that thing off for another year.

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

All excellent points DB. But you mention Egypt and that reminds me that some financial reporting I have read over last couple years have predicted big things for Egypt, even saying it will be biggest GDP gainer this decade. The commentators didn't really elaborate. But have you DB and others here any thoughts about this? It is an interesting story economically and maybe some here might have some ideas investment wise. But I also wonder what this could mean in a geopolitical/macro way? I'm no expert but I do like thinking about these things (some may have noticed!?) Ie might it become/start of a possible Western route/pivot away from 'old' ME?

Egypt was the first to make peace with Israel ,they have good relations with the west,they will likely be the key country in the region.Vodafone decided not to sell their business there and instead invest there.Likely the UK will do deals now Brexit is done for food imports.The army in charge is sensible,once the crazy side of Islam took over and started to throw gays and christians off buildings they took back control in an instant.I agree a very interesting place to invest if routes can be found.Lets face it,they created one of the worlds great ,maybe greatest civilisation's.Here in the UK we have a long history with Egypt and likely moving forward they will want to expand on that.ENI and BP are two plays on Egypt,and VOD.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

18 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Good to see renewed BK talk, we should be on our toes. I think it'll be American mostly, but will therefore effect oil.

 

Timely Announcement from MR 'Crystal ball' himself:

 

"2021 Forecast: 80% Stock Market Decline"

 

MR Crystal ball... AKA... Contrarian macro strategist David Hunter forecasts the worst stock market downturn in the post-WWII era.

 

He sees the stock market rising in the next few months and then declining 70-80%.

 

This bust will NOT be limited to the U.S., but will be a global deflationary bust.

 

He sees the Federal Reserve will step in and expand the monetary base to $20 trillion leading to high inflation in the years ahead.

 

With the high inflation, he forecasts gold will rise to at least $10,000 and silver to $300. PAGING @Errol

 

Lovely Jubbly, I will be able to buy my last ladders in BP & SHELL on the CHEAP! 

 

I wonder if it will be quick and spectacular as the last crash in March? Anyhoo...Folks get ya spare cash and crash-helmets ready! 

 

[Loki]

I just want it to happen, with the hopes a worldwide clusterfuck confines COVID to the historybooks (Until next time)

[Loki]

Silver rockets at the open.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

It just doesn't look like that (yet). Had a quick look on CM at what active addresses are doing - we still haven't breached levels of activity seen in the 2017 mania, nor does the run-up look as spikey (again: yet):

So it doesn't look like a *retail* mania, but there's clearly a wall of fiat moving in. Institutional? Some of the buying patterns seen on exchanges over past few days would support that thesis.

The other difference of interest is timing - we're ~ 1 year ahead of previous halving-cycle manias. Which means either the mania has arrived early for some reason, or it has *much* further to run before it peaks next year.

None of this is mentioned in mainstream reporting or commentary, which typically doesn't get much further than "number go up, must be a bubble" - well of course it's a bubble, it's Bitcoin and it's post-halving year.

Edit to add: with apologies to @JMD because I typed this before I saw your most recent post, which says much the same thing more straightforwardly!

No apologies necessary Jamtomorrow. I think it Interesting how my personal thoughts tally with your actual fact based more technical post. I was late into BTC, but did a deep dive into researching crypto/blockchain in summer, but then still hesitated, but luckily I took the plunge before it's recent big run up. Re those exchange/addresses you detail, indicating perhaps a larger size buy trend occuring, the cynic in me would say that the Christmas period is exactly the period when such covert buying might begin?!

[sancho panza]

@Cattle Prod anotehr cracker of a hcart from Dr Clare Craig for you.That £400bn could have been spent much more productively or maybe not even spent at all.

https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-not-so-exceptional-year-of-covid/

There is no mention of whole-year mortality which allows us to see total mortality in perspective and takes into account the low figures from July to September.

Basically the government is deliberately concealing that the so-called ‘pandemic’ is of no significant magnitude. In the ‘best years’ from 2010 to 2019, the chance of an over-65 surviving the year was 95.7 per cent. In 2020 it dropped almost imperceptibly to 95.5 per cent. For reference, in 2006-2009 it was 95.2 per cent. Did we panic from 2006-9? I don’t think so. 

[JMD]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Egypt was the first to make peace with Israel ,they have good relations with the west,they will likely be the key country in the region.Vodafone decided not to sell their business there and instead invest there.Likely the UK will do deals now Brexit is done for food imports.The army in charge is sensible,once the crazy side of Islam took over and started to throw gays and christians off buildings they took back control in an instant.I agree a very interesting place to invest if routes can be found.Lets face it,they created one of the worlds great ,maybe greatest civilisation's.Here in the UK we have a long history with Egypt and likely moving forward they will want to expand on that.ENI and BP are two plays on Egypt,and VOD.

Thanks DB. Unfortunately I can't now find a link to the Egypt article I mentioned but from memory I think GDP growth was predicted to double or more this decade!! However I do remember it being non specific, leading me to make the general observation that most internet financial commentators usually say much more than they can possibly ever know, but equally some know far more than they choose to say... I think for example, Egypt is one of those investment areas hiding in plain site. As you say it's interesting geographically and politically.                                                                                                                                                                     Anyway, back on topic, and as I have my full allocation of oilies, I note Egypt also has a good chemical industry - so any recommendations - just for fun/not investment advice of course - from those perhaps knowledgeable about the Egypt region would be greatly received? 

[JMD]

55 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

@Cattle Prod anotehr cracker of a hcart from Dr Clare Craig for you.That £400bn could have been spent much more productively or maybe not even spent at all.

https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-not-so-exceptional-year-of-covid/

There is no mention of whole-year mortality which allows us to see total mortality in perspective and takes into account the low figures from July to September.

Basically the government is deliberately concealing that the so-called ‘pandemic’ is of no significant magnitude. In the ‘best years’ from 2010 to 2019, the chance of an over-65 surviving the year was 95.7 per cent. In 2020 it dropped almost imperceptibly to 95.5 per cent. For reference, in 2006-2009 it was 95.2 per cent. Did we panic from 2006-9? I don’t think so. 

So no government released excess death rate figures? What a surprise! I was looking forward to those figures as my go-to statistics. SP, what are your thoughts on the latest Corona mutation? Is it really having any real impact on virus spread or is it just a convenient 'narrative device' to help keep scaring the masses?                                                                                                                                                                                                    Be very much interested also if you have a theory on why Asia has done so much better than the West. It is an aspect of this 'pandemic' that really troubles me, when for example comparing the UK to Japan and the alarming difference in death rates between the two countries. Ie I'm thinking the Japan low death stats can be believed, achieved whilst not shutting their own economy down - so is the crucial differentiator the difference in population health/diet between the two nations or is something else going on?

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55525982

Now its all good for us on this thread as gambling companies were one of the areas i was buying heavily in March,but outside of cold hard cash this is another example of our idiot politicians.The UK was world leader on online gambling,we were and could of built up hugely profitable companies.Instead government chose to attack them etc over and over.Looks like they will all end up US owned soon.Unless they can quickly do some more merging themselves.Flutter might escape and of course Bet365 being private,but it shows why our markets lag,we keep selling our best companies before they reach their full potential.

 

[Castlevania]

25 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55525982

Now its all good for us on this thread as gambling companies were one of the areas i was buying heavily in March,but outside of cold hard cash this is another example of our idiot politicians.The UK was world leader on online gambling,we were and could of built up hugely profitable companies.Instead government chose to attack them etc over and over.Looks like they will all end up US owned soon.Unless they can quickly do some more merging themselves.Flutter might escape and of course Bet365 being private,but it shows why our markets lag,we keep selling our best companies before they reach their full potential.

 

From a short term perspective it’s good - I made a very nice amount of money from William Hill. GVC I largely bought back in the Summer of 2019 when they were out of favour (at around £6 a share). However, given the potential of the US market, and the increasing barriers to entry in the more mature markets from a medium to longer term perspective they’re being sold off cheaply. I do wonder if the likes of GVC being headquartered in tax havens (GVC is an Isle of Man based company) means that U.K. politicians don’t care.

[Castlevania]

GVC up 25% at the open

[Harley]

OMG, that's the best of 2020 in their eyes!

https://moneyweek.com/economy/people/602542/the-faces-of-2020?utm_campaign=money-morning-newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter

Ursula Von der Leyen: the EU’s model of elegance steadies the ship

Eric Yuan: the nice guy who zoombombed the world

Ugur Sahin and Ozlem Tureci: the modest scientists who struck gold 

: dishy Rishi charms the nation

 

[The Idiocrat]

28 minutes ago, Harley said:

OMG, that's the best of 2020 in their eyes!

https://moneyweek.com/economy/people/602542/the-faces-of-2020?utm_campaign=money-morning-newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter

Ursula Von der Leyen: the EU’s model of elegance steadies the ship

Eric Yuan: the nice guy who zoombombed the world

Ugur Sahin and Ozlem Tureci: the modest scientists who struck gold 

: dishy Rishi charms the nation

 

 That reminds me, I meant to post MoneyWeek's tips for 2021 from their last issue. It's a long article but this is their "experts'" buy list. What stood out for me is how much they were into UK banks in the article. Would be interesting to see what those stocks look like at the end of the year. We should do a DOSBODS index!