Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[JMD]

53 minutes ago, Option5 said:

Equinor are building a system "Northern Lights Project"

Thank you Option5. That project you mention is exactly what I was looking for, makes for very interesting reading. Big oil is involved and I am already invested in that sector. But Fortune Oslo Varma is involved and I will see if I can buy some if the price is right. I think/hope waste-to-energy companies like them are an interesting (next cycle tech) play. 

[JMD]

4 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Not relevant at all, but Greta Thunberg’s second name is Tintin. 

Not relevant you say?... Didn't Tintin have a dog called Snowy? Isn't Greta preoccupied with the ice caps? I think I'm beginning to join the dots!!!

[Rave]

6 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I've mis-written when I put the trade was shut down for the Redditors.  It was, instead, made "sell-only".  I think enough of them realised the game was up and sold while it was like that.

I haven't bothered to look at the volumes traded but as far as I can tell very few of the squeezers panicked and sold. Of course with the traffic made one way only it was possible to drop the price back down to $120 on very low volume, which in turn allowed RH and others to stop people out of their leveraged option positions, but that's all it will have achieved. The hedgies would in no way have been in a position to profit from a nominal drop from $480 to $120, there simply won't have been anything like the liquidity required.

[Rave]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Insightful post Rave. Do you know of any co2 capture/sequestration companies that you think might do well? I think your also correct about the hydrogen/battery tech companies, like most of the tech sector, they are far too pricey - at least for me to buy anyway. But I would like to put some money into a few potential co2 capture companies, but I expect most of them are still private?

Unfortunately I know little about Carbon Capture and Storage, and less still about any potential investment plays on it. And the reason for that is...that I have instinctively written it off as another unscientific boondoggle; a method for capturing government subsidies rather than for capturing meaningful quantities of CO2!

I should say at this point that my only qualifications for pontificating on the subject of energy are my A-Levels in Physics and Chemistry. I flunked out of my university engineering course when it became apparent that I was good at understanding scientific concepts at a handwavy level and very poor at understanding the maths required to make practical use of them. Obviously I can use google and read wikipedia as well as the next man, but that's it.

So that said, my objection to CCS as a technology is that gaseous CO2 at atmospheric temperature and pressure is in a very low energy state, and so doing anything with it at all requires the input of a significant amount of energy. I guess that if you collect a relatively concentrated source of it, for example the exhaust from a gas turbine, then it might not take a great deal of energy to compress it into a storage tank....but it will presumably require quite a lot more energy to then separate it from the nitrogen and water vapour also present in said exhaust. And once you've got a tank of compressed CO2, what do you do with it? It has plenty of uses of course, but I suspect that if every thermal power plant were to start capturing, concentrating and storing all their CO2, then supply would quickly outstrip demand. Simply pumping it back into depleted gas fields and leaving it there is an idea with some merit, I suppose.

I guess I should really force myself to do a bit of the maths I detest and find out / work out exactly what the proportion of the energy produced by buurning fossil fuels would be required to adequately sequester the CO2 produced as a result. I suspect that it will be in the order of 50%, but I could be wildly wrong. Now if we were still in the era of being able to easily and cheaply extract new reserves of fossil fuels then we might be in a position to use it in a way that only half the available energy ends up available to us for useful purposes; but, with the possible exception of natural gas, which has its own problems as an energy source (difficulty of storage and transport, primarily) we are not in that position. In fact we already have to expend significant amounts of energy to extract fossil fuel reserves, and our overall Energy Return On Energy Invested (EROIE) continues to drop. We are not, IMO, in a position to cut it in half again by implementing CCS.

One system I do think is technologically and financially sound is the 'Thanet Earth' model of blowing the exhaust from a gas turbine power plant into a giant greenhouse, where the heat and CO2 concentration helps plants to grow more vigorously.

I think in general though that a more realistic way forward and hence probably a better investment play will simply be for humans to simply use less energy. We have already done quite a lot in that direction; I mean who uses incandescent bulbs any more when LEDs produce more pleasing light for a tenth of the energy input? I think also that an increase in energy prices will mean that people will frontrun the proposed ban on ICE cars in 2030 by simply using cars a lot less anyway as the cost of fuelling them rises precipitously. The days of dragging 1500kg of metal around in order to move one or two 80kg people will largely come to an end. I live in suburban London and I already see dozens of people every day using those little electric scooters to get about. They will do 15 miles at 15mph on about 4-5 pence worth of electricity. They're still not legal but sooner or later they will either be legalised or effectively decriminalised because there are now so many of them about that an organised crackdown on them would be impossible IMO. Meanwhile you can get a perfectly good, and perfectly legal, electric bicycle for £1000 which use roughly the same amount of energy per mile as the scooter. As the bikes and scooters become ever more of a commodity I expect prices to fall further, in inflation adjusted terms at least.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

6 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

 

Ah.  I'd checked in the afternoon and saw it was taking off.  I see it fell back.
I'm also calming down as I've checked to see the total assets under management at Robinhood are a mere $20 billion, (the big brokers are in the trillions).
What's got me spooked is RH is preventing its users from buying AG, and 50 other stocks.
I'm still taking something out of my stock portfolio, and buying physical silver on Monday.  Got my eye on some 500g silver bars from thegoldbullion.co.uk unless I find a better price over the weekend.
I'll be watching what is said over the weekend before deciding how much to take out.  May only be 10% or so, if everything dies down.
 

Do you pay vat on those?

Cheers

Edit. Yes.

Edit

VAT free from here

https://www.silver-to-go.com/en/silver-coins/coin-bars/1-kilo-coin-bar-silver-stonex/

[Bricks & Mortar]

33 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Do you pay vat on those?

Cheers

Edit. Yes.

Edit

VAT free from here

https://www.silver-to-go.com/en/silver-coins/coin-bars/1-kilo-coin-bar-silver-stonex/

I was thinking they might not be charging VAT, but HM Customs will be looking out for stuff like that, and adding it as it comes into the country, for you to pay before they release it.  I have a friend who got similar on a dog kennel a couple weeks back.

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

 

 

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Running numbers and i think core inflation will touch multi decade high of 3% at the start of this cycle ,so thats over 25 years high.Liquidity is there for that already.Market is positioned for the opposite to happen.Market is shaking out people of the inflation/cyclical trade before likely moves higher again in those sectors.

Normal move from Fed business cycle printing is around 2% gain in core inflation.Looking at liquidity its likely we will get 3%+ so touching or above 3% is very likely for the first stage.

The market is missing the message this will send.It is buy energy and things you use before others do.Given the lack of investment in oil and gas this last 5 years its likely mid term price targets could over shoot.The vaccine situation is a window into what happens when politicians make big mistakes.There is no bigger one than handing energy policy to 15 year old Swedes.

Is there a force at work that could blow previous estimates about the cycle ahead out the water to the up side?

Just thinking aloud - stuff has been manipulated and micro managed for so long that a cycle swing on the opposite direction could be more violent than we suspect?

[reformed nice guy]

50 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

VAT free from here

https://www.silver-to-go.com/en/silver-coins/coin-bars/1-kilo-coin-bar-silver-stonex/

 

6 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I was thinking they might not be charging VAT, but HM Customs will be looking out for stuff like that, and adding it as it comes into the country, for you to pay before they release it.  I have a friend who got similar on a dog kennel a couple weeks back.

I bought 100 philharmonics from them in December for just under £2400 including delivery.

Same 100 would £2,602.50 with the risk of an additional 20% vat and handling charge...

I checked Chards and they are £3,498.60 for 100 maples.

Still cheaper to go for silver-to-go! About a £350 or so saving if you have to pay vat or almost £900 if your lucky and it gets through vat free

[Castlevania]

49 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Oh dear, her parents really did screw her over.

I feel sorry for her. I think her parents and others used her to push their agendas, and sticking a child like that, especially an autistic one, into a public circus is negligent if I'm being generous. I'd expect the Miley Cyrus route for her but I suspect she'll be indifferent to it all. She'll end up hating her parents though.

What’s the Miley Cyrus route? 

[Errol]

The bullion dealers I look at are completely sold out of all silver bars. Shockingly high levels of demand.

[Errol]

[Castlevania]

32 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Child star pushed by her parents ->  rebellion/shave hair off and start dry humping things on stage etc etc

I dunno. I have a soft spot for her. She can most definitely sing. 

[leonardratso]

7 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I dunno. I have a soft spot for her. She can most definitely sing. 

dont you mean a hard spot.

[Option5]

7 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I dunno. I have a soft spot for her. She can most definitely sing. 

I have "Everytime" as my morning alarm ringtone.

[Castlevania]

3 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

dont you mean a hard spot.

Nah. She’s quite “boyish” in her looks.

[leonardratso]

3 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Nah. She’s quite “boyish” in her looks.

is that  a problem?

[Castlevania]

I’m a big fan of the Backyard Sessions she did almost 10 years ago.

Edit: Plus her in an absolute classic tune

 

[Castlevania]

21 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

is that  a problem?

Not if I was in her presence. However in the real world there are people to “think about” who are a little more lady like.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Running numbers and i think core inflation will touch multi decade high of 3% at the start of this cycle ,so thats over 25 years high...

 

Yeah it's going to shock a lot of folks, especially so when mass UNEMPLOYMENT hits...

 

Do YOU or anyone here remember 'Scrimpers' with Ray Brookes back in the day ...circa 1994?!

 

Brilliant programme for "HARD TIMES"... I remember a single mum in one program who had furnished her entire house out of things she'd found in skips!

 

Now would be a good time to email channel 4 and ask them to rerun the 'Scrimpers' series - maybe it would have more appeal now for not just economic but also green issues? greta

 

AnyHOO...Searching on YT, and found a couple of old series ENJOY

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Chewing Grass]

Well, just checked my money purchase pension scheme and its down 3% exactly from the day lovely Joe and the glorious Democrats and their Wall St / MSM backers won the US election.

[Clueless Imbecile]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Normal move from Fed business cycle printing is around 2% gain in core inflation.Looking at liquidity its likely we will get 3%+ so touching or above 3% is very likely for the first stage.

Hi DurhamBorn.

I've seen it written that the Fed only controls the interest rate "at the short end", presumably by buying short-term bonds to drive the price up and the yield down. Apparently the market controls the long term interest rate (maybe 20 & 30 year bond yields).

What is to stop the Fed from simply printing enough dollars (even if it is trillions) to buy enough long term bonds to drive the price up and the yield down and thereby control the interest rate at the long end?

The only answer I can think of is that maybe there are so many long term bonds in existence that the amount of dollars that would need to be printed (or "QE'd" into existence) to buy enough of them to drive the interest rate down would be such that the side effects would be worse than the benefits of doing it (currency collapse, maybe).

Just wondering what your opinion is on this?

 

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

 

[Castlevania]

9 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

Yeah it's going to shock a lot of folks, especially so when mass UNEMPLOYMENT hits...

 

Do YOU or anyone here remember 'Scrimpers' with Ray Brookes back in the day ...circa 1994?!

 

Brilliant programme for "HARD TIMES"... I remember a single mum in one program who had furnished her entire house out of things she'd found in skips!

 

Now would be a good time to email channel 4 and ask them to rerun the 'Scrimpers' series - maybe it would have more appeal now for not just economic but also green issues? greta

 

AnyHOO...Searching on YT, and found a couple of old series ENJOY

 

 

 

 

 

 

There’s a programme on something called TLC which inspired this thread in Off Topic. Something about a millionaire eating cat food because it’s $0.20 a tin cheaper than tinned fish?

Anyhow it might help with some ideas to future proof oneself.

 

[Castlevania]

10 minutes ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

Hi DurhamBorn.

I've seen it written that the Fed only controls the interest rate "at the short end", presumably by buying short-term bonds to drive the price up and the yield down. Apparently the market controls the long term interest rate (maybe 20 & 30 year bond yields).

What is to stop the Fed from simply printing enough dollars (even if it is trillions) to buy enough long term bonds to drive the price up and the yield down and thereby control the interest rate at the long end?

The only answer I can think of is that maybe there are so many long term bonds in existence that the amount of dollars that would need to be printed (or "QE'd" into existence) to buy enough of them to drive the interest rate down would be such that the side effects would be worse than the benefits of doing it (currency collapse, maybe).

Just wondering what your opinion is on this?

 

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

 

QE is how they manipulate the long end of the curve. They print money and use it to buy long dated Treasuries, thus reducing the yield at the long end.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

@Castlevania yeah saw that at other thread - hattip to @Frank Hovis

however i just prefer the Brit stuff, but must say the video below is HILARIOUS of a MULTI-Millionaire TIGHT-WAD!

 

I expect some of YOU guys are gonna go like this woman when you've made your millions come the end of the cycle?!!!

 

 

[Castlevania]

13 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

@Castlevania yeah saw that at other thread - hattip to @Frank Hovis

however i just prefer the Brit stuff, but must say the video below is HILARIOUS of a MULTI-Millionaire TIGHT-WAD!

 

I expect some of YOU guys are gonna go like this woman when you've made your millions come the end of the cycle?!!!

 

 

5 minutes in when she’s having a moan about having to spend money on her 17 year old car is gold. 

I’d be the same

How has she managed to get her divorced husband to come around every week to do the house cleaning?