Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[reformed nice guy]

5 hours ago, CVG said:

It works until it doesn't. I wouldn't want to advertise the fact that I hold a stock of PM at my address.

Sell from your mother in laws house!

[nirvana]

OIL is on a real tear this week! I quite like this barchart.com website cos there's loads of prices on there and if you know the ticker/symbol you just whack it in at the top ie

 

 

[nirvana]

US Oil wants to hit 56s 

Having said I like that website here is the Silver chart and yes the figures say 6.47% rise in 5 days...

ok I give in, if you use the 24.9 low, that's where the rise comes from 

 

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

So does that all mean BP and RDSB are going to go up or down in the next few days / weeks @sancho panza in your opinion as I'm a bit thick

Well said mate. All these techno chartists need to put a simple 'Buy' or 'Sell'

Have you got any RDSB and stop losses set?

[nirvana]

2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Well said mate. All these techno chartists need to put a simple 'Buy' or 'Sell'

are you still offering 3 to 1 on Nasdaq hitting 20k before it retraces back to 9k? 

I'll take it for 1€ 

[geordie_lurch]

14 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Well said mate. All these techno chartists need to put a simple 'Buy' or 'Sell'

Have you got any RDSB and stop losses set?

Yes I have RDSB but my average weighted price paid is 1,105.06p so I'm keeping them for the long haul alongside my other oilies - Exon, Petrofac, Gazprom and Repsol. I have zero BP now after using the cash from them across those other ones and some of my other 20 stocks in this ISA I have built up which I have tried to set up to get me a decent return for the next 7+ years as per a lot of the great knowledge shared here

I wouldn't take much notice of what I'm doing or have done though as it's taken me until I'm in my 40s to take charge of my own financial future via a stocks and shares ISA although I have other assets outside of that though. Anyway I'm 11% up over those 20 or so stocks in total in less than 12 months and that profit has all been reinvested back across them all as and when I have moved things around so am happy with where I am for now

[Democorruptcy]

8 minutes ago, nirvana said:

are you still offering 3 to 1 on Nasdaq hitting 20k before it retraces back to 9k? 

I'll take it for 1€ 

Can you confirm you are accepting "3 to 1 on" i.e. 1.33? Your liability is €1 mine is 33 cents.

[Democorruptcy]

7 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Yes I have RDSB but my average weighted price paid is 1,105.06p so I'm keeping them for the long haul alongside my other oilies - Exon, Petrofac, Gazprom and Repsol. I have zero BP now after using the cash from them across those other ones and some of my other 20 stocks in this ISA I have built up which I have tried to set up to get me a decent return for the next 7+ years as per a lot of the great knowledge shared here

I wouldn't take much notice of what I'm doing or have done though as it's taken me until I'm in my 40s to take charge of my own financial future via a stocks and shares ISA although I have other assets outside of that though. Anyway I'm 11% up over those 20 or so stocks in total in less than 12 months and that profit has all been reinvested back across them all as and when I have moved things around

Well done on the profits!

I only asked about RDSB as they are reporting tomorrow.

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Telcos catching a bid today,Vod coming out with really solid profits

The detail behind the VOD trading update:

https://www.vodafone.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/dfGfJPVrEkZxBbNwFnqZqyw4cbwFRw1hPJC1D8sLxZFx9O6tbL.pdf

[A tremendous # on the lung]

2 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

Where does the demand come from to drive the uranium price up ? Surely the amount of reactors only changes slowly.

Iran 

[Hardhat]

IMO nobody serious about the reflation cycle should be selling BP at these levels.

Positioning is key here, not short term profits.

BP is a big integrated, not saying there isn't a risk they go bust, but it's unlikely, especially when oil prices rise.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

IMO nobody serious about the reflation cycle should be selling BP at these levels.

Positioning is key here, not short term profits.

BP is a big integrated, not saying there isn't a risk they go bust, but it's unlikely, especially when oil prices rise.

You'll be telling me I shouldn't have panic sold all my physical silver next 

[Bobthebuilder]

9 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

IMO nobody serious about the reflation cycle should be selling BP at these levels.

Positioning is key here, not short term profits.

BP is a big integrated, not saying there isn't a risk they go bust, but it's unlikely, especially when oil prices rise.

My Shell and Repsol are still in profit 10%-15%. Would not dream of selling them at this point but, would like them to fall further to buy more. An odd way of looking at it, I suppose but don't want to try and time the market. Building a pension I can take from around 5 years time is my main goal.

[Errol]

FYI - Gold deals on Moscow Exchange rose 70% to 1.03t in Jan.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Fully agree. I guarantee you BP are making plenty of cash at $55 today, which is why I bought another slice. I don't care about last year, I have no idea why it was sold off on those results, I thought markets were supposed to be forward looking? I guess they're irrational too.

In HL's BP research update after the results yesterday they said break even is $42 a barrel but they were aiming for a "cash balancing point towards $35". I couldn't find that on BP's own docs

 

[No One]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Me.I worked for them for 10 years.Once split value will surface.Not very exciting,nor huge gains expected,but i think they will easily do my 65% including divis for the cycle i aim for to outflank my expected inflation.

They will cut the divi by 1/3 i expect in 22,but i fully expect the uplift in share price will make up for that over the cycle.

They arent an inflation play,but one reason iv been buying them is simply because it was my time there that made me in many ways.I care about them.They had crap management for a while after having superb management,accountants took over,but hopefully that period is ending with the split.

 

why dont you start a thread on the Shares sub forum. 

 

that place is a ghost town, you can almost see the tumble weeds passing by

[Barnsey]

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S

 

[Starsend]

5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Which is a bullish sign for the contrarians surely?

we're sat on some cameco from 2017.It' s run up nicely but coudl be due a pull back.

Yes I guess it is.

Useful list there, couple of new ones for me to have a look at.

 

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Well done on the profits!

I only asked about RDSB as they are reporting tomorrow.

Could do with a down day in them as well.........

5 hours ago, TheNickos said:

anyone picking up GSK as it's taken a nice whack today ?

RThanks for the heads up Nickos.I wouldn't have known otehrwise.Will size them tmrw.Appreciated.

[Bricormortis]

29 minutes ago, No One said:

why dont you start a thread on the Shares sub forum. 

 

that place is a ghost town, you can almost see the tumble weeds passing by

We value quality over quantity, and DB's input above all. Its a macro thread. Dont know why you made that post.

[Noallegiance]

44 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S

 

Well, melt me up Janet!

[Democorruptcy]

7 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Could do with a down day in them as well.........

Are RDSB reporting a day too late?  After my post asking @geordie_lurchif he had any RDSB stop losses, the price went up. At the price when I made the post, a drop the same as BP's -4.3% reporting day would have taken it below £12.

[wherebee]

2 hours ago, Hardhat said:

IMO nobody serious about the reflation cycle should be selling BP at these levels.

Positioning is key here, not short term profits.

BP is a big integrated, not saying there isn't a risk they go bust, but it's unlikely, especially when oil prices rise.

well an out/in trade for me over the past 7 days netted me 50 'free' shares after trading costs though.  Which is nice.

I thought that the general GME/silver reddit madness would cause a bit of selling off, which is did, and then I picked up at the bottom.

Bit risky, but hey - 50 free shares is a nice brucie bonus.

[Hancock]

How much are people looking to have put by for their pension?

Im 45, once i get paid for jobs i've done i'll have £102k in shares, 20k to go in within a few weeks, and another 20k by the end of summer for jobs done.

Then i'll top it up 10-15k per annum for the next 10 years so will have dumped about £250k in there, and will leave it to mature for 5 years until i'm 60 ish, and then just live off the dividends... so i can pass it on to my daughter.

But what is a good retirement sum, £300k at todays prices, would say offer £10k-15k in divvys? Which for just me would be loads.

I'll have my own house in my name with no spunk bucket having any claims to it, so that's a potential for rental income.

[Noallegiance]

So, as the saying goes 'those guaranteed to make money in a gold rush are shovel makers', other than Caterpillar, does anyone know any listed companies that will benefit from an uptick in plant requirements for an industrial reflation?