Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Jesus Wept]

19 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im holding Vodafone,Telefonic,BT and Telia in that order at the moment.Im wanting to add a couple more,but cant decide on who.Im trying to stick to Europe as i think there is a lot of potential for IOT and edge of network clouds etc and consolidation/capex savings.I have been looking at America Movil though and would like another couple of options.

 

19 hours ago, Vendetta said:

Do you think the Telefonica move (if comes off)  will negatively impact Vodaphone?

 

18 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes,and BT,they will have a converged service like BT has.However i expect all of them to end up in the same place in time and all of them to save Capex.Id want to see the structure of the deal though.

I have a sneaking suspicion Vodaphone might try to ‘get back into bed’ with Liberty Global and thwart Telefonica / O2’s attempted tie up with Virgin. 

What do you think @DurhamBorn? It’s certainly a possibility. They had previous attempts and are linked in other ways with previous deals - Netherlands etc...

Possibly more to come on this story.....

 

 

 

[Loki]

Anyone else noticing increasing amounts of commentary online about this being 'it' for the economic system?

I assume reports of the dollars demise are greatly exaggerated? For now anyway. 

[Loki]

Interesting page from the 'slide packs' accompanying the timeless series on macrovoices.  Never seen this referenced anywhere before. 

What I don't know is if they have identified this event, or a further one to come. (Series recorded 2017)

[Loki]

 

[Loki]

Infrastructure spending begins?

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-signs-executive-order-shielding-nations-power-grid-attack

[nirvana]

4 hours ago, spygirl said:

That's bullshit.

And probably anti semitic.

 

Read this you dumb ponce 
https://concisepolitics.com/2016/08/19/jewish-bolsheviks-mass-murdered-66-million-mostly-christians-in-russia/
the bolsheviks killed around 66 million people - 'mainly christians'
They were financed by Yankee bankers; mainly a guy called Jacob Schiff - google his background

(Oh he lied, oooh he's twistin' my melon man)
He's gonna step on you again, he's gonna step on you....
Happy Mondays

[nirvana]

OK this is a serious issue!

Monthly review........how much did the FED print in April? Where did it go?

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Vendetta said:

 

 

I have a sneaking suspicion Vodaphone might try to ‘get back into bed’ with Liberty Global and thwart Telefonica / O2’s attempted tie up with Virgin. 

What do you think @DurhamBorn? It’s certainly a possibility. They had previous attempts and are linked in other ways with previous deals - Netherlands etc...

Possibly more to come on this story.....

 

 

 

Yes there might be a lot more to this.The one left behind will be in a poor position.5G is much easier and more profitable if you own a fixed network.

[Agent ZigZag]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

 

As long as gold runs high and above inflation and there are no restrictions on holding and selling it then all of the above is fine by me

[Loki]

@DurhamBorn this looks like a bit of you 

2 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

As long as gold runs high and above inflation and there are no restrictions on holding and selling it then all of the above is fine by me

I guess that all depends on what TPTP will be doing...bit like land/property being a sure thing over here

[sancho panza]

20 hours ago, JMD said:

But I definitely do blame them. I find it scarry to see scientists morphing into politicians and that was the point of my post. Yes the journalists questions are mostly awful or boring, but they to are also political creatures, so it's all more than a little incestruous. They did however have an editor from New Scientist on last week but he hasn't been back since. 'Propaganda theatre' at a time of war (in this case fighting a virus) I get it, it happens and is to be expected, I just don't want technocratic scientists front and centre that's all. Oh and the amateur looking graphs could be smartened up, I mean who plots 4 shades of blue lines on same graph? '...above the light blue line you see the grey-blue line...', is actual quote, but I'll stop now as I'm merely ranting now!

Both of you,don't read the following well written critique of the lcok down.Toby Young(whom I've vaguely heard of).It's derpessing how bumbling our govt has been.The truth will come out and the sunlgiht wont be kind to our govt

But I think history will reserve a place in hell for Neil Ferguson and his Imperial assesment prediucting 500,000 deaths

https://lockdownsceptics.org/2020/05/02/latest-news-18/

As the lockdown eases and we survey the economic wreckage, more and more people will start asking whether the cure was worse than the disease. And the evidence that the more modest social distancing measures put in place by the Government on March 16th were sufficient to “flatten the curve” continues to mount. A reader has sent me this interesting graph showing the use of mass transport in London, Birmingham and Manchester declining rapidly before the lockdown was imposed:

This is just one data point, but if you want to read a full survey of the evidence that lockdowns don’t work I recommend this paper by Thomas Meunier entitled ‘Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic‘. Here’s what the abstract says:

This phenomenological study assesses the impacts of full lockdown strategies applied in Italy, France, Spain and United Kingdom, on the slowdown of the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak. Comparing the trajectory of the epidemic before and after the lockdown, we find no evidence of any discontinuity in the growth rate, doubling time, and reproduction number trends. Extrapolating pre-lockdown growth rate trends, we provide estimates of the death toll in the absence of any lockdown policies, and show that these strategies might not have saved any life in western Europe. We also show that neighboring countries applying less restrictive social distancing measures (as opposed to police-enforced home containment) experience a very similar time evolution of the epidemic.

 

12 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Technocratic scientists, sigh.

I have to agree with what you're saying. I completely ignore them and get my news directly on twitter from individuals who are working scientists, where I can.

In my field of science, a small number of active, working at the coalface scientists drift into government from time to time. They are always aversge to poor in skill who tend to bullshit. The best scientists don't end up in government. They mostly don't end up in academia either (no offence to anyone here, it's just my experience), except for the few who have altruistic motives.

I don't know if this is the case in epidemiology, but I'm not impressed. I would only trust a government advisor who has been at the coalface of their field for a long time, and are just doing a short stint in government to 'give back' or whatever.

I'm not even sure Neil Fergusons 'famous 'paper has even been released for peer review.........................which tells a story of it's own if true.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

Anyone else noticing increasing amounts of commentary online about this being 'it' for the economic system?

I assume reports of the dollars demise are greatly exaggerated? For now anyway. 

We are in the end game.  We were before CV.  People will blame CV, as they do, looking for simplistic explanations, but this was already underway.  I don't know what will happen and what it will look like other than being poorer and less free.  I've gone off the current financial system anyway.  Maybe partly age but also probably front running something in my waters.  I'm usually good at connecting the dots to form the trend and they are out there, plain to see.  Highly nuanced but there.  And I can smell an ambush!  Things usually take longer than I think (witness my initial move off grid all those years ago) but CV must have sped things up.  Bluntly, CV is a gift for those who were previously nudging us to somewhere not so nice.  Time for us all to get resilient financially and in other ways.  CV was boot camp for what's coming.

PS:  Ha, I too have the drink test and would like to share a few with many here.  TBF, probably all on the basis if you hang out here you're already a person of interest! 

PPS:  I hold ITV for income and was thinking of selling on the basis of whether they will still be producing content in a CV world.  Maybe I'll hold on for now.   Anyways, it seemed a lot of stuff was going CGI anyways, although a computer image eating a cockroach probably isn't the same (for those who need that sort of thing).

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

CV was boot camp for what's coming.

I agree.  What do you reckon, end of the year in line with this thread and other sources before things come to a head?  It's definitely brought things forward.  Funnily enough, as I was typing this - part four of the 2017 (Pre COVID) timeless series MP3 just said

"I'm going to defer  to Neil Howes work on long wave business cycles.  I think the dollar's loss of hegemony is the big event of the current fourth turning cycle. So if I invoke the lessons of prior fourth turnings this should all be over by 2030, the worst of the crisis will probably come between 2022 and 2028, and that would be my guess as to when things get really ugly for the US Government as it realises it can no longer get away with spending beyond its means thanks to exorbitant privilege"

He thinks the future currency may be a state sponsored crypto 

[Harley]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

What do you reckon, end of the year in line with this thread and other sources before things come to a head? 

No idea what when but defo starts soon  this year.  Else the momentum is lost.  

[sleepwello'nights]

7 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

 

One thought that it has prompted (and I know this sounds callous) is that through their Covid19 management approach the UK government has missed an opportunity to make the economy better...I.e. GDP is increased through private savings (not government expenditure/fiscal stimulus), and the majority of the publics savings is held/tied-up in assets held by the elderly, the very ones the policy is `saving/protecting` at the financial cost to others. 

Most of the public's savings held/tied-up in assets held by the elderly would have been returned to the economy with natural deaths in  the next few years anyway.  

[sleepwello'nights]

6 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

 

The youth in the UK have never been poorer cos they've been robbed by Thatcherites! Robbed by boomer pensioners! And robbed by the state by being forced to pay tens of thousands of £sss for their education!

I grew up in a council house in the North east, I went on to get a FREE UNIVERSITY DEGREE!  

Tell me how I robbed you? I'm a boomer!

I grew up in a council house and I didn't get a FREE UNIVERSITY DEGREE! 

Admittedly the council house I grew up in wasn't in the North East, could explain why I'm not an arrogant wanker socialist who works on a building site and thinks he's not rich because its someone elses fault!

[Loki]

Just now, sleepwello'nights said:

works on a building site

No that's me, I don't think we have an issue 

[Harley]

25 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Toby Young(whom I've vaguely heard of).

Terrible!  Essential reading.  Anti woke. Peter Hitchens another.  They get (and have previously had) some quiet nasty push back from "them".  Right or not, partially or in full, surely entitled to express an opinion (although FFS there was even a debate on the radio this week about that!).

PS:  I shall publish a technical chart next week for my off topic sin!

[sancho panza]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

People forget about that rubber band list of goldies.Harmony at $1.53,Eldorado the old dog that then barked and barked,Sibanye,Yamana etc.

Positioning in oil might see 30% drawdowns,but people should already of made massive amounts of capital on the goldies.The bond calls delivered 30%+ while the market saw massive falls.

Markets arent linear,and you need to let cycles play out.I agree of course on trying to buy as low as possible,but i see the big risk going forward not being positioned.

The main worry i have is how the shareholder seems to be being pushed to the back of the line in lots of ways.Every time i hear some highly paid state employed stooge mention fat cat CEOs and shareholders in the same way is very worrying.The narrative that shareholders should "suffer".Thats what you get when everyone is sucking at the tit of government.Even more reason to de-complex investments because at least that way you capture the value.

 

I always classify portfolio weightings by what we put in roughly based on what we're collectively worth in terms of savings Aripl 5th.Thus I say our goldies are 20% but it's fair to say they're a chunk higher.All those stocks we talked about on here a couple of years back,Barrick $15,Sibanye $2.60,GFI $3,HMY $1.60,kinros $3 etc.We've got some stinkers but they're outweighed by the ones that are up.I tend not to calculate the growth as it'll tempt me to sell them, and I think that'd be rasjh gvien what we're facing in terms of rpinting.

 

I think there's a real balance between getting exposure at too hgih a price and waiting for the bottom and missing it.Laddering -something I didn't really do until this thread taught me the errors of my ways -tkaes away that risk and really works if you set your stall out for your waorst case scenario and anything better is a bonus

[sancho panza]

23 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im holding Vodafone,Telefonic,BT and Telia in that order at the moment.Im wanting to add a couple more,but cant decide on who.Im trying to stick to Europe as i think there is a lot of potential for IOT and edge of network clouds etc and consolidation/capex savings.I have been looking at America Movil though and would like another couple of options.

I k now it's not EU but I'll be looking to use oil divis to buy Telstra and SIngtel.

[sleepwello'nights]

4 minutes ago, Loki said:

No that's me, I don't think we have an issue 

Sorry I'm watching a series on the Russian mafia on Netflix whilst skimming this thread and I mixed up two posts.

I do get pissed off when I'm blamed for the ills of the UK.

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Sorry I'm watching a series on the Russian mafia on Netflix whilst skimming this thread and I mixed up two posts.

I do get pissed off when I'm blamed for the ills of the UK.

Any good hints for when the USSK collapses?

Anyone still buying physical PMs, or just me? 

[sleepwello'nights]

Just now, Loki said:

Any good hints for when the USSK collapses?

Anyone still buying physical PMs, or just me? 

I got a call from Baird earlier this week, the coins I ordered are on their way. 

[sancho panza]

31 minutes ago, Harley said:

We are in the end game.  We were before CV.  People will blame CV, as they do, looking for simplistic explanations, but this was already underway.  I don't know what will happen and what it will look like other than being poorer and less free.  I've gone off the current financial system anyway.  Maybe partly age but also probably front running something in my waters.  I'm usually good at connecting the dots to form the trend and they are out there, plain to see.  Highly nuanced but there.  And I can smell an ambush!  Things usually take longer than I think (witness my initial move off grid all those years ago) but CV must have sped things up.  Bluntly, CV is a gift for those who were previously nudging us to somewhere not so nice.  Time for us all to get resilient financially and in other ways.  CV was boot camp for what's coming.

 

Lot of truths in there Harley.Lot of truths.CV has indeed sped up some huge chenges for teh world order and the societies within it.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I got a call from Baird earlier this week, the coins I ordered are on their way. 

Nice! Gold or silver?

Mostly silver Brittanias for me.  A few (total) gold 1/10, 1/4 and 1/2 sovs/brits  just as gold is so much smaller