Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Yadda yadda yadda]

5 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

So does that all mean BP and RDSB are going to go up or down in the next few days / weeks @sancho panza in your opinion as I'm a bit thick

Suggests they might go up. Could still have a sentiment headwind from institutions publicising their exit from the sector. And profit taking from the rise up from the bargain basement. Some could be concerned that covid hasn't played out yet with lower oil use as a result. Or that China or somewhere might lockdown heavily again.

[nirvana]

US Oil keeps rising, it broke 55 yesterday, retraced, got bought again and is back in the 55s.....

I'll hodl my oilies as long as it keeps rising......RDSB is in a bit of a channel between £9 and £14.50....yeah quite a big channel lol

Do I give a crap about dividends? At the moment, nah, when it breaks out and the divis start being worth something I might change my mind 

 

 

 

[working woman]

I'm loving the gardening analogy.

I'm off down to my allotment this afternoon, haven't been since before Xmas. 

I'm happy to let things grow, even if it looks scruffy, because at the end of the day, it is food.

My husband on the other hand can't wait to dig things up and chuck them on the compost heap, so it all looks tidy. 

It's funny because at home we are the opposite, I'm the neat freak and he is a really messy. 

 

 

[nirvana]

4 minutes ago, working woman said:

I'm loving the gardening analogy

can't wait to start growing weeds again when the sun comes out  

[DurhamBorn]

The oil sector is doing really well when you take all the negative sentiment and the lockdowns.These set ups are the best you get in contrarian macro investing.You have commods that are going to increase in use,not decrease as a basket.Gas is heading towards a big crunch in around 18 to 36 months.Oil has suffered a 5 year drought in investment in quality reserves (im not talking shale here) and a squeeze wont be corrected by investment or pumping,only price increases to choke of those who cant pay.I love it when a cycle ends and at the same time sentiment is horrific as it confirms in peoples minds that the narrative is true.

Telcos catching a bid today,Vod coming out with really solid profits.What really matters though is the industry is about to come out of a 20+ year deflation in prices and ROCE.Tef and Vod CEOs are pretty much telling the regulators in Europe if they dont back off Europe will be left behind.Perfect time to do it after the vaccines fiasco from the EU.I expect telcos profits to start to benefit from inflation in around 6 month,and to continue for the cycle.

Telecom regulation remains the "great frustration" of European network operators, and a new industrial approach is needed if Europe is to successfully "face the 5G revolution." So said José María Álvarez-Pallete, chairman and CEO of Telefónica, speaking at a debate organized by the Centre for Regulation in Europe (CERRE). "If regulation continues to focus on price pressure, the industry will not be able to address investments for fiber and 5G deployments or new data services and European citizens will be left behind in the digital transition," he added. Álvarez-Pallete was joined in the debate by Vodafone CEO Nick Read and Qualcomm President and CEO Cristiano Amon.

[nirvana]

5G is a danger to human health, glad I don't live in a City anymore 

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/we-have-no-reason-to-believe-5g-is-safe/

[wherebee]

14 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The oil sector is doing really well when you take all the negative sentiment and the lockdowns.These set ups are the best you get in contrarian macro investing.You have commods that are going to increase in use,not decrease as a basket.Gas is heading towards a big crunch in around 18 to 36 months.Oil has suffered a 5 year drought in investment in quality reserves (im not talking shale here) and a squeeze wont be corrected by investment or pumping,only price increases to choke of those who cant pay.I love it when a cycle ends and at the same time sentiment is horrific as it confirms in peoples minds that the narrative is true.

Telcos catching a bid today,Vod coming out with really solid profits.What really matters though is the industry is about to come out of a 20+ year deflation in prices and ROCE.Tef and Vod CEOs are pretty much telling the regulators in Europe if they dont back off Europe will be left behind.Perfect time to do it after the vaccines fiasco from the EU.I expect telcos profits to start to benefit from inflation in around 6 month,and to continue for the cycle.

Telecom regulation remains the "great frustration" of European network operators, and a new industrial approach is needed if Europe is to successfully "face the 5G revolution." So said José María Álvarez-Pallete, chairman and CEO of Telefónica, speaking at a debate organized by the Centre for Regulation in Europe (CERRE). "If regulation continues to focus on price pressure, the industry will not be able to address investments for fiber and 5G deployments or new data services and European citizens will be left behind in the digital transition," he added. Álvarez-Pallete was joined in the debate by Vodafone CEO Nick Read and Qualcomm President and CEO Cristiano Amon.

Here in Australia the impact of higher oil prices is going to be a hell of a shock to a generation (maybe two?) who have no memory of energy crunches.  The road to Melbourne is stuffed every day with people driving 100k each way to work. 

I'm just very grateful to DB for making me sort my positions out in 2020 re the oilies.

[wherebee]

1 minute ago, nirvana said:

5G is a danger to human health, glad I don't live in a City anymore 

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/we-have-no-reason-to-believe-5g-is-safe/

from the same publication:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-shared-psychosis-of-donald-trump-and-his-loyalists/

erm.....

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, wherebee said:

from the same publication:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-shared-psychosis-of-donald-trump-and-his-loyalists/

erm.....

I raise you https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21999884/

[nirvana]

And I'll raise you this too  But since when have the human 'parasite race' ever given a crap about plants and animals 

Over 230 scientists from more than 40 countries have expressed their “serious concerns” regarding the ubiquitous and increasing exposure to EMF generated by electric and wireless devices already before the additional 5G roll-out. They refer to the fact that ”numerous recent scientific publications have shown that EMF affects living organisms at levels well below most international and national guidelines”. Effects include increased cancer risk, cellular stress, increase in harmful free radicals, genetic damages, structural and functional changes of the reproductive system, learning and memory deficits, neurological disorders, and negative impacts on general well-being in humans. Damage goes well beyond the human race, as there is growing evidence of harmful effects to both plants and animals.

[Starsend]

4 hours ago, feed said:

Fairly frequently at every 2 weekend or so.  But to be offered them you need to be an active seller. I've found listing a handful of sub £50 items mid week will almost always guarantee i get any fees discount offers.  

By paying £2.5 on a £25 sale means i'll pay £1 on a £300 sale.  That's eBay. 

Thanks, that's useful info when the time comes. 

[Starsend]

I'm trying to build a small uranium position. Besides the usual suspects like Cameco I really wanted Kazatomprom, the largest uranium miner in the world and paying a tasty 5%+ divi. Rang Hargreaves Lansdown and they can't get it for me as although it's listed on the London exchange it doesn't settle via Crest.

Does anybody hold it and if so how did you buy it?

Can't buy URA either so I'm not doing very well at the moment 

[DoINeedOne]

26 minutes ago, Starsend said:

I'm trying to build a small uranium position. Besides the usual suspects like Cameco I really wanted Kazatomprom, the largest uranium miner in the world and paying a tasty 5%+ divi. Rang Hargreaves Lansdown and they can't get it for me as although it's listed on the London exchange it doesn't settle via Crest.

Does anybody hold it and if so how did you buy it?

Can't buy URA either so I'm not doing very well at the moment 

Degiro has it via Frankfurt Stock Exchange (FRA)

[Errol]

29 minutes ago, Starsend said:

I'm trying to build a small uranium position. Besides the usual suspects like Cameco I really wanted Kazatomprom, the largest uranium miner in the world and paying a tasty 5%+ divi. Rang Hargreaves Lansdown and they can't get it for me as although it's listed on the London exchange it doesn't settle via Crest.

Does anybody hold it and if so how did you buy it?

Can't buy URA either so I'm not doing very well at the moment 

Tried Yellow Cake plc?

[Starsend]

13 minutes ago, Errol said:

Tried Yellow Cake plc?

Yep, got them. They seem to follow the spot price which a lot of people think will have to double over the next couple of years.

It's surprising how few funds/etfs there are for uranium with none of them being available on Hargreaves Lansdown.

[TNS]

anyone picking up GSK as it's taken a nice whack today ?

[geordie_lurch]

12 minutes ago, TheNickos said:

anyone picking up GSK as it's taken a nice whack today ?

Yes apparently I have as that drop seems to have triggered a limit order I put in ages ago and forgot about

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

So does that all mean BP and RDSB are going to go up or down in the next few days / weeks @sancho panza in your opinion as I'm a bit thick

I'm a long term buyer oif the oilies.This is a pullback versus the underlying which I've jsut invested some long term moeny in.-an hour back.Adding to other long term positons.

I'm in the @DurhamBornschool ofbulls for thsi sector for thedecade coming.

In terms of the next few weeks,we have some long March calls 240-300 that are underwater currently,two weeks back they were up 200%-400%.That's leverage.I'm satisfied the March timeline is still good for us to at least break even maybe even touch 300 again-but I'm not strong on TA so would defer to @Harleyor @Cattle Prodwho do more of it

However,the oilies have clear recent form for busting 10% in a week as per chart above.Brent hasn't pulled back,I'm looking for 300 poss before March but maybe they'll stay here.I'm comfortable running with our positions.

have added some May/Jun calls just now-270-280.

WOuld have added some RDSB but they're not as oversold imho as BP.

Decl:very long big oil incl the above.

[sancho panza]

24 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Yep, got them. They seem to follow the spot price which a lot of people think will have to double over the next couple of years.

It's surprising how few funds/etfs there are for uranium with none of them being available on Hargreaves Lansdown.

Which is a bullish sign for the contrarians surely?

we're sat on some cameco from 2017.It' s run up nicely but coudl be due a pull back.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Suggests they might go up. Could still have a sentiment headwind from institutions publicising their exit from the sector. And profit taking from the rise up from the bargain basement. Some could be concerned that covid hasn't played out yet with lower oil use as a result. Or that China or somewhere might lockdown heavily again.

China was busy stockpiling oil at $20 WTI during the summer.Not sure they ever really locked down.

That's what they told Boris and the West anyway.

Be interesting to see what Chinese/Indian imports are doing .

[Bricormortis]

Where does the demand come from to drive the uranium price up ? Surely the amount of reactors only changes slowly.

[DurhamBorn]

24 minutes ago, TheNickos said:

anyone picking up GSK as it's taken a nice whack today ?

Me.I worked for them for 10 years.Once split value will surface.Not very exciting,nor huge gains expected,but i think they will easily do my 65% including divis for the cycle i aim for to outflank my expected inflation.

They will cut the divi by 1/3 i expect in 22,but i fully expect the uplift in share price will make up for that over the cycle.

They arent an inflation play,but one reason iv been buying them is simply because it was my time there that made me in many ways.I care about them.They had crap management for a while after having superb management,accountants took over,but hopefully that period is ending with the split.

 

[Don Coglione]

9 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Where does the demand come from to drive the uranium price up ? Surely the amount of reactors only changes slowly.

Depleted uranium ammunition?

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Where does the demand come from to drive the uranium price up ? Surely the amount of reactors only changes slowly.

When contracts come up to renew and there is a 2% shortage and they panic.Thats how all massive bulls in the sector have happened.Iv made a lot of money over the years in the URA etf,until the EU protected me from it.

[CVG]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Me.I worked for them for 10 years.Once split value will surface.Not very exciting,nor huge gains expected,but i think they will easily do my 65% including divis for the cycle i aim for to outflank my expected inflation.

They will cut the divi by 1/3 i expect in 22,but i fully expect the uplift in share price will make up for that over the cycle.

They arent an inflation play,but one reason iv been buying them is simply because it was my time there that made me in many ways.I care about them.They had crap management for a while after having superb management,accountants took over,but hopefully that period is ending with the split.

 

And I'm a sucker for a quarterly dividend.