Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Hardhat]

3 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Through the roof today and yesterday for oilies and others.  

Problem is I am now getting the urge to sell and lock in some profits ahead of the BK - but could be 6 months early during which time the value shares I sell will rocket up more and more.

I did sell the rest of one uranium miner, which put me 110% up on it in under a month.  Not a huge amount, turned 1k into 2k, but that's nice.

dilemmas.  dilemmas.

I'm holding or adding oil and telecoms through another crash, but will take profits in PMs and a few other sectors if we hit some of the DaveH meltup targets (or aren't far off).

A few companies like Siemens are on my buy list for a BK. I think we will get one at some point. Then again, BP and Shell are only 20% off their March lows - it's not a bubble in commods, just in a few giant cap tech stocks and bitcoin, so who knows if the BK will even hit commods?

I've also been taking some cash off the table for a few months, although I have just gambled most of my cash pile on ARB.

[RJT1979]

This bubble won't burst until slow jo is in the oval office. Maybe a few months after.

[Metalheadz]

I'm interested to hear peoples strategies related to the BK. I think it's pretty much nailed on for this year, every day I read something new and think "this is nuts" and I'm sure it can't go on much longer. Elon Musk becoming the world richest man today feels like the perfect "shoeshine boy" indicator for me.

I'm sitting on a pile of "high risk" mining stocks and I have no intention of riding them through a BK. I did a bit of research and the average drop in March for my current portfolio was 50-70% so I'm pretty confident they'll get hammered. I dodged March completely (being a conspiracy nut-job is occasionally helpful) but not sure I'll have so much warning next time.

I'm hoping for DH style parabolic metals top around March/April that will give me a nice opportunity to cash out and then run for the hills... or at least rotate in something more dull and liquid. I get horrible FOMO and have zero patience but if I see DH's calls playing out I should be able to stick to my plan.

I've been updating stop losses each weekend but have had to keep them very loose - e.g. 25%+ as these things jump all over the place. For some large positions I've set multiple stops e.g. 15%, 20%, 25% as they'll be harder to offload. My platform (II) doesn't let me set stop losses for Australian shares so those are giving me sleepless nights - those will be the first to go.

The other thing that keeps me awake at night is GREED - I have nice gains on these already but the thought of cashing out at the top then buying back in at 70% off is quite exciting. Could save me a few years of working!

[Hunty]

Guys.

Why is it Retail investors. Find it easier to sit on a loss rather than a profit.

Don't sell BP. It's as cheap as chips.

We'll see a 4 handle this year.

The institution bandits want your shares. Don't sell.

I'm in @ 96k shares @ £250k. Would I sell. Go figure.

It's a bond paying 6% per annum along with capital growth.

Go figure. Buy in the dips. Hold long.

GLA...

[wherebee]

2 hours ago, Hunty said:

Guys.

Why is it Retail investors. Find it easier to sit on a loss rather than a profit.

Don't sell BP. It's as cheap as chips.

We'll see a 4 handle this year.

The institution bandits want your shares. Don't sell.

I'm in @ 96k shares @ £250k. Would I sell. Go figure.

It's a bond paying 6% per annum along with capital growth.

Go figure. Buy in the dips. Hold long.

GLA...

I know you're right.  

But I also know my fingers are itchy.  I just have to go chop down trees until they stop.

[ThoughtCriminal]

On 06/01/2021 at 13:54, Rave said:

Yes, that Ferguson, whose continued presence as a government advisor is what precipitated JMD's original post that I responded to. I took no issue with his observation of this fact.

 

Who's doing that then mate? Because if you think it's me, you very clearly need to try and improve your reading comprehension skills beyond primary school level.

You defended him. And got shown up because you're not acquainted with facts you clown. 

 

Run along sunshine. 

[CVG]

10 hours ago, Hancock said:

This is why i've dumped so much into my SIPP as to avoid income tax and by default getting child tax credits. Got a decent batch of money arriving soon once invoices are paid up to drop into the SIPP, then can save another 20-30k by the end of summer .. so should have 40/50K ish in cash if there is an epic crash in the coming months. Not sure whether to gamble that there will be or not.

Just a quick reminder for anyone who can (I know i Know) to pay into a Junior SIPP for their children. £2880 paid in and £720 added by the taxman, per year.

[geordie_lurch]

54 minutes ago, CVG said:

Just a quick reminder for anyone who can (I know i Know) to pay into a Junior SIPP for their children. £2880 paid in and £720 added by the taxman, per year.

I'm early 40s and haven't even started a SIPP for myself yet as never been in the position to but this last 12 months I have finally been able to max my ISA allowance for the first time. I'm hoping to try and do that each year for several years and if I can also commit a little to a SIPP too but I don't like my cash being locked into that until the Government say I can have access to it

Thanks again all on this thread for giving me the confidence to finally get my current stocks and shares ISA set up rather than cash ISAs

[Democorruptcy]

17 hours ago, Errol said:

I've been thinking this as well. My gut tells me something is not right. It's almost like people are being herded into Bitcoin/Crypto (and away from gold or anything else). CNBC and other media outlets are full of bitcoin this and bitcoin that.

Also there is the incessant nonsense about Bitcoin versus gold, when hardly any gold 'bugs' would even mention it (they don't care). But you can barely look at a gold post on Twitter without someone replying with 'bitcoin is better' etc.

It's also becoming increasingly strange that every article or media slot about bitcoin features a picture of bitcoin depicted as a gold coin (!).

Thanks for the info Errol. I had no idea Bitcoin was so much more popular than gold now. Thanks again for the tip and bringing this to light.

[Barnsey]

Confirmation somewhat of my house hunting experience shared on here in recent weeks

 

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, CVG said:

Just a quick reminder for anyone who can (I know i Know) to pay into a Junior SIPP for their children. £2880 paid in and £720 added by the taxman, per year.

Ive just stuck the child tax credit money in there. you saying they'll put even more in for me? Or are you talking about from taxable income?

[Barnsey]

One of the key relationships to pay attention to right now

 

[CVG]

12 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Ive just stuck the child tax credit money in there. you saying they'll put even more in for me? Or are you talking about from taxable income?

It's your child's allowance rather than yours. Yes, the taxman will consider that payment you made net of tax and add 20% usually in about 6-8 weeks. I usually make a payment in March and one in April (every two years) - the wait for the HMRC credit and allocate the entire £7200 in one go in order to minimise fees.

[Hunty]

Gap  Link

There's a Gap at ~ 2.72.5

It will be closed most probably.

Before BP goes higher. A nice dip to Top up.

She might go a little lower. Watch out for the MM's taking her down to fill it...

[Loki]

29 minutes ago, Hunty said:

Gap  Link

There's a Gap at ~ 2.72.5

It will be closed most probably.

Before BP goes higher. A nice dip to Top up.

She might go a little lower. Watch out for the MM's taking her down to fill it...

Nice one thanks Hunty, my parents finally got S&S ISAs and this would be a great first entry point 

[Harley]

42 minutes ago, Hunty said:

Gap  Link

There's a Gap at ~ 2.72.5

It will be closed most probably.

Before BP goes higher. A nice dip to Top up.

She might go a little lower. Watch out for the MM's taking her down to fill it...

Nice post.  Yes, the daily has got ahead of itself and it's currently in the Stochastic overbought zone.  I focus on the monthlies and would have had a signal (DYOR) with the MACD turn, etc had they been on my watchlist.  They're not due to their debt to equity ratio (currently 121%!).  Had a few other catches though!  Those recent candles look bullish.  This seems a very common chart pattern atm - a retrace back to the shoulder of their last down draught.  Hopefully a pullback before a break out.  Also note how price cleared the March candle wick low - looks like a clean bottom, BK, another mishap, etc allowing!  DYOR!  So what's your gig - trader, investor (type?) etc?  

PS:  Talking of gaps - has it properly filled the daily 9 March 20 one yet?

 

[Bricormortis]

11 hours ago, leonardratso said:

i believe bricor may have branched out from injecting people(wimmin?) with his special syringe;

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/fake-doctor-performed-circumcisions-children-9555162

You knock it but £125 quid is 125 quid.

[King Penda]

11 hours ago, RJT1979 said:

My dad had a 900k sipp last march. He lost 300k in the sell off. I told him to sell everything but didn't listen. He stayed invested but swapped into gold miners hydrogen and ev stocks. He now has 1.7m. Its unbelievable. I have told him to sell everything but don't think he will. Surely a crash coming within days. Does anybody know anyone who has done so well with a broad portfolio of stocks? Not just got lucky on a 30 bagger with 50k down. He has been using an online stock advisor service that he paid 5k for 5 years ago. Parents already have million quid house and don't spend anything much. I asked about giving more to myself and siblings but don't think he wants to pay 40pc tax. Crazy world.

He might be thinking of Germany and hyper inflation or just a tight fuck or the fact that it’s traditional to wait until someone is dead before they get any cash.but it’s more commonplace now with the bank of mum a dad . Ps my mums decided at 84 to distribute anything she has above 100k in cash to her kids has it’s finally dawned on her that it’s of no use to her but like I pointed out to my sisters don’t get excited she is getting fuck all in interest now the only way you will get anything next Christmas is if she spends less than she gets comeing in.

[King Penda]

3 hours ago, CVG said:

Just a quick reminder for anyone who can (I know i Know) to pay into a Junior SIPP for their children. £2880 paid in and £720 added by the taxman, per year.

Something similar for impoverished people like myself to encourage me to save ie free tax payer cash on top lol

[Barnsey]

 

[Heart's Ease]

I'll keep an eye out for this broadcast - which might be of interest.

DH gets mentioned a couple of times in the responses.

[Harley]

20 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

I'll keep an eye out for this broadcast - which might be of interest.

DH gets mentioned a couple of times in the responses.

Anyone seen @DurhamBorn recently?  Having a makeover?  Happy to be the bag carrier but only if I can stay at Raoul's gaff for a few weeks!

[geordie_lurch]

38 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

 

It's gone over £30,400 this morning

[Loki]

17 minutes ago, Harley said:

Anyone seen @DurhamBorn recently?

He replied to me yesterday

[JMD]

14 hours ago, harp said:

Whats a jomp? Or do you mean yomp? If so you were a Royal Marine? If it's jomp then you were a Royal Marine officer
And if you were Army, you know full well its called a tab!

Don't know if Harley meant yomp or jomp... but reminds me of 'gif'/'jif'... apparently it should be pronounced with a soft 'j' despite standing for graphic interchange format. Who knew? But I guess that's English for you, as in say gin/gate, etc, plus the inventor himself says its pronounced with a 'j', then again he is an American!

Anyhow enough treading water - ahem, so to speak(?!) - i believe Harley may have mentioned some time back what he did in past life. Could be wrong, so must let Harley comment if he so wishes.