Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Castlevania]

9 hours ago, BadAlchemy said:

I don't have it but I am curious too. I recently tried doing some scoring and comparing of various miners and Centamin seemed unusual in that they have very little debt. i.e in 2018... only $60m total liabilities compared to $1300m total assets (I could be completely wrong of course!). Most other miners seem to have higher debt levels.

They have quite a large net cash position on their balance sheet. So they’ve been able to pay decent dividends. The flip side is that due to having no debt and having a profit share agreement with the Egyptian government means that in a gold bull they won’t do as well as many other miners. In addition they only have the one operating mine. 

[subutai80]

Just a heads up that https://www.ii.co.uk/ have commission free trading on international stocks today and tomorrow.

[DoINeedOne]

Vodafone  has agreed to sell a 55% stake in its Egyptian unit to Saudi Telecom for $2.39B.

The two have also reached an agreement on the basis for a long-term partnership which will include use of the Vodafone brand, preferential roaming arrangements, access to Vodafone's central procurement function and a range of other services.

[Bricks & Mortar]

On 27/01/2020 at 20:24, sancho panza said:

Think the Fed response to US recession will be to cut/QE initally as per previous playbook.Give the insiders time to sell up to retail dip buyers/taxpayer./

Moi...cynical?

Decl:that's what we're posioning for.So confirmation bias right there.

If the Fed see's a US recession, I agree, cuts and QE.

I think the question is, when they'll open their eyes.  I think Dollar Milkshake has the potential to keep the US propped up (at least on measures like the DXY and stock markets), while the rest of us pay a visit to Helena Handbarrow.  At least for a while.

I should declare that I think its a little wild.  I've posted Dollar Milkshake links a couple of times, but sorta from a Devil's Advocate point of view.  I'm just thinking it's something to be aware of, in case the DXY doesn't turn and starts climbing instead.

 

[Democorruptcy]

Cineworld Group plc is a United Kingdom-based international cinema chain. The Company operates in approximately nine countries. The Company operates through two segments: UK and Ireland, and Central and Eastern Europe and Israel (CEE & I). The Company has over 9,518 screens in over 790 sites in across 10 countries. It operates in the United Kingdom, Jersey, Ireland, Poland, Israel, Hungary, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Romania and Slovakia.

Also bought Canada's Cineplex for $2.1bn in December.

Will you be going to the cinema if the Corona Virus gets more widespread? Just saying....

[Majorpain]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51266079

Private equity behind Amigo Loans trying to get shot of it to a greater fool.  Can they see the writing on the wall?

[DurhamBorn]

13 hours ago, Errol said:

Quick query - for all those buying K+S:

Are you buying the Xetra listed version (ticker: SDF)?

Yes i am,below,

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/k/k-and-s-ag-npv2

 

[kibuc]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Cineworld Group plc is a United Kingdom-based international cinema chain. The Company operates in approximately nine countries. The Company operates through two segments: UK and Ireland, and Central and Eastern Europe and Israel (CEE & I). The Company has over 9,518 screens in over 790 sites in across 10 countries. It operates in the United Kingdom, Jersey, Ireland, Poland, Israel, Hungary, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Romania and Slovakia.

Also bought Canada's Cineplex for $2.1bn in December.

Will you be going to the cinema if the Corona Virus gets more widespread? Just saying....

"Approximately nine"?

"Over 9518"? Is that 9519?

Also, it lookse like "approximately nine" equals 10.

They have third-graders do their write-ups at HL?

[Castlevania]

29 minutes ago, kibuc said:

"Approximately nine"?

"Over 9518"? Is that 9519?

Also, it lookse like "approximately nine" equals 10.

They have third-graders do their write-ups at HL?

Jersey isn’t a country. So should be nine countries.

[Democorruptcy]

Quote

 

Starbucks has closed half of its outlets in China to protect its staff and support government efforts to contain the coronavirus.

The coffee shop chain warned that the rapidly expanding infection is likely to affect its financial performance.

Starbucks has almost 4,300 outlets in China, making it the company's largest market outside the US.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news

 

My shorting finger is itching for several shares but maybe not on Fed day?

[DurhamBorn]

Problem i have with Cineworld is the debt.Im not really sure how many of the cinemas they actually own and how many are leased.I have no problem if they are all leased,but if they are a company like that should then have net cash.Most companies that consolidate an industry do very well over time,and Cineworld might as well.Being the biggest in that game means you can squeeze out the competition locally by running some of your portfolio at a loss.However if most of the cinemas are lease hold then the massive debts are a big problem in a business like that.

I pay £2.50 to go to the local Vue and buy nothing in there,but the younger people all seem to be coming in with two foot tall cokes and snacks.I see a good future for the industry,but that debt is a big worry.If i was a shareholder id rather they cut the divi in half and de-leveraged as quick as they can before they cant.

[reformed nice guy]

Stagecoach was downgraded by HSBC analysts today, saying that they dont rate its chances going forward.

PE is now 7ish, shares down >5% today. Another step on my ladder.

I had a deeper dive into them. They were quick to roll out contactless payment, harvest subsidies for electric buses and are having a punt on autonomous buses.

https://www.stagecoach.com/media/news-releases/2019/2019-05-20.aspx

https://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/self-driving-stagecoach-bus-makes-debut-scottish-run-ahead-of-forth-road-bridge-route-1-5045159

[Democorruptcy]

29 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Stagecoach was downgraded by HSBC analysts today, saying that they dont rate its chances going forward.

PE is now 7ish, shares down >5% today. Another step on my ladder.

I had a deeper dive into them. They were quick to roll out contactless payment, harvest subsidies for electric buses and are having a punt on autonomous buses.

https://www.stagecoach.com/media/news-releases/2019/2019-05-20.aspx

https://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/self-driving-stagecoach-bus-makes-debut-scottish-run-ahead-of-forth-road-bridge-route-1-5045159

You might get another ladder hit IF we get corona virus cases in the UK? The clue is in the name, public transport.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

Stagecoach was downgraded by HSBC analysts today, saying that they dont rate its chances going forward.

PE is now 7ish, shares down >5% today. Another step on my ladder.

I had a deeper dive into them. They were quick to roll out contactless payment, harvest subsidies for electric buses and are having a punt on autonomous buses.

https://www.stagecoach.com/media/news-releases/2019/2019-05-20.aspx

https://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/self-driving-stagecoach-bus-makes-debut-scottish-run-ahead-of-forth-road-bridge-route-1-5045159

See what HSBC are saying when oil hits $200 in the next cycle and the transports are hedged at $50.Always amazes me how they look at companies and sectors but never where we are in a cycle.Bus sector is and will be tough.Manchester might go back to a different model etc.However there is massive operational gearing in these companies and it only take fare increases to and use to improve and depreciation to fall and free cash shoots higher.Of course they could get whacked down more yet along the way.

I actually top sliced Stagecoach at £1.63 when they jumped after the election and bought some BP with the money. (a ladder i had at about £1.19),and have ladders back in place to top back up at £1.28,but scratched it and picked up at £1.32 because i wanted to go and do some gardening.

[Barnsey]

What could possibly go wrong?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

49 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

What could possibly go wrong?

Can't lose on pwopatee.

Hope you've got 15 just like me. 

Sit back and watch the poor bring oppressed at your leisure 

[Barnsey]

The rules have changed, danger ahead!

[leonardratso]

heather schlong

[Agent ZigZag]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

The rules have changed, danger ahead!

Maybe so lets play the game as it is in view of whats on the talking table. Hedge your bets with continued low interest rates then  buy a house up north. 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

The rules have changed, danger ahead!

I think the rules changed over a decade ago.

[Majorpain]

9 hours ago, Barnsey said:

The rules have changed, danger ahead!

Stage set for Powell to go "not me guv, i tried" when the inevitable happens?

[Barnsey]

Alongside Corona, we’ve got some big profit drops this morning from the likes of Shell and Unilever, lots of UST yield curve inversions again too, not good!

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Alongside Corona, we’ve got some big profit drops this morning from the likes of Shell and Unilever, lots of UST yield curve inversions again too, not good!

Yesterday, I saw the bit about Huawei getting part of 5G but never thought about how much that might cost BT, they say £500m over 5 years. https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/b/bt-group-plc-ordinary-5p/share-news

British jobs for British people!

Re Shell, I posted I'd sold all mine on 30th Sept and it's just hit -15% since then. I can't bring myself to buy back in yet with this coronavirus scare.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

Yesterday, I saw the bit about Huawei getting part of 5G but never thought about how much that might cost BT, they say £500m over 5 years. https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/b/bt-group-plc-ordinary-5p/share-news

British jobs for British people!

Re Shell, I posted I'd sold all mine on 30th Sept and it's just hit -15% since then. I can't bring myself to buy back in yet with this coronavirus scare.

Iv got ladders set based on my $43 from $60 oil target.IF oil got close to $43 i have ShellB ladder set £17.20 (two before that though).Its very tricky as half way along the road map in the right direction has gone a bit too fast and we might get a turn.Lets hope not.

BTs results were fine today,likely they will cut the divi by 25% though unless free cash starts to creep higher.Iv got a lot of ladders in telcos to fill and most are very close to the next one now so hope to get them Telia keeps just bouncing above.The sector should be able to increase earnings faster than inflation once the next cycle gets under way.They might go lower before that though.

Lots of stocks are now in my bottoming range of PEs in the 6 to 9 areas.Im very interested to see how things play out.Will we see another 30% off already cheap value type stocks,or will they go up once the mega cap tech stocks crack?.Time will tell.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

28 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv got ladders set based on my $43 from $60 oil target.IF oil got close to $43 i have ShellB ladder set £17.20 (two before that though).Its very tricky as half way along the road map in the right direction has gone a bit too fast and we might get a turn.Lets hope not.

BTs results were fine today,likely they will cut the divi by 25% though unless free cash starts to creep higher.Iv got a lot of ladders in telcos to fill and most are very close to the next one now so hope to get them Telia keeps just bouncing above.The sector should be able to increase earnings faster than inflation once the next cycle gets under way.They might go lower before that though.

Lots of stocks are now in my bottoming range of PEs in the 6 to 9 areas.Im very interested to see how things play out.Will we see another 30% off already cheap value type stocks,or will they go up once the mega cap tech stocks crack?.Time will tell.

By share price down 5%