Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Democorruptcy]

My first dabble in shares was free money in the 80's. A work scheme where you could save from £25 up to £100 a month for 5 years. At end you decided if you wanted the money back plus 6% interest added each year, or 20% adding to the cash to buy shares at 90% of the price when you entered the scheme 5 years before. A free bet! 

[JMD]

17 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I've often wondered how people on here got into stocks.WIth me it was my Grandad.DB that bloke at his work etc.Takes a lot of time to educate people on markets.

Was always into shares and finance. But never been that successful. However, my interest was really piqued when I became aware of such things as cycles and macro investing. I am fascinated by how these play out, run along side the social changes happening/about to happen (a la Strauss-Howe, etc). Very much here to learn, hence my frequent basic questions, but to my delight questions are regularly and graciously and generously answered by the experts here - thanks all. 

[Bricks & Mortar]

I became interested in shares and finance through O-grade economics.  I still remember my teachers fondly, and it was the subject I was best at, probably just because I liked it.

Although I never had any money to invest, I followed up by reading and following economic developments in the years since.  Had some Tesco shares when I worked there in the 90's.  Came to this thread expecting just to read, but ended up investing a windfall I got last year.

With many thanks to DB and all contributors.

[DoINeedOne]

 

[Bobthebuilder]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

If its Guyana, no brainer. 8bn of sone of the most profitable barrels out there, and counting. Will be a cash machine for years. All in one block, what an unbelievable piece of business, and full credit to them.

Hi Cattle Prod, Is that XOM you are talking about?

[Ma2]

Interesting article on the proposals some UK councils (and cities abroad) already have around banning private vehicles from towns. Assume this will include electric/hydrogen powered vehicles too  

https://www.jwtintelligence.com/2020/01/carless-cities/?mc_cid=6410c84af9&mc_eid=653edaa5c2

fits in nicely with public transport plays already mentioned on here by @durhamborn and others. 

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

 

And fucks of the flying variety are not given by the markets!

[Castlevania]

19 hours ago, sancho panza said:

If you don't mind me asking CV,did your Dad get you into stocks?

Yeah. He used to come home from work and get me to look up the stock prices on Ceefax for him. Then he’d get really annoyed if his stocks were down.

[nirvana]

ahem did somebody say Gilead Sciences? +5.5% today.......I didn't buy any cos as a non-yankie you need to fill out one of those forms.....

Anyway I cleared out the rest of the crap and I feel better for it

The markets are holding up so far.....they decided to fck the £ today instead, the ECB maybe teaching dem der naughty Brexiters lol

And that I'm afraid is the problem with 'investing', you never know who is on the opposite side of your trade.......and that's another conundrum......the investing vs trading vs speculating arguement.....

There is no doubt @DurhamBorn is a superb investor.......the problem is when the speculators are in control and you're on the wrong side of a synthetic CDO

Anyway I'm waffling so I'm off to do some speculating, that suits my mad personality more 

Watch this I think it sums up the markets nowadays.....and if you haven't watched The Big Short it's fantastic......jenga, jenga, jenga 

Good luck to all the players and hope you all get rich before you die!!! Especially if it's at the expense of a banker/hedge fund manager's bonus 

 

[nirvana]

8 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

And fucks of the flying variety are not given by the markets!

That's why it pays to 'speculate' on down moves as well as ups.......3% is a massive daily move....

How many Teslas and Porsches so you think where won and lost on the back of that?

Chapeau!

[nirvana]

20 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

Interesting article on the proposals some UK councils (and cities abroad) already have around banning private vehicles from towns. Assume this will include electric/hydrogen powered vehicles too  

https://www.jwtintelligence.com/2020/01/carless-cities/?mc_cid=6410c84af9&mc_eid=653edaa5c2

fits in nicely with public transport plays already mentioned on here by @durhamborn and others. 

I'm also very interested in Hydrogen and agree it will be big.....particularly mainland Europe, the French and the Krauts have already got hydrogen pushbikes, check out Pragma Industries....

They're also sorting out the infrastructure, unlike the Brits.....

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I'm starting to see MSM pieces on that, right on cue, middle of Q1. You could see it in the data 9 months ago, and I was asking myself "what sm I missing here?". I've been staggered at the 'analysts' who ignored this, and just ran with the crowd. Thanks to this thread and @DurhamBorn I've learned something about leads and lags, so held my conviction.

 I'm hearing rumours of some shale companies considering "blowing down" and investing the priceeds in conventional. Basically, opening the taps, and running. Wrecks your reservoir pressure and thus ultimate recovery. A short term sugar high, good luck with that.

If it goes to 43 ish, it has to be a secular bottom. I can't see anything else in the way, liquidity wise or fundamental. 

Re. above on Shell, I bought more last week (+ around 30%) with the proceeds of a more volatile oil stock. I'll keep them for a very long time.

I had drinks with a BP friend last week, and the new CEO Bernard Looney is about to lay out a new strategy to staff, worldwide townhalls etc. They have no idea what it is, but I suspect gas will be a big part of it. I wonder will there be a hydrogen wildcard in there...

You input into this thread is invaluable Cattle Prod and will be crucial as the cycle unfolds,putting on the ground info on top of the macro work..Im really pleased that i have been able to show people how lags work in the economy.There are very few people these days who do that kind of work.My friend says 99% of the people who look at the numbers get it wrong because they simply look at the headline and think they understand it.He called them macro tourists.Standing on a beach looking at the sea coming in they think they know it,but they dont understand the currents,the underwater rocks etc.

I have no doubts about the returns in oil during the next cycle.Im just very pleased my road map has proved correct as im picking up the stocks as the price falls.

The big calls on the $,gold and oil on this thread have not been better anywhere on the market.

Cross market work says the contrarian position on clean energy is hydrogen not battery.If so big oil will control it.The fact the market is 100% ignoring this is really interesting me.Im actually leaning my oil/energy buys to the ones i think could get a lead in hydrogen.Lets see if BP mention it,or if they are happy to start investing,but keep it quiet.

 

[Loki]

19 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I've often wondered how people on here got into stocks

A reluctant acknowledgement to myself that working hard isn't enough, and the incredible good fortune to find@DurhamBorn's ideas.  

[Agent ZigZag]

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

 

Unable at the moment to buy any stocks in this area until new tax year for my isa and waiting on next pension transfer into my SIPP

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

 

RDSB has fallen but it is 50% up on the price as recent as 2016 and just about the same price as it was in 2008 when oil was just about $100 more expensive. I suppose that's QE and plunge protection teams for you.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/r/royal-dutch-shell-plc-b-shares-eur0.07/share-charts

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000s_energy_crisis#/media/File:Price_of_oil_(2003-2008).png

[Noallegiance]

And then there's:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/shipping-bellwether-hits-all-time-low-11580744101

Corona getting the blame for everything today!

Funny. Corona appeared at the end of December. BDI started tumbling start of Q4.

And not saying correlation = causation in either direction, but the Fed balance sheet explosion started Sept 4. I think...... Yes........ Yes that was down to corona, too...

[Loki]

12 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

And then there's:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/shipping-bellwether-hits-all-time-low-11580744101

Corona getting the blame for everything today!

Funny. Corona appeared at the end of December. BDI started tumbling start of Q4.

And not saying correlation = causation in either direction, but the Fed balance sheet explosion started Sept 4. I think...... Yes........ Yes that was down to corona, too...

Never let a crisis go to waste!

[Popuplights]

6 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

If its Guyana, no brainer. 8bn of sone of the most profitable barrels out there, and counting. Will be a cash machine for years. All in one block, what an unbelievable piece of business, and full credit to them.

Yes. I'm at XOM. Was Listening to the earnings call on Friday. We are fucking laughing with that one. It's the only thing making money. Trying to get on that project myself!!

 

[Barnsey]

Perfect current sentiment tweet regarding Tesla vs Exxon 

 

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

And not saying correlation = causation in either direction, but the Fed balance sheet explosion started Sept 4. I think...... Yes........ Yes that was down to corona, too...

Pretty sure the balance sheet wasn't caused by Dr Zhou and his dirty virus 

Just the fed doing what the fed does best, supporting their banker mates with more QE but this time you weren't allowed to call it QE......I think they were OMTs or overnight money transactions or whatever...

only the odd $75 billion every now and again....'The Fed hasn’t intervened like this since 2008, which may be signaling that the wheels are finally coming off'

But they keep turning and giving the Vs to the peasant scum....

40 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

Yes. I'm at XOM. Was Listening to the earnings call on Friday. We are fucking laughing with that one. It's the only thing making money. Trying to get on that project myself!!

 

hey Mr Engineer, is there any truth in the rumour that fracking is causing radioactive wastewater?

[Barnsey]

 

[Barnsey]

One last one for tonight 

 

[Loki]

That's pretty significant isn't it

[Popuplights]

1 hour ago, confused said:

hey Mr Engineer, is there any truth in the rumour that fracking is causing radioactive wastewater?

Sorry, not my area. I'm an electrical power systems engineer. 

[Bear Hug]

I've been following https://twitter.com/DaveHcontrarian/with_replies?lang=en for a while.  He mentioned $10 oil before but now gave some more specific timeframes:

Quote

Oil may wait until after the melt-up to trade down to $40 & below. Could rally from here before heading lower. Never a straight line. By the way, oil was at $44 just a year ago.

Quote

I can't call the next week or two. Anything can happen in that short a span of time. But as I've said often it's headed for $40 & ultimately headed for $10 in the bust.

Quote

I'm forecasting $10 oil in the bust and $300+ by the late 2020's. Won't be at $10 very long but can get there.

Quote

Renewables can only supply a small fraction of our needs. Oil is going nowhere. It's current slump is due to the slowing global economy not renewables.

Apologies, these are not in correct order but are from the last few days.  I have no idea whether predicted shale output falls are reflected in his views or not.