Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[leonardratso]

trouble with bitcoin is - have you read the white papers for coins, they make no fucking sense and actually dont even have a problem to solve, the blockchain as an imuttable ledger, ok, i get that, thats probably got uses and value. The coins? i very much doubt it. a few years back there was even one called ponzi coin - guess what, fucking idiots bought it, he was a little late to the party, but still left with $20,000 dollars. Halving in about 7 days as well, but like everything thats gone before, it probably has less of a punch now than it did in the past.

To be brutally honest, anything i buy bitcoin or other coinwise i immediately write off, it may come good, in which case bonus, but i treat it like the lottery, have a flutter, but dont rely on it for any sort of passive income or even a quick hit and run.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Castlevania said:

You must be a fully paid up member of the Labour Party

Crikey it's tricky these days isn't it, I mean you could be being ironic given recent Corbyn antics. But anyway no political allegiances for me these days, now am purely tactical, and financial, in my thinking and actions. But I think (hope?) I get your joke - my post was maybe far too obsequious?

[sancho panza]

On 03/05/2020 at 16:37, JMD said:

Thanks SP. I suspect that the stats will show that deaths attributall to CV will be very similar across most countries that enacted lockdowns. I mean surely the CV will get you (not you!) eventually - until that is we develop a vaccine. That's why I was in favour of no lockdown, but instead the targeted protection of the vulnerable, even if that meant mobilising the army to achieve it.                                                                                                                                                                                                                  But SP have you any ideas why S Korea 'only suffered' 300 deaths? Was it down to contact tracing alone? And if so how did they perfect that system so quickly? Particularly as they were one of the first to be struck.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Toby Young was instrumental in the free school movement so is hated by the liberal left community (or whatever they are) who continually agitate to get Young fired from government advisory poisitions, a la Roger Scruton, its so depressing how free speech has been shutdown. 

I think South Korea/Singapore went down the road of contract tracing,testing widely and isolating vulnerables quickly and that will show in the end.These countries all gained experience of pandemics with SARS iirc which is why they were so ready

Saw a Prof of Epidemiology being intereviewd and he was saying that viruses all have a natural cycle and they mutate to extend it.AS herd immunity builds,then the life cycle of the virus draws down and the virus gets less infectious/debilitating.,

SO I think there'll be three groups of countries

1) those with low infection rates-jsut lucky

2) those who pursued South Korea type policies

3) lock down/no lock down countires that didn't pursue contact tracing/wide testing/isolating vunerable early.

I think the latter group will have remarkably similar stats except for the possibility that the lockdown countries may feature higher death rates as they forced vulnerable people to live with infected people in family homes.

Deaths of medical staff are due mainly to viral laod/lack of training/PPE etc that Prof John NIchols of Hong Kong Uni was warning about 6 weeks back.

 

very much enjoying lockdown scpetics btw

[sancho panza]

12 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly,and it gives my partner something to think about.My son has just bought/is buying a house and he has got a good 10 year fix at 2.64%.You can overpay 10% years 1-6,then from 6 to 10 ,its fixed,but no lock in at all.He has put a 15% deposit down on the house and will owe £106k.Hes also bought £27kish of silver between him and his partner.They are going to over pay 5% to 10% a year then after the 5 year lock in sell the silver if/when it equals whats left of the mortgage.If before that it ever gets to the mortgage amount they will sell it and keep the cash,over pay 10% a year then the full lot at year 6.So if silver trebled in 3 years they would sell etc.

Hes only 21 and his partner is 23,shes a teacher.He has been living with my dad for a few years learning the ropes 

I think there's some real value if you can get a decent 10 year fix with scope for overpaying.

Noone I know has a ten year fix which probalby tell me what a good option they are.

Our PM miners are jsut starting to properly move.I really feel a good bull amrket in the air.

[sancho panza]

11 hours ago, Majorpain said:

I don't know about that....

https://www.shieldsgazette.com/news/south-tyneside-council-borrowing-tops-ps630m-118904

South Shields used to be a good night out, now its pretty dead and the local economy has been reduced to Benefits, Drugs and what little industry is left.  Councillors are nice enough people, just completely useless at anything other than bashing Tories and spending money they don't have.  7.5% unemployment rate isn't great, and that's before corona virus hit.

But then i don't live there so its less of an issue for me!

There's an old quote that 80% of councillors are either unemployed or enemployable.Having had some itnereactions with local govt,I can assure you that I'm not surprised when you see them selling buildings for £1.

Leicester is now 53/54 seats Labour.Get ready to get reamed.There's no oppostion.Noone votes because there's no point.The lectoral system and all the moeny is stacked in labour's favour.Go to the shires(I lvie a 200meteres into the coutny now and it Blue rinse tories with hgue majorities getting to do what they like).

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, AWW said:

http://www.goldchartsrus.com/chartstemp/UKHousePrices01.php

Still more than double the 1979 bottom of UK house prices in gold.

Probably the most shocking conclusion you can come to from looking at those charts is just how much the currency was trashed to support house prices.

Great chart,very thought provoking.I think that will see a huge bottom in 10+ years.......thank you

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think the pensions are all funded and inside a big wrapper all local government is in.They are different to government ones.Most of the time councils borrow from the local government loans board.They also have massive amounts of assets,most own huge amounts of land etc.Id like to see a few go bust.

I'm intrigueed DB,partly because of what you mention wodnering whetehr it was pensions related-sounds not.But then I know they've been buying loads of crappy retail space(Leicester did up one Victorian parade up for £3.5mn ,kicked out all the tenants and it's pretty much been empty since.).

Also I know from my work that social care csots are falling on councils and theyre currently funding it themselves on the whole.

4 carer visits a day probably comes in at 4x£13x30=£1560pcm and that's before they have nay otehr kind of help, eg council tax, 2 carers four times daily is near £3k pcm.............................eye watering.

[JMD]

16 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I think South Korea/Singapore went down the road of contract tracing,testing widely and isolating vulnerables quickly and that will show in the end.These countries all gained experience of pandemics with SARS iirc which is why they were so ready

Saw a Prof of Epidemiology being intereviewd and he was saying that viruses all have a natural cycle and they mutate to extend it.AS herd immunity builds,then the life cycle of the virus draws down and the virus gets less infectious/debilitating.,

SO I think there'll be three groups of countries

1) those with low infection rates-jsut lucky

2) those who pursued South Korea type policies

3) lock down/no lock down countires that didn't pursue contact tracing/wide testing/isolating vunerable early.

I think the latter group will have remarkably similar stats except for the possibility that the lockdown countries may feature higher death rates as they forced vulnerable people to live with infected people in family homes.

Deaths of medical staff are due mainly to viral laod/lack of training/PPE etc that Prof John NIchols of Hong Kong Uni was warning about 6 weeks back.

 

very much enjoying lockdown scpetics btw

Yes, I strongly suspect that all countries that did lockdowns, either 'strong' like Italy, or 'weak' like USA, will have very similar deaths/million of population. Containment of the virus was the key (ie S Korea), not containment/lockdown of the people.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            So would I be correct in thinking South Africa suffered few deaths because it also already had contact tracing expertise, due to its aids epidemic, it could then very quickly mobilise it's staff already in the community. If so this sounds promising and hopefully means we can escape any future lockdowns by doing contact tracing effectively.

[sancho panza]

42 minutes ago, JMD said:

Yes, I strongly suspect that all countries that did lockdowns, either 'strong' like Italy, or 'weak' like USA, will have very similar deaths/million of population. Containment of the virus was the key (ie S Korea), not containment/lockdown of the people.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            So would I be correct in thinking South Africa suffered few deaths because it also already had contact tracing expertise, due to its aids epidemic, it could then very quickly mobilise it's staff already in the community. If so this sounds promising and hopefully means we can escape any future lockdowns by doing contact tracing effectively.

My wife is South African,she would likely advise you not to draw any conclusions from any data you get from their govt.

They'll be missing covid deaths due to lack of testing capcaity or making them up to justify their pretty unjustifiable lock down-theyve banned the sale of booze and fags .....

A lot of wannabee dictators have been flexing their muscles over the last few months imho and probably delighted at how the people of their respective countires have united under the cosh.

It's amazed me how quickly the British people have taken to repression and depsite the poverty of the science behind the Imperial paper,it's lack of peer review and the sheer blind logic that put covid deaths ahead of everyhting else people suffer from.

[Long-game]

56 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

It does not bode well, I'm pretty shocked at the compliance. 

Its not looking great is it?, what next, no immunity passport and you don't access benefits, schools,. Can't travel etc, it's almost getting David Ickeish out there. Near Orwellian 

[spygirl]

10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

anyone any idea how/why this would occur @spygirl @DurhamBorn or anyone else

Surely councils can't go bust without reaming the locals first? Pension pot would get hived off wouldn't it?

https://lockdownsceptics.org/2020/05/02/latest-news-18/#comments

Among those industries hit worst by the lockdown is the aviation industry, with the Mail reporting that in the town of Crawley near Gatwick up to 50% of jobs are at risk of being lost or furloughed. British Airways has already announced it plans to make 12,000 staff redundant and its parent company IAG has just secured a £900 million loan from the Spanish Government. Meanwhile, Rolls Royce is cutting up to 8,000 jobs. Crawley Borough Council is among several local authorities that may have to file for bankruptcy, along with Liverpool City Council and Windsor and Maidenhead Borough Council. Perhaps no surprise then that Simon Dolan, the businessmen who’s hoping to challenge the lockdown in the High Court, owns an aircraft charter business. The Mail has more details.

LA pensi0ons are meant to be fully funded.

Theres various good reasons for that. mainly so that pension costs gets too kwhen the spend i.e. employment occurs. To stop the La filling up with the current workers idiot relatives.

At the moment a hefty chk of current revenue is being used to prop the pension up. That needs stopping. Dead.

Theres an article about LA struggle in TE. Basically, a more sensible LA officers pops his head up says something along lines 'Our property investment yields look like they are going to below their funding costs' i.e the cretins buying up proprty investments have driven yields below ~3%.

Insane.

Never waste a crisis.

Any LA that finds itself with a non yield portfolio needs folding.

One, it draws a lien on future  costs i.e. current salaries and pension. The LA can start again, recruit who it needs at lower wage.

Two, it scare the shit out of other LA, forcing them to rein  i n their spendings.

 

LA spends are still insane from the Labour days. Too many people, paid too much, doing too little.

As an example, heres this genius

https://www.thescarboroughnews.co.uk/news/politics/housing-market-broken-how-scarborough-council-aims-help-provide-homes-borough-2734309

'The housing market is broken': How Scarborough Council aims to help provide homes in the borough

A specialist affordable housing unit is to be created to help Scarborough Council meet its target of creating almost 1,000 new properties before March 2021.

As part of its ‘Build a Better Borough’ programme the authority is exploring how it can deliver better quality and increased numbers of affordable homes to buy and rent within the borough.

The council’s 2018-2021 Housing Strategy set a target to help facilitate the development of an additional 820 affordable homes over a five-year period.

To date, 525 affordable homes have been completed, with up to a further 350 due to complete by March 2021.

However, the council says that new risks and emerging challenges are likely to put the sustainability of its “ambitious” programme in the longer term in doubt.

The council’s housing officers have estimated that the potential affordable housing delivery figures for the period 2021-2026 will be lower than the numbers achieved during the current period.

The council says it will now look to explore ways in which it can support key workers to achieve an affordable and environmentally sustainable home of high design and build quality, as well as optimise the number of affordable homes of this type.

On May 12 the authority’s cabinet is being asked to approve the start of a programme of work to help achieve the council’s aspirations.

Cllr Liz Colling, cabinet member for Inclusive Growth, said: “We are absolutely committed to helping people in our communities get a high quality and affordable home for life, to buy or rent.

“The housing market is broken and we are determined to do all we can to give our residents every opportunity by exploring new and innovative ways of delivery.

“This initiative will enable us to create an aspirational, fairer and more inclusive society.”

If the cabinet approves the recommendations, the council will establish an internal housing delivery project team, identify council-owned land suitable for housing and work with registered providers of social housing and private developers.

Affordability of housing remains a key challenge for many people living and working within the borough.

Average wage levels across the borough are significantly lower than the national average, which makes it more difficult for people to get onto the housing ladder or rent suitable accommodation.

Data from Citizens Advice also indicates that at least 41% of their employed clients claim in-work benefits.

Its insane.

Council tax is a massive sink on the local population. This will cause ctax to burden to increase.

There is no shortage of houses to buy n rent in Scabby. Place is flooded in fact.

Just in Scabby alone, home.co.uk lists ~530 houses fro sale.

Just Scabby town as a population of ~60k. Id guess 30%-50% live in social accommodation, so about 30k in private. At 3 per house thats ~10k housing units. So, one month 5% of housing stock  is listed.

The problem is they that they build houses, they are empty as there are no jobs, so they get filled with scummers from outside mainly south + west yorkshire. Who are all benefit dependent, so increase demand of council services, so increases ctax.

The housing market is not broken. The benefit system is.

They need to set HB at ~30% of local wages.

And they need to limit access to social housing to people with jobs.

MMRis sorting out housing affordability. Rising IRs would sort it out quicker.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Cosmic]

10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Our PM miners are jsut starting to properly move.I really feel a good bull amrket in the air.

Of course they are, I just took profits on GDX... it will fly now

[spygirl]

https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/05/02/councils-outgoings-are-rocketing-and-revenues-collapsing

Britain’s town halls are doing the heavy lifting of fighting the pandemic. They fund care homes, deliver food parcels and bury the dead. They are finding hotels for rough sleepers and refuges for victims of domestic violence. Spending is up, because social distancing and sickness means employing more care staff. Mr Godfrey expects to spend £500,000 a week on protective kit.

At the same time, revenues are down sharply. There is little demand for car parks, swimming pools or school dinners. Bath forecasts a 10% fall in council-tax receipts if hard-up families fail to pay bills. Bradford Council, which runs four theatres, had expected £4.5m in ticket sales on a production of “The Lion King”, a musical, which had been due to open on April 30th.

....

The impact is exacerbated by big changes to council financing over the last decade. Since 2010 successive national governments have cut grants sharply, forcing councils to look elsewhere for income. Some turned to property. Local authorities invested £6.6bn in commercial property in the three years to 2019, a 14-fold increase on the previous period. That poses risks if asset values and rents fall, the National Audit Office warned in February. The Treasury plans to curtail cheap lending for investment in shopping centres and cinemas.

Warrington Borough Council is one of a number of big spenders, with a £700m portfolio of offices, supermarkets and distribution centres. Covid-19 is forecast to leave the council with a deficit of £35m to its £143m budget. Steven Broomhead, its chief executive, worries that rental income may fall behind borrowing costs.

Since 2013 councils have been allowed to keep at least half the business-property taxes raised locally, and since 2011, to earn bonuses for building new houses. That will leave them exposed if businesses fail to pay and housebuilding dries up. Rural district councils are particularly vulnerable because of their reliance on income from parking, leisure and waste, according to research by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a think-tank.

LA should stuck to statutory stuff.

They are shit at that. 

They are even shitter at non stat stuff.

The Bradford council n theatre. See this all th time.

The local money pit spa n halls in Scabby n Whitby are now run by SIV - 

https://www.siv.org.uk/venues/whitby-pavilion

IIRC SIV was set up for the student games

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-14134973

They are still digging themselves deeper, to show a profit, 30 years later.

The World Student Games which took place in Sheffield 20 years ago ran up an overall debt of £658m.

Sheffield Council, which funded the 1991 games, has revealed it will continue to repay £25m a year until the debt is paid off in 2024 despite having to make savings of £80m this year.

Lib Dem group leader Shaffaq Mohammed branded the games a financial disaster.

Bryan Lodge, deputy leader of the Labour-controlled council, said the games venues are an asset.

 

 

 

From TE, in answer to SP:

 

By law, councils must run balanced budgets. Those that do not must declare de facto bankruptcy and freeze non-essential spending. That is rare in normal times but risks becoming more common without more support from Mr Jenrick. It may be the fate of Bradford Council, which forecasts a £60m deficit this year, of which only half will be covered by the bailout. “We are really, really stuck,” says Chris Chapman, the finance director. “What services can we feasibly cut?”

[TheCountOfNowhere]

11 minutes ago, spygirl said:

. “We are really, really stuck,” says Chris Chapman, the finance director. “What services can we feasibly cut?”

Cut wages and pensions.

Welcome to the real world.

[spygirl]

8 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Cut wages and pensions.

Welcome to the real world.

Strip back to statutory services.

Max 5 days paid sick days a year.

All Oaps to be funded by OAP assets. OAPs offered housing a local, all in one place OAP house. Otherwise OAP pay time n travel or carers/

 

[TheCountOfNowhere]

15 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Strip back to statutory services.

Max 5 days paid sick days a year.

All Oaps to be funded by OAP assets. OAPs offered housing a local, all in one place OAP house. Otherwise OAP pay time n travel or carers/

 

I'd go with that.

I only really need my bin collected.  

That's costs about £1 a month.  Council tax could be a lot lower.

[spygirl]

Just now, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I'd go with that.

I only really need my bin collected.  

That's costs about £1 a month.  Council tax could be a lot lower.

So would everyone who doesnt work for an LA.

 

[Craig]

Our council's only plan seems to be to approve as much new housing as possible, then make them all band F & G and rake in the profits!

[DurhamBorn]

Oil up to $24 now,my target by autumn is $35+,Brent likely $40+,Repsol kept its divi at a euro a share and is still investing in two big solar projects and a wind one.They should be very well placed for hydrogen production late in the cycle,maybe the best placed in Europe outside of the UK given they will have lots of renewable power and their refineries are mostly all connected and easy to install hydrogen demonstrators if they choose to.I liked the fact they borrowed as well in April even though they have very strong liquidity.Their debt profile is now looking perfect to mature later in the cycle when they will likely be able to pay off as they mature rather than roll over.

Repsol look really well set for the cycle ahead.

[Agent ZigZag]

21 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Oil up to $24 now,my target by autumn is $35+,Brent likely $40+,Repsol kept its divi at a euro a share and is still investing in two big solar projects and a wind one.They should be very well placed for hydrogen production late in the cycle,maybe the best placed in Europe outside of the UK given they will have lots of renewable power and their refineries are mostly all connected and easy to install hydrogen demonstrators if they choose to.I liked the fact they borrowed as well in April even though they have very strong liquidity.Their debt profile is now looking perfect to mature later in the cycle when they will likely be able to pay off as they mature rather than roll over.

Repsol look really well set for the cycle ahead.

I invested very heavy in Repsol March and I am very happy with my position and price. Not interested in what it does day to day and will not even be looking to skim any top profits. This is a long term buy and hold and Iam only interested in where it is in 5 years time.

[DoINeedOne]

what peoples views on ratios like the dow/gold 

[Majorpain]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/top-german-court-tells-ecb-justify-stimulus-program

Top German court throwing its weight around, Southern Euro states about to be thrown unintentionally off the cliff?

What they don't realise is Germany is attached to them with a chain.....

[DurhamBorn]

39 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

I invested very heavy in Repsol March and I am very happy with my position and price. Not interested in what it does day to day and will not even be looking to skim any top profits. This is a long term buy and hold and Iam only interested in where it is in 5 years time.

Same here im not selling any of them and very pleased with entry points.The only question is over the dividend,its paid as shares that they then re-buy on the market,so no dilution and im deciding if to simply let the shares compound in  Repsol,or sell them and keep the holding size the same.I dont usually ever let divis compound in the same company so i havent decided yet.I might let them compound below 11 ,are you letting them compound up Agent?

[sancho panza]

16 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think the pensions are all funded and inside a big wrapper all local government is in.They are different to government ones.Most of the time councils borrow from the local government loans board.They also have massive amounts of assets,most own huge amounts of land etc.Id like to see a few go bust.

Looks like your right.I should have googled.

SO basically,where the funding could fall down is if as per Spy post that council's can't make their contribution.In the USA all the councils have theri own pension funds.

Could be an epic mess if spys post folowing is on the right road.

19%................can't get over that if correct.

I wonder what happens if the council default on contributions ie wehtehr the scheme will s tep in

Here it is

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=local+council+pension+scheme

average employer contribution is 19%

https://www.bma.org.uk/pay-and-contracts/pensions/being-a-member-of-a-pension-scheme/local-government-pension-scheme

3 hours ago, spygirl said:

https://www.economist.com/britain/2020/05/02/councils-outgoings-are-rocketing-and-revenues-collapsing

Britain’s town halls are doing the heavy lifting of fighting the pandemic. They fund care homes, deliver food parcels and bury the dead. They are finding hotels for rough sleepers and refuges for victims of domestic violence. Spending is up, because social distancing and sickness means employing more care staff. Mr Godfrey expects to spend £500,000 a week on protective kit.

At the same time, revenues are down sharply. There is little demand for car parks, swimming pools or school dinners. Bath forecasts a 10% fall in council-tax receipts if hard-up families fail to pay bills. Bradford Council, which runs four theatres, had expected £4.5m in ticket sales on a production of “The Lion King”, a musical, which had been due to open on April 30th.

....

The impact is exacerbated by big changes to council financing over the last decade. Since 2010 successive national governments have cut grants sharply, forcing councils to look elsewhere for income. Some turned to property. Local authorities invested £6.6bn in commercial property in the three years to 2019, a 14-fold increase on the previous period. That poses risks if asset values and rents fall, the National Audit Office warned in February. The Treasury plans to curtail cheap lending for investment in shopping centres and cinemas.

Warrington Borough Council is one of a number of big spenders, with a £700m portfolio of offices, supermarkets and distribution centres. Covid-19 is forecast to leave the council with a deficit of £35m to its £143m budget. Steven Broomhead, its chief executive, worries that rental income may fall behind borrowing costs.

Since 2013 councils have been allowed to keep at least half the business-property taxes raised locally, and since 2011, to earn bonuses for building new houses. That will leave them exposed if businesses fail to pay and housebuilding dries up. Rural district councils are particularly vulnerable because of their reliance on income from parking, leisure and waste, according to research by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a think-tank.

LA should stuck to statutory stuff.

They are shit at that. 

They are even shitter at non stat stuff.

The Bradford council n theatre. See this all th time.

The local money pit spa n halls in Scabby n Whitby are now run by SIV - 

https://www.siv.org.uk/venues/whitby-pavilion

IIRC SIV was set up for the student games

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-14134973

They are still digging themselves deeper, to show a profit, 30 years later.

The World Student Games which took place in Sheffield 20 years ago ran up an overall debt of £658m.

Sheffield Council, which funded the 1991 games, has revealed it will continue to repay £25m a year until the debt is paid off in 2024 despite having to make savings of £80m this year.

Lib Dem group leader Shaffaq Mohammed branded the games a financial disaster.

Bryan Lodge, deputy leader of the Labour-controlled council, said the games venues are an asset.

 

 

 

From TE, in answer to SP:

 

By law, councils must run balanced budgets. Those that do not must declare de facto bankruptcy and freeze non-essential spending. That is rare in normal times but risks becoming more common without more support from Mr Jenrick. It may be the fate of Bradford Council, which forecasts a £60m deficit this year, of which only half will be covered by the bailout. “We are really, really stuck,” says Chris Chapman, the finance director. “What services can we feasibly cut?”

I was hoping my question might thro up some thought provoking posts.

Looks like a lot of councils have been buying up land either outright or psossibly on the knock.SOme as you say have bought some awfull busineses .Amazing that warrington council have so much.What are they going to do if the properties ear empty?I was in Leicester this morning and the city was dying before,now will be mainly empty.COuncil have bought loads of old shops as below.EMpty.

I hadn't thought of the loss of revenues.

Going to be interesting to see how this unwinds,as those shop retns won't be coming bac and if they do it'll be a lot lower than previous.If their income is already below borrowing cotst then it's jsut a matter of time.

Social care budgets -in Leicester the council fully fund them for most people-the next door local councils don't I beleive.If anyone knows more,feel free to enlighten me please.

 

 

Cov council bought a massive grade 1 listed hotel a few years back.Dread to think of what the bill for covid will be for that

https://coventryobserver.co.uk/news/exclusive-coventry-council-to-secretly-buy-out-coombe-abbey-hotel-in-multi-million-pound-deal/

Leicester council buy shops for £1.8mn in 2017,they're still empty

https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/leicester-news/city-council-buys-block-shops-954546

£700k on a disused car showroom jan 2020-leicester

https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/leicester-news/council-buying-leicester-car-showroom-3718125

 

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Agent ZigZag said:

I invested very heavy in Repsol March and I am very happy with my position and price. Not interested in what it does day to day and will not even be looking to skim any top profits. This is a long term buy and hold and Iam only interested in where it is in 5 years time.

That's my attitude.We pciked up our first goldies 3 years back and are still sat on them.After msot pulled back 50%,a good few have doubled and then some eg GFI,AU,BArrick.

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Oil up to $24 now,my target by autumn is $35+,Brent likely $40+,Repsol kept its divi at a euro a share and is still investing in two big solar projects and a wind one.They should be very well placed for hydrogen production late in the cycle,maybe the best placed in Europe outside of the UK given they will have lots of renewable power and their refineries are mostly all connected and easy to install hydrogen demonstrators if they choose to.I liked the fact they borrowed as well in April even though they have very strong liquidity.Their debt profile is now looking perfect to mature later in the cycle when they will likely be able to pay off as they mature rather than roll over.

Repsol look really well set for the cycle ahead.

We're taking the shares on all the oilies we own where we can while the prices are cheap.WIll then offload the higher ladders plus the compunded scrip.SO for us,eg RDSB under £20,we take scrip,over twenty we take cash and sell previous scrip.

REpsol is one of our smaller positons so may jsut keep taking the stock tobuild it some.

Thanks for the heads u/info on that one by the way.

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Same here im not selling any of them and very pleased with entry points.The only question is over the dividend,its paid as shares that they then re-buy on the market,so no dilution and im deciding if to simply let the shares compound in  Repsol,or sell them and keep the holding size the same.I dont usually ever let divis compound in the same company so i havent decided yet.I might let them compound below 11 ,are you letting them compound up Agent?

Sorry hadn't read you last.Thats my attitude.At these prices,it's tempting to reinvest.

[sancho panza]

on cue from WOlf st

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/04/commercial-real-estate-prices-retail-property-plunge-in-europe-office-prices-sink/

Commercial Real Estate Already Gets Hit in Europe: Prices for Retail Properties Plunge, Office Prices Sink

by Wolf Richter • May 4, 2020 • 43 Comments

“Wide bid-ask spread points to lower values” going forward. It just started.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

Over the past few years, the various sectors of commercial real estate have split into different trajectories, with some property types, such as industrial and office, rising to new highs, and with retail properties dropping further and further. Then came the issues surrounding Covid-19 and the lockdowns.

The trajectories suddenly turned into the same direction: down for all, but to different degrees, some sectors barely ticking down and other sectors dropping more sharply. And retail properties plunged.

Here is a first taste of the dynamics in Europe, where the lockdowns started earlier than in the US – in Italy, local lockdowns started on February 21, nearly a month before the first local lockdown in the US, the San Francisco Bay Area.

Retail properties have long been suffering from the structural shift of where retail spending takes place, the shift from brick-and-mortar stores to ecommerce. This shift had been relentlessly progressing over the years. But in March and April, it exploded higher as brick-and-mortar stores were shut down and ecommerce operations boomed.

Tenants of retail properties are now having trouble paying rent, or are unwilling to pay rent, as their stores are closed. Some of them will go out of business altogether; others will attempt to stay in business but renegotiate their leases. This whole dynamic has accelerated, as many future years of more or less gradual change are now being distilled into a few months. It has thrown the retail property sector into turmoil.

According to the Green Street Pan-European Commercial Property Price Index, which tracks prices of retail properties in the 25 most liquid real estate markets in Europe, all three sub-indices dropped in April, from March. But prices of retail properties plunged during the month:

• Retail properties: -15.1%
• Office properties: -6.6%
• Industrial properties -0.7%,

“Wide bid-ask spread points to lower values” going forward, the report by Green Street Advisors notes.

The indices for office and industrial properties came off their all-time highs in March. But the all-time high of the retail index was the plateau period of mid-2015 to early 2016. Since then, the retail property index has plunged 29% (chart via Green Street Advisors, click to enlarge):

 

Each index was set at 100 for the month of its pre-Global-Financial-Crisis peak in 2007. According to Green Street, prices are tracked in local currency. The indices capture the prices at which commercial real estate transactions are currently being negotiated and contracted, which makes the index very timely.

Much like the retail sector of commercial real estate, the office sector also faces new structural challenges going forward as work-from-home strategies have been successfully rolled out during the pandemic, and companies and service providers now see that it is a functional and manageable alternative with high productivity for many jobs. This too is playing out worldwide. And this – much like the acceleration of ecommerce – is one of many structural shifts coming out of this crisis.