Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

re TWS there are different versions, one that updates automatically and one that you update manually which is always my preference.....and it runs on Arch linux  unlike ninjatrader 

phone apps suck arse imho.....maybe I'm just not a fan of the likes of robinhood cunts 

[Bricormortis]

13 hours ago, nirvana said:

DaveH is getting pissed on twitter, threatening to block all the 'silversqueezers' 

Though its up over 6 % over 7 days in GBP.

[nirvana]

29 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Though its up over 6 % over 7 days in GBP.

can't see that myself???.....spot has been getting fucked since Monday morning 

post your charts! this is from MT4 

 

[Bricormortis]

6 minutes ago, nirvana said:

can't see that myself???.....spot has been getting fucked since Monday morning 

post your charts! this is from MT4 

 

The basis of what I said is the Bullion by Post "weekly change"

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/silver-price/silver-price-per-ounce/

[Noallegiance]

9 hours ago, Harley said:

Bookkeepers tell you the numbers, accountants ask you what you want, and cash flow is closest to god!

My wife's a straight arrow accountant.

As a bookkeeper she'll tell you your records are shit. As an accountant she'll tell you you can't have it, and cashflow is reducing in most cases thanks to HM Gov!

 

 

[Noallegiance]

14 minutes ago, nirvana said:

can't see that myself???.....spot has been getting fucked since Monday morning 

post your charts! this is from MT4 

 

It's just returning to where it was pre-nonsense. DH said it was an irrelevant blip.

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

DH said it was an irrelevant blip

it's obviously not if you're trading short term or one of the new gen of 'meme traders' 

enjoy your macro view of 'silver to the moon' and I'll focus on the reality of what Mr Market and the charts are saying

TIME is relative 

The problem with DH is he's making macro calls on a micro timescale then get's arsey when the twitterati say 'ooh look it's not going to the moon it's shit the bed now!' 

 

[Bricormortis]

Nirvana do you have a view on the discrepancy between the bullion by post "weekly change" and the mt4 chart, also what is  mt4 please ?

[feed]

26 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

It's just returning to where it was pre-nonsense. DH said it was an irrelevant blip.

I'm not sure it was irrelevant.  Price for physical hasn't fallen back and it'll change dealer behavior.  Owning got more expensive.   Not sure what happens when Mr Muggle finds that buying that 1oz, he missed out on last week, costs 10% more now, now that stock is back.   

Interesting (to me at least) was how much action there was over the weekend and how quickly that fell off, when the US opened on Monday.  It'll be interesting to see if it follows a similar pattern end of this week/weekend. 

[Noallegiance]

17 minutes ago, nirvana said:

it's obviously not if you're trading short term or one of the new gen of 'meme traders' 

enjoy your macro view of 'silver to the moon' and I'll focus on the reality of what Mr Market and the charts are saying

TIME is relative 

The problem with DH is he's making macro calls on a micro timescale then get's arsey when the twitterati say 'ooh look it's not going to the moon it's shit the bed now!' 

 

The bigger problem is wide levels of illiteracy and miscomprehension.

[feed]

7 hours ago, Starsend said:

Do these FVF offers come along fairly often? Been a decade since I sold anything on there.

Fairly frequently at every 2 weekend or so.  But to be offered them you need to be an active seller. I've found listing a handful of sub £50 items mid week will almost always guarantee i get any fees discount offers.  

By paying £2.5 on a £25 sale means i'll pay £1 on a £300 sale.  That's eBay. 

[Cosmic]

9 minutes ago, feed said:

Fairly frequently at every 2 weekend or so.  But to be offered them you need to be an active seller. I've found listing a handful of sub £50 items mid week will almost always guarantee i get any fees discount offers.  

By paying £2.5 on a £25 sale means i'll pay £1 on a £300 sale.  That's eBay. 

My old account started in 2001 never got the £1 offers. I was active, with three figure bills frequently.

Then I got banned in 2017, so my GF started to do my eBay selling for me  That account frequently gets the offers, normally in a way I could chain them when relisting. My bills were now in the £10-£20 mark, thank you eBay.

Some buyers don't understand that sellers can't give out their details until something was purchased, the sale that got me banned (after 2 warnings) was one such... once the sale (from eBays POV, doesn't even need to be paid for if its collect only for example) is complete you can pass information as you please. Many of my items were collect only. If you send the details via message the buyer always has them, vs sending them in the package. You can always just say "Any problems with the delivery please contact me on 07123 456 789", all innocent

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

My wife's a straight arrow accountant.

As a bookkeeper she'll tell you your records are shit. As an accountant she'll tell you you can't have it, and cashflow is reducing in most cases thanks to HM Gov!

Apologies, I wasn't denigrating your wife's profession.  More a half full saying:

. Bookeepers give the figures (objective)

. Accountants present the figures according to principle, "true and fair" and all that (subjective)

. Cash flow (operating in particular) is key for investors trying to cut through the noise.

[Harley]

Short term meme traders on a macro forum!  Wellwantdoyouknow!  I remember the long (and lost) days of being a day trader.  Now I just lean back and listen to the soothing words of @DurhamBorn!  In gardening terms, as nicely offered by a post upthread, I've adopted the "no till" approach!

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

It's just returning to where it was pre-nonsense. DH said it was an irrelevant blip.

The physical is still sold out everywhere, that will take longer to return to previous supply levels regardless of the spot price. For that reason another mini wind in the sails of the miners still to come I think. We’ll still see if I’m up in GPR by this afternoon! 

[CVG]

It works until it doesn't. I wouldn't want to advertise the fact that I hold a stock of PM at my address.

[Harley]

A long term repeat of a long term (monthly) view on silver, DYOR.....

Here is a bullish cup and handle chart pattern, admittedly a very, very, long term one, using Heikin Ashi candles just to emphasise the various key moves.  Just happens to be gold!

Now here's the more volatile (or is it really?) silver chart....

As an aside, notice how momentum has been rising (higher lows on the stochastic and MACD) since 2018.

History does not repeat but often rhymes.

DYOR.

[Castlevania]

39 minutes ago, Harley said:

Apologies, I wasn't denigrating your wife's profession.  More a half full saying:

. Bookeepers give the figures (objective)

. Accountants present the figures according to principle, "true and fair" and all that (subjective)

. Cash flow (operating in particular) is key for investors trying to cut through the noise.

Revenue is vanity; profit is sanity, but cash is king.

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Apologies, I wasn't denigrating your wife's profession.  More a half full saying:

. Bookeepers give the figures (objective)

. Accountants present the figures according to principle, "true and fair" and all that (subjective)

. Cash flow (operating in particular) is key for investors trying to cut through the noise.

No apology needed. It was more for gentle comedy!

[sancho panza]

13 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Which company’s balance sheet is it? It looks like the website that the above is taken from is incorrectly adding it in.  The notes to the accounts should explain it all. 

Apologies to the LPP.The matter needs discussing in depth.

@sleepwello'nightsas well.(my question is at the bottom.Grateful ifg weither of you can shed any light on the liabilites issue.

 

I've cross checked with with MKW which is what I use when doing the coma scores if I can

here's the Petrofac Marektwatch lsiting for the same set of accounts.Huge differences.And it's not jsut Forex(the MKW data is in sterling from what I cans ee,happy to defer,besides the numbers don't come up with a consistent forex denominator.)Weird.Buy the dips as ever .DYOR natch

 

 

 

If we take SLB which is in a the sameindustry,it appears these issues may be specific to Petrofac.There's some issues with the columns eg Investing.com has a line for cash&equivalenst which isn't needed and isn't included int eh running tallies for current assets.There's also the difference in liablitiy talleis but they net off with the equity figures.

https://www.investing.com/equities/schlumberger-ltd-balance-sheet

you'll see SLB has pretty much the same numbers in the MKW data,although there is a difference in total liabilities as they appear to be calcualted differently and include more than investing.com does..and that's consitent with other companies eg XOM

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/slb/financials/balance-sheet

Focusing on key calcs for liabilties. 2020 i ont eh left in inv.com and the right on MKW.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/xom/financials/balance-sheet

 

in terms of shareholder equity,it somehow all balances out.I'd really appreciate if one of you could explain how this is achieved given teh disparity in the liability columns,I'd love to know.

[nirvana]

3 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

Nirvana do you have a view on the discrepancy between the bullion by post "weekly change" and the mt4 chart, also what is  mt4 please ?

I did look at their website and think WTF!

I have an interest in Gold and Silver mainly from the POV that they're 'highly manipulated' which makes them fairly 'tradable' on a daily basis....

As to MT4 it's a platform for gamblers and daytraders  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MetaTrader_4

I'm 'old fashioned' in that respect.....today's gamblers use Robinhood and Trader 212 on their mobiles 

There may be other apps that 'front run you' that I'm not aware of......

that chart I posted is true Silver spot price from my 'gambling broker' which happens to be IG, one of the more respected 'bucket shops'  If your bullion dealer is trying to convince you that prices have rocketed, best of luck! 

Disclaimer: I trade long term with other instruments too.....maybe that's called investing......there's more of a blur between investing and trading nowadays methinks, hence the occasional noise on here ie. buy the oilies, sell the oilies! 

[nirvana]

2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

The bigger problem is wide levels of illiteracy and miscomprehension.

sure, weren't you the geezer yelling 'cup of tea leaves pattern' and shouting 'to the moon, to the moon!'?? 

If not apologies but someone was 

[sancho panza]

@Cattle Prod resonates with your point about traders selling off oilies ahead of an anticipated pullback in the underlying.

to my simple laymens mind at times RDSb and BP have run 30% ahead of Brent.Currently minus 20.

context

 

 

[sancho panza]

Must admit to checking the may/June calls....or £3/2.9 march.

[geordie_lurch]

So does that all mean BP and RDSB are going to go up or down in the next few days / weeks @sancho panza in your opinion as I'm a bit thick