Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[macca]

5 minutes ago, Hancock said:

If you ignore the epic levels of private sector borrowing, that destroyed the banking system and priced a generation out of home ownership. Followed by the debt needed for the bank bailouts and printing of money to cover that horrific decade of financial illiteracy on steroids.

Oh and not to mention PFI which merely hidden the debt and was just blatant corruption.

PFI invented by John major and ended later on under David Cameron..

All of these private companies just rape us.. I'm sick of paying massive tax bills and being raped by the corrupt rich people..

I'm buying a pitch fork.. let the revolt begin.

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, macca said:

PFI invented by John major and ended later on under David Cameron..

Cheers i thought it was the Blair creatures creation, though did take it to whole new levels.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/long_reads/pfi-banks-barclays-hsbc-rbs-tony-blair-gordon-brown-carillion-capita-financial-crash-a8202661.html
 

[macca]

3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Cheers i thought it was the Blair creatures creation, though did take it to whole new levels.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/long_reads/pfi-banks-barclays-hsbc-rbs-tony-blair-gordon-brown-carillion-capita-financial-crash-a8202661.html
 

I know Blair and brown were cunts.. I'm not disputing that

but the 1.6 trillion stolen by the Tories combined with the sales of the last of our assets and severe cuts to public services and additional taxes is not exactly the answer. They have taken corruption to the top level! 

They have fucked us all to death!  and stole all the money

https://www.ft.com/content/217d4312-257d-11ea-9305-4234e74b0ef3

[sancho panza]

On 25/09/2021 at 22:21, Hancock said:

If a few years ago DB had said i have a strategy to get you a 50% return on your investment in 10 years which will be the approx rate of inflation over this period; this topic wouldn't have got so popular. The reason its popular is because people on here could see it had the potential to give them rewards to enable them to retire early, and that potential reward is hardly due to breaking your back and working hard.

I think you're totally wrong on people's motivation.I'm here to maintain our standard of living/disposable income/provide my kids with options.

We live in three bed rented semi that's too small for us.We could afford a bigger place and to buy but I've explained to the Mrs the problems that are coming here and she understands we have to suffer a bit and not live up to our means so as to enable our kids to have choices in terms of mvoing/travelling/education.

For me this thread has always been about educating ourselves about what may come to pass and how best working people who have open minds,might best navigate those treacherous waters.

Retiring early is a Brucie but any decision to retire early is normally matched by a willingness to take a drop in standard of living to do so.

[Starsend]

1 hour ago, macca said:

Labour did not really create any debt it was fairly flat on borrowing though the Blair years,, (I don't like Blair and never voted for him)

The financial Crisis caused all of the borrowing. (Banker fraud). But under Tories the borrowing has never ended and the debt has gone out of control whilst everything has been fucked to death and all of the money sent to corporations, friends, family and donors..

We have been asset stripped! in 11 years of Tory

40'000 less nurses 

22'000 less police

700 less police stations

23'500 less back of house police

97% of all rapist now just walk free..

They closed courts

They privatised prisoner rehabilitation to a mate and re offending rates jumped 70%

7000 less firemen

Less fire stations 

Council budgets cut 49.5%

adult social care destroyed

Legal aid destroyed 

sold everything including ramping up NHS destruction to private vultures of big USA corporations and offshore tax avoiders like virgin care that pays 0% tax

GP surgeries sold to USA firm with terrible record for care

and on and on

But they kept borrowing? where did the £1.6 trillion go?

Tories are criminals.. I hate Blair but this is legalised corruption now

😂😂😂

[sancho panza]

On 25/09/2021 at 23:46, Hancock said:

 

Then i said your claim to be looking to "match inflation" is bollocks, and gave an example as to why. i.e. No fucker buys junior mining shares to "match inflation".

You never bothered answering this, instead tried but failed to be clever, by being condescending

The only person who said you're a cunt is you.

But people do buy junior PM miners to try and hedge CB incompetence and maintain their spending power.Seems perfectly reasonable and logical to me to try and give yourrself some leverage to the gold price if you think currncies could crash hard.

[wherebee]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

This is exactly it. I moved 10 ton of topsoil earlier this year with a shovel and barrow, it was a good reminder. Chainsaw ...same thing. But not many people remember this. Not many people have ever done hard physical work!

I saw and cut all my wood by hand.  It's a great reminder every time of how much energy use really matters.  I got my eldest son to cut up a tree last month by hand - boy was he complaining by the end.  Lesson learnt.

[mcdongle]

OPEC has no spare capacity........

[jamtomorrow]

6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I think you're totally wrong on people's motivation.I'm here to maintain our standard of living/disposable income/provide my kids with options.

I think we're all here because we want our wealth to "outperform" the majority/mainstream saver in some sense. Whether we think that means feathering our nests, or simply having a nest at all because there's a storm coming - take your pick.

I've worked hard to get to the position I'm in, but I've also been lucky and I've been reasonably well-rewarded.

I have no doubt I'll be the beneficiary of other people's hard work if I do get my "outperform". Many of them won't be so lucky as I've been, but some will be significantly luckier. I don't lose sleep either way.

[sleepwello'nights]

8 hours ago, macca said:

 

We have been asset stripped! in 11 years of Tory

40'000 less nurses 

22'000 less police

700 less police stations

23'500 less back of house police

97% of all rapist now just walk free..

They closed courts

They privatised prisoner rehabilitation to a mate and re offending rates jumped 70%

7000 less firemen

Less fire stations 

Council budgets cut 49.5%

adult social care destroyed

Legal aid destroyed 

sold everything including ramping up NHS destruction to private vultures of big USA corporations and offshore tax avoiders like virgin care that pays 0% tax

GP surgeries sold to USA firm with terrible record for care

and on and on

But they kept borrowing? where did the £1.6 trillion go?

Tories are criminals.. I hate Blair but this is legalised corruption now

This ties in with the earlier posts speculating on tax rises. For any government to rein in spending to prevent having to increase tax what will they cut. Looks as if they have reduced spending on all the essential functions that we expect government to provide.

 

[Hancock]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

But people do buy junior PM miners to try and hedge CB incompetence and maintain their spending power.Seems perfectly reasonable and logical to me to try and give yourrself some leverage to the gold price if you think currncies could crash hard.

I can accept people buying metals as a hedge, but these junior minors have as much chance of 20 bagging over the long term as they do of going bust or nationalised.

If there is a crash i'll jump in and buy a chunk of junior miners, but in my situation thats for making quick easy money, which could go some way towards buying a "simple fucken house", that the money i've got should have been able to buy ... its not a hedge.

 

[Innkeeper]

BP, Shell, minor oilies, services all powering ahead this morning.  

I’ve noticed the term ‘Energy Transition’ creeping in to corporate speak more often and I wonder if this will start to provide a convenient label for the pension funds and investment vehicles, who have been declaring they’re out of fossil fuels, to start investing again......

[Hancock]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I think you're totally wrong on people's motivation.I'm here to maintain our standard of living/disposable income/provide my kids with options.

We live in three bed rented semi that's too small for us.We could afford a bigger place and to buy but I've explained to the Mrs the problems that are coming here and she understands we have to suffer a bit and not live up to our means so as to enable our kids to have choices in terms of mvoing/travelling/education.

For me this thread has always been about educating ourselves about what may come to pass and how best working people who have open minds,might best navigate those treacherous waters.

Retiring early is a Brucie but any decision to retire early is normally matched by a willingness to take a drop in standard of living to do so.

No question this topic has been a great learning curve, what was predicted has happened, DB is Durhams own version of Nostradamus. It was the only thing worth reading on HPC.

 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

I think we're all here because we want our wealth to "outperform" the majority/mainstream saver in some sense. Whether we think that means feathering our nests, or simply having a nest at all because there's a storm coming - take your pick.

I've worked hard to get to the position I'm in, but I've also been lucky and I've been reasonably well-rewarded.

I have no doubt I'll be the beneficiary of other people's hard work if I do get my "outperform". Many of them won't be so lucky as I've been, but some will be significantly luckier. I don't lose sleep either way.

You're better with words than I.

People have been living off my eroded savings for a long time now, and i certainly won't lose sleep if it reverses. Just a ballache that i'm now in a position of having to wait for a BK.

I can only presume energy prices rising so fast will bring forward action from the central banks.

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, Innkeeper said:

BP, Shell, minor oilies, services all powering ahead this morning.  

I’ve noticed the term ‘Energy Transition’ creeping in to corporate speak more often and I wonder if this will start to provide a convenient label for the pension funds and investment vehicles, who have been declaring they’re out of fossil fuels, to start investing again......

I dont think they will,they are too stupid and woke.None of them remember the 70s,none of them use macro strategists.How they work is they follow the rhetoric and not the macro.Its how the market operaates.They,and almost everyone thinks somethings happening so invest that way.Two problems.First the narrative could be really wrong.Second,if everyone invests for the narrative then the profits simply arent there.

Most sectors of the market have capital already invested,new capital to invest,present demand,future demand.Thos interact.Right now we are entering a cost push part of the cycle,and thats been very very rare outside of war.

That means those who need to invest lots of capital,ie new energy etc will have to pay a lot more for the materials and labour etc.It will cost much more than they expect,meaning higher debts,lower ROCE.

Those with pre-invested capital,more so on longer term well spread low coupon debt and only steady demand gain,because they get to increase prices due to the inflation,but have a flat or falling investment need.

In renewables everyone is looking at the windmills and the solar etc,but they are simple,the real money will be in the converting of that energy when there is more than enough and the storing of it.They will need to store a lot.That means hydrogen,and it will be the big integrated energy companies who have the scale to do that.

[Hancock]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

David will be making his oil and oil stocks call based on when he sees the Fed tightening.He is one of the best in the world at understanding the Fed and how it operates.He understands their leads and lags into the credit markets as thats where they operate,not the stock markets.I suspect his oil call relies on production coming back just as demand falls again as the Fed tightens.However if production doesnt come back then that clashes with the demand situation.Davids call on the bust is because he sees the size of the credit and derivative markets being so large,that any tightening from the Fed will place too much strain somewhere and set off a bust.I think he might even see it starting very simply as corporate profits fall due to inflation shocking the markets.

Seems ultimately its down to the US 10 year getting near 2.5%.

 

[DurhamBorn]

It has it all.Doesnt want to support mining or fossil fuel while using everything those things produce.I love the advice about use an ethical building society account,ethical is stealing her saved labour with rates below inflation?.If she wants to help the planet maybe she could eat less?,where do the BBC find these losers?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58544966

 

[DoINeedOne]

Interesting listen someone here posted this guys podcast

 https://play.acast.com/s/the-david-mcwilliams-podcast/174-theproblemwithhousingzoning

[Hancock]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

It has it all.Doesnt want to support mining or fossil fuel while using everything those things produce.I love the advice about use an ethical building society account,ethical is stealing her saved labour with rates below inflation?.If she wants to help the planet maybe she could eat less?,where do the BBC find these losers?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58544966

 

They've been brainwashed for their entire life, my daughter was telling me there are 11/12 year old kids in her year group who are in tears after lessons on "man made" climate change.

And it seems schools/govt are ratcheting up the mind control to another level.

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

I think we're all here because we want our wealth to "outperform" the majority/mainstream saver in some sense. Whether we think that means feathering our nests, or simply having a nest at all because there's a storm coming - take your pick.

 

I'd just like my earned taxed saved money to earn 50% of house price inflation.

4 minutes ago, Hancock said:

They've been brainwashed for their entire life, my daughter was telling me there are 11/12 year old kids in her year group who are in tears after lessons on "man made" climate change.

And it seems schools/govt are ratcheting up the mind control to another level.

You dont think they always have ?

In 1939 they sent millions out to die....how do you achieve that, by telling the truth ?

[Boon]

Gold and silver have sucked for about a year now - had the proverbial Grand of Duke of York - gone up to the top of the hill but come back down again. 

Not watched the video but how does Hunters calls on these (ie $50 silver) correlate with 10yr yields of 2.5%?

[Hancock]

Just now, HousePriceMania said:

I'd just like my earned taxed saved money to earn 50% of house price inflation.

I now need my savings to rise by 30% to buy a house that i could have got a few years ago.

Hence in the situation i'm in, and with the stock market at these levels, its more like gambling as opposed to investing to catch up.  Waiting for a BK seems to be a gamble between losing more to inflation for the chance of a big win, and its probably where i'm at.

I looked at putting 10/20k in major silver miners  at todays prices, but then see silver price is about 50% higher than what its been for most the last decade (with a potential bust on the horizon)... so decided to pass for now!

 

[Hancock]

10 minutes ago, Boon said:

Gold and silver have sucked for about a year now - had the proverbial Grand of Duke of York - gone up to the top of the hill but come back down again. 

Not watched the video but how does Hunters calls on these (ie $50 silver) correlate with 10yr yields of 2.5%?

Just says it'll happen when it happens, if you scroll across the time line it highlights each topic of discussion, for gold its 30:50.

[Barnsey]

Expect the fuel chaos to calm down rather soon, but as I previously mentioned, we're slaves to fuel and energy more widely, this is one of the first of many shocks we'll no doubt encounter during this inflation transition. 

"Pleas for more coal"

A reminder for better or worse that the UK housing sector accounts for 20% of GDP.

 

[Noallegiance]

I'm Jekyl and Hyde right now.

Lovely watching our stocks going up but horrid hovering over the sell button to skim profit for cash for the correction.