Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Barnsey]

Interpret as you wish 

 

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, Loki said:

True. A market/strategy guy then. I want to understand the movements

The first rule,dont look at a day,look at a few weeks minimum,remember markets are never linear,they go where they are going in their own time.

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The first rule,dont look at a day,look at a few weeks minimum,remember markets are never linear,they go where they are going in their own time.

One of the top things I've learned on this thread, and helped me through the red days   

I was just curious if such a sudden divergence could be taken as a sign of anything.  

I guess not!

[Harley]

23 hours ago, Hancock said:

Yes have to take my hat off to you and thankyou you for giving me the bollocks/ intelligence to start investing money in shares again, thanks to your reasoning and simplifying of things.

Last time i owned shares before this SIPP was prior to the 2007 crash .... i sold the lot just months before the crash and have been like a rabbit in the headlights ever since, waiting for pwopertee prices to crash.

Should add it was April 2018 that i opened this SIPP with a few grand and as of tonight, the SIPP/ISA and Junior ISA are worth £120k ... not bad for someone who works about 500 hours a year!

Hope it all crashes again soon as within a few months should have added another 40-50k in cash. But is it upwards from here?

I'm impressed with what you've managed to do.

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

it even includes the infamous '10,000btc pizza purchase of 2010'!!

I bet the pizza was crap as well, not as good as the pizza made by posters on here.

[geordie_lurch]

The madness continues as Elon Musk becomes the richest person in the world as his 'wealth' tops $185bn via BBC

"Mr Musk's electric car company Tesla has surged in value this year, and hit a market value of $700bn (£516bn) for the first time on Wednesday.

That makes the car company worth more than Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai, GM and Ford combined."
 

[Hancock]

Just now, Harley said:

I'm impressed with what you've managed to do.

Me too considering i also raise a kid alone (parents assist when i'm away), and i've had barely any work in first 6 months of lockdown.

Plan from now is to put 10-15k a year into the SIPP for another 10 years. Will be 55 then and will save 50k to live on until 60 and then just live off dividends ..... Best laid plans and all that though.

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 minute ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I bet the pizza was crap as well, not as good as the pizza made by posters on here.

Haha, I'm making a pizza right now!

[Harley]

3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Best laid plans and all that though

But you've sussed the process for this and that.  All the rest is noise!

[Hancock]

Just now, Bobthebuilder said:

I bet the pizza was crap as well, not as good as the pizza made by posters on here.

My have gone down hill a bit, Tesco have stopped selling Pizza Express Passata, with only Ocada doing so ... and they don't deliver to my address.

Tesco sell Mutti brand which is alright but theyre a bit to keen on adding herbs in there.

Might get a couple of dozen tins sent to a friends house to collect them.
https://www.ocado.com/products/pizza-express-passata-78804011

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

My have gone down hill a bit, Tesco have stopped selling Pizza Express Passata, with only Ocada doing so ... and they don't deliver to my address.

Tesco sell Mutti brand which is alright but theyre a bit to keen on adding herbs in there.

Might get a couple of dozen tins sent to a friends house to collect them.
https://www.ocado.com/products/pizza-express-passata-78804011

Make your own tomato sauce, it will save you a few bob that you can add to that SIPP.

[Barnsey]

I don't care what anyone's stance is on the virus frankly, but this B117 strain is now being detected across much of the US in folks with no travel history.

As the melt up gathers exponential pace, especially with stimulus being upped to $2000 and forbearance likely to be extended, be careful. Yes markets are forward looking but the States isn't remotely ready for what we're going through here, 6-8 weeks from now is the estimate from Danish CDC equivalent.

We might not make it to the policy mistake stage at this rate.

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

But you've sussed the process for this and that.  All the rest is noise!

Yes, read everything on here, knowledge given must be worth several years sat on the beach earlier than planned for most.

Though after a conversation yesterday its possible i maybe spending 9 months a year on the beach come this September, hope so as England is killing me.

 

[Harley]

Been pruning things financial today.  Taking advantage of some reasonable gains to top slice a few back to my per-stock allocation.  Maybe even able to dump some of the legacy rubbish (like ITV as mentioned up thread) soon if things stay bullish in the FTSE (an under-performing index catching up post Brexit?).

I've never done much pruning before but it's always been the right thing to do with hindsight.  The reason I can do it now is I have my watchlist, etc of other opportunities so a bit of pull combined with the push.  I might just use an FTSE ETF now to ride any upside to a BK as it's a quick cheap monitor and sell.

My current issue is that my (international) opportunities are outside what the typical ISA provides so I'm tempted to open a Saxo ISA.  They seem to have changed their pricing.  The fee is now £120 pa minimum, or 0.12% pa, so the cutoff point is a £100k portfolio.  Their exchange commission (important in an internationally focused ISA) seems to have also changed to 1.0% from 1.5%?  The stock commissions are generally OK compared to other ISAs.  Not sure if Brexit and passporting concerns will change things.   

Any views on Saxo Bank in general and for an ISA in particular?

[Hancock]

3 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Make your own tomato sauce, it will save you a few bob that you can add to that SIPP.

Pizza Express sauce is 10/10, tried doing my own but cant get near it, they've got the magic recipe.

Been leaving my dough out for a 3 days or more, yeast stinks of alcohol but it makes them even crispier.

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Make your own tomato sauce, it will save you a few bob that you can add to that SIPP.

On the subject of tomato sauce, I was shocked yesterday by how much sauce remains in the plastic bottle (destined for the bin), unless like me you cut it open and scoop it out!  A new frugal high!

[Bobthebuilder]

5 minutes ago, Harley said:

Been pruning things financial today.  Taking advantage of some reasonable gains to top slice a few back to my per-stock allocation.  Maybe even able to dump some of the legacy rubbish (like ITV as mentioned up thread) soon if things stay bullish in the FTSE (an under-performing index catching up post Brexit?).

I've never done much pruning before but it's always been the right thing to do with hindsight.  The reason I can do it now is I have my watchlist, etc of other opportunities so a bit of pull combined with the push.  I might just use an FTSE ETF now to ride any upside to a BK as it's a quick cheap monitor and sell.

My current issue is that my (international) opportunities are outside what the typical ISA provides so I'm tempted to open a Saxo ISA.  They seem to have changed their pricing.  The fee is now £120 pa minimum, or 0.12% pa, so the cutoff point is a £100k portfolio.  Their exchange commission (important in an internationally focused ISA) seems to have also changed to 1.0% from 1.5%?  The stock commissions are generally OK compared to other ISAs.  Not sure if Brexit and passporting concerns will change things.   

Any views on Saxo Bank in general and for an ISA in particular?

Hi Harley, (plumber padwan).

Interesting you say you are pruning. I have been doing the same recently with standard ftse type stocks that I have had for years, that are in profit and i no longer fancy holding going forward. Getting the cash into a ISA from a normal account is a part of it as well.

Was looking for a good temporary home for it, I like the idea of a single fund for quick selling. Interesting.

[Bricormortis]

Elderly up North refusing the Pfizer jab " they'd rather wait for the English one ! "

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Good post of yours.  Went for a long jomp across the hills with the dog yesterday.  A surge of that old belligerent energy, that wry smile, and a reminder you play your own game, no others.  Whatever, no fecks given.  Eff all the doubling down sub-standard technocrats with their Canute like failures and pathetic hubris.  Yes, the decay of institutions.  This virus will run until it too burns itself.  They should have learnt to leave well alone.  Battles are won at the margins and that's the place to be.  Now is the time to hunker down, to progress with stealth and daring.  To be grey but resolute and walk your own path as all around you loses its.

And the clip that sums it all up.  An absolutely perfect summation.  It still chills me to watch.  Girls, money, freedom, or whatever!  This is sooo not over!

 

[Bobthebuilder]

16 minutes ago, Harley said:

On the subject of tomato sauce, I was shocked yesterday by how much sauce remains in the plastic bottle (destined for the bin), unless like me you cut it open and scoop it out!  A new frugal high!

A small drop of water in the bottle, lid back on and shake.

[Bricormortis]

Back on topic I have been wondering if the Bitcoin bubble bursting could precipitate a run on Tesla / Fangs, precipitating BK.  Anythings possible I guess.

[Harley]

3 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

A small drop of water in the bottle, lid back on and shake.

I think Aldi already do that! 

[Talking Monkey]

3 hours ago, Errol said:

I've been thinking this as well. My gut tells me something is not right. It's almost like people are being herded into Bitcoin/Crypto (and away from gold or anything else). CNBC and other media outlets are full of bitcoin this and bitcoin that.

Also there is the incessant nonsense about Bitcoin versus gold, when hardly any gold 'bugs' would even mention it (they don't care). But you can barely look at a gold post on Twitter without someone replying with 'bitcoin is better' etc.

It's also becoming increasingly strange that every article or media slot about bitcoin features a picture of bitcoin depicted as a gold coin (!).

I'll be the first to admit I don't understand this crypto stuff but it seems an epic bubble, it's going to smash a lot of people if it goes pop as I understand a lot of the retail punters are heavily concentrated in it

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

I'll be the first to admit I don't understand this crypto stuff but it seems an epic bubble, it's going to smash a lot of people if it goes pop as I understand a lot of the retail punters are heavily concentrated in it

IF. 

[Talking Monkey]

36 minutes ago, Harley said:

Been pruning things financial today.  Taking advantage of some reasonable gains to top slice a few back to my per-stock allocation.  Maybe even able to dump some of the legacy rubbish (like ITV as mentioned up thread) soon if things stay bullish in the FTSE (an under-performing index catching up post Brexit?).

I've never done much pruning before but it's always been the right thing to do with hindsight.  The reason I can do it now is I have my watchlist, etc of other opportunities so a bit of pull combined with the push.  I might just use an FTSE ETF now to ride any upside to a BK as it's a quick cheap monitor and sell.

My current issue is that my (international) opportunities are outside what the typical ISA provides so I'm tempted to open a Saxo ISA.  They seem to have changed their pricing.  The fee is now £120 pa minimum, or 0.12% pa, so the cutoff point is a £100k portfolio.  Their exchange commission (important in an internationally focused ISA) seems to have also changed to 1.0% from 1.5%?  The stock commissions are generally OK compared to other ISAs.  Not sure if Brexit and passporting concerns will change things.   

Any views on Saxo Bank in general and for an ISA in particular?

I use them for options trading they seem OK, would HL not do for the international opportunities