Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[wherebee]

4 hours ago, Barnsey said:

WOW

 

I reckon AOC will shut up pretty fucking fast when it turns out the whitehouse was involved......

 

I wonder what would have been different under Trump's leadership though if the election hadn't been fixed.  Would he have let this run?  He doesn't exactly love wall street?

[Don Coglione]

4 minutes ago, Gin said:

"Myron said he had since been locked out of his account and unable to use it while his identity is being checked. But when he gains access again, he plans to take out the £1,000 he has in it and call a halt.

Though hoping to go into investment banking after he gets his degree, he said he was disillusioned by what he sees as "market manipulation" directed against people like him."

 

Myron, who has had an account on the Trading 212 platform since August last year, said he had lost £30 on Gamestop shares, which he owned for "a couple of hours" and sold when he saw what was happening.

Sign him up, GS!

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, Gin said:

"Myron said he had since been locked out of his account and unable to use it while his identity is being checked. But when he gains access again, he plans to take out the £1,000 he has in it and call a halt.

Though hoping to go into investment banking after he gets his degree, he said he was disillusioned by what he sees as "market manipulation" directed against people like him."

 

Myron, who has had an account on the Trading 212 platform since August last year, said he had lost £30 on Gamestop shares, which he owned for "a couple of hours" and sold when he saw what was happening.

Fuck me where did the BBC scrape Myron from, must be some interns mate of other BBC kiddiwinkles family member.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55837519

Poor Myron lost £30 but became a BBC celebity - cool dude.

"They support a capitalist free market only when it works for them. What we saw today was not a free market and it forced an awful lot of people to lose an awful lot of money," said 18-year-old Myron a student at Warwick University.

Myron has sussed it but the BBC hasn't as they angle the start of the article towards the hedge banksters being the victims.

"When ordinary people try to make money in a system where only rich traders can make money, that's what happens," he told the BBC.

"Maybe I won't trade for a while, to be honest," he added. "I've got other stuff to do."

[Green Devil]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/rob-from-the-poor-and-give-to-the-rich-robinhood-prompts-furious-backlash-after-restricting-trades

This is shocking. Pleased to see a backlash against what is clear market manipulation by robin hood probably at the request of Citadel. Pure scum. Lets hope they burn for it.

 

[leonardratso]

4 minutes ago, Loki said:

Good idea given the situation 

the environmental one doesnt actually look too bad to me on the top holdings, the energy one(another 91 fund i looked at) is just basically oil, but i think ill just wait and see what the mix is at the top end before i bin it off, i already have some of the nat resources ones individually and it was just to capture the ones i dont have really, plus funds are much cheaper to deal anyways.

Ill wait and see, might not be passed, likely will be , but lets see the final mix. Dont mind profiting off daft vegans like i said.

 

[leonardratso]

11 minutes ago, Gin said:

"Myron said he had since been locked out of his account and unable to use it while his identity is being checked. But when he gains access again, he plans to take out the £1,000 he has in it and call a halt.

Though hoping to go into investment banking after he gets his degree, he said he was disillusioned by what he sees as "market manipulation" directed against people like him."

 

Myron, who has had an account on the Trading 212 platform since August last year, said he had lost £30 on Gamestop shares, which he owned for "a couple of hours" and sold when he saw what was happening.

more like moron than myron hehe.

Still, you cant trust out of context articles, they do tend to make everyone look like a turd, when it maybe never went down that way live.

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

the environmental one doesnt actually look too bad to me on the top holdings, the energy one(another 91 fund i looked at) is just basically oil, but i think ill just wait and see what the mix is at the top end before i bin it off, i already have some of the nat resources ones individually and it was just to capture the ones i dont have really, plus funds are much cheaper to deal anyways.

Ill wait and see, might not be passed, likely will be , but lets see the final mix. Dont mind profiting off daft vegans like i said.

 

Well I remember durhamborn saying the green industries will suck up government money (Hope I'm not misunderstanding you @DurhamBorn ) so might be worth holding until reality hits

[Gin]

6 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/rob-from-the-poor-and-give-to-the-rich-robinhood-prompts-furious-backlash-after-restricting-trades

This is shocking. Pleased to see a backlash against what is clear market manipulation by robin hood probably at the request of Citadel. Pure scum. Lets hope they burn for it.

 

Not like dem hedge fund managers

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

Well I remember durhamborn saying the green industries will suck up government money (Hope I'm not misunderstanding you @DurhamBorn ) so might be worth holding until reality hits

also - and its a long shot, some of those green lads might be scooped up by big oil at some point so we might well get a double hit of goodies. I mean i used to have first utility as elec and gas provider, they were 300-400 quid a year cheaper than the previous BG for the same consumption, they got a bit steep before i went to another, but not long after shell bought them out, so you never know.

[Green Devil]

4 minutes ago, Gin said:

Not like dem hedge fund managers

It gets worse.

 

[wherebee]

3 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

It gets worse.

 

It's not the robinhood managers that should be in jail.  It's whoever put pressure on them.  

 

[Castlevania]

2 minutes ago, wherebee said:

It's not the robinhood managers that should be in jail.  It's whoever put pressure on them.  

 

Janet Yellen

[Gin]

God I love the internet... real fledgling democracy at play .

Wall street high flyers are a tad worried , they are losing their grip and not quite sure what to do about it...

The Chinese make people disappear for this sort of insurrection.

[Green Devil]

4 minutes ago, Gin said:

God I love the internet... real fledgling democracy at play .

Wall street high flyers are a tad worried , they are losing their grip and not quite sure what to do about it...

The Chinese make people disappear for this sort of insurrection.

 

 

The plebs are not happy. This could start a war.

 

[Ma2]

37 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

@Ma2 mentioned a JPM one i havent checked it yet, but he wasnt ecstatic about it, i might just grab out some of the nat res ones from  91 and go it alone.

This is the one I can get in my Standard Life work pension. It’s not bad but I preferred the ninety one offering as it spread wider eg across food, agriculture as well. 
JPM Natural Resources - Fund Factsheet https://www.fundslibrary.co.uk/FundsLibrary.DataRetrieval/Documents.aspx/?type=packet_fund_class_doc_factsheet_private&id=6e07e86d-db90-4c32-80ff-927705924437&user=StVNdqzRiH69iINOS1xRRTEZJOkjg941aL1FfByJnJbpZcIeCukx6Y%2fqwEGIGrRa&r=1

 

[leonardratso]

17 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

This is the one I can get in my Standard Life work pension. It’s not bad but I preferred the ninety one offering as it spread wider eg across food, agriculture as well. 
JPM Natural Resources - Fund Factsheet https://www.fundslibrary.co.uk/FundsLibrary.DataRetrieval/Documents.aspx/?type=packet_fund_class_doc_factsheet_private&id=6e07e86d-db90-4c32-80ff-927705924437&user=StVNdqzRiH69iINOS1xRRTEZJOkjg941aL1FfByJnJbpZcIeCukx6Y%2fqwEGIGrRa&r=1

 

hmm, looks not that wide of the mark to be honest, i need to see if i can get it, might not be able to.

I quite like my baglar agricultural fund as well, not that cheap OCF and not particularly stellar performance, but a good plodder, looks heavy on machinery, but its been a steady plodder.

https://bwebprod.blob.core.windows.net/assets/user/media/barings-global-agriculture-fund-factsheet.pdf

 

edit to add: yeah i can get that JPM one, ive cleared it with fimble and they are allowable.

[Bricormortis]

11 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

 

 

The plebs are not happy. This could start a war.

 

Thats great video tweet. 1.5 Million views too.

[Gin]

Just now, Bricormortis said:

Thats great video tweet. 1.5 Million views too.

That link kas stopped working..either crashed or Twitter has blocked it..Truth hurts it appears

 

[Noallegiance]

As fascinating as all this is it's derailed the thread quite heavily.

Creation of a Gamestonk thread?

[StrugglingMillennial]

Maybe the US is at the war and revolution part of the cycle.

 

[Chewing Grass]

3 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

As fascinating as all this is it's derailed the thread quite heavily.

Creation of a Gamestonk thread?

You are watching the death of money & investing as we know it, tomorrow will see more chaos.

[leonardratso]

16 minutes ago, Gin said:

That link kas stopped working..either crashed or Twitter has blocked it..Truth hurts it appears

 

looks ok to me.

 

OK, i wont mention it again, there is already another thread anyways, @Noallegiance is right, too much derailment.

[Sugarlips]

Succinct overview of where we are at now:

 

[DurhamBorn]

Whats going on is relevant to the thread because its classic end of cycle stuff.The actual affects on the market and the way it shows underlying sentiment.However probably not all the different tweets etc,maybe a roundup of events once a day while it runs? .The outcome of course is that all these young men need a woman and a house to bang her in and a job to pay for it.

Thats the real outcome of this and just another moment on the road to inflation.

These people are much better off than i was in the early 80s,but they dont feel like they are.What they actually lack is some certainty.

The market is actually doing its job here in a way.Shorts etc have turned the market away from where equity is used to grow a business and then shareholders are rewarded with growing dividends.Real returns instead of financial engineering is another part of the cycle as debt gets more expensive.These young people are the front end of that maybe.

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

First tick down in US production reported this week, bang on time:

One data point does not make a trend, but it's worth pointing out that the EIA has forecast 11mbpd for the rest of the year, and people are scratching their heads about this. As you know, I think that this is the beginning of the rig collapse kicking in. Demand concerns are still weighing on the price, and may well do for a while, but the physical market is still tightening, and I think it'll come to a head by late March. Crude drew down 9mbbl/day, and importantly, this is the season for crude stock builds:

 

Thats not a great graph, this is better:

Still above 5 year average, but shiuld reach it by Feb. Ole at Saxo is the only one who really picked up on it:

US oil demand is rapidly normalising:

4 week averages are better, and I have it at 890k bbl a day below the same 4 week period last year, or 4.4 %. Interestingly, jet fuel is steadily picking up. I sometimes forget that lockdowns are not a federal matter in the US, unlike here, and lots of individual states are coming out of restrictions. Florida long ago, California easing up, New York clearly has herd immunity, and lots of states never did anything but protect the vunerable. Again, I focus on the US because thats where the stuff gets priced and traded the most, as well as having the biggest upcoming supply problem. And the US is also likely to privide political cover for the UK then Europe to emerge from their caves. They'll want Biden to have the reflected glory (I'm looking at you, California).

This is what I expected on the supply side by now, and demand is above expectations. My macro view hasn't changed and I added some more oil today fwiw. I'm not interested in BP hitting 2.70 or whatever people talk about on LSE chatrooms etc, but the macro view is very clear to me, and I'm happy to wait for it to come to me. 

Dyodd as ever, these are just my thoughts.

Separately, I notice that Biden is reducing arms sales to Saudi and UAE while making overtures to Venezuela. So they will look for the heavy oil they need there first, but they will be surprised to find how long it takes to get going again.

 

 

You're not wrong on those graphs.Interesting that USA inventories are collapsing towards the 5 year average ahead of world inventories.

What with demand picking up,and the US coming out of lockdow-we could be dipping beneath the 5 yr by mid Feb.

I've been sizing some oilie calls to top up the ones we're running already,as they've already pulled back more than Brent has.Way more.
CHeers for th post CP