Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[ThoughtCriminal]

40 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

I’m tempted. But, I’m convinced - personal opinion only - that a grid connected SMR is a very long way in the future. They will likely get funding for a demonstrator in North Wales. It’s all going to take a long time though, in my view. ..... Could still be a good buy. Not sure.

Are you saying it's not possible due to physical constraints, T? 

 

So it wouldn't matter how much money the government threw at it, it just takes as long as it takes? 

 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

What bubble? 🤔

[Transistor Man]

34 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

My bet: now Government have seen the whites of the eyes of the coming energy crisis, it's a matter of time before every fiscal weapon they can lay their hands on is firing at it.

Think "national emergency" level funding for SMR *and* whatever sweeteners it takes for a new fleet of GW class plants *and* direct funding for a new fast breeder programme *and* acceleration funding for fusion.

And of course, oil and gas is the only show in town until that fiscal wave shows up as on-grid generating capacity. 

I’d like to see it. Perhaps with the Accelerator Driven Subcritical Reactor as a burner ..../ breeder. There should be far more interest in that concept than there is. 

[MrXxxx]

11 hours ago, spygirl said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-56624799

The reports said there had been a "very slight decrease in the number of absences due to mental health in January", but added: "Although with a recorded absence rate of 28.8 per cent, mental health continues to dominate the primary reason for absences across the trust.

That number has been managed down, tru figures are getting towards 40%.

The abuse of staff is a straw grasping exercise, using the normal drunjs in AnE to try and justify those awful numbers.

 

 

So how does that relate to your migrants statement?

[Transistor Man]

20 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Are you saying it's not possible due to physical constraints, T? 

 

So it wouldn't matter how much money the government threw at it, it just takes as long as it takes? 

 

 

No, there are no physical limits. It’s just a PWR. Nothing too hot, or too novel. 

Its just a new reactor. Usually these move at a glacial pace. 

Somethings like Licensing could be cut down to a minimum.

[MrXxxx]

9 hours ago, macca said:

40'000 less nurses working in the NHS since the Tories took over 11 years ago.. The wages and the cost of becoming a nurse after the Tories stopped the bursary are the biggest problem.

Source/reference?

[ThoughtCriminal]

3 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Source/reference?

Lets face it, the biggest problem with the nhs is.......the NHS. A model so good that nobody copied it. 

 

Europeans think we're pathetic for our obsession with it: "Do Brits think they invented hospitals?" as one mystified Italian put it to me. That Olympics ceremony was a national embarrassment. 

 

Europe uses a mix of private, charities and even local authorities running hospitals. "Socialist" Sweden even charges for GP visits and other procedures. 

 

Only here do we think the government should fund it AND run every aspect. 

 

Anyway, im thread derailing so ill zip it. 

 

 

[spygirl]

1 minute ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Lets face it, the biggest problem with the nhs is.......the NHS. A model so good that nobody copied it. 

 

Europeans think we're pathetic for our obsession with it: "Do Brits think they invented hospitals?" as one mystified Italian put it to me. That Olympics ceremony was a national embarrassment. 

 

Europe uses a mix of private, charities and even local authorities running hospitals. "Socialist" Sweden even charges for GP visits and other procedures. 

 

Only here do we think the government should fund it AND run every aspect. 

 

Anyway, im thread derailing so ill zip it. 

 

 

Its a monopoly.

Does not matter if a monopoly is private or public, you get the same.

 

 

[Barnsey]

"We actually employ more of our drivers directly than a majority of the market and on leading terms and conditions and finally a lot of what we source is British and that means our supply chains are a little shorter and easier to control."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58701889

Aldi going to do rather well going forward I'd imagine.

[invalid]

15 hours ago, JMD said:

Interesting but can you give an example of those seeds of wisdom you are passing down to your children?

 

By giving some real life examples from my jobs.

I don't want to directly say it, would rather give some anecdotes that helps them work it out for themselves should they end up in that situation.

But I don't want them to think that being lazy is the answer, working hard does pay if done in the right way or when working for the right company.

[ThoughtCriminal]

6 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

"We actually employ more of our drivers directly than a majority of the market and on leading terms and conditions and finally a lot of what we source is British and that means our supply chains are a little shorter and easier to control."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58701889

Aldi going to do rather well going forward I'd imagine.

I bet Aldi and lidl have no staff retention problems given they've always seemed to pay well and not treat people like shit. 

 

67k a year for a store manager after 5 years. 

[Democorruptcy]

10 hours ago, macca said:

Well to be honest the Tories are the problem with everything,, they have fucked it all to death! And stolen all the money!

Not a Tory fan but just saying

Quote

 

17 May 2010 The former chief secretary to the Treasury, Liam Byrne, has reignited criticism of Labour's stewardship of the economy with a note for his successor which said "there's no money left".

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/may/17/liam-byrne-note-successor

 

 

[Barnsey]

4 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I bet Aldi and lidl have no staff retention problems given they've always seemed to pay well and not treat people like shit. 

 

67k a year for a store manager after 5 years. 

I believe they're trialling checkout-less stores now? Like those Amazon ones? The article mentions how the larger chains have become much more competitive vs Aldi/Lidl but let's see how that holds up going forward given their (still) large overheads.

[Democorruptcy]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Tonight the government suspended competition law for the oil industry so they can collude on where to send supplies.

Systemic you see.

It seems like this petrol shortage is BP flexing it's muscles warning the governbankment to pull back on some of this climate change bullshit. Looks like it's working but it's a red flag to some car drivers to change to EVs a bit quicker.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Like the madness of bigger and bigger cruise ships being fully booked years out, until covid hit.

That's right, first thing and on a Monday too, drag me and my Carnival holding through the mud...

13 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I bet Aldi and lidl have no staff retention problems given they've always seemed to pay well and not treat people like shit. 

 

67k a year for a store manager after 5 years. 

Both private companies, I wonder if relevant.  No City lizards and cigar smoking beach bums to worry about?

[ThoughtCriminal]

5 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

I believe they're trialling checkout-less stores now? Like those Amazon ones? The article mentions how the larger chains have become much more competitive vs Aldi/Lidl but let's see how that holds up going forward given their (still) large overheads.

Ive always believed its everyones duty to refuse to use self serve checkouts. 

 

When they ask if id like to use one they get the same answer as when they asked if i had a mask: "No". 

[spygirl]

22 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

"We actually employ more of our drivers directly than a majority of the market and on leading terms and conditions and finally a lot of what we source is British and that means our supply chains are a little shorter and easier to control."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58701889

Aldi going to do rather well going forward I'd imagine.

Similar to the gas energy suppliers.

The ones that went bust were buying on the spot, not hedging.

The haulier struggling are the ones whove contracted out, relying on buy excess capacity on the cheap.

Fine, when theres excess capacity. Fucked whrn there isnt.

.

"At the moment, we're well set, but I have to say we're never complacent," said Mr Hurley. "We're always recruiting, always have done and that won't change."

[jamtomorrow]

5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

It seems like this petrol shortage is BP flexing it's muscles warning the governbankment to pull back on some of this climate change bullshit. Looks like it's working but it's a red flag to some car drivers to change to EVs a bit quicker.

You could run an EV on diesel-generated electricity and the effective mpg would be in the same ballpark as modern ICE diesels. With no HGV drivers needed to move electrons from the refinery (or well head???).

Suddenly seems not-so-crazy-after-all in an environment where capital is easier to come by than labour.

[kibuc]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Lets face it, the biggest problem with the nhs is.......the NHS. A model so good that nobody copied it. 

 

Europeans think we're pathetic for our obsession with it: "Do Brits think they invented hospitals?" as one mystified Italian put it to me. That Olympics ceremony was a national embarrassment. 

 

Europe uses a mix of private, charities and even local authorities running hospitals. "Socialist" Sweden even charges for GP visits and other procedures. 

 

Only here do we think the government should fund it AND run every aspect. 

 

Anyway, im thread derailing so ill zip it. 

 

 

Healthcare is free of charge in Poland, incuding dentistry.

It's also shit beyond human recognition, including dentistry.

[belfastchild]

40 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

It seems like this petrol shortage is BP flexing it's muscles warning the governbankment to pull back on some of this climate change bullshit. Looks like it's working but it's a red flag to some car drivers to change to EVs a bit quicker.

Anecdotal I know but Ive had two EV drivers contact me in the last week asking if they can come round see my solar/battery setup as electricity prices have gone through the roof here.
They both used to get free charging at work but now have to charge at home and even though they are using the car less the vampire/phantom drain is starting to hurt.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

"We actually employ more of our drivers directly than a majority of the market and on leading terms and conditions and finally a lot of what we source is British and that means our supply chains are a little shorter and easier to control."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58701889

Aldi going to do rather well going forward I'd imagine.

My son had a choice of of going to uni,or a permanent packers job at Aldi through a very good friend of mine who is in charge of the Regional Distribution Centre.I told him to pick Aldi.Hes 22 now and bringing home £1800 a month and looking good for promotion,no debts,investments going up nicely.I asked my mate about how safe the job was.He said "well i can only really promise for the first 30 years because thats where out plan stretches to"

Aldi promote from within.My mate started on a pickers job.Most of the lorry drivers did as well.If they work hard and sick is good etc they will pay to train you in the jobs.

However they are really struggling for staff at the moment picking.They usually employ lots more at this time of year but cant get anyone and are losing loads to Amazon etc.Iv told my mate they will need to increase wages that are already decent.

[HousePriceMania]

The current malaise the country is now in was kicked off by CV19.

Thankfully we have a vaccine for the terrible banker pocket lining disease.

However, 2 people I know, healthy adults are flat out on their backs now, struggling to recover from CV19. 

Both fully vaccinated.

The government seem to be full on re-open mode but things, around us for sure, are much worse than last year.

If you look at the number of people dying then the pattern is quite alarming.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Deaths currently approx 10x this time last year, this is with the vaccine.

The US, less fully vaccinated, showing deaths around double this time last year

Germany similar to the UK

 

 

If this trend continues, you are looking at a peak of 18,000 people dying per day this winter.

Or can this be explained by some pent up demand for the after life ?

Is everyone confident if this continues to worsen world wise this wont cause a 2nd stock market collapse ?

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

5 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

The current malaise the country is now in was kicked off by CV19.

Thankfully we have a vaccine for the terrible banker pocket lining disease.

However, 2 people I know, healthy adults are flat out on their backs now, struggling to recover from CV19. 

Both fully vaccinated.

The government seem to be full on re-open mode but things, around us for sure, are much worse than last year.

If you look at the number of people dying then the pattern is quite alarming.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Deaths currently approx 10x this time last year, this is with the vaccine.

The US, less fully vaccinated, showing deaths around double this time last year

Germany similar to the UK

 

 

If this trend continues, you are looking at a peak of 18,000 people dying per day this winter.

Or can this be explained by some pent up demand for the after life ?

Is everyone confident if this continues to worsen world wise this wont cause a 2nd stock market collapse ?

 

And look at what these excess deaths are from. Cardiovascular, strokes etc. 

 

Hmmmm............. 

[HousePriceMania]

Just now, ThoughtCriminal said:

And look at what these excess deaths are from. Cardiovascular, strokes etc. 

 

Hmmmm............. 

It could just be the backlog of old people who might have died from the flu over the last 2 years, that would explain the surge.

Whatever the reason if the hospitals are full/over flowing, what'll happen ?

It could well be lockdown 3 and a stock market crash.

[invalid]

44 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Anecdotal I know but Ive had two EV drivers contact me in the last week asking if they can come round see my solar/battery setup as electricity prices have gone through the roof here.
They both used to get free charging at work but now have to charge at home and even though they are using the car less the vampire/phantom drain is starting to hurt.

 

Tesla have stopped giving away the 1,000 miles free supercharging for referrals.

EVs certainly getting more expensive to charge. More inflationary pressure on the fundamentals (energy) that will be there for at least a year as people come to the end of fixed tariffs and onto the higher prices. Some will be in for a shock. Ofgem price cap increases next month as well. Some will be seeing an almost doubling of their electric bill.

As for the dino energy, the current mayhem with the petrol and diesel shortages must be adding extra cost onto another energy fundamental. I've heard of people driving long distances just to get fuel, crazy that people are wasting 1/4 of a tank to get a fill up, pure waste. All those sat in queues. All the extra costs for the HGV drivers, over time payments, getting in contract drivers etc.

So simply put, in the UK all energy has just jumped up in price, massively. As that filters through to everything else which takes some time the so called transitionary inflation is certainly looking to be around for a while yet.

Couple of nice graphs from Ofgem: