Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[spygirl]

Some LA pensions appear to be making pension investments in the LA  area.

Truely insane.

The LA and Pols cannot accept the returns a professionally managed pension fund will get - not enough to pay the hordes of LA workers.

So they go down these isnane, Ponzi-esque investments, in local high rises etc.

 

[spygirl]

44 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

average employer contribution is 19%

 

 

Years ago, before 2007, I was reading an article on the BoE pension scheme.

Merv was in charge.

To avoid risk and compromise it only invested in index linked gilts.

To meet the projected returns andprojecte life exptectancy, they had to invest 50% of the salary i.e.

If BoE employee earned 100k, then buy 50k of index links Gilts. Every year.

That is how expensive index linked, DB public sector pensions are..

Although they cant differ on sexes/gender/whatever,  the most expensive publlic sector jobs are female coppers and firemen.

The rate at which they accrue pension benefits and the extra (5-10) years women live is ruinous.

 

 

 

 

[janch]

5 hours ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Of course they are, I just took profits on GDX... it will fly now

I just did the same with a very junior goldie (AAU) which hadn't been doing anything much so it's bound to rocket now

[spygirl]

35 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Each index was set at 100 for the month of its pre-Global-Financial-Crisis peak in 2007. According to Green Street, prices are tracked in local currency. The indices capture the prices at which commercial real estate transactions are currently being negotiated and contracted, which makes the index very timely.

Much like the retail sector of commercial real estate, the office sector also faces new structural challenges going forward as work-from-home strategies have been successfully rolled out during the pandemic, and companies and service providers now see that it is a functional and manageable alternative with high productivity for many jobs. This too is playing out worldwide. And this – much like the acceleration of ecommerce – is one of many structural shifts coming out of this crisis.

Up til the internet (mid 2000s) a retailer had to suck up the commercial eases. or buy their own real estate.

Since the internet, a retailer has other options. The overhead of multiple  physical shops - and the staff - is huge when compared to a big shed of the M1.

Of course, few retailers got their head round it, being too tied into real estate, even thought most had, gormlessly, sold off their retail holdings. Pointless when you are also signing 10+ year leases.

Office space has hit the same thing.

Companies have been getting smaller for years. I cant think of any large town that does not have several empty HQs/large offices.

With much better n cheaper broadband and software, doing a lot of work types from home is now a goer.

It wasnt, even back in the mid 00s. From memory I only had ~500kbits broadband. Which was OK for a few SSH connections..

Now Im up to stupid bits - 30Mbps. I can have video conferences..

 

 

[Agent ZigZag]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Same here im not selling any of them and very pleased with entry points.The only question is over the dividend,its paid as shares that they then re-buy on the market,so no dilution and im deciding if to simply let the shares compound in  Repsol,or sell them and keep the holding size the same.I dont usually ever let divis compound in the same company so i havent decided yet.I might let them compound below 11 ,are you letting them compound up Agent?

Yes I will let them compound. As what else will I do that is better if I do sell. That is the beauty of shares especially when I am not using them at the moment for an income but to let them compound and mature. I will approach the dividend question later on when I do require the income

[DurhamBorn]

Really good results from Mosaic,looks like potash doesnt care much about people taking a jolly across the Atlantic on a Virgin jet.8 bucks to 80 i hope by 28.

Iv been busy on the PM sector the last few days and think silver is close to breaking out.Iv bought right across the silver mining sector just after the markets opened today and finally got my holdings back to where i wanted.Silver looks good for $21+ this year.

Look at the FTSE today and all the stocks the MSM has been tipping to buy for "the recovery" that are mainly dis-inflation loving are falling including the housebuilders.The risers are mainly the areas the MSM say should be avoided at all costs and reflation loving.

US government is borrowing $3 trillion,so as the Fed has QEd that amount and more it looks like a 100% monetize the fiscal responce,so even more inflationary than expected.

Its ready great in the UK watching all the disinflation sectors get destroyed and the government looking on like a rabbit in headlights.They based their whole welfare system etc on those sectors and they are being wiped.Virgin and BA announcing they are pulling out of Gatwick is huge.They could be simply pushing for government money and reverse that choice,but huge changes already from this cycle inflection.

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Really good results from Mosaic,looks like potash doesnt care much about people taking a jolly across the Atlantic on a Virgin jet.8 bucks to 80 i hope by 28.

 

 

Good tip DB.  I do have £1k in them thanks to you.

Not as good as the MOS:LSE tho but I'll take it. 

 

[leonardratso]

hmm wonder if nutrien was part of baglar, think it was, need to check there.

[Bricormortis]

Oilies on a ripper today.

Repsol ( near cut in half from last May ) up over 14% today

 

[Cosmic]

2 hours ago, janch said:

I just did the same with a very junior goldie (AAU) which hadn't been doing anything much so it's bound to rocket now

This was from my holdings purchased in 2018, up a nice 70% overall (and sick I didn't buy a wedge more in March... but I was already overweight). GDXJ needs to do some catchup!

[Majorpain]

Oh my, EU moving swiftly to lock Germany down from any escape.  Payback for all those years of cheap Euro exports and sucking the blood from the south is inbound.

Thought my idea that the UK wouldn't leave the EU before it dissolved had zero chance of happening, might be back on!

[Agent ZigZag]

17 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

It does not bode well, I'm pretty shocked at the compliance. 

Take away the government benefits teat and the huge army of those working for the state and I am sure we will all be shocked at the level non-compliance.  There is a swarm of people that have not been affected in monetary terms by this lock down and so they do not give a flying XXXX. Private sector please meet public sector

[The Idiocrat]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Really good results from Mosaic,looks like potash doesnt care much about people taking a jolly across the Atlantic on a Virgin jet.8 bucks to 80 i hope by 28.

Iv been busy on the PM sector the last few days and think silver is close to breaking out.Iv bought right across the silver mining sector just after the markets opened today and finally got my holdings back to where i wanted.Silver looks good for $21+ this year.

DB, would you mind listing a few of the silver miners please? I've got all my silver investments in Wisdom Tree Physical Silver (PHAG) so could probably do with diversifying a good bit. TIA (and of course I'll do my own research but your thoughts appreciated).

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, The Idiocrat said:

DB, would you mind listing a few of the silver miners please? I've got all my silver investments in Wisdom Tree Physical Silver (PHAG) so could probably do with diversifying a good bit. TIA (and of course I'll do my own research but your thoughts appreciated).

Iv got Wisdom Tree as well.Endeavour Silver,Fortuna Silver Mines,Great Panther Mining,International Tower Hill Mines,Coeur Mining,BUENAVENTURA-ADR ,

[The Idiocrat]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv got Wisdom Tree as well.Endeavour Silver,Fortuna Silver Mines,Great Panther Mining,International Tower Hill Mines,Coeur Mining,BUENAVENTURA-ADR ,

Awesome, thank you, off to do some reading.

[King Penda]

55 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Take away the government benefits teat and the huge army of those working for the state and I am sure we will all be shocked at the level non-compliance.  There is a swarm of people that have not been affected in monetary terms by this lock down and so they do not give a flying XXXX. Private sector please meet public sector

True but can they prize them off the teat 

[Shamone]

19 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I think there's some real value if you can get a decent 10 year fix with scope for overpaying.

Noone I know has a ten year fix which probalby tell me what a good option they are.

Our PM miners are jsut starting to properly move.I really feel a good bull amrket in the air.

We had one, think it was 3.99%. Overpaid the maximum. Took a small hit to pay it off early for the peace of mind.

[Shamone]

28 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

True but can they prize them off the teat 

The teat itself needs cutting off with them attached.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

And so it begins:  

 

Looks fairly cack handed (Trumpian) but a coincidence - I think not. The yanks have realised that their energy "dominance" was an illusion, and is about to very rapidly go in the other direction. Following Monroe doctrine, it won't be long before they are 'influencing' Guyana too.

In other news, henry hub natural gas has broken out of its downtrend as expected, but I was very surprised to see Shell sell some Appalachia assets. That and the divi cut points to a potential management issue at the top, and there is already some rumblings about removing the CEO. Think I'll  rebalance some toward Total and XOM, I probably have too much anyway.

Agree with DB on silver, I'm waiting patiently!

I reckon Shells CEO and a lot of the board will be removed.Selling gas assets in the Marcellus seems nuts.Wish they had sold them to Repsol who are in that field  .My worry with the Shell board is that they are going to splurge shareholder wealth on miss-guided clean energy etc.There is simply no reason to sell those gas assets at this time.

Looks like the US is desperate to get Venezuela oil flowing north again.Wonder why.

[Loki]

Are you still holding RDSB @Durhamborn? They were my top performer until this past week

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, Loki said:

Are you still holding RDSB @Durhamborn? They were my top performer until this past week

Yes and wont be selling,hopefully the CEO is removed before the cycle really gets going.If everyone else has to cut the divi in the next few quarters he will get away with it,but if not i cant see big shareholders allowing him to splurge cash flow.I didnt like the way he brushed off the divi cut during the conference call and called the new dividend level "competitive.".Cutting debt etc is fair enough,but selling assets at this stage of the cycle is crazy,especially gas in the US.

[Errol]

2 hours ago, The Idiocrat said:

DB, would you mind listing a few of the silver miners please? I've got all my silver investments in Wisdom Tree Physical Silver (PHAG) so could probably do with diversifying a good bit. TIA (and of course I'll do my own research but your thoughts appreciated).

Alexco is another one (I hold it).

[Loki]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes and wont be selling,hopefully the CEO is removed before the cycle really gets going.If everyone else has to cut the divi in the next few quarters he will get away with it,but if not i cant see big shareholders allowing him to splurge cash flow.I didnt like the way he brushed off the divi cut during the conference call and called the new dividend level "competitive.".Cutting debt etc is fair enough,but selling assets at this stage of the cycle is crazy,especially gas in the US.

Thanks mate

[DurhamBorn]

31 minutes ago, Errol said:

Alexco is another one (I hold it).

Yes iv a good holding in them already and they have done very well.

[Castlevania]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv got Wisdom Tree as well.Endeavour Silver,Fortuna Silver Mines,Great Panther Mining,International Tower Hill Mines,Coeur Mining,BUENAVENTURA-ADR ,

Great Panther? That’s brave.