Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Mark Carney is on Bloomberg today talking about climate change etc. (Edit it's 11:30am)

The final report from the meeting mentioned below is here

 

 

Like iv said this is going to be huge,carbon offsets through tree planting.When green goes like a bubble but doesnt deliver as they expect they will use offsetting instead to make it all ok.Gas will be huge,carbon capture likely,and a surprise winner will be Methanol.

Iv got good friends who are lead engineers for companies who have got fantastic fuel cells for hydrogen ,even in planes and they are confident about it doing very well.

 

[Democorruptcy]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

Like iv said this is going to be huge,carbon offsets through tree planting.When green goes like a bubble but doesnt deliver as they expect they will use offsetting instead to make it all ok.Gas will be huge,carbon capture likely,and a surprise winner will be Methanol.

Iv got good friends who are lead engineers for companies who have got fantastic fuel cells for hydrogen ,even in planes and they are confident about it doing very well.

 

He said something about the carbon offset market being 300m but it should be 100bn

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

THANK f**** for that!

Personally I'd rather have £1K or so coming in monthly divis that f*** about trading that shite!

 

...Meanwhile back at the ranch, I @DurhamBorn @M S E Refugee AND other RMG holders are commmming in their panties as the stock is OVER £4 QUID! 

 

Are ya in on this @MrXxxx  ?

 

I sold just under half my holding at £4.25.I had a lot and there was a very big profit il keep the rest.I sold BAT and Imperial back near their tops in 17 after holding from the late 90s and im slowly building those stakes back up now as the capital has done a fantastic job and needs to go back home where it belongs.When i sold BAT not getting those divis reminded me of been a teenager when a date didnt turn up.Looking up the street,at your watch,then that horrible feeling when you accept she aint coming.Those divis have been a constant companion over the decades.If it really is a dieing industry so be it,hopefully there are plenty of divis to come before.I also liked the new guys strategy at Imperial.Pay down debt then share buy backs or special divis with the capital after that.If they can increase prices at 3% they should be able to keep the divi for decades.If not,well down we go together.Sometimes you just have to suck it and see.

 

[DurhamBorn]

23 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

He said something about the carbon offset market being 300m but it should be 100bn

He is right and it will be much bigger by 2030.When they see we still need oil and gas they will offset instead.Bp have already moved into buying a company that does credits for tree planting.I think that is a very shrewd move.I actually think Bp are playing to the audience ,but underneath are doing the right things.

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

He is right and it will be much bigger by 2030.When they see we still need oil and gas they will offset instead.Bp have already moved into buying a company that does credits for tree planting.I think that is a very shrewd move.I actually think Bp are playing to the audience ,but underneath are doing the right things.

Yes, I posted a link about it the other day and said 'plant a few trees... simples'

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

I sold just under half my holding at £4.25.I had a lot and there was a very big profit il keep the rest.I sold BAT and Imperial back near their tops in 17 after holding from the late 90s and im slowly building those stakes back up now as the capital has done a fantastic job and needs to go back home where it belongs.When i sold BAT not getting those divis reminded me of been a teenager when a date didnt turn up.Looking up the street,at your watch,then that horrible feeling when you accept she aint coming.Those divis have been a constant companion over the decades.If it really is a dieing industry so be it,hopefully there are plenty of divis to come before.I also liked the new guys strategy at Imperial.Pay down debt then share buy backs or special divis with the capital after that.If they can increase prices at 3% they should be able to keep the divi for decades.If not,well down we go together.Sometimes you just have to suck it and see.

Yep, top sliced my profits at 93%.  Not sure it's over but best to take some off the table.  Should have done that with BATS as now almost fully allocated last year and carrying an 8% loss.  Gapped down on the daily but had a "fake" buy for me on the monthly so close.  Similar for IMB and Japan Tobacco so will wait a little bit longer.  DYOR.

[janch]

Larry Fink of Blackrock speaking to the BBC:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55849898

".......starving polluting companies of cash too quickly would mean dramatic job losses.

If we all ran away from the hydrocarbons and everything, and if you ran away with most of those companies in the FTSE [100], the job loss in the United Kingdom would be extraordinary."

 

He sees a gradual transition so oilies will be OK alongside all the greenery.

[ThoughtCriminal]

12 minutes ago, janch said:

Larry Fink of Blackrock speaking to the BBC:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55849898

".......starving polluting companies of cash too quickly would mean dramatic job losses.

If we all ran away from the hydrocarbons and everything, and if you ran away with most of those companies in the FTSE [100], the job loss in the United Kingdom would be extraordinary."

 

He sees a gradual transition so oilies will be OK alongside all the greenery.

Oilies will be ok because most of the Green stuff is infeasible bollocks. 

 

 

[leonardratso]

heres my once a day gme post, still going but looks like the momentum is shot today, plus theres RH restrictions in place

I had PLTR in here as well but i quite like that one so i put in my tech pie and will increase it in line with the other stuff in there until it pops, NOK as well might actually be a good play with its 5G offerings, but for now the FU pie aint great but ill leave it, might win some, might sink to zero, not too bothered;

[Barnsey]

 

[Bobthebuilder]

I have been looking at the long term chart for BAT, struggling to pinpoint what changed in June 2017 to put them into what looks like a terminal decline. Was it part of a ftse sell off, change in regulation or was it money going into the rising FAANG stocks? The rise after the dot-com crash until 2017 had been stella, with blips through the 2008 crash but nothing like since 2017.

Edit, Was it the fed tightening and hence this thread?

[Democorruptcy]

7 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I have been looking at the long term chart for BAT, struggling to pinpoint what changed in June 2017 to put them into what looks like a terminal decline. Was it part of a ftse sell off, change in regulation or was it money going into the rising FAANG stocks? The rise after the dot-com crash until 2017 had been stella, with blips through the 2008 crash but nothing like since 2017.

They invested a lot in vaping then wobbles with it set in

https://ecigarettereviewed.com/fda-vaping-ban/

[ThoughtCriminal]

Impressive spike on the chart 

[Don Coglione]

6 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Impressive spike on the chart 

What does this mean, please?

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, janch said:

Larry Fink of Blackrock speaking to the BBC:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55849898

".......starving polluting companies of cash too quickly would mean dramatic job losses.

If we all ran away from the hydrocarbons and everything, and if you ran away with most of those companies in the FTSE [100], the job loss in the United Kingdom would be extraordinary."

 

He sees a gradual transition so oilies will be OK alongside all the greenery.

What he means is he sees massive profits from oilies ahead and wants part of it,so he needs to change the narrative to saving all those poor jobs and doing it slowly.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I have been looking at the long term chart for BAT, struggling to pinpoint what changed in June 2017 to put them into what looks like a terminal decline. Was it part of a ftse sell off, change in regulation or was it money going into the rising FAANG stocks? The rise after the dot-com crash until 2017 had been stella, with blips through the 2008 crash but nothing like since 2017.

Edit, Was it the fed tightening and hence this thread?

They got way ahead of themselves.The market worried they had far too much debt when they took over Reynolds,and i thought that as well.They were giving a yield of about 3.5% back then,too low for a low growth stocks with massive debts.

Since then they have been cut in half and debt has been falling nicely.They have got the balance sheet where they can pay off most debt as it comes due.They now yield 8% and their next gen products are now gaining traction and doing well.

 

[planit]

I know some people have called a top and the market has fallen nearly 8% from peak (FTSE) but this doesn't feel like a BK to me. More of a shake out.

There was a news story on the FT today saying New York is expecting to open up dining mid Feb, the stats are clearly looking very good for the UK now and we are past peak hospital.

I still think there will be a 'recovery in sight' boom and there is a lot of money sloshing around. Perhaps once the market has sucked everyone in we will see the BK.

 

If anyone can give me a good reason we are on the edge of a drop then I might take a more defensive position.

Selling oil stocks this week when the price of oil has not moved doesn't seem logical to me, the fall is just noise.

 

BTW I enjoyed this fun week, hedge funds getting over-confident deserve to go to the wall so the wider market can reappraise risk efficiently (it was a good kick up the arse). 

[MrXxxx]

6 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

THANK f**** for that!

Personally I'd rather have £1K or so coming in monthly divis that f*** about trading that shite!

 

...Meanwhile back at the ranch, I @DurhamBorn @M S E Refugee AND other RMG holders are commmming in their panties as the stock is OVER £4 QUID! 

 

Are ya in on this @MrXxxx  ?

 

Wish I was....was going to buy when they were 144 but was too cautious...did the same with gold!...when will I learn? :-(

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, planit said:

I know some people have called a top and the market has fallen nearly 8% from peak (FTSE) but this doesn't feel like a BK to me. More of a shake out.

There was a news story on the FT today saying New York is expecting to open up dining mid Feb, the stats are clearly looking very good for the UK now and we are past peak hospital.

I still think there will be a 'recovery in sight' boom and there is a lot of money sloshing around. Perhaps once the market has sucked everyone in we will see the BK.

 

If anyone can give me a good reason we are on the edge of a drop then I might take a more defensive position.

Selling oil stocks this week when the price of oil has not moved doesn't seem logical to me, the fall is just noise.

 

BTW I enjoyed this fun week, hedge funds getting over-confident deserve to go to the wall so the wider market can reappraise risk efficiently (it was a good kick up the arse). 

We can never be sure but all im seeing is more and more conformation the roadmap is intact and in motion.

One of the key themes of the cycle was that countries would onshore more and more production even if it meant higher prices and this weeks EU arguments over vaccines show that we are moving along that road nicely.Inflation needs a few things in modern economies.It needs liquidity filling the pipes to bursting,then it needs a pulse.

Another almost certain thing to this cycle is that the market will keep shaking out people who think +20% is all value/inflation stocks have when actually there is 200% to 300% coming including dividends in many areas.

I like to see falls as divis roll in and stocks that run up really hard can be top sliced.Plus the Scottish play looks primes for a big run up 

 

2 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Wish I was....was going to buy when they were 144 but was too cautious...did the same with gold!...when will I learn? :-(

Use ladders,removes the emotion as much as possible.

[TMM]

17 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Wish I was....was going to buy when they were 144 but was too cautious...did the same with gold!...when will I learn? :-(

You're not on your own! I've been reading the thread here and on TOS, if only...

[Errol]

First Majestic is the next target for WallStreetbets. They are discussing it in a variety of places.

[Talking Monkey]

31 minutes ago, Errol said:

First Majestic is the next target for WallStreetbets. They are discussing it in a variety of places.

That would be epic if they started going at silver miners

[AWW]

They should try to break COMEX. I think it's eminently do-able.

Just buy up silver contracts with the same expiry and stand for delivery.

[Noallegiance]

22 minutes ago, AWW said:

They should try to break COMEX. I think it's eminently do-able.

Just buy up silver contracts with the same expiry and stand for delivery.

As we know these controlling players monitor social media chatter, I'd expect such a move on the PM sphere to be stamped out quick-sharp.

[Bricks & Mortar]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

First Majestic is the next target for WallStreetbets. They are discussing it in a variety of places.

Robinhood has restricted AG, and SLV to only a single share per person.  I'm livid about it.  It cuts right into the idea of a fair market.
Declaration:  Been holding AG, and waiting for things to start moving as Biden admin starts talking electric cars and solar panels.  It happens, silver moves, and these jerks manipulate the market to reduce demand.  WTF!

https://investorplace.com/2021/01/robinhood-bans-reddit-stocks-wallstreetbets-gme-cciv-sndl-jagx-amc-nok-bb/