Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, feed said:

Unfortunately it's not just me. 

That's what £600k will get within a mile of me. 

Whitby just over 200 miles away and i haven't been in the office since March 2020.  

 

 

I always forget how little your money buys down south. 

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/109644170#/?channel=COM_BUY

 

295k gets you a new build "stables" ready to become a bungalow with 6 acres near the North Yorkshire national Park. 

Actually dont look too closely, the more i look at that the more i like it 🤔😂

[ThoughtCriminal]

20 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Ive just looked at both Whitby and Scabby and its not much cheaper than Salisbury where i've been looking at as a plan B.

Only difference with the north is you can buy an ex council house in Stabsville for next to nothing, whereas ex-council houses in the south can cost an absolute fortune.

Yeah, i think the value up north is rural properties in the helmsley, thirsk area, good access to A19 and rail. Northumberland also good. 

 

But you can get ripped off even up here. 

[spygirl]

21 hours ago, Starsend said:

I understand that but still not convinced. They've been happy trying to increase GDP (and hence the tax take) by adding more workers for decades. Old habits die hard.

Getting millions of single mums off of benefits or even reducing them much is going to be extremely difficult, never mind to the point where people working are better off than them. They'll be screeches about the children the moment they try. Entire system is too fucked to fix imo. Collapse the only way.

Noone likes single mums on benefits other than the single mums n Labour party wimmin.

Teachers hate them. People living near them hate them. Single mums who's kids are over 18 hate them.....

Like drunk homeless, Labour for mental reasons, put a halo on them.

Reading Kiers epic, you can see hes trying to row back a lot from from that and the public sector. Hes just struggling  to say it directly.

Its not hard to get them off bennies. Just look at the 2 child limit.

Just stop giving them money - raise the hours, drop the kids age to 11. Sorted.

 

 

[spygirl]

9 hours ago, Phil said:

My point was the waste of productiveness, and yes, there is a cost to everything, and someone always pays, agreed. There will always be the mates rates. I mentioned mandatory training to do a job. Driving for example would be a good one. I would say there is a lot of people who would at say 30 +, love to change their job. If you’ve got the family thing going on it can be difficult to pay for the training. The bs about drivers earning shed loads is bs. Even at £20 ph, the life must be grim. That’s how I see it. Importing from Europe may be needed temporarily, but long term access to productive “free” training is a good thing long term ( 10 yrs say).

It depends. The shit thing about hgv are the nights away and shit hours - starting at 5am to get a load into a shop by 8am.

With the move to big warehouses there are now jobs where you are shifting loads during the day, almost 9 to 5.

Better logistics, mobile phones updates and a lot of dumb shit goes away.

 

[Starsend]

12 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Noone likes single mums on benefits other than the single mums n Labour party wimmin.

Teachers hate them. People living near them hate them. Single mums who's kids are over 18 hate them.....

Like drunk homeless, Labour for mental reasons, put a halo on them.

Reading Kiers epic, you can see hes trying to grow back a lit from from that and tge public sector. Hes just struggling  to say it directly.

Its not hard to get them off bennies. Just look at the 2 child limit.

Just stop giving them money - raise the hours, drop the kids age to 11. Sorted.

 

 

A man and a woman both working can barely affford a house and kids. How is a single mum with a couple of bratts ever going to put a roof over her kids heads all by herself without bennies?

It's a rare woman who can support herself and kids without getting money from government or a man. I see no easy fix. Gonna take twenty years - if they have the balls to do what's needed, which they won't.

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Gonna take twenty years

Unfortunately they only have ten

 

[spygirl]

15 minutes ago, Starsend said:

A man and a woman both working can barely affford a house and kids. How is a single mum with a couple of bratts ever going to put a roof over her kids heads all by herself without bennies?

It's a rare woman who can support herself and kids without getting money from government or a man. I see no easy fix. Gonna take twenty years - if they have the balls to do what's needed, which they won't.

A man n wife struggle because they are paying for a couple of single mums.

Sort out bennies. The first step is removing them from the EUers n elsewhere.

Next step is to cap HB. Then bump up qualifying hours. It'll take less than 5 years.

[Hancock]

14 minutes ago, Starsend said:

A man and a woman both working can barely affford a house and kids. How is a single mum with a couple of bratts ever going to put a roof over her kids heads all by herself without bennies?

It's a rare woman who can support herself and kids without getting money from government or a man. I see no easy fix. Gonna take twenty years - if they have the balls to do what's needed, which they won't.

Im a single parent male, and in hindsight should have gone down the route of getting a council house. But this thread is full of people who are looking to make a quick buck on shares and on the back of someone elses labour so they don't have to work. It's merely doing what you've got to do to survive.

Blaming single parent women is a cop out to the utter fuck up of a society 45 years the LIBLABCON have overseen, besides the children of these women have a father somewhere who is also reliant on the state to fund their child in one form or another.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

this thread is full of people who are looking to make a quick buck on shares and on the back of someone elses labour so they don't have to work. outpace inflation, just.

FTFY

[spygirl]

54 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Im a single parent male, and in hindsight should have gone down the route of getting a council house. But this thread is full of people who are looking to make a quick buck on shares and on the back of someone elses labour so they don't have to work. It's merely doing what you've got to do to survive.

Blaming single parent women is a cop out to the utter fuck up of a society 45 years the LIBLABCON have overseen, besides the children of these women have a father somewhere who is also reliant on the state to fund their child in one form or another.

I cant think of many local instances of a single mums baby father whose holding down a tax paying job.

There was little to no poverty in the UK when Brown started on his saviour of the poor crusade. So he made up the poverty stats.

He wanted to be seen as a Kier Hardie type, shodding the feet of TB riddled street urchins.

All he did was pay for mams Lambrini and a trip to Turkey - in term time.

[Democorruptcy]

21 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its not that they care about the workers,its they care about systemic collapse and the economy will roll over without massive wage inflation.Remember they will be hedged themselves from the inflation.Its about lifting wages so they can tax them and also making the gap bigger with welfare.The interesting part is housing.I dont think the higher wages will be enough above inflation to stop a big correction.I dont do much on housing,but i think the housing market will top this month then enter a 2 year minimum bear market.

The problem is that for years "the economy" = "house prices".  The more wages go up the more leverage there is to stop house prices rolling over. The only way that stops, is if lending multiples are reduced (IF interest rates rise?). There would probably be more outcry about credit being reduced, than there's been about covid restrictions.

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

The problem is that for years "the economy" = "house prices".  The more wages go up the more leverage there is to stop house prices rolling over. The only way that stops, is if lending multiples are reduced (IF interest rates rise?). There would probably be more outcry about credit being reduced, than there's been about covid restrictions.

Wages haven't gone up much.

You might be surprised but the value of outstanding mortgage debt has barely shifted, as fewer houses are sold.

Anyone clinging to the desperate hope that IRs wont go up as people cant afford them hasn't seen actual level of outstanding mortgage debt. Mmr has done its job.

What hasn't happened since 2010 is the ho falls to match the more limited mortgage finances. That's zirp n btl for you.

[Hancock]

26 minutes ago, Loki said:

FTFY

Bollocks.

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Bollocks.

Not really, if I was trying to do that I'd be avidly following the shitcoin threads.

Who the hell would use a macro thread for the chance of quick and easy gains like you seem to describe?

[Hancock]

5 minutes ago, Loki said:

Who the hell would use a macro thread for the chance of quick and easy gains like you seem to describe?

People who buy gold/silver mining shares looking to multibag ... people looking to time a crash so they can get maximum gains.

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Hancock said:

People who buy gold/silver mining shares looking to multibag ... people looking to time a crash so they can get maximum gains.

Let me just get this clear, you're equating investing in productive companies and exercising market diligence with spending a lifetime on the dole?

[Hancock]

31 minutes ago, Loki said:

Let me just get this clear, you're equating investing in productive companies and exercising market diligence with spending a lifetime on the dole?

That's not what i said.

But you're not investing in some African mining company where workers are cannon fodder to "match inflation", you're doing so to grab excessive gains of someone elses labour, and outsmart other people who you hope aren't as good at timing the market as yourself. 

You're hardly doing this for a noble cause of "matching inflation", its purely to enrich yourself with vast gains. Nothing wrong with that, you're just doing what you've got to do to get by.

If a few years ago DB had said i have a strategy to get you a 50% return on your investment in 10 years which will be the approx rate of inflation over this period; this topic wouldn't have got so popular. The reason its popular is because people on here could see it had the potential to give them rewards to enable them to retire early, and that potential reward is hardly due to breaking your back and working hard.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

That's not what i said.

But you're not investing in some African mining company where workers are cannon fodder to "match inflation", you're doing so to grab excessive gains of someone elses labour, and outsmart other people who you hope aren't as good at timing the market as yourself. 

You're hardly doing this for a noble cause of "matching inflation", its purely to enrich yourself with vast gains. Nothing wrong with that, you're just doing what you've got to do to get by.

If a few years ago DB had said i have a strategy to get you a 50% return on your investment in 10 years which will be the approx rate of inflation over this period; this topic wouldn't have got so popular. The reason its popular is because people on here could see it had the potential to give them rewards to enable them to retire early, and that potential reward is hardly due to breaking your back and working hard.

Do you get paid when you go to work?  I do.

My day rate is also less than the company I am working for charges for me to be on site.  Is that excessive gains of someone else's labour (In the real sense of the words since they wield pens and keyboards and I wear steel toe boots)

TBH in my opinion your post contains a bizarre mish mash of statements, that I really can't be bothered to dissect.

tl;dr yes I'm a cunt and I know I am, don't care.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

tl;dr yes I'm a cunt and I know I am, don't care.

I said people on here were looking "to make a quick buck on shares and on the back of someone elses labour, so they don't have to work and can have an easier life". 

Then i said your claim to be looking to "match inflation" is bollocks, and gave an example as to why. i.e. No fucker buys junior mining shares to "match inflation".

You never bothered answering this, instead tried but failed to be clever, by being condescending

The only person who said you're a cunt is you.

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Then i said your claim to be looking to "match inflation" is bollocks, and gave an example as to why. i.e. No fucker buys junior mining shares to "match inflation".

You never bothered answering this, instead tried but failed to be clever, by being condescending

 

I didn't bother answering it because it's a fucking stupid thing to say.  The only difference between beating inflation and making a quick buck is time, you realise most on here including me are/were in the red with miners?

So does where does the risk of capital loss figure in your equation? 

[Phil]

19 minutes ago, Loki said:

I didn't bother answering it because it's a fucking stupid thing to say.  The only difference between beating inflation and making a quick buck is time, you realise most on here including me are/were in the red with miners?

So does where does the risk of capital loss figure in your equation? 

I'm not. Haven't got any. Lol

[Harley]

Wow, an excellent run through it all, once he gets going.  I would have said exactly the same, bar being in the 1%!  Uncanny.

https://palisadesradio.ca/matthew-piepenburg-a-new-currency-system-is-emerging/

"Talking Points From This Episode:  Market distortions, valuations, and why everything is momentum-based. Fed’s magic tricks and unsustainable debt levels. CBDCs, inflation, the end of the dollar, and gold"

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

Wow, an excellent run through it all, once he gets going.  I would have said exactly the same, bar being in the 1%!  Uncanny.

https://palisadesradio.ca/matthew-piepenburg-a-new-currency-system-is-emerging/

"Michael discusses how everything is backward and nothing is real anymore. During Alan Greenspan’s time at the Fed everything changed and Wall Street has become a circus. Today’s policies would have been unthinkable back in the 90s. Fundamentals barely matter and the new solutions are toxic....."

Pallisades is great, I must have scrolled past this one.  Will check it out (But not tonight)  

[JMD]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The BOE has pretty much printed the welfare budget for 13 years.We pay £100 billion a year to people to do nothing at all.Every incentive to do the wrong thing,little incentive to do the right thing.People working 16 hours in NMW jobs are driving around in BMWs and Mercs if they have a couple of kids and one down as ADHD.

The cycle of dis-inflation that allowed this has now ended.We gave Sharon her bennies and an ex farm worker in China did her work for her.Now that is being removed Sharon will have to work.Government doesnt know what to do because they are so scared of the left and the media,but they will have no choice.The cycle is in play now.Command economy will be part of it for certain,because they cant get half the population to give up bennies and work overnight.

 

Yes (but as the thread is so full of late of gloomy posts I shall continue the trend) is the government actually scared of the left or of the media? After all the last 18 months could be seen as an interesting/successful dry run experiment on discovering the strength of opposition out there. To be clear, on balance I personally think that covid was a (useful but fortuatous) panic-demic rather than a plan-demic.                                                                                                                                                                                               As for the problem of quickly changing hearts and minds, or rapidly converting work-shy bennie's into worker bees, etc, I think that for any command economy to succeed it would need a 'war-time' theme. So maybe fully exploit our current 3-Cs - that would be war on Covid (any variant will do), war against Climate change, and a (proxy) war with China!     ...Alternatively (but mainly just so I can contrive yet more C's) Covid could be cured, the Climate crises could be contained by carbon capture, and China conveniently caves(in).                                                                                                                         ...Of course all this talk could/should be seen as idle pointless conjecture, but my base-case remains (btw, i didn't think any of this 2 years ago) - that the above types of existential emergencies, and the resulting omni-shambles, will provide ample cover and excuse for all kinds of nefarious government activities. However, regardless of how good/bad the policies - and/or - how strong/weak our leaders are, there probably will be no escaping our 2030ish date with destiny!?

[Mapper]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Wow, an excellent run through it all, once he gets going.  I would have said exactly the same, bar being in the 1%!  Uncanny.

https://palisadesradio.ca/matthew-piepenburg-a-new-currency-system-is-emerging/

"Talking Points From This Episode:  Market distortions, valuations, and why everything is momentum-based. Fed’s magic tricks and unsustainable debt levels. CBDCs, inflation, the end of the dollar, and gold"

I'll second this, was going to post it. He is anti-fed and a gold dealer. He talks in monologues combining mulitple points, but is very easy to listen to.

One point he made is that debt to GDP of over 130%(?) has never been sustainable and will eventually lead to collapse. He references Luke Gromen who is another interesting guy to listen to on this stuff.

Btw am I the only one who enjoys it when Tom introduces himself?

"Welcome to Palisades Gold Radio, I'm your host Tom Bo~~~~". I know what his name is, but I can never make it out when he says it.