Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 minute ago, Talking Monkey said:

It would be something crazy if the wsb crowd got another stimulus cheque in the next few weeks

Most of the newbies will be nursing their losses by then.

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

First Majestic is heavily shorted 

Of course, that makes sense now with Gamestop etc 

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

It's only about 20% shorted so it wont be squeezed like Gamestop. But it has much better fundamentals obviously.

I need a bot army to hype HOC for me on Reddit 

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

So, silver's doing that... and you're wanna do that, and... oh boy.
 

 

She is right.The cycle dictates the need for massive reflationary sending.There is no other answer,its too late.It was always going to be so at the end of the great disinflation.Only question is how much financial dislocation along the way.This needs fiscal answers,looks like Biden is happy to go along with that.See what we do in the budget.

[Lightscribe]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-31/silver-retail-sites-grind-to-halt-as-reddit-horde-moves-to-coins

And so it begins...

How long until....

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102

[Lightscribe]

7 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I've spent a quick half hour.  Straya has a $10,000 limit on gold or you have to declare above that.  Britain does not appear to have a limit on gold/silver if you carry it in yourself, (but import VAT if you bring it in from Dubai as the example on UK Gov page, and presumably anywhere else.  But maybe not Ireland... see following.
The common travel area appears to allow a british citizen to take as much booze to ireland as they like, provided it was duty and VAT paid in Britain.  Glenmorangie is 50 euro a bottle in Tesco over there.  Famous grouse 27 euro.  I wouldn't be a bootlegger, but if I find a nice bullion dealer, might gift them a nice malt.  For the moment, I'm assuming that's a benefit of the common travel area, (which says "allowed to travel freely"), and would work just the same with bullion going the other way.
So, initial investigation, and I'm thinking I can maybe do this.  If I find any different, I'll post again.

Glenmorangie? Whisky for an Irish bullion dealer? That’s like poking him in the eye.

I think you’ll get further with a nice bottle of Redbreast whiskey. Actually speaking as a person of Irish lineage on my mother’s side, who cares? A bottle of this will suffice.

https://www.masterofmalt.com/whiskies/feckin-drinks-company/feckin-irish-whiskey/

[spygirl]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Silver is the inflation hedge daddy.Like this thread has always said it is likely to be the cycles best performing asset.The main takeaway from whats going on is that young people are being woken up to the fact silver protects them from printing theft.That is huge,and im very pleased about that.Maybe they put pressure on the shorts by actually buying the physical silver slowly and surely.I must admit,if they did squeeze a big run early it would be quite a moment seeing my son pay his mortgage off before 23 years old,his grandchildren would have a photo of me in their wallets 

Does your son have an early repayment penalty on his mortgage?

He might be able to repay it and the mortgage in a few months ...

Reddit traders switch sights to silver after equities attack

ETF attracts almost $1bn of inflows after call to arms on discussion board

https://www.ft.com/content/d46e8623-09af-4a1f-b7e5-207616388b0f

If you thought inflation was bad in the late 70s.

Just imagine how bad inflation with mass trades coordinated on the internet is going to be.

 

 

 

[spygirl]

Analysts said it would be more difficult for retail investors to influence the silver price as opposed to that of a single equity, given the large off-exchange market for the precious metal, where banks trade on behalf of clients.

“We are confident that the influence of retail investors on silver will not last all that long,” analysts at Commerzbank said.

 

Balls.

This isnt a handful of idiots hanging around trading floors, gossiping.

Youve go the entire online world on reddit.

The vast number of retail punters makes up for their individual lack of leverage/cash.

 

 

[jamtomorrow]

3 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Analysts said it would be more difficult for retail investors to influence the silver price as opposed to that of a single equity, given the large off-exchange market for the precious metal, where banks trade on behalf of clients.

“We are confident that the influence of retail investors on silver will not last all that long,” analysts at Commerzbank said.

 

Balls.

This isnt a handful of idiots hanging around trading floors, gossiping.

Youve go the entire online world on reddit.

The vast number of retail punters makes up for their individual lack of leverage/cash.

 

 

What they don't have is the attention span and/or patience of the institutional players. Redditors need to look like "winning" this one soon (like: this week), otherwise the they'll lose interest and move onto the next mania.

[wherebee]

8 minutes ago, spygirl said:

 

“We are confident that the influence of retail investors on silver will not last all that long,” analysts at Commerzbank said.

 

 

German banks really are fuckwits, in my experience.  No imagination, no way of realising the world has changed until it smacks them in the mouth.

Lets say less than 1% of the under 30's in the west understood how gold and silver are real money (not fiat) and how governments are terrified of them finding a real price level.  I didn't understand until I was mid 30's, and only because in HK it's talked about openly at a coffee table level.

As of this week, it's probably approaching 5% of under 30's.  Hell, even my son (late teens) is talking about it in the car ffsake, and he's more interested in online gaming than anything.  He's asked me out of the blue to teach him about stocks and trading after GME became a topic amongst his mates.

Whether or not this reddit raid on silver works, whatever the reaction of TPTB, you could see up to half of under 30's working out how fucked fiat is in the west.  That's HUGE for the silver and gold market, for ever.

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, wherebee said:

As of this week, it's probably approaching 5% of under 30's.  Hell, even my son (late teens) is talking about it in the car ffsake, and he's more interested in online gaming than anything.  He's asked me out of the blue to teach him about stocks and trading after GME became a topic amongst his mates.

Whether or not this reddit raid on silver works, whatever the reaction of TPTB, you could see up to half of under 30's working out how fucked fiat is in the west.  That's HUGE for the silver and gold market, for ever.

Think about Silver is it spills over into the antiques market where silver gets even more interesting with its added value on many fronts.

[geordie_lurch]

So are we going to get some bargains today / this week or have we already missed the bottom. Time to fund out...

[Boon]

Oilies could be the bargains, they are down.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

FRES and HOC have gapped up. 15 and 13% each. Not spectacular for silver but a good start.

XOM and BP earnings are on Tuesday I think.

[geordie_lurch]

1 minute ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

FRES and HOC have gapped up. 15 and 13% each. Not spectacular for silver but a good start.

XOM and BP earnings are on Tuesday I think.

Yes my punt on Fresnillo last week seems to have been a good one so far 

[Lightscribe]

37 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Think about Silver is it spills over into the antiques market where silver gets even more interesting with its added value on many fronts.

Shhh! Don’t tell everyone about that! More competition with loading up on tankards/goblets/fruit bowls for well below spot 

[Democorruptcy]

17 minutes ago, Boon said:

Oilies could be the bargains, they are down.

BP reporting on 4th quarter and declaring dividend Tuesday, RDSB on Thursday.

Of thread interest also this week VOD, BT, RMG & GSK (COP & XOM in US)

[feed]

52 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

What they don't have is the attention span and/or patience of the institutional players. Redditors need to look like "winning" this one soon (like: this week), otherwise the they'll lose interest and move onto the next mania.

The action is going to be different. 
Physical has drawn down. What happens when a cheap shiny meets the hodl generation.

[Lightscribe]

10 minutes ago, feed said:

The action is going to be different. 
Physical has drawn down. What happens when a cheap shiny meets the hodl generation.

Yup. People underestimate the Gen-Zers as needing constant stimulation and losing interest. They understand this boomer perception of them all too well. They’ve cut their teeth on crypto and are now out for blood in the real world at the broken legacy that’s been left for them.

The goal is to buy all available physical and to hold to dislocate the spot paper price to physical as much as possible. They hope that this will expose COMEX in actually having no physical to back up their paper and hurt JP Morgan massively in the process. They’re in it for the long game.

[spygirl]

59 minutes ago, wherebee said:

German banks really are fuckwits, in my experience.  No imagination, no way of realising the world has changed until it smacks them in the mouth.

Lets say less than 1% of the under 30's in the west understood how gold and silver are real money (not fiat) and how governments are terrified of them finding a real price level.  I didn't understand until I was mid 30's, and only because in HK it's talked about openly at a coffee table level.

As of this week, it's probably approaching 5% of under 30's.  Hell, even my son (late teens) is talking about it in the car ffsake, and he's more interested in online gaming than anything.  He's asked me out of the blue to teach him about stocks and trading after GME became a topic amongst his mates.

Whether or not this reddit raid on silver works, whatever the reaction of TPTB, you could see up to half of under 30's working out how fucked fiat is in the west.  That's HUGE for the silver and gold market, for ever.

Gold and silver are not money. They are commodities.

try paying for a house in gold, directly.

If you mean a  store of value then you are getting closer.

 

The German banking system was designed very differently, the regulators preferring dozens of small regional banks who understood their home area better than, say, HBOS.

Where German banking has fail is with the large commercial banks  who were overwhelmed by the german economic success that pumps huge amounts of cash to them and wants it invested a no risk.

German economy is cash rich. Theres little demand to get rid of the cash internally. So they go abroad and thats when problems happen.

 

 

 

 

[wherebee]

Just now, spygirl said:

Gold and silver are not money. They are commodities.

try paying for a house in gold, directly.

If you mean a  store of value then you are getting closer.

Not to derail this thread, but that's bollocks.  If someone rocked up and wanted to buy the house I am sitting in now in gold coins, I'd bite their fucking arm off.

Gold and silver have been proven to be money in critical situations where you want to get out alive, as well.  Paper money - not so much.

Anyway, no more on that.  I suspect the under 30's will be awakened to fiat much earlier than I was, or you need to be

 

[jamtomorrow]

12 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Yup. People underestimate the Gen-Zers as needing constant stimulation and losing interest. They understand this boomer perception of them all too well. They’ve cut their teeth on crypto and are now out for blood in the real world at the broken legacy that’s been left for them.

I think that's true of the core movement.

I'm just not sure it's true of the huge influx of newcomers - with a much wider gamut of motivations - needed to lay siege to silver. Time will tell, I'd be very happy to be wrong.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

6 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Yup. People underestimate the Gen-Zers as needing constant stimulation and losing interest. They understand this boomer perception of them all too well. They’ve cut their teeth on crypto and are now out for blood in the real world at the broken legacy that’s been left for them.

The goal is to buy all available physical and to hold to dislocate the spot paper price to physical as much as possible. They hope that this will expose COMEX in actually having no physical to back up their paper and hurt JP Morgan massively in the process. They’re in it for the long game.

Having read wsb they appear to think that silver is being pushed by band wagon jumpers. People using wsb's new found fame to push their separate agenda.  It is largely being deleted from there. The old guard have obviously been swamped by millions of new subscribers and there are attempts to set up new boards for them.

This silver push is all over Twitter and has made the media. That will create a momentum all of its own. I don't know how long it will last.

I agree that youngsters are more than capable of holding silver for the long term. You can't really trade silver coins. It does tend to be a long term investment. It will be fascinating to see what happens.

[spygirl]

21 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Not to derail this thread, but that's bollocks.  If someone rocked up and wanted to buy the house I am sitting in now in gold coins, I'd bite their fucking arm off.

Gold and silver have been proven to be money in critical situations where you want to get out alive, as well.  Paper money - not so much.

Anyway, no more on that.  I suspect the under 30's will be awakened to fiat much earlier than I was, or you need to be

 

The conveyancing solicitor would not let it happen.

And youd be up for money laundering.

Currency is something you can spend directly.

Gold has a store of value. The value needs converting to money before anything can happen.

 

 

 

 

[Bricks & Mortar]

 

11 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Having read wsb they appear to think that silver is being pushed by band wagon jumpers. People using wsb's new found fame to push their separate agenda.  It is largely being deleted from there. The old guard have obviously been swamped by millions of new subscribers and there are attempts to set up new boards for them.

This silver push is all over Twitter and has made the media. That will create a momentum all of its own. I don't know how long it will last.

I agree that youngsters are more than capable of holding silver for the long term. You can't really trade silver coins. It does tend to be a long term investment. It will be fascinating to see what happens.

Having taken DB's early advice, (that if a guy didn't have a large pot or was starting out, he might stick to a small number of silver miners), and subsequently started following the main silver investor/commentators on Twitter;  the above is exactly what happened.  Silver push comes from long-time silver investors who tried to go on wsb and promote their thesis, and are getting thrown out because wsb isn't finished with GME and their other stocks yet.