Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, wherebee said:

maybe the CFO of Shell is watching this thread and making all their investment decisions off the back of DB;s brain?

And who is Looney from BP following from this forum then?.....`answer on a postcard to....`

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, Errol said:

Atkinsons Bullion has paused trading again - until Tuesday morning! 

https://atkinsonsbullion.com/

Clearly demand is ludicrous and they can't keep up with it or don't have the metal to sell.

 

 

JM Bullion CEO says on CNBC: We often do 1 Million on a weekend, but on Sunday alone we did 27 Million ounces in sales. He says the entire Silver industry is wiped out.

Mmmm, took 30 years for silver to regain its previous price after the Hunt brothers failed attempt, is this the `writing on the wall`?...Caveat emptor.

[geordie_lurch]

Silver just dropped massively - 4.8% at once. I guess JP Morgan and the old guard want to send a message 

[Transistor Man]

5 hours ago, JMD said:

DB, something tells me we may need to corner the cement industry...!!!... apparently that industry accounts for 6% of global co2 emmisions, so they have big incentive to remedy this I guess.                                                                    

I did some work on this issue for an EC project 12 years ago. Cement pyroprocessing is a pretty fierce process, they have a continuous feed of old car tyres going into the kiln. 

The Europairs project attempted to get nuclear vendors, utilities, and industrial partners together, to look at using nuclear cogeneration opportunities - with waste heat going to the industrial process. 

[jamtomorrow]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

On the above here is an example.

http://www.alignccus.eu/

Above is a venture between some pretty big hitters in European research etc.The partners page is very telling as @Cattle Prod suggested.

Now clicking through the partners we find Norchem.Norchem is part of HeidelbergCementAG 

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/h/heidelbergcement-npv

Turns out they are looking to use their Co2 alongside Yara as two big CCS projects.

If Europe add big taxes on for external polluters then someone like Heidelberg could clean up if they are capturing their Co2,and of course getting the carbon credits for it.

Now the project is in Norway,so as Cattle Prod said,likely Equinor involved in this as well.

 

Just a bit of cross market work as an example.The road map is saying this is an area that might be going under the radar and likely a big winner.Could a cement company be a big winner? ,yes it could.

So our roadmap and a bit of detective work leads us to this

https://www.heidelbergcement.com/en

and this

https://www.heidelbergcement.com/en/pr-01-02-2021

Reading the above the tech partner is an Australian company called Calix 

https://www.google.co.uk/search?source=hp&ei=LH4YYLjDHI72gAbXjq2ACw&iflsig=AINFCbYAAAAAYBiMPP7dQUA5WyUMNYZI1Px6yyQc_Kx1&q=calix+asx&oq=calix+as&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQARgAMgIIADIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeMggIABAWEAoQHjIGCAAQFhAeMgYIABAWEB4yBggAEBYQHjIGCAAQFhAeOggIABCxAxCDAToLCC4QsQMQxwEQowI6CAguELEDEIMBOgUIABCxAzoCCC46BQguELEDOggILhCxAxCTAlCdCFiFGmCMJWgBcAB4AIABrwGIAZQGkgEDNi4ymAEAoAEBqgEHZ3dzLXdperABAA&sclient=psy-ab

Tech is kilns for carbon capture,trebled since last March.Maybe we should of put effort in earlier.

Leaving work in two weeks,so im going to spend a lot of time on this area and see if there might be some quality companies to add to the portfolio.

 

 

Heidelberg was already on my BK shopping list based on proximity to the fiscal tit (since governments seem to love projects that involve pouring vast quantities of concrete). Haven't bitten yet purely because divi yield looked a bit stingey compared to other opportunities, but a second thesis like this would change things for sure.

Edit to add: other players in the sector ought to be worth a look on the same basis. Anything to stop, say, Lafarge, Saint Gobain or CRH going down same road?

[geordie_lurch]

Oil giant BP announces $5bn annual loss after year of ‘pain and sadness’ - via here

Will it go up at the opening or down.... ?

Quote

Oil giant BP today announced losses of more than $5billion across 2020, a year described by CEO Bernard Looney as one of “pain and sadness” which saw lives lost, livelihoods destroyed and oil prices tumble. 

The has revealed it plunged to a full-year underlying replacement cost loss of 5.7 billion US dollars (£4.2 billion) against profits of 10 billion US dollars (£7.3 billion) in 2019.

Bernard Looney, chief executive officer, said: "2020 will forever be remembered for the pain and sadness caused by COVID-19. Lives were lost - livelihoods destroyed. Our sector was hit hard as well.

"Road and air travel are down, as are oil demand, prices and margins. 

"It was also a pivotal year for the company. We launched a net zero ambition, set a new strategy to become an integrated energy company and created an offshore wind business in the US. 

"We began reinventing bp - with nearly 10 thousand people leaving the company. We strengthened our finances - taking out costs and closing major divestments. And through all of this, the underlying operations of the company remained safe - one of our safest years - and reliable, and major new projects were brought on line.

“I appreciate our team's commitment to deliver the energy the world needed and am grateful for the support we received from investors and the communities where we work. We expect much better days ahead for all of us in 2021.”

Also important bit...

Murray Auchincloss, chief financial officer, said: "These results reflect a truly tough quarter, with a challenging price environment and COVID-19 related demand impacts. Nonetheless, we made strong progress in reducing net debt again, to $39 billion in the quarter. 

“We remain on track to meet our target of $35 billion between the fourth quarter of 2021 and first quarter of 2022, which will trigger the start of share buybacks, subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating.”

[nirvana]

9 hours ago, Errol said:

JM Bullion CEO says on CNBC: We often do 1 Million on a weekend, but on Sunday alone we did 27 Million ounces in sales. He says the entire Silver industry is wiped out.

dude you really do need to stop ramping in the way you do

Gold just got smacked down below 1850 again and Silver below 28

9 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Silver just dropped massively - 4.8% at once. I guess JP Morgan and the old guard want to send a message 

take it up the ass pleb 

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Oil giant BP announces $5bn annual loss

Damn that's quite a loss, I guess the share price decline was insiders who knew what was coming 

[geordie_lurch]

Just now, 5min OCD speculator said:

Damn that's quite a loss, I guess the share price decline was insiders who knew what was coming 

Is it already priced in though? I am just adding some stop losses

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, geordie_lurch said:

Is it already priced in though? I am just adding some stop losses

yup I keep saying 'stop loss'...it's a battle with yourself as much as it is against Mr Market 

 

[jamtomorrow]

5 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

dude you really do need to stop ramping in the way you do

Gold just got smacked down below 1850 again and Silver below 28

take it up the ass pleb 

What's to stop CFTC just letting the paper market detach completely from physical? I doubt they'll let little details like "delivery" get in the way.

They got this, after all nothing is more important than letting the shorters short:

[nirvana]

4 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

What's to stop CFTC just letting the paper market detach completely from physical?

I was just saying yesterday in another thread, treat them both differently 

now what to do with oilies? actually US oil just burst above 54...

 

[geordie_lurch]

Hmmm it seems my stop loss for BP at 258p didn't trigger with HL so I had to do it manually. That doesn't exactly give me confidence if / when the BK hits

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Hmmm it seems my stop loss for BP at 258p didn't trigger with HL so I had to do it manually. That doesn't exactly give me confidence if / when the BK hits

If I bought some of yours would you let me off the stamp duty?

[Loki]

18 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

What's to stop CFTC just letting the paper market detach completely from physical? I doubt they'll let little details like "delivery" get in the way.

They got this, after all nothing is more important than letting the shorters short:

Threats of integrity more like

[wherebee]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/02/02/bp-swings-big-loss-oil-demand-falls/

 

still being slammed in the mainstream.  Good stuff.  I'm going to go back in with the money from selling out last week.  At current prices I get an extra 10 BP shares for free.  Not a huge amount, but thinking long term every little helps.

[CVG]

7 hours ago, Mapper said:

I have arrived here after coming across ToS and then the original thread.

Having ploughed through (most of) it, I obviously have to thank @DurhamBorn, but also all the other contributors. Thank you.

Really, thank you all.

Can I ask a question?

Top-slicing.

Is it
- taking out the value of your original investment?
- reducing your stake down to the value of your original investment?
- something else?

Any enlightenment, much apprectiated.

Welcome. I'm not sure if it was answered.

For me, it just means cashing in 10/20/30% of an investment in order to realise some of the gains that have been made, i.e. taking a bit off the top.

[jamtomorrow]

7 hours ago, Mapper said:

I have arrived here after coming across ToS and then the original thread.

Having ploughed through (most of) it, I obviously have to thank @DurhamBorn, but also all the other contributors. Thank you.

Really, thank you all.

Can I ask a question?

Top-slicing.

Is it
- taking out the value of your original investment?
- reducing your stake down to the value of your original investment?
- something else?

Any enlightenment, much apprectiated.

Think of it like horticulture.

If you're the kind of grower that gets down the allotment most days, pulling up small weeds here, thinning seedlings there, then top-slicing is probably a good way to approach investing.

If, like me, you're more about studied negligence then I wouldn't worry about it. You'll likely see a gradual loss of diversity as the winners run ("massive greens" syndrome) and you'll want to rebalance at some point. Probably with a brush cutter and some agent orange to hand.

[geordie_lurch]

36 minutes ago, wherebee said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/02/02/bp-swings-big-loss-oil-demand-falls/

still being slammed in the mainstream.  Good stuff.  I'm going to go back in with the money from selling out last week.  At current prices I get an extra 10 BP shares for free.  Not a huge amount, but thinking long term every little helps.

You might get ever more extra shares at this rate as it was over 4% down just there

[wherebee]

25 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

You might get ever more extra shares at this rate as it was over 4% down just there

jeez you are right.  I'll set an order before I go to bed.  That's the only problem with trading from Oz - I have more access to US stocks than UK stocks so often have to get ADRs not Uk stonks. (although from what others have said, the FTSE seems pretty uninteresting).

[Harley]

2 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

What's to stop CFTC just letting the paper market detach completely from physical? I doubt they'll let little details like "delivery" get in the way.

They got this, after all nothing is more important than letting the shorters short:

FFS - ".....Vigilant in surveilling these markets for fraud and manipulation"!

Looks more like the charge of the Light Brigade onto the silver baron's cannons.

IMO PM miners have been technically weakening for some time.  This current excitement may only be a blip.

Seems anything with "Silver" or "Sprott" in its name has done well - that's the level of DD.

Know your market - they can paper settle, chain of custody, etc.

Maybe physical silver is in a long term cup and handle which will bail out the current crazy premiums, possible VAT, etc.  Maybe not.

[Harley]

16 hours ago, Starsend said:

Below is what the search on Hargreaves Lansdown returns for Gazprom.

Both in USD. First one shows a dividend yield of over 13%, second one over 7%?

Anybody know which one to buy? Is one preferable over the other?

 

GAZ	Gazprom Neft OJSC Level 1 ADR each Representing 5 Ordinary Shares
OGZD	PJSC Gazprom ADS each Representing 2 Ordinary Shares

Depends which one you want.  Per reading their profiles, they are different businesses.  Depends if you want all or part of the business.

A quick look on Investing.com......

Gazprom Neft' PAO  (SIBN:MOEX) is a vertically integrated oil company operating in the Russian Federation, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and internationally. The Company's principal activities include exploration, production and development of crude oil and gas, production of refined petroleum products and distribution and marketing operations through its retail outlets. The Company manages its operations in two segments: Upstream and Downstream. The Company's Upstream segment (exploration and production) includes exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas (including joint ventures results), and oil field services. The Downstream segment (refining and marketing) processes crude into refined products and purchases, sells and transports crude and refined petroleum products. The Company offers products and services for motorists and a range of businesses. It offers Gazprom Neft Engine Oils and G-Energy premium oils brands for use in the passenger vehicles.

Gazprom PAO (GAZP:MOEX) operates gas pipeline systems. The Company's principal activities include exploration and production of gas; transportation of gas; sales of gas within the Russian Federation and abroad; gas storage; production of crude oil and gas condensate; processing of oil, gas condensate and other hydrocarbons, and sales of refined products, and electric and heat energy generation and sales. The Company's segments include Production of gas, Transportation, Distribution of gas, Gas storage, Production of crude oil and gas condensate, Refining, Electric and heat energy generation and sales, and Other. The Production of gas segment is engaged in the exploration and production of gas. The Transportation segment is engaged in the transportation of gas. The Distribution of gas segment is engaged in the sales of gas within the Russian Federation and abroad. The Gas storage segment is engaged in the storage of extracted and purchased gas in underground gas storages.

To add: Gazprom PAO owns 92.66% of Gazprom Neft.  BP owns a smallish slice of Gazprom PAO via Roseneft.

IMO the likes of HL do not offer sufficient company data. 

[Bricormortis]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gazprom

Gazprom PJSC

[Yadda yadda yadda]

18 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gazprom

Gazprom PJSC

I have OGZD, which appears to be the correct one, traded in London.

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/OGZD:LI

[Harley]

41 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Topped up some BP this morning. Even though I don't fully trust the CEO yet, I couldn't resist a small buy on this pullback. Results are last years news, they are making money today. Also topped up BT, RIO, BHP, RR and SSE. Some nice pullbacks on the LSE I think.

BP:  Small gap down again today.  IMO entered into the oversold zone on daily and been meandering there on the monthly so I'll wait or just be content and look elsewhere.  Nice thing about my approach is I just wait for the techs to give me the nod.  Naff all atm so just trading the weeklies and should be prepping for the various nasties on the horizon (the only reason I would jump my gun atm).

PS: Daily Heikin candles for BP are a work of beauty!  Love the oillies atm for the clear techs they show.

22 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I have OGZD, which appears to be the correct one, traded in London.

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/OGZD:LI

"Correct one"?