Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[jamtomorrow]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

100% bubble.Guy just started at work with an agency,collecting cardboard,that sort of thing.Said he was glad he got paid early as was needing to take out a short term loan for crimbo.He said he was getting a loan and going to buy bitcoin though,make a fortune.

Looks to me like a straight repeat of every previous BTC manic episode, *including* anecdotes of latecomers selling everything / remortgaging / putting the missus on the game to get in on the act. 

That's just how BTC always moves when it moves (and of course, the downward moves are *brutal* when, inevitably, they come).

I quite like the brutality, it weeds out the crypto-tourists.

[UnconventionalWisdom]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

I think whats interesting about the bubbles we are seeing at the end of this cycle is that they seem to revolve around younger people mostly.I think the fact they have yet to see capital wipe outs etc,and how most returns in investing actually come from the dividends/income is driving it

Also have no faith in the system. Pay loads for an education but can only get you a job where you need to share a place (often with strangers). No possibility of owning so may as well take a punt on something that youtube said would be great. It'll be a tough lesson if anyone goes all-in. I think bitcoin has a future but too many people see it as a get rich quick scheme (main prerequisite a bubble!)

[leonardratso]

i remember that arsehole on TOS who was mining some coin in his shed on a pc, according to him in the future he would be elevated to king like status because of the amount of BTC he would have and everyone elses kids would be his serfs*.

This was before the last crash.

*Obviously until someone stuck a knife in his neck.

[JMD]

On 26/12/2020 at 15:48, sancho panza said:

If that isn't a buy signal I don't know what is.Do you remember that chart of commodity usage (featuring each commodity as a %age of world demand over last 50 years or so?)?.Coal had a dip psot 08 but then was back at previous levels by 2020....

If I could get any coal exposure via single company equities,I'd have a go here so any ideas welcomed.

Indeed,force people to have pensions,force pension companies to follow solvency ratios that heavily favour buying cruddy Gilts even though they're an awful long term investment and then sit back and watch the transfer of wealth begin.

Shocking really, but....exceptionally well covered throughout this thread ..so we're all aware.

Re coal miners, Thorn has already suggested some good coal miners, and I own some of those, I'd add warrior met coal and inner mongolia coal, there is an Australian one which I also liked - I'll post later when I can remember it's name! Don't know if you are buying long term but I bought ones doing metallurgical as that type will be needed for steel making whatever the future green policies are implemented to inhibit mining coal.

[Errol]

[JMD]

6 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Tell him about these, he doesn't know he will love it! Just ask for a share of any profits as thanks, for some free exposure!

https://bitcointreasuries.org/index.html

 

I monitor that site, it is a useful one I think. I also hold some microstrategy and square, but similar companies have not followed them which I find disappointing and kinda frustrates the theory that institutional money was going to begin to pile in this year. May still happen of course.

[DurhamBorn]

11 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

So the lawyers have got hold of the PCR test issue, and are putting class action lawsuits for loss of earnings etc. Should be an easy win, all you need to do is establish the false positive rate and that the govt wilfully ignored it, which they obviously have. WHO and other PCR test advocates are distancing themselves from it in recent weeks.

Occured to me that this is potentially another mechanism the govt could use to hand out money and keep the liquidity going, like PPI claims on steroids. Most legal stuff is protracted though, and it's likely inflation will be running before the payouts begin. If this comes to pass, could really juice the cycle.

Exactly.If your Card Factory,or a shareholder,why wouldnt you want a payout?.Government force you to close on dodgy data while allowing Tesco to continue selling cards.Government simply deciding we are going to destroy your capital and you can do nothing.I think it will prove massive.Millions of hard working people stuffed,while millions of not hard working still getting money off the government in welfare and state/council wages.

[JMD]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

100% bubble.Guy just started at work with an agency,collecting cardboard,that sort of thing.Said he was glad he got paid early as was needing to take out a short term loan for crimbo.He said he was getting a loan and going to buy bitcoin though,make a fortune.

Bubbles are incredible things for people who get in early,and catching one can change peoples lives for ordinary people.However its crucial people see them for what they are and diversify the profits out into undervalued boring areas.

I think whats interesting about the bubbles we are seeing at the end of this cycle is that they seem to revolve around younger people mostly.I think the fact they have yet to see capital wipe outs etc,and how most returns in investing actually come from the dividends/income is driving it.

 

 

DB, but BTC is not only for younger people... Max Kaiser is fond of saying BTC is a bet on the future of humanity, whereas gold is a bet on the past and against humanity. Then again that statement is very woke, which I suppose kinda reinforces your original point!!!                                                                                                 Your reminder to take profits is a excellent one. I did do that and sold some PM's and bought BTC/BTC leveraged companies (as per bitcoin treasury site Democorruptcy mentions above), if BTC goes to 100k as some models do predict it should after its recent halving, then I will sell 33% and hold the remainder. The reason why I sold some PM's to buy BTC is because I view BTC similar to gold, could be wrong, but BTC represents only a small proportion of my total PM's, so I view it as a small downside risk but huge potential upside.

[Democorruptcy]

32 minutes ago, JMD said:

I monitor that site, it is a useful one I think. I also hold some microstrategy and square, but similar companies have not followed them which I find disappointing and kinda frustrates the theory that institutional money was going to begin to pile in this year. May still happen of course.

Well done on the Microstrategy. The Bitcoin holding column must be a clue to how well similar companies have done, with regard to Bitcoin only profits.

[JMD]

28 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly.If your Card Factory,or a shareholder,why wouldnt you want a payout?.Government force you to close on dodgy data while allowing Tesco to continue selling cards.Government simply deciding we are going to destroy your capital and you can do nothing.I think it will prove massive.Millions of hard working people stuffed,while millions of not hard working still getting money off the government in welfare and state/council wages.

But will the truth ever be outed? The MSM only show us pub landlords and sme's that enjoy wearing their covid hair-shirts. Shocking stuff going on all around... I'm continually reminded of that Adam Curtis's documentary Hypernormalisation.

[ThoughtCriminal]

9 hours ago, Barnsey said:

If this ain't a tulip mania melt up... 

 

Tesla and bitcoin, both begging to be shorted. 

 

If only I had the balls 😂

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Occured to me that this is potentially another mechanism the govt could use to hand out money and keep the liquidity going, like PPI claims on steroids. 

My accountant told me that he believed the PPI thing was just to get money into the hands of people that would spend it and that was years ago, maybe 2012 or so

[JMD]

7 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Well done on the Microstrategy. The Bitcoin holding column must be a clue to how well similar companies have done, with regard to Bitcoin only profits.

I did my BTC research several months back, and posted around that time the bitcoin treasury site you posted, only mention in case people think I don't share!! The interesting thing about microstrategy is that they state they will never sell their BTC. So might they leverage it in order to borrow and to buy competitors in future? It's speculative but my portfolio is mostly 'boring' total return plays, so am always on lookout for some risky holds to run alongside.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

DB, but BTC is not only for younger people... Max Kaiser is fond of saying BTC is a bet on the future of humanity, whereas gold is a bet on the past and against humanity. Then again that statement is very woke, which I suppose kinda reinforces your original point!!!                                                                                                 Your reminder to take profits is a excellent one. I did do that and sold some PM's and bought BTC/BTC leveraged companies (as per bitcoin treasury site Democorruptcy mentions above), if BTC goes to 100k as some models do predict it should after its recent halving, then I will sell 33% and hold the remainder. The reason why I sold some PM's to buy BTC is because I view BTC similar to gold, could be wrong, but BTC represents only a small proportion of my total PM's, so I view it as a small downside risk but huge potential upside.

I only count BTC as a tiny part of the bubble,the main parts being the tech stocks,especially Tesla etc.Thats where i expect most pain to be.They will also drag down the indexes everyone has in their 60/40 portfolios,so they will get an equity whack,then an inflation driven bond whack.I think the bond damage will be slower,but just as lethal.

[Errol]

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

40 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I went in on a spreadbet at 9500 and out at 18500 or so, expecting one if its regular 30% pullbacks, so I made 9k and missed out on the following 10k. I'm not unhappy, a 30% pullback from here would still bring it back under 20k, the beauty of % down being so much larger than percentages up. 

The 9k went into gold and silver, where the risk:reward is much better now imo. Risk:reward for btc was fantastic at 9500, not so much now. Parabolic rises are unsustainable in all aspects of nature and human behaviour is no exception. Not for me at the moment.

Very nice, 9k not to be sniffed at by anyone. 

 

Yeah, it's got that danger light flashing now. My Twitter feed is just full of people talking about bitcoin all of a sudden. 

 

Can't be long now........... 

[Noallegiance]

For me BTC is the poster-child for the same mistakes being made again by the 'sure-thing', 'you can't lose', 'what's the word on the street, Johnny?' etc etc unsuspecting public who think they've realised something the smart folk haven't that, in their own minds, has them soon-to-be bathing in asses milk and driving a Lambo through Maccy Ds.

It's so blindingly obvious that it's another fad that's going to cause a fair few marriage break-ups and suicides.

IMO a flutter is sensible if one is so inclined. Thinking it's going to oust the establishment, piling savings and/or debt in and/or claiming it's a win for the populace is, at best, drunk talk. Like, 12 pints drunk talk. Minimum.

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Tesla and bitcoin, both begging to be shorted. 

 

If only I had the balls 😂

I remember shorting them at the same time as legends like Jim Chanos in 2019.Got a few runs in before I gave it back to Mr Market.Lucky I knew when to give up around Dec 19..........

I'm sizing up some QQQ/XLK puts which are a tech short but currently much cheaper than TSLA puts which cost a lot and reduce the leverage you get to the point where you question whether it's worth the risk.

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

So the lawyers have got hold of the PCR test issue, and are putting class action lawsuits for loss of earnings etc. Should be an easy win, all you need to do is establish the false positive rate and that the govt wilfully ignored it, which they obviously have. WHO and other PCR test advocates are distancing themselves from it in recent weeks.

Occured to me that this is potentially another mechanism the govt could use to hand out money and keep the liquidity going, like PPI claims on steroids. Most legal stuff is protracted though, and it's likely inflation will be running before the payouts begin. If this comes to pass, could really juice the cycle.

Glad to hear it.I'm not surprised to be honest.The more that perfectly sane people like Clare Craig,John Lee and Mike Yeadon explain the data with super simple graphs,the more the public are beginning to question the lockdowns.

It's  virtuous circle really,the more people question the lockdowns the more they read these people and the the more they read them etc etc.

I've seen it at work,espceially amongst the youngsters,some of whom openly question how pointless the lockdowns are.Warms my heart every time.

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

My accountant told me that he believed the PPI thing was just to get money into the hands of people that would spend it and that was years ago, maybe 2012 or so

I remember someone either on thsi thread or the one on ToS showing a chart that shwoed correlation between PPI payouts and the rise of PCP fuelled car sales.I remember it being very compelling as the average payout was similar to the average downpayment.I could be misremembering this.

On 23/12/2020 at 18:13, Errol said:

Been thinking on this post Errol and how it utterly reflects my epxerience.My biggest mistaek when I was younger,was that I struggled sitting in things.

'The market does not beat them,they beat themselves.'

So true.I need to read that book.

[sancho panza]

Sorry for the cross thread but some Basement dwellers-like me-rarely leave this thread.Good discussion in a property thread@JoeDavola pushed the thesis that this is an equity swapping market.I did some reseacrh and looking at one of two psotcodes.it's hard not to disagree.

LE3 has seen a 40% drop in transactions from Aug 19 to Aug 20,huge.Even huger is the fact that the transactions are mainly occuring at the upper end of the market.Hence we get an absurd spike in average prices accompanying collapsing volume.

Looks like the EA's will be suing the govt after the publicans have had their go.

Interesting times are coming.

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalPropertiesSoldAndAveragePrice.html?searchLocation=le3&sellersPriceGuide=Start+Search

 

[Noallegiance]

27 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Sorry for the cross thread but some Basement dwellers-like me-rarely leave this thread.Good discussion in a property thread@JoeDavola pushed the thesis that this is an equity swapping market.I did some reseacrh and looking at one of two psotcodes.it's hard not to disagree.

LE3 has seen a 40% drop in transactions from Aug 19 to Aug 20,huge.Even huger is the fact that the transactions are mainly occuring at the upper end of the market.Hence we get an absurd spike in average prices accompanying collapsing volume.

Looks like the EA's will be suing the govt after the publicans have had their go.

Interesting times are coming.

 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalPropertiesSoldAndAveragePrice.html?searchLocation=le3&sellersPriceGuide=Start+Search

 

Same trick works for postcodes round me. Green line go up, orange bar go down.

The trend is likewise over the seven year timeline, too.

The question is how it breaks.

[Loki]

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

So the lawyers have got hold of the PCR test issue, and are putting class action lawsuits for loss of earnings etc. Should be an easy win, all you need to do is establish the false positive rate and that the govt wilfully ignored it, which they obviously have. WHO and other PCR test advocates are distancing themselves from it in recent weeks.

Occured to me that this is potentially another mechanism the govt could use to hand out money and keep the liquidity going, like PPI claims on steroids. Most legal stuff is protracted though, and it's likely inflation will be running before the payouts begin. If this comes to pass, could really juice the cycle.

If it gets reported and puts an end to this mania (And if it's on the TV, it must be true) they are welcome to their pieces of eight!

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Great reference. That's it exactly, just like Soviet Russia, everyone pretending it's normal.

The MSM won't tell the truth, but I still have some faith in this country's legal system and especially the greed of lawyers to do it.

CP, hope I don't appear overly cynical here and definitely not trying to nitpick you but you say you have faith In the legal system. But haven't lawyers been almost entirely silent and absent during the lockdowns, apart from the ones who still find time to be very vocal about the Brexit subject that is. I think most people would be shocked to hear a lawyers own explanation of their concept of justice, where it's less about good and bad, with behaviour being more about being a social disease these days. It's almost as if they prefer to operate in a moral vacuum, and where winning the legal argument is really what it's all about and where they derive most satisfaction. For me I'm afraid it is just another example of institutional failure, and probably stems from how the subject is taught in the first place, meaning there are no quick easy solutions. So If I were being uber critical I would call lawyers a modern day priesthood. I think they could take a leaf from the medical profession and set themselves a similarly 'low bar'(?), ie '...first do no harm'.

[wherebee]

4 hours ago, JMD said:

CP, hope I don't appear overly cynical here and definitely not trying to nitpick you but you say you have faith In the legal system. But haven't lawyers been almost entirely silent and absent during the lockdowns, apart from the ones who still find time to be very vocal about the Brexit subject that is. I think most people would be shocked to hear a lawyers own explanation of their concept of justice, where it's less about good and bad, with behaviour being more about being a social disease these days. It's almost as if they prefer to operate in a moral vacuum, and where winning the legal argument is really what it's all about and where they derive most satisfaction. For me I'm afraid it is just another example of institutional failure, and probably stems from how the subject is taught in the first place, meaning there are no quick easy solutions. So If I were being uber critical I would call lawyers a modern day priesthood. I think they could take a leaf from the medical profession and set themselves a similarly 'low bar'(?), ie '...first do no harm'.

The larger law firms, certainly, are cautious and wouldn't take a case where their Partners might come under criticism from ministers down at the club, etc.

But lawyers are sharks of all sizes.  There will be middle size firms and independent who will sue anything that moves if they can make their 30%.

A jury awarded $178,000 in damages to a woman who sued her former fiance for breaking their seven-week engagement.

The breakdown: $93,000 for pain and suffering; $60,000 for loss of income from her legal practice, and $25,000 for psychiatric counseling expenses

http://www.duhaime.org/LawFun/LawArticle-41/Outrageous-Lawsuits.aspx

[Don Coglione]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I remember someone either on thsi thread or the one on ToS showing a chart that shwoed correlation between PPI payouts and the rise of PCP fuelled car sales.I remember it being very compelling as the average payout was similar to the average downpayment.I could be misremembering this.

I posted a job ad by a large car dealership, looking to recruit someone to assist customers in applying for PPI compo.