Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Talking Monkey]

19 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Back on topic I have been wondering if the Bitcoin bubble bursting could precipitate a run on Tesla / Fangs, precipitating BK.  Anythings possible I guess.

It could do i reckon, that thought occurred to me yesterday they're both extreme bubbles

[Harley]

15 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

I use them for options trading they seem OK, would HL not do for the international opportunities

Ta.  That's a big fat no for HL and co - very limited international market access (ignoring FTSE CDIs but these are also very limited).  AJ Bell the same.  II is a bit better but pricey for international trading and still not sufficient market access coverage.  Saxo are more expensive on holding costs but the average commission is less.  Exchange fees are the same at 1%, important as you cannot hold forex in an ISA so cannot trade into Forex holdings.  I thought the forex commission used to be 1.5% so was pleased to check back today and see 1%.  But £10 a month minimum (and no credit like with II) is more than my mobile charge!  That said, no-one seems to do the Moscow exchange but at least Saxo seem to do the Nordics and (fuller) Asia.

[Barnsey]

 

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

I don't care what anyone's stance is on the virus frankly, but this B117 strain is now being detected across much of the US in folks with no travel history.

As the melt up gathers exponential pace, especially with stimulus being upped to $2000 and forbearance likely to be extended, be careful. Yes markets are forward looking but the States isn't remotely ready for what we're going through here, 6-8 weeks from now is the estimate from Danish CDC equivalent.

We might not make it to the policy mistake stage at this rate.

Aha! Gotcha! You may have made the classic modern-day faux-pas of thinking that actual, real, physical events have any inertia when it comes to nudging stock market needles!

Mass unemployment?

Companies going bust?

Worldwide disease?

War drums in the distance?

New fuckin highs, baby. New fuckin highs.

Based on the above, the only real world thing to topple the bubbles will be if world peace breaks out!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Hi Harley, (plumber padwan).

Interesting you say you are pruning. I have been doing the same recently with standard ftse type stocks that I have had for years, that are in profit and i no longer fancy holding going forward. Getting the cash into a ISA from a normal account is a part of it as well.

Was looking for a good temporary home for it, I like the idea of a single fund for quick selling. Interesting.

I've got a downer on ISAs as they often restrict me away from the better international exchanges so my ISA looks a bit lackluster.  That said maybe this is a time for the FTSE to play catchup so maybe I'm telegraphing an contrary signal!  

DYOR, but I use ISF (but they lend out stocks) and VUKE (they, the last time I looked, don't lend out stocks) for the FTSE.  I was a bit shocked at the low current yield as my income share portfolio does better but this is a gain trade not a div one.  I've also been buying US Treasuries to mop up any cash(!) although my value trade alerts have been quite busy lately: 4xHK, 1xUK, 1xAustralia, 2xUS, 1xFrance, 1xRussia, 1xSingapore and 1xCanada (or US) in January alone.  Several more but I passed on them due to financials and their sectors.  So mostly basic materials.  Maybe Beijing Biden will help the HK market recover despite Taiwan!

[Barnsey]

4 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Aha! Gotcha! You may have made the classic modern-day faux-pas of thinking that actual, real, physical events have any inertia when it comes to nudging stock market needles!

Mass unemployment?

Companies going bust?

Worldwide disease?

War drums in the distance?

New fuckin highs, baby. New fuckin highs.

Based on the above, the only real world thing to topple the bubbles will be if world peace breaks out!

I hear you!

Let's see what happens when this B117 spreads like wildfire and Biden tries to lock down 74 million Trump voters...

[harp]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Good post of yours.  Went for a long jomp across the hills with the dog yesterday.  A surge of that old belligerent energy, that wry smile, and a reminder you play your own game, no others.  Whatever, no fecks given.  Eff all the doubling down sub-standard technocrats with their Canute like failures and pathetic hubris.  Yes, the decay of institutions.  This virus will run until it too burns itself.  They should have learnt to leave well alone.  Battles are won at the margins and that's the place to be.  Now is the time to hunker down, to progress with stealth and daring.  To be grey but resolute and walk your own path as all around you loses its.

Whats a jomp? Or do you mean yomp? If so you were a Royal Marine? If it's jomp then you were a Royal Marine officer
And if you were Army, you know full well its called a tab!

[Harley]

2 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

I hear you!

Let's see what happens when this B117 spreads like wildfire and Biden tries to lock down 74 million Trump voters...

The US is the biggest market and my least favourite in fundamental and financial terms, and that was before the bananas.  Very high valuations, lots of intangibles keeping balance sheets solvent, high debt ratios, and low solvency (current) ratios.  IMP, far better out there if you can access it.

[Hancock]

2 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I'm of the same mind. I told my MP I'm removing myself from the tax net after the latest lockdown vote. Not paying them to imprison me.

This is why i've dumped so much into my SIPP as to avoid income tax and by default getting child tax credits. Got a decent batch of money arriving soon once invoices are paid up to drop into the SIPP, then can save another 20-30k by the end of summer .. so should have 40/50K ish in cash if there is an epic crash in the coming months. Not sure whether to gamble that there will be or not.

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Ta.  That's a big fat no for HL and co - very limited international market access (ignoring FTSE CDIs but these are also very limited).  AJ Bell the same.  II is a bit better but pricey for international trading and still not sufficient market access coverage.  Saxo are more expensive on holding costs but the average commission is less.  Exchange fees are the same at 1%, important as you cannot hold forex in an ISA so cannot trade into Forex holdings.  I thought the forex commission used to be 1.5% so was pleased to check back today and see 1%.  But £10 a month minimum (and no credit like with II) is more than my mobile charge!  That said, no-one seems to do the Moscow exchange but at least Saxo seem to do the Nordics and (fuller) Asia.

All the stuff international we talk about here eg exxon, chevron, nutrien, K&S, telenor, telia etc I've bought on HL, would they be not be in the correct or safest format as I recall we discussed something about risks of holding stuff through a nominee account

 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Bricormortis said:

Elderly up North refusing the Pfizer jab " they'd rather wait for the English one ! "

Off topic but they're probably shit scared that squaddies have been enlisted to jab them with the vaccine.

All this talk of getting the army involved has ended any 0.0000000000000000001% chance i had of taking the vaccine. The thought of some dopey squaddie fresh out the nick for scrapping out in town the previous night;  sticking needles into my arm to inject some of Bill Gates magic juice inside ... does not appeal in the slightest.

They really have overplayed this squaddies are heroes lark to think they're even vaguely capable of such a task.

Back to topic .....

[Bobthebuilder]

8 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Off topic but they're probably shit scared that squaddies have been enlisted to jab them with the vaccine.

All this talk of getting the army involved has ended any 0.0000000000000000001% chance i had of taking the vaccine. The thought of some dopey squaddie fresh out the nick for scrapping out in town the previous night;  sticking needles into my arm to inject some of Bill Gates magic juice inside ... does not appeal in the slightest.

They really have overplayed this squaddies are heroes lark to think they're even vaguely capable of such a task.

Back to topic .....

Personally I would trust the squaddies over anyone else.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

Pizza Express sauce is 10/10, tried doing my own but cant get near it, they've got the magic recipe.

Been leaving my dough out for a 3 days or more, yeast stinks of alcohol but it makes them even crispier.

Aldi now do a passata sauce with basil and oregano about 79p for a big bottle.Its really good.I freeze half and use half for 4 pizzas.

[Bricormortis]

 

 

 

27 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Off topic but they're probably shit scared that squaddies have been enlisted to jab them with the vaccine.

All this talk of getting the army involved has ended any 0.0000000000000000001% chance i had of taking the vaccine. The thought of some dopey squaddie fresh out the nick for scrapping out in town the previous night;  sticking needles into my arm to inject some of Bill Gates magic juice inside ... does not appeal in the slightest.

They really have overplayed this squaddies are heroes lark to think they're even vaguely capable of such a task.

Back to topic .....

Ive given loads of injections. Nothing to it, but you do need to know what to do if someone keels over.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Talking Monkey said:

All the stuff international we talk about here eg exxon, chevron, nutrien, K&S, telenor, telia etc I've bought on HL, would they be not be in the correct or safest format as I recall we discussed something about risks of holding stuff through a nominee account

 

Probably fine but I don't much like the structure or liquidity of CDIs and they do not cover markets like Asia which have been on a tear.  The US stuff is easy enough to buy direct in most accounts.  Maybe just me being me.

[ONC]

interesting article  from Jeremy Grantham (retired long term statagistnat GMU) entitled,

“Waiting for the last dance:  The hazards of assist allocation in late stage major bubble”

https://www.gmo.com/europe/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/

 

lots of good stuff that I am still digesting it. Love this quote about Tesla

” .. my favourite Tesla tidbit is that it’s market cap now over $600 billion, amounts to over $1.25million per car sold each year, versus $9000 per car for General Motors. What had 1929 got to equal that?”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[M S E Refugee]

If there are any RMG fans in the house we have just had our local figures through for Christmas and they are up massively from last year.

[Talking Monkey]

31 minutes ago, ONC said:

interesting article  from Jeremy Grantham (retired long term statagistnat GMU) entitled,

“Waiting for the last dance:  The hazards of assist allocation in late stage major bubble”

https://www.gmo.com/europe/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/

 

lots of good stuff that I am still digesting it. Love this quote about Tesla

” .. my favourite Tesla tidbit is that it’s market cap now over $600 billion, amounts to over $1.25million per car sold each year, versus $9000 per car for General Motors. What had 1929 got to equal that?”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Absolute belter of an article, well worth a read

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, Bricormortis said:

 

 

 

Ive given loads of injections. Nothing to it, but you do need to know what to do if someone keels over.

Call the nurse ?

[Talking Monkey]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

My money's on Royal Marines, 45 Commando. I've met a few US Marine Force Recon chaps on my travels and Harley reminds me of them!

I'm going with Army

[leonardratso]

20 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Call the nurse ?

i believe bricor may have branched out from injecting people(wimmin?) with his special syringe;

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/fake-doctor-performed-circumcisions-children-9555162

[Loki]

1 hour ago, ONC said:

interesting article  from Jeremy Grantham (retired long term statagistnat GMU) entitled,

“Waiting for the last dance:  The hazards of assist allocation in late stage major bubble”

https://www.gmo.com/europe/research-library/waiting-for-the-last-dance/

 

lots of good stuff that I am still digesting it. Love this quote about Tesla

” .. my favourite Tesla tidbit is that it’s market cap now over $600 billion, amounts to over $1.25million per car sold each year, versus $9000 per car for General Motors. What had 1929 got to equal that?”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Absolutely brilliant thanks for sharing

[RJT1979]

My dad had a 900k sipp last march. He lost 300k in the sell off. I told him to sell everything but didn't listen. He stayed invested but swapped into gold miners hydrogen and ev stocks. He now has 1.7m. Its unbelievable. I have told him to sell everything but don't think he will. Surely a crash coming within days. Does anybody know anyone who has done so well with a broad portfolio of stocks? Not just got lucky on a 30 bagger with 50k down. He has been using an online stock advisor service that he paid 5k for 5 years ago. Parents already have million quid house and don't spend anything much. I asked about giving more to myself and siblings but don't think he wants to pay 40pc tax. Crazy world.

[dgul]

3 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Personally I would trust the squaddies over anyone else.

And army medics 100x over NHS.

[wherebee]

Through the roof today and yesterday for oilies and others.  

Problem is I am now getting the urge to sell and lock in some profits ahead of the BK - but could be 6 months early during which time the value shares I sell will rocket up more and more.

I did sell the rest of one uranium miner, which put me 110% up on it in under a month.  Not a huge amount, turned 1k into 2k, but that's nice.

dilemmas.  dilemmas.