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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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“Although 2020 was an unusual year in many ways with the pandemic and the decline in oil prices, investments on the shelf were at the same level as previous years,” Director general Ingrid Sølvberg at the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate said as she on Thursday presented the Shelf 2020 report.

Figures made available by the Directorate show that investments in the country’s shelf development amounted to NOK 155 billion (€15.04 billion), up from NOK 151 billion in 2019. A total of 31 exploration wells were spudded, and 14 discoveries made, most of them in the Norwegian Sea.

Growing production

Oil production increased to 1,7 million barrels per day, which is the highest level in nine years. And production will continue to grow for several more years, much thanks to the newly opened Johan Sverdrup field in the North Sea. According to the estimates, production is expected to reach more than 2 million barrels per day in 2025. Also natural gas production is expected to remain stable for several more years.

Controversial tax incentives

The crisis year of 2020 ultimately did not bring any crisis to Norwegian oil. According to Sølvberg, that is much thanks to the Norwegian Government’s tax incentives that were introduced during the major drop in the oil price.

The incentives were strongly disputed by environmentalists, who argued that the money instead should be invested in renewable energy transformation. Oil companies now openly say that the incentives have helped speed up investments in new petroluem projects

More exploration

The directorate leader also made clear that Norway will continue to explore its shelf for additional resources. So far, only about half of the country’s oil and gas resources have been exploited, and more than 25 percent have yet to be discovered, she said and pointed at the High North as the most prospective region.

Arctic resources

“It is bubbling in the Barents Sea North,” a slide in Sølvberg’s presentation said. It pictured the Arctic seabed embraced in gas bubbles.


This is a sign that there are petroleum resources in the area, the Directorate leader explained.

Norway’s resource potential is believed to be especially high in the northern parts of the Barents Sea. More than 60 percent of the un-discovered resources are in the region, and most of them in the areas north of the 74th parallel.

This region has not been opened for drilling. But Sølvberg signals that she would like to see an opening. In 2020, the directorate conducted a major survey of natural oil and gas leakages in the area, and results apparently indicates significant resources.

25th License Round

Southern parts of the Barents Sea have been a disappointment for oil drillers, and in 2019 Equinor and several more companies announced that they will move out of the area. Other parts of the region, however, remains top priority. In Norway’s announced new 25th Licensing Round, a record high number of 125 new exploration blocks are in the Barents Sea.

It has sparked an outcry from environmentalists.

Climate action plan

The drive towards more drilling also stands in sharp contrast to the Norwegian government’s growing climate commitments. Only three days before the presentation of the Petroleum Directorate’s Shelf Report, did Prime Minister Erna Solberg present an ambitious plan to curb emissions.

At least 40 percent cuts will be made in non-ETS emissions by 2030, the government says, and those cuts will be made domestically.

“We will cut emissions and enhance removals of CO2 in a way that transforms Norway and promotes green growth,” Solberg said, and called for an industrial sector that is “greener, smarter and more innovative.”

The country’s oil industry intends to introduce green power in new offshore project and take several more measures aimed at reducing emissions. But parts of the industry is strongly skeptical towards the produced measures.

The Norwegian Oil and Gas Association has already expressed its opposition to a proposed hike in carbon tax rates from the current level of about NOK 590 to NOK 2000 per tonne CO2 equivalents.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2021/01/norwegian-oil-big-investments-growing-production-and-desire-high-arctic

 

 

So fucked if i know 
Calling @Cattle Prod 

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20 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Thats the problem clickbait headlines always assume the worse 

Crudely written PR fluff piece?  Like 99% of their output?  It's hard to make money, and impossible listening to this lot.

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Democorruptcy
1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Depends if their own oil and gas reserves run out. There’s wrong way risk in being exposed to both their own resources and also owning other oil and gas stocks. Then again if their own reserves run out - you’d want exposure.

I think they did things the wrong way around. They should never have bought any oil and gas stocks until their own reserves start running down I.e. now would be a good time to start buying.

They have a lot of brass, trying to move the market down to get a cheaper price?

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17 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

They have a lot of brass, trying to move the market down to get a cheaper price?

According to 28/01/2021, this is fine.

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5 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Jesus, where do I start.

Norways a funny place. I admire a lot of what they've done. Growing their own oil industry expertise from scratch, and putting the dosh in the wealth fund while keeping taxes high to prevent Dutch disease being the top two. Their environment is also pristine, they are even run on renewable energy (hydro, they sell the hydrocarbons). But they are a small country of 5 million people. Everyone knows everyone with ~ one degree of separation. They have no problem with cognitive dissonance. Like alcohol: highly regulated, can only buy wine and spirits in government shops. So everyone gets smashed at home and staggers out at midnight to find a bar and go nuts. Everyone knows, nobody minds. They are also very smug about their good fortune, and there is a pervading 'Norway knows best" air about them (I've lived there and worked with many of them elsewhere). They have some good people, but they are all very very comfortable. No risk of redundancy, ever. I personally know people who had their full salaries paid out for 3 years so that they get to retirement age. That kind of thing.

The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate has hundreds of people, many of whom are having a 'rest' from the industry. Sounds like their chief is one, the Barents Sea is not bubbling, it's crap and people keep wasting money there. They won't find much. That said, Norway is the world leader in enhanced recovery, and will squeeze every last drop of what they have found. They quite enjoy each having a share of $1.3 Tn, and won't be stopping funding that. Life is very easy over there, and in fairness, quite equal. You will find a CEO and a plumber in the same neighbourhood, there is not a 300x difference in salary, and everyone's salary is published, believe it or not, so you know what everyone earns. I'm digressing, but this gives you an idea of whats behind these odd decisions. 

So the soveregin wealth fund is run by committee, mostly civil servants. And usually headed up by some Norwegian who managed to get experience elsewhere in financial markets somewhere. In this case, a chef/hedgie. This all worked fine in the great disinflation, as the SWF is essentially a passive index fund. Dropping oilies now is just them being slow on the uptake on what the rest of the finance world has been doing. I'd guess someone noticed XOM was dropped from the DOW, and it's finally worked through committees etc. I bet they haven't dropped Equinor.

Meanwhile, their mates and cousins at the NPD are doing their job, handing out licences, while shaking their heads at the idiots in the SWF dumping at the bottom of the cycle. In return the folks in the SWF are shaking their heads at the NPD handing out licences in a dead industry. In the summer they'll meet up to go fishing, and in the winter to go skiing. They'll politely discuss the pros and cons into the evening, getting smashed, before heading out at midnight to wreck the place like teenagers in Newcastle.

That's the nuts of it.

You should write a memoir about the oil industry @Cattle Prod !

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1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

Exactly. They'll buy them back expensive, which is fine as some of that money will flow to me!

They also have to be careful what and when they buy in certain industries. Don't want to be accused of insider trading so they're careful what they trade and when.

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Democorruptcy
6 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

So the soveregin wealth fund is run by committee, mostly civil servants. And usually headed up by some Norwegian who managed to get experience elsewhere in financial markets somewhere. In this case, a chef/hedgie. This all worked fine in the great disinflation, as the SWF is essentially a passive index fund. Dropping oilies now is just them being slow on the uptake on what the rest of the finance world has been doing. I'd guess someone noticed XOM was dropped from the DOW, and it's finally worked through committees etc. I bet they haven't dropped Equinor.

I saw one of the chaps who manages the fund interviewed on TV yesterday. He said their remit is to mirror the indices, so that fits.

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3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Shot......and chaser xD

 

That type of hyperbolic language chills me (but similar to Trump i guess, only i bet AOC wont receive any press castigation for stirring up 'mob emotions').

Since the so called 'storming of Capital Hill' (or was it more about wondering aimlessly through corridors, sitting in chairs and throwing papers over the floor?; 5 died and was tragic, but a planned and armed insurrection it wasn't) - but it has allowed the Democrats to take the political moral high-ground, and with the Republicans in total meltdown, it will be very interesting to see how far they can push through their social agendas... n.b. as DurhamBorn always reminds us, the economic policies are very much baked in, politicians just like to 'jump in front' of ideas like MMT and pretend its their own idea. 

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ThoughtCriminal
17 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Jesus, where do I start.

Norways a funny place. I admire a lot of what they've done. Growing their own oil industry expertise from scratch, and putting the dosh in the wealth fund while keeping taxes high to prevent Dutch disease being the top two. Their environment is also pristine, they are even run on renewable energy (hydro, they sell the hydrocarbons). But they are a small country of 5 million people. Everyone knows everyone with ~ one degree of separation. They have no problem with cognitive dissonance. Like alcohol: highly regulated, can only buy wine and spirits in government shops. So everyone gets smashed at home and staggers out at midnight to find a bar and go nuts. Everyone knows, nobody minds. They are also very smug about their good fortune, and there is a pervading 'Norway knows best" air about them (I've lived there and worked with many of them elsewhere). They have some good people, but they are all very very comfortable. No risk of redundancy, ever. I personally know people who had their full salaries paid out for 3 years so that they get to retirement age. That kind of thing.

The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate has hundreds of people, many of whom are having a 'rest' from the industry. Sounds like their chief is one, the Barents Sea is not bubbling, it's crap and people keep wasting money there. They won't find much. That said, Norway is the world leader in enhanced recovery, and will squeeze every last drop of what they have found. They quite enjoy each having a share of $1.3 Tn, and won't be stopping funding that. Life is very easy over there, and in fairness, quite equal. You will find a CEO and a plumber in the same neighbourhood, there is not a 300x difference in salary, and everyone's salary is published, believe it or not, so you know what everyone earns. I'm digressing, but this gives you an idea of whats behind these odd decisions. 

So the soveregin wealth fund is run by committee, mostly civil servants. And usually headed up by some Norwegian who managed to get experience elsewhere in financial markets somewhere. In this case, a chef/hedgie. This all worked fine in the great disinflation, as the SWF is essentially a passive index fund. Dropping oilies now is just them being slow on the uptake on what the rest of the finance world has been doing. I'd guess someone noticed XOM was dropped from the DOW, and it's finally worked through committees etc. I bet they haven't dropped Equinor.

Meanwhile, their mates and cousins at the NPD are doing their job, handing out licences, while shaking their heads at the idiots in the SWF dumping at the bottom of the cycle. In return the folks in the SWF are shaking their heads at the NPD handing out licences in a dead industry. In the summer they'll meet up to go fishing, and in the winter to go skiing. They'll politely discuss the pros and cons into the evening, getting smashed, before heading out at midnight to wreck the place like teenagers in Newcastle.

That's the nuts of it.

First post I've wanted to click Agree, Informative and lol

 

Great post 👍

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10 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Possibly so.

But perhaps other multinational businesses don't hose Nigerian pirates off the leg of a rig with a mud pump, or have the new guy unwittingly blow the shitter up with dynamite and spray the camp with the contents :D.

Ahhh, you mean drillers. Now you're talking about a different breed entirely. Second only to divers in the lunacy stakes.

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Democorruptcy

Mark Carney is on Bloomberg today talking about climate change etc. (Edit it's 11:30am)

The final report from the meeting mentioned below is here

Quote

 

At the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum, Carney, the UN special envoy for climate action and finance, presented the recommendations of a private sector-led taskforce to respond to an anticipated boom in demand for carbon offsets.

The final report, which was still being designed on Wednesday morning, was not circulated to taskforce members before the launch, contrary to expectations they would be briefed ahead of the event.

“The voluntary carbon offset market… is complementary to companies’ efforts to reduce absolute emissions… [that] only then look to offset,” Carney told the World Economic Forum. The market would help “maximise” the use of the world’s remaining carbon budget to meet its climate goals, he said.

He described the market as “catalytic” to finance projects in emerging and developing economies and “breakthrough technologies” as well as harnessing “potential enormous co-benefits” for biodiversity for example. “It is one piece of the puzzle. We do need this market.”

Chaired by Bill Winters, group chief executive of Standard Chartered, and sponsored by the Institute of International Finance (IIF), the taskforce includes some of the world’s most polluting companies: airline easyJet, plane manufacturer Boeing, oil giants BP, Shell and Total, and steel producer Tata Steel. No green groups are represented among its members.

More... https://www.climatechangenews.com/2021/01/27/carneys-carbon-offset-taskforce-ducks-environmental-integrity-questions/

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Think carefully about jurisdictional risk and how market structure could evolve.

That frog has been boiled *very* slowly over the cycle, to the extent that messing with globalised free-flowing capital markets with direct access to "backbone" assets now seems unthinkable to many, even among contrarians (although it's notable that access to CB reserves has never been fully democratized).

Well they just messed with it, bigtime. And the sky didn't fall in, which means they'll keep messing with it from here.

The direction of travel is clear: you, me, and all the other retail investors are going to be herded out the door and into our own separate "markets" for financial instruments which will largely be derivatives of the underlying.

You won't be allowed to buy or sell the same assets in the same pool as institutions. Only accredited institutions will be permitted to hold instruments like government debt, corp bonds, stocks and shares. Everyone else will have to buy derivatives from the institutions.

Manipulation? They're just getting going. This Robinhood fandango is the perfect excuse for more of the same.

I agree. Not to mention less ipo's happening year on year, and increase in companies being taken back into private hands (2019 link below, but shows it was happening well before the pandemic). 

I think an escape plan from that market 'herding' that you mention, from say mid-decade onwards should be on everyone's radar. Tbh, what such a plan looks like i don't know as yet, and it probably wouldn't involve selling all stocks in any case, but taking profits and going physical would definitely be part of the plan. New opportunities will emerge i'm sure, in the mean time i'm accumulating (hopefully!).         

More and More Public Companies Are Going Private | Institutional Investor

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geordie_lurch

Is it just me or does it feel like the markets aren't doing much so far today?

I'm literally only basing this feeling on the number of shares that change price when I'm viewing my Account summary in HL and 1 or 2 are changing every few seconds compared to most of them moving some way every second :ph34r:

Can anyone who knows more about all this compare volume today to a typical Friday am?

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13 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Agreed! The dynamite one was by a seismic crew though. He was supposed to make a new toilet hole with the dynamite (Aussie outback if I recall), but put it too close to the old one... Divers are mental all right, and amongst geos, the reall nutters seem to gravitate toward gold mining for some reason. 

OK one offshore anecdote at risk of derailing the thread slightly.

I was in the morning planning meeting offshore when the OIM (offshore installation manager) told us to warn our lads about a man overboard drill at 10am to test the standby boat response time.

He instructed the head scaffolder to go to the top deck and in a container he would find a dummy which he should throw over the side at the north east corner of the platform at 10am.

10am a call comes over the radio "Man overboard, north east corner"

I was in the control room, the radio operator calls the standby boat and tells them, 90 seconds later they have launched the fast rescue RIB.

40 minutes and several angry radio messages later they still haven't found the dummy. The OIM loses it and shouts down the radio "FFS how hard can it be to find a 6 foot dummy wearing bright Orange overalls and a fluorescent yellow lifejacket?"

The scaffolder at the back of the control room pipes up:

 "Lifejacket? Nobody said anything to me about a lifejacket."

The dummy was recovered by an ROV 2 days later.

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Democorruptcy

Hedge Fund manager just interviewed and he said Gamestop is being portrayed as David v Goliath, Retail v Hedge Funds but that's wrong because David has hedge funds on his side and it's hedge fund v hedge fund. He said we know how it's going to end, with a lot of pain for retail investors and some hedge funds. Maybe The Fed have their finger on the repo button?

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1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

“Although 2020 was an unusual year in many ways with the pandemic and the decline in oil prices, investments on the shelf were at the same level as previous years,” Director general Ingrid Sølvberg at the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate said as she on Thursday presented the Shelf 2020 report.

Figures made available by the Directorate show that investments in the country’s shelf development amounted to NOK 155 billion (€15.04 billion), up from NOK 151 billion in 2019. A total of 31 exploration wells were spudded, and 14 discoveries made, most of them in the Norwegian Sea.

Growing production

Oil production increased to 1,7 million barrels per day, which is the highest level in nine years. And production will continue to grow for several more years, much thanks to the newly opened Johan Sverdrup field in the North Sea. According to the estimates, production is expected to reach more than 2 million barrels per day in 2025. Also natural gas production is expected to remain stable for several more years.

Controversial tax incentives

The crisis year of 2020 ultimately did not bring any crisis to Norwegian oil. According to Sølvberg, that is much thanks to the Norwegian Government’s tax incentives that were introduced during the major drop in the oil price.

The incentives were strongly disputed by environmentalists, who argued that the money instead should be invested in renewable energy transformation. Oil companies now openly say that the incentives have helped speed up investments in new petroluem projects

More exploration

The directorate leader also made clear that Norway will continue to explore its shelf for additional resources. So far, only about half of the country’s oil and gas resources have been exploited, and more than 25 percent have yet to be discovered, she said and pointed at the High North as the most prospective region.

Arctic resources

“It is bubbling in the Barents Sea North,” a slide in Sølvberg’s presentation said. It pictured the Arctic seabed embraced in gas bubbles.


This is a sign that there are petroleum resources in the area, the Directorate leader explained.

Norway’s resource potential is believed to be especially high in the northern parts of the Barents Sea. More than 60 percent of the un-discovered resources are in the region, and most of them in the areas north of the 74th parallel.

This region has not been opened for drilling. But Sølvberg signals that she would like to see an opening. In 2020, the directorate conducted a major survey of natural oil and gas leakages in the area, and results apparently indicates significant resources.

25th License Round

Southern parts of the Barents Sea have been a disappointment for oil drillers, and in 2019 Equinor and several more companies announced that they will move out of the area. Other parts of the region, however, remains top priority. In Norway’s announced new 25th Licensing Round, a record high number of 125 new exploration blocks are in the Barents Sea.

It has sparked an outcry from environmentalists.

Climate action plan

The drive towards more drilling also stands in sharp contrast to the Norwegian government’s growing climate commitments. Only three days before the presentation of the Petroleum Directorate’s Shelf Report, did Prime Minister Erna Solberg present an ambitious plan to curb emissions.

At least 40 percent cuts will be made in non-ETS emissions by 2030, the government says, and those cuts will be made domestically.

“We will cut emissions and enhance removals of CO2 in a way that transforms Norway and promotes green growth,” Solberg said, and called for an industrial sector that is “greener, smarter and more innovative.”

The country’s oil industry intends to introduce green power in new offshore project and take several more measures aimed at reducing emissions. But parts of the industry is strongly skeptical towards the produced measures.

The Norwegian Oil and Gas Association has already expressed its opposition to a proposed hike in carbon tax rates from the current level of about NOK 590 to NOK 2000 per tonne CO2 equivalents.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2021/01/norwegian-oil-big-investments-growing-production-and-desire-high-arctic

 

 

So fucked if i know 
Calling @Cattle Prod 

'Confused, you will be' ('Soap' link below)... Never mind, i hope all will be made clear at the COP26 in Glasgow. I'm sure that Gretta and all her shiny happy people will bring a warm glow to the world.  

Soap (TV comedy) opening/intro #2 - YouTube

 

 

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I've moved some of my cash out of my broker into my aussie bank.

I think this redditmob action is a great reminder re return OF capital vs return ON capital.  I think when the BK breaks, some investors will get nothing back, or at best pennies on their nominal gains (see MF Global as a great example).

 

I think someone else upthread said you need an exit roadmap when you are doing well.  Wise words.

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24 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Hedge Fund manager just interviewed and he said Gamestop is being portrayed as David v Goliath, Retail v Hedge Funds but that's wrong because David has hedge funds on his side and it's hedge fund v hedge fund. He said we know how it's going to end, with a lot of pain for retail investors and some hedge funds. Maybe The Fed have their finger on the repo button?

Or it brings down the whole market.

The chairman of Interactive Brokers is concerned that those who wrote the options contracts simply don’t have the money to pay out. You can kind of see how this would create contagion.

 

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Democorruptcy
5 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Or it brings down the whole market.

The chairman of Interactive Brokers is concerned that those who wrote the options contracts simply don’t have the money to pay out. You can kind of see how this would create contagion.

 

I don't know what to make of it all. The fact that Michael Burry's name is involved with Gamestop makes me wonder if this is something big and that was a torpedo. Carney was just asked about it and said it's the job of CB's to provide liquidity, so the markets functions properly. I sold everything except one much loved share, the week before Biden's inauguration when RDSB hit 14.40 but I've been buying stuff back cheaper for more units and am not selling again. I have put some very cheeky limit orders in, just in case the shit does actually hit the fan when these short options expire and the tide goes out. It's great fun!

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2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Jesus, where do I start.

Norways a funny place. I admire a lot of what they've done. Growing their own oil industry expertise from scratch, and putting the dosh in the wealth fund while keeping taxes high to prevent Dutch disease being the top two. Their environment is also pristine, they are even run on renewable energy (hydro, they sell the hydrocarbons). But they are a small country of 5 million people. Everyone knows everyone with ~ one degree of separation. They have no problem with cognitive dissonance. Like alcohol: highly regulated, can only buy wine and spirits in government shops. So everyone gets smashed at home and staggers out at midnight to find a bar and go nuts. Everyone knows, nobody minds. They are also very smug about their good fortune, and there is a pervading 'Norway knows best" air about them (I've lived there and worked with many of them elsewhere). They have some good people, but they are all very very comfortable. No risk of redundancy, ever. I personally know people who had their full salaries paid out for 3 years so that they get to retirement age. That kind of thing.

The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate has hundreds of people, many of whom are having a 'rest' from the industry. Sounds like their chief is one, the Barents Sea is not bubbling, it's crap and people keep wasting money there. They won't find much. That said, Norway is the world leader in enhanced recovery, and will squeeze every last drop of what they have found. They quite enjoy each having a share of $1.3 Tn, and won't be stopping funding that. Life is very easy over there, and in fairness, quite equal. You will find a CEO and a plumber in the same neighbourhood, there is not a 300x difference in salary, and everyone's salary is published, believe it or not, so you know what everyone earns. I'm digressing, but this gives you an idea of whats behind these odd decisions. 

So the soveregin wealth fund is run by committee, mostly civil servants. And usually headed up by some Norwegian who managed to get experience elsewhere in financial markets somewhere. In this case, a chef/hedgie. This all worked fine in the great disinflation, as the SWF is essentially a passive index fund. Dropping oilies now is just them being slow on the uptake on what the rest of the finance world has been doing. I'd guess someone noticed XOM was dropped from the DOW, and it's finally worked through committees etc. I bet they haven't dropped Equinor.

Meanwhile, their mates and cousins at the NPD are doing their job, handing out licences, while shaking their heads at the idiots in the SWF dumping at the bottom of the cycle. In return the folks in the SWF are shaking their heads at the NPD handing out licences in a dead industry. In the summer they'll meet up to go fishing, and in the winter to go skiing. They'll politely discuss the pros and cons into the evening, getting smashed, before heading out at midnight to wreck the place like teenagers in Newcastle.

That's the nuts of it.

Great insights as usual CP. Norwegians 'Smug' you say? I bet they can get away with being so because they are a small country, here it would be characterised as 'typical British' arrogance/cheuvenism/imperialism? 

As you comment Norway are only 5m people, and i think this means fortuitously for them that they can steer a 'middle way', neither socialist nor capitalist (i know, outdated economic definitions). However, the media like to simplify things (as per usual) and really enjoy referring to the Scandinavian countries as a kind of socialist paradise, and a model for the rest of the West. But if i were to be a bit cynical, Norway for example, would not be viewed as being a success without its 'sovereign wealth fund' economic cushion - or might we really call it out for what it really is -a (national) 'blind family trust', inherited by each new generation of lucky Norwegians, passed down from their wealthy ancestors? (all quiet 'old school' really)

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
42 minutes ago, wherebee said:

moved to the gamestop thread

THANK f**** for that!

Personally I'd rather have £1K or so coming in monthly divis that f*** about trading that shite!:P
 
...Meanwhile back at the ranch, I @DurhamBorn @M S E Refugee AND other RMG holders are commmming in their panties as the stock is OVER £4 QUID!  xD
 
Are ya in on this @MrXxxx  ?
 
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