Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Chewing Grass]

12 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

The current malaise the country is now in was kicked off by CV19.

Thankfully we have a vaccine for the terrible banker pocket lining disease.

However, 2 people I know, healthy adults are flat out on their backs now, struggling to recover from CV19. 

Both fully vaccinated.

The government seem to be full on re-open mode but things, around us for sure, are much worse than last year.

If you look at the number of people dying then the pattern is quite alarming.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Deaths currently approx 10x this time last year, this is with the vaccine.

The US, less fully vaccinated, showing deaths around double this time last year

Germany similar to the UK

 

 

If this trend continues, you are looking at a peak of 18,000 people dying per day this winter.

Or can this be explained by some pent up demand for the after life ?

Is everyone confident if this continues to worsen world wise this wont cause a 2nd stock market collapse ?

 

Deaths about 10-15% above long term averages, most recent data is August for UK.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales

[Boon]

One side effect that I would have thought I would seen by now are loads of probate properties from people that had died with Covid.

Is this something you can track @HousePriceMania?

I actually think that the definition of covid death is rather loose and covers quite a lot of things -ie if you have terminal cancer but catch covid and die it ends up as covid.

I wonder if the other causes of death have taken a nosedive because covid has claimed it for them. But it would seem illogical to present it like this, using this definition we could claim we are making great breakthroughs in cancer treatment by virtue of the death rates decreasing when that stat is meaningless.

I suspect the number of genuine excess deaths solely attributable to covid is not close to what the stats say. But someone young with no underyling conditions is very newsworthy, doubly so if they are unvaxxed.

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

Healthcare is free of charge in Poland, incuding dentistry.

It's also shit beyond human recognition, including dentistry.

Nothings free...

[spygirl]

7 minutes ago, Boon said:

One side effect that I would have thought I would seen by now are loads of probate properties from people that had died with Covid.

Is this something you can track @HousePriceMania?

I actually think that the definition of covid death is rather loose and covers quite a lot of things -ie if you have terminal cancer but catch covid and die it ends up as covid.

I wonder if the other causes of death have taken a nosedive because covid has claimed it for them. But it would seem illogical to present it like this, using this definition we could claim we are making great breakthroughs in cancer treatment by virtue of the death rates decreasing when that stat is meaningless.

I suspect the number of genuine excess deaths solely attributable to covid is not close to what the stats say. But someone young with no underyling conditions is very newsworthy, doubly so if they are unvaxxed.

I'm seeing more probates in Scarboro.

Always on the cards as local population was skewed.

Covid has cranked up tge deaths but also making people about moving elsewhere to retire.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

22 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

The current malaise the country is now in was kicked off by CV19.

Thankfully we have a vaccine for the terrible banker pocket lining disease.

However, 2 people I know, healthy adults are flat out on their backs now, struggling to recover from CV19. 

Both fully vaccinated.

The government seem to be full on re-open mode but things, around us for sure, are much worse than last year.

If you look at the number of people dying then the pattern is quite alarming.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Deaths currently approx 10x this time last year, this is with the vaccine.

The US, less fully vaccinated, showing deaths around double this time last year

Germany similar to the UK

 

 

If this trend continues, you are looking at a peak of 18,000 people dying per day this winter.

Or can this be explained by some pent up demand for the after life ?

Is everyone confident if this continues to worsen world wise this wont cause a 2nd stock market collapse ?

 

Look at the wavelength. I don't think it is a year. If I'm right we're near the current peak. The next peak would be Spring with a build up during late winter.

Height of the wave affected by the season but the length fairly constant.

[JimmyTheBruce]

Transports are up quite a bit today.  Is this cos they've hedged their fuel costs?

After the big bump off the back of the potential merger announcement last week, my Stagecoach are in danger of getting out of the red. 

[Gin]

Residents in north-east China are experiencing unannounced power cuts, as an electricity shortage which initially hit factories spreads to homes.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58704221

[CVG]

37 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Covid has cranked up tge deaths but also making people about moving elsewhere to retire.

Probably also desperate to get away from Spy's penetrating gaze and insistence on reminding them that 20% will be dead in the next 10 years.

[DurhamBorn]

21 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

Transports are up quite a bit today.  Is this cos they've hedged their fuel costs?

After the big bump off the back of the potential merger announcement last week, my Stagecoach are in danger of getting out of the red. 

Yes,my bull case on them was because they hedge 3 to 5 years out and would see a quick jump in free cash growth when whats happening now happened.Thats coming true,but from a lower base for the shares than expected.The roadmap was right,but in simple terms i overpaid for the shares,bought far too early,and ladders helped me get out with a small profit,but it should of been a large one.Like you say reducing losses much lower or getting into profit is still good so they dont detrct from the big winners elsewhere.

[Harley]

58 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is everyone confident if this continues to worsen world wise this wont cause a 2nd stock market collapse ?

A very good chance.  I'm on foundations and drainage atm.  True crashes start slowly,eating away at the foundations while everything looks gloriously fine on top.   The good things flourish in short fits and starts while the foundations continue to be slowly but relentlessly hollowed out.  And then the two meet.  But by then they might have finished building the receiving emergency shelter of a prison opposite! 

[Harley]

22 minutes ago, Gin said:

Residents in north-east China are experiencing unannounced power cuts, as an electricity shortage which initially hit factories spreads to homes.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58704221

Just as well they outlawed crypto mining.  Oh, excuse me, the msm had that down as them being nasty or summing.  I know of only one commentator (financial of course) who saw the real picture.

PS:  Yes, banned in part to stop capital flight too. 

[jamtomorrow]

1 hour ago, invalid said:

I've heard of people driving long distances just to get fuel, crazy that people are wasting 1/4 of a tank to get a fill up, pure waste

I was looking into helping out family who live some miles away by releasing some of the Tomorrow Towers Strategic Diesel Reserve, but gave it up as a bad job when the logistics started to resemble a Vulcan bomber raid on Port Stanley

[Harley]

1 hour ago, belfastchild said:

Anecdotal I know but Ive had two EV drivers contact me in the last week asking if they can come round see my solar/battery setup as electricity prices have gone through the roof here.
They both used to get free charging at work but now have to charge at home and even though they are using the car less the vampire/phantom drain is starting to hurt.

Many thanks for your timely posts because they got me looking at alt domestic energy (been an old action item of mine).  I've been busy researching, as much to build critical supply resilience as the traditional domestic solar generation.  Some interesting options out there, but require careful planning and integration (plenty of technical gotchas).  Best I message you later if that's ok rather than derail the thread and/or resurrect one of the old threads.

[Bricormortis]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

And look at what these excess deaths are from. Cardiovascular, strokes etc. 

 

Hmmmm............. 

I read recently that there was a major underdiagnosis of serious health conditons during lockdown, and it corelates very well with the excess deaths we are now seeing, by type, eg cardiovascular issues. This would seem to explain it and likely will be on going for several years.

[Noallegiance]

47 minutes ago, Gin said:

Residents in north-east China are experiencing unannounced power cuts, as an electricity shortage which initially hit factories spreads to homes.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58704221

Damn you Brexit

[spygirl]

41 minutes ago, CVG said:

Probably also desperate to get away from Spy's penetrating gaze and insistence on reminding them that 20% will be dead in the next 10 years.

Its 50%.

Even before coof, 50% of people 65 and older will be dead in 10 years time.

I'm curious about how coof will accelerate this.

At the mo, it just looks like its knocking a few months off oaps in care homes.

Oh and getting rid of obese COPD people.

[Noallegiance]

Mini nukes to get boost from Government funding (msn.com)

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

I think the slope of the curves is more important than comparing week to week. Conditions are different now than this time last year in the UK, international travel, large crowds. The slope of deaths is linear to flat. If it stays linear, it's over.

I agree.  "if", that's the big question.  Worth keeping an eye on.  As I said, I personally know 2 people who have been flattened by it in the last couple of weeks.  It they were 75+, think they'd be goners.

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Boon said:

One side effect that I would have thought I would seen by now are loads of probate properties from people that had died with Covid.

Is this something you can track @HousePriceMania?

I actually think that the definition of covid death is rather loose and covers quite a lot of things -ie if you have terminal cancer but catch covid and die it ends up as covid.

I wonder if the other causes of death have taken a nosedive because covid has claimed it for them. But it would seem illogical to present it like this, using this definition we could claim we are making great breakthroughs in cancer treatment by virtue of the death rates decreasing when that stat is meaningless.

I suspect the number of genuine excess deaths solely attributable to covid is not close to what the stats say. But someone young with no underyling conditions is very newsworthy, doubly so if they are unvaxxed.

No way of tracking that I know of, but this fella in on twitter

 

 

He might be able to give an update.  I'll ping him a message.

No idea, what 10 listings appeared from one tweet

[HousePriceMania]

Just when you thought it cant get any worse...

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/26/uk-essar-energy-second-biggest-oil-refinery-on-brink-of-collapse-reports

 

Stanlow oil refinery ‘on brink of collapse’ as crisis talks continue

[HousePriceMania]

32 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yep, I know one person flattened by it, a year later. It's a real thing all right. That said, post viral syndrome is not new, or the likes of glandular fever. Some people are just unlucky. I'll be keeping an eye on it all right, but as I said the slope of the UK curve strongly suggests to me that vaccines are preventing the majority of serious illnesses and deaths. It has not grown in a biological (exponential) manner. And it has been hyped out of all recognition. Norway, Sweden and Denmark have now returned their societies fully to normal, fireworks were going off in Stavanger last night, huge street party, my mates over there were telling me. In terms of the world economy, it'll be very hard for whoever is behind the scaremongering to continue with countries like those, and states like Florida and Texas being completely open. It'll fade into the background as another common cold virus, like the other four human coronavirues I think.

It does sound to me like the governments dont have the stomach for another lock down so will look through inflation people dying this winter and hope it'll all fizzle out.

I personally think it will but if you see 20,000 a day dying, they'll panic.

I have a friend in Australia and I pinged him today to see if all the stuff you see on the internet about the Australian police being heavy handed is true.

It seems it is.  He's not allowed to go more than 3 miles from his home.  He's basically been under house arrest for 3 months.  He's been coerced into having the jab through threat of having his rights removed, e.g. ability to shop for food.  Someone he knows caught it and had daily visits from the Army !!!!

Whatever is going on in Oz is not great for freedom.

P.S. I meant to say, house prices round him are up 30% and everyone is losing their jobs/businesses shutting down.  No one has any idea what the hell is happening.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I bet Aldi and lidl have no staff retention problems given they've always seemed to pay well and not treat people like shit. 

 

67k a year for a store manager after 5 years. 

Actually I think they'd benefit from replacing some of their 'male East European shelf stackers' - anyone notice how they throw the food about? Bit anecdotal maybe, however I've frequently noticed it typically being the longer term staff members, middle aged yet curiously having the demeanour of H Enfield's Kevin the teenager. Anyway, I'm sick of bruised fruit and broken biscuits!! ...and am only really asking for the basics to be gotten right!?                                                                                                                                                         Oh and a delivery service please, I get it that the big supermarkets run their deliveries at a loss and it's only the economies of scale that allows them to operate them at all. But It will be interesting to see how Aldi/llidl  play this.   ...To be clear, I like Aldi/Lidl, my critisisms are to spur them on, because I really despise the arrogance and power of the big 4.

[planit]

My Bold, brave guy to go against the DOSBODDERS, he sounds pretty desparate. Not a great week for him. 

 

Bearish Hedge Fund Manager: ‘Nothing Can Save Oil’

 

The oil industry is in a terminal decline, hedge fund manager James Jampel told Bloomberg on Friday, noting that this year’s rise in oil stocks has been “the biggest dead-cat bounce in history.”

Jampel, who manages the HITE Carbon Offset hedge fund that aims to profit from decarbonization by “shorting decarbonization losers”, is extremely bearish on oil, despite the 33-percent rise of the S&P’s energy index this year.

The oil industry will be the loser of the energy transition, says Jampel, whose $187-million hedge fund is focused on shorting the most overvalued and vulnerable stocks in the carbon value chain, such as producers, transporters, marketers, processors, and users of oil, natural gas, and coal.

“Industries where volume is declining, where demand is declining, have a lot of trouble making money,” Jampel told Bloomberg in an interview published on Friday.

According to the hedge fund manager, nothing can save oil as the energy transition will only accelerate from here thanks to improving technologies for alternative energy sources.

Despite being short on oil, Jampel isn’t long on renewable energy and renewable assets.

“The reason we don’t do that is because that kind of fund would be far, far too volatile,” the hedge fund manager told Bloomberg.

Jampel’s hedge fund is betting that the broader market will outperform old energy.

This year, inflows into U.S. large-cap energy funds have jumped as oil demand started to recover and oil prices reflected this recovery. Last week, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA:XLE) saw the fourth highest inflows into U.S. large-cap funds at $1 billion.

Shares in several U.S.-based oil firms have provided more than 100-percent returns so far this year, excluding dividends. The five top returns were Antero Resources Corporation with 206.6% year-to-date share return as of last week, Range Resources Corporation with 182.8%, Continental Resources with 157.5%, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation with 136.7%, and PDC Energy with 114.6%.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

 

[Noallegiance]

I read so much I'm confused now.

Is there actually an oil shortage? Is it a macro lead/lag thing? Is it that the oil is there but we just can't get it to the right place?

Anecdotally, I went to fill up last Thursday at a BP before all this kicked off and many pumps were already empty.

[JMD]

Not sure if this has been posted before. But more confirmation that financial institutions are buying up residential property investments. In this case P2P lender Lend Invest, which has a long standing relationship with JP Morgan, has sold to it £100 million worth of its UK BTL mortgage portfolio.                                                                                    https://www.propertyfundsworld.com/2021/09/22/306520/lendinvests-sells-gbp100m-btl-portfolio-jp-morgan.