Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, invalid said:

 

 

It took me far too long to come that realisation, almost a couple of decades.

I'm placing seeds of information that will hopefully help my kids make that realisation far quicker than I did.

There was a time when conscientiousness/pride/work ethic was beneficial for a worker, but not so much these days. Will it return going forward?

 

 

This kind of talk highlights, for me, how long it's been going on.

I, too, am reaching the end of my tether with multiple things. But I'm reminded of watching my wife go through labour three times. The time women want to give up on it is very close to the end.

I'm striving to keep and pass on my own work and attitude ethic but I'll also be encouraging all my kids to invest in things that pay them to hold them.

If I'd been told that 20 years ago, things would be very different now.

I'm grateful to be still at only 41 and understand that. Plenty of time, still.

[JMD]

Dan Oliver podcast and video, very good macro and historical conversation on bubbles. Tends to jump around history a lot and so conversation is bit disjointed, however most here probably familiar with the topics discussed so still easy to follow. But he presents a clear narrative perspective - that we've made the same mistakes time and again throughout history - illustrating so clearly to me that things (again) definitely WONT end differently this time!                                                            https://supplysidepartners.com/dan-oliver-myrmikan-capital/

[DurhamBorn]

WRONG ,we predicted it on here.However our type dont get jobs with them.Leaving school at 16 from a terrible state comp etc.Can someone tell him its going to get even worse from 23 onwards,this is just the first wave.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58697347

Ofgem boss Jonathan Brearley, told the BBC: "No-one could have predicted the kind of gas price rises we have seen.

[Noallegiance]

23 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

WRONG ,we predicted it on here.However our type dont get jobs with them.Leaving school at 16 from a terrible state comp etc.Can someone tell him its going to get even worse from 23 onwards,this is just the first wave.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58697347

Ofgem boss Jonathan Brearley, told the BBC: "No-one could have predicted the kind of gas price rises we have seen.

He doesn't mean it, of course.

What he means is "I didn't see this coming so I'm going to cover myself and say nobody could"

Or

"I knew this was coming but I wanted to keep it quiet so I could position for it then act surprised"

Unqualified or imorral are the only two possibilities with such people these days, I reckon.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, invalid said:

 

 

It took me far too long to come that realisation, almost a couple of decades.

I'm placing seeds of information that will hopefully help my kids make that realisation far quicker than I did.

There was a time when conscientiousness/pride/work ethic was beneficial for a worker, but not so much these days. Will it return going forward?

 

 

Interesting but can you give an example of those seeds of wisdom you are passing down to your children?

[spygirl]

4 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Doubling in 4 years is nuts. 

Again, check the price data.

https://houseprices.io/?q=Yo13

[Innkeeper]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

WRONG ,we predicted it on here.However our type dont get jobs with them.Leaving school at 16 from a terrible state comp etc.Can someone tell him its going to get even worse from 23 onwards,this is just the first wave.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58697347

Ofgem boss Jonathan Brearley, told the BBC: "No-one could have predicted the kind of gas price rises we have seen.

Oh dear, not only could he have consulted Dosbodders, the City was all too aware as well.....

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-city-power-players-making-money-from-the-energy-crisis-z8nbls096

Headline:  The surge in gas prices may have taken consumers by surprise but City moneymen who called it right are reaping the benefits.

[DurhamBorn]

12 minutes ago, PrincessDrac said:

An interesting post regarding BP on another forum.

The volume of shares being bought back on a daily basis has fallen below the steady $30M per day run rate, since the share price broke through 310p. Having talked through a general strategy I expect the mandate to the brokers already gives them discretion, indeed it probably obliges the board not to interfere in the day-to-day execution. The broker is now either struggling to find volume sellers who were only too happy to offload at 300p and 310p last week, and/or the share price has been rising faster than the broker's set daily target. Probably the latter, we know there are funds and trackers seeking to offload for green reasons. If the share price does drop again for whatever reason I suspect the broker will have a few extra busy days. If not the price it executes buying will have to keep rising because it still has the mandate to spend the remaining cash within the alloted time, and that will be a tailwind pushing the share price up even further. Yes, the buyback itself could actually drive the sp, which I am sure is not the intention and is why they are throttling back the daily volumes. Sorry in some ways, we will look back on these early buybacks as being terrific value, if and when the share price rises to its consensus value 350-360p. The fewer shares taken out of circulation the slower the dividend will progress, and as long term investors we are here for the income not the growth aren't we?

£8 share by 2029 minimum including divs.They have green funds selling,but likely they wont get many shares bought back before they rise.I think they will buy back until £4.10-£4.50 then special divs instead.Wont make people rich,but a very nice income ,and massive firepower for hydrogen etc.

[ThoughtCriminal]

27 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Again, check the price data.

https://houseprices.io/?q=Yo13

The first link you shared is wrong then? 

[spygirl]

19 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

The first link you shared is wrong then? 

The first link is for sales searches by Whitby.

It shows selling prices going up but transaction going down.

For whatever insane reason, every brassy trollope in Yorkshire thinks a FHL in whitby us a route to wealth. It's not. It'll be less when the FHL changes come in.

The second link shows sales in yo13, which, roughly, covers the area starting around the flask/pond hill, thru to the northern (nice) end of scarb.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Have i lost my marbles or has the options thread disappeared from the basement? 

[Starsend]

4 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

That last sentence sums it up, the world has a date with destiny around 2030ish. Though I think quality leaders and good policies might go some way to mitigate some of the misery. 

We're fucked then.

Fucking fucked.

Up the bum.

[Hancock]

12 hours ago, Tingles said:

Yawn.  Just.  Fucking.  YAWN.

[ThoughtCriminal]

42 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Without sounding like a cock, we are similar to one of the groups of oddballs that Michael Lewis found for The Big Short. If he doesn't find us after the next big disaster, I fantasise about quoting key thread paragraphs to various officials that I'm bog-washing, such as that head of Ofgem, Hancock, Greta or the head of NEST. "WE knew you bellend *flush* why the f**king hell didn't YOU *long flush*"

In that case i volunteer to be the one that goes and interviews strippers about how many houses they own. 

 

I'll need expenses money from the Dosbods kitty. 

 

About 5 grand should do. 

[Hancock]

19 hours ago, Loki said:

I didn't bother answering it because it's a fucking stupid thing to say.  The only difference between beating inflation and making a quick buck is time, you realise most on here including me are/were in the red with miners?

So does where does the risk of capital loss figure in your equation? 

I have also taken the punt, but im not so up my arse as yourself to deny that its a calculated gamble to make easy money.

You've been investing in mining shares from 2018/19 and are in the red?  

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

I have also taken the punt, but im not so up my arse as yourself to deny that its a calculated gamble to make easy money.

You've been investing in mining shares from 2018/19 and are in the red?  

Fuck off prick.  I was chatting investing over with my folks and God's own truth I said words to the effect of "It won't make me a millionaire but should help me keep up with inflation"

Yes if it makes you feel any better, my 2x mining shares (HOC, NGD) have been in the red for ages.  Have a good old wank about it, it might cheer you up.

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, spygirl said:

NHS has more than enough workers Drs n nurses for tge natives.

The service is stretched because the number of migrants free riding and a good 20%-30% not showing up.

Not saying that this is not the case, but you got figures to support such a statement?

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

Fuck off prick.  I was chatting investing over with my folks and God's own truth I said words to the effect of "It won't make me a millionaire but should help me keep up with inflation"

Yes if it makes you feel any better, my 2x mining shares (HOC, NGD) have been in the red for ages.  Have a good old wank about it, it might cheer you up.

[No One]

What's with the flame war?

[ThoughtCriminal]

Interesting.............. 

[Shamone]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

 

2 minutes ago, No One said:

What's with the flame war?

We’re all friends here.

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, Shamone said:

We’re all friends here.

Apparently not, we're all spivs.

[Phil]

Just now, Loki said:

Apparently not, we're all spivs.

I’ll take spiv all day. Cheers.

[Bobthebuilder]

9 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Interesting.............. 

I would say that has a while to go yet, parabolically, I mean.

[Shamone]

Just now, Loki said:

Apparently not, we're all spivs.

It could be worse. We could be drossers.