Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[geordie_lurch]

Today looks to my untrained eye like one of the best gains for a while in terms of a lot of the stocks we have all discussed - K & S AG is currently up  8.14% today Is it the start of the melt up of just others finally seeing value in the stocks those in this thread have been discussing for months?

From the Telegraph just now...

Quote

The FTSE 100 is continuing to soar, up about 3.5pc currently.

There’s a combination of factors driving the blue-chip index upwards, including US stimulus hopes as the Democrats turn Georgia blue to take control of the Senate, oil majors being boosted by Opec’s output cut, and and materials firms being lifted by stronger commodity prices.

 

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Note a tad of jealousy in there towards my 0.01% (£106) worth of real estate. Do you think it's a full brick or just half?

not at all fella, keep it up! methinks you meant to say 'renter scum' but ironically you said 'rentier scum'........I empathize with the 'renter scum' but during the next revolution all the 'rentier scum' will have their heads chopped off at the guillotine 

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Hardhat said:

When did you open those positions in Siemens out of interest?

At around the bottom of the crash in March.

I bought about £1300 of plain old Siemens then they split the shares so i got the Siemens energy but i only have about £325 of the latter .. never knew theyd shot up so much until now.

 

[Hancock]

3 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

not at all fella, keep it up! methinks you meant to say 'renter scum' but ironically you said 'rentier scum'.

Force of habit.

[nirvana]

4 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Is the melt up???

yes, it was foretold in the stars last year.....Powell and Papa Buffet saw it coming......amongst others

 

 

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

China will be forced to devalue the Yuan Discuss

How they gonna buy coal and tings if they keep devaluing?

[janch]

Money rotating out of bonds and some of it is finding its way into our reflation/value stocks:

[nirvana]

There's this trader who calls people cunts all the time...well more their behaviour....

Today I am confessing to being a cunt. Why? Cos I held onto a dog called Great Panther Mining.....maybe I liked the sound of the name......OCD you're a cunt!

I haven't lost much money on it BUT I could have had that money in something more profitable......and maybe it's a reminder not to invest in 'penny share shite' 

OK confession over, onwards and upwards 

[The Idiocrat]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

There's not much value left,we're loaded up with oilies too.

Worth looking at Vodafone though,

Decl:already long,likely going to pick up some more today.

Thanks for that. Yes, I'm a bit underweight in telecoms and might add some more VOD and/or TEF. Added some more Exxon today- got plenty of BP/RDSB/REP but thought a pure old school oil play with no diversion of renewables might be an idea - slight concern BP/Shell will throw the baby out with the bathoil in their moves to go green. I still like the idea of investing in uranium miners and am looking into those but not sure there's short/medium term value without more nuclear plants being actually in construction rather than planned, and the realisation from governments around the world that renewables won't provide enough and nuclear is in many ways cleaner if you take into account how much shit has to be created from mining rare earth metals, etc.

[nirvana]

10 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

How they gonna buy coal and tings if they keep devaluing?

Actually I don't give a shit anymore.......I'm trying to flush out my demons again I suppose

I used to get triggered by these economists who think they can predict the future but I'm trying to be more like the young uns nowadays, shrug my shoulders, say meh and let the trading do the talking....some of us are trying to be too smart for our own good sometimes 

PS gold dumping, I smelt it again 

 

[janch]

3 minutes ago, The Idiocrat said:

I'm a bit underweight in telecoms and might add some more VOD

Well they're all putting up their prices by around 3% which is no surprise to any of us on here.  Is this the start of some serious inflation?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-55529291

[nirvana]

oh dear......another valuable lesson 'hate the fed but don't fight the fed....or the ticker'

yes I know it's had a good run but highlights how fickle 'Mr Market' can be and things can turn very quickly.....

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Cant really add much to this thread, but as it was the sole reason to start putting money away in my pension this is what ive got and what % the share are up or down.

I no SIPP until about June 2017 think ive put circa £75K in and its now worth £105K. 

Been waiting on about £20k in invoices that will be dumped in there, should have had it prior to Xmas and the plan was to put it all in gold and silver.

Now im not sure to wait for a BK, and will hopefully have £50k to spend on it, as i can see things go onwards and upwards from here and their being no market crash ... as once people are out they'll be spending like drunken sailors.

Looks like quite a good selection to hold for the next 10 years .... but tempted to flog ITV as their product is crap, but presumably with people soon to be spending like no tomorrow advertising charges will go up.

Lovely portfolio there a real model reflation one ,really glad the thread helped you get sorted,the Scottish play is on the move now as well  ,we wont live long enough for a profit in it ,but iv grown fond of the damn thing.

[leonardratso]

cna is the counter to balance the exuberant bullishness,  it comes up bit then tanks hard to keep you watching and waiting... forever......

[DurhamBorn]

Have to laugh at the MSM, they have zero idea do they.None of that is driving the market what they think it is,zero,zip,nothing.Unlike those bozos i hope the one lesson people learn from this thread is markets are never linear.Whats driving markets is the liquidity in the pipes,once thats in something will force it out with a lag.

Its like those "economists" worrying the BOE is monetizing government deficits.OF COURSE IT IS,and if they werent we would be heading back to the stone age,thats how western economies work,for better or for worse.They needed a route into the economy because the banks were off the table.

 

[Hancock]

30 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Lovely portfolio there a real model reflation one ,really glad the thread helped you get sorted,the Scottish play is on the move now as well  ,we wont live long enough for a profit in it ,but iv grown fond of the damn thing.

Yes have to take my hat off to you and thankyou you for giving me the bollocks/ intelligence to start investing money in shares again, thanks to your reasoning and simplifying of things.

Last time i owned shares before this SIPP was prior to the 2007 crash .... i sold the lot just months before the crash and have been like a rabbit in the headlights ever since, waiting for pwopertee prices to crash.

Should add it was April 2018 that i opened this SIPP with a few grand and as of tonight, the SIPP/ISA and Junior ISA are worth £120k ... not bad for someone who works about 500 hours a year!

Hope it all crashes again soon as within a few months should have added another 40-50k in cash. But is it upwards from here?

 

[leonardratso]

3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Yes have to take my hat off to you and thankyou you for giving me the bollocks/ intelligence to start investing money in shares again, thanks to your reasoning and simplifying of things.

Last time i owned shares before this SIPP was prior to the 2007 crash .... i sold the lot just months before the crash and have been like a rabbit in the headlights ever since, waiting for pwopertee prices to crash.

Should add it was April 2018 that i opened this SIPP with a few grand and as of tonight, the SIPP/ISA and Junior ISA are worth £120k ... not bad for someone who works about 500 hours a year!

Hope it all crashes again soon as within a few months should have added another 40-50k in cash. But is it upwards from here?

 

some kind of workaholic.

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, leonardratso said:

some kind of workaholic.

Always been work shy mate, in general i hate almost everything about it.

Work wise is my motto!

[leonardratso]

durr, left myself a note to buy NYSE:CAT - i just found it in my pocket from last year sometime, i also wrote $150 on it, just went to check, pah $196 now, should empty my pockets more often....

[Loki]

18 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Have to laugh at the MSM, they have zero idea do they.None of that is driving the market what they think it is,zero,zip,nothing.Unlike those bozos i hope the one lesson people learn from this thread is markets are never linear.Whats driving markets is the liquidity in the pipes,once thats in something will force it out with a lag.

Its like those "economists" worrying the BOE is monetizing government deficits.OF COURSE IT IS,and if they werent we would be heading back to the stone age,thats how western economies work,for better or for worse.They needed a route into the economy because the banks were off the table.

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/why-2020s-wont-be-roaring-20s

 

Link presented without comment.

 

Well apart from 

 

So on the plus side, at least it's one hack who isn't stealing your line, on the downside, he's literally comparing now to the 1920s.  Even just from reading Contrarian Investment Strategies (Not quite finished yet) I know that comparing the 1920's recession to other recessions is foolish. 

[AWW]

5 hours ago, Errol said:

Nobody sane 'rotates' out of gold.

Exactly. I've sold loads of physical silver when it's made good gains. I've never sold any gold.

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, leonardratso said:

<insert ticker> is the counter to balance the exuberant bullishness,  it comes up bit then tanks hard to keep you watching and waiting... forever......

I noticed the -67.2% in the table and it made me proud to be part of the record holder.

[Nomad]

Interesting article,https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/06/ftse-100-stock-market-bubble-risk 

[leonardratso]

15 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I noticed the -67.2% in the table and it made me proud to be part of the record holder.

i just kept buying a little bit every now and then, got it down from -70 odd % to -23% now, im hoping to meet it in the middle somewhere, might even get the fees paid if it overshoots.

Having said that i started a new low ball tranch of <gods own share> on t212 and thats 18% up, it wont cover the losses on the -23% one, but every little helps.

[geordie_lurch]

A good article on the Guardian (for a change) and loved this bit about Tesla

Grantham cited shares in the electric car maker as an example of the market bubble. “As a model 3 owner, my personal favourite Tesla tidbit is that its market capitalisation, now over $600bn, amounts to over $1.25m per car sold each year versus $9,000 per car for General Motors. What has 1929 got to equal that?”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/06/ftse-100-stock-market-bubble-risk