Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Bp has gone firmly under 270p now - currently 266.5p so not sure where the next bottom for that might be

Just topped up my BP in my ISA so next stop 150p

[Democorruptcy]

5 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Bp has gone firmly under 270p now - currently 266.5p so not sure where the next bottom for that might be

There seems to be a disconnect at the moment between -BP/RDSB prices and +Crude/Brent prices. Also a lot of oil firms in my watchlist are up, except XOM and COP which are slightly down and also reporting this week. Either somebody knows something about the results or it's a shake out?

[geordie_lurch]

RDSB is aso heading lower now too having gone through 1250 so maybe UK oil stocks are being sold to cover shorts that went wrong

I have managed to pick up some stocks I sold over the last few weeks for around 10% cheaper than I sold them for over the last few days but I might be done trying to squeeze much more out of things now. However I do have about 10% or so cash left waiting in my S&S ISA just in case one of my existing long term inflation stocks or a new one on my watch lists hits some ambitious limit orders

[Errol]

An example of what is on Twitter.

As far as I'm concerned, you can wake me up when Silver is well over $100 an ounce. Until then, there's not much to be excited about.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

I've rotated quite heavily from Silver miners to Oilies today. Also exited my meme stock positions just in time.

[leonardratso]

ive spun silver profits to gold myself

[Gin]

Tesla boss Elon Musk has grilled the co-founder of trading app Robinhood, Vladimir Tenev, about why it limited users buying shares in the US games retailer GameStop and other stocks.

 

Valdimir Tenev..:

“Robinhood stands for, you know, democratising access to stocks,” he said on Clubhouse.

“We want to give people the access… but we had no choice in this case, we had to conform to our regulatory capital requirements.”

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-55888782

[Hardhat]

I'm not selling silver yet, I took profits in the summer with silver at $29. This is a bit of a nothing move so far, apart from some of the juniors up 50-100% of course.

[Hancock]

How comes all Uraniam shares are up . Cameco which is was looking to buy is up 20%

uranium

[Starsend]

37 minutes ago, Hancock said:

How comes all Uraniam shares are up . Cameco which is was looking to buy is up 20%

uranium

I was also waiting to buy Cameco, some more silvers as well. All rocketed.

[Starsend]

Below is what the search on Hargreaves Lansdown returns for Gazprom.

Both in USD. First one shows a dividend yield of over 13%, second one over 7%?

Anybody know which one to buy? Is one preferable over the other?

 

GAZ	Gazprom Neft OJSC Level 1 ADR each Representing 5 Ordinary Shares
OGZD	PJSC Gazprom ADS each Representing 2 Ordinary Shares

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

I just checked my bullionvault acc, i'm up 61%, BUT, FFS I forgot to spend the £3K cash left in there on silver last March! what to do ...buy NOW?

 

NA...if i BUY now I'll put a curse on the silver price AND it will surely COLLAPSE ...and @DurhamBorn's son won't be able to pay off his mortgage BY this Friday at 4.27pm!

 

SO...let's have another CRAZY week...watch our silver miners go to the MOON ...whilst munching on popcorn!

 

Did you get Endeavour Silver ? ,more than trebled now,,silver miners running hard this early is lovely.Once there is too much fiat and no interest silver always has a cycle.Im really pleased the youngsters have latched on.One,because it makes us lots of profit,but also because it is showing them all what real money is.The CBs will be very worried about this.Whats happening is people swapping Fiat for silver.Paper market will be in big trouble is they are buying physical as they should be.People will demand delivery then it gets interesting 

[Ma2]

Interesting background from goldsilver.com -

 

"As many predicted with the social media chatter of a "silver squeeze", this weekend saw unusually high demand for precious metals, especially physical silver, causing many sites including ours to run low on stock or temporarily stop taking orders.

This rush on physical silver came at a time when the industry was already experiencing tight supply: a year of significantly higher than previous volumes which stretched many mints to their limits, the US Mint providing very limited allocations of its most popular product pending a redesign, and stocks of generally stretched thin as holders are simply not selling.

In fact, over the weekend we saw over 50 times the number of buys as sells. This is exacerbated because bid/ask spreads widen quickly in physical metals markets when supply thins out. Ask premiums rise rapidly with demand. Yet future mint allocations, which are often at pre-contracted premiums, slow the speed at which bid premiums rise and eventually pull asks back down toward them. We saw this last Spring and are seeing it again now.

This spike in demand quickly drove up spot prices, as well, jumping nearly 20% in the past week, much of that since Friday. There are many good fundamental reasons for silver prices to be higher than they have been, as Jeff Clark has often outlined.

However, moves this fast in premiums and spot prices can often reverse as quickly, so we encourage all of our customers to exercise good judgment and disciplined trading in volatile markets.

Regards,

Alex Daley, president of GoldSilver.com"

[Errol]

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Bp has gone firmly under 270p now - currently 266.5p so not sure where the next bottom for that might be

Silver miners have trebled from when my rubber band list was on the thread,markets arent linear,its too late once they move.Just buy the oilies and wait.Dont worry about every small move.The market whipsaws out most people.You have to have a roadmap and focus to make the real money.BP will give 200% to 300% from here for the cycle probably.Its where we are going that matters.

[geordie_lurch]

17 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Silver miners have trebled from when my rubber band list was on the thread,markets arent linear,its too late once they move.Just buy the oilies and wait.Dont worry about every small move.The market whipsaws out most people.You have to have a roadmap and focus to make the real money.BP will give 200% to 300% from here for the cycle probably.Its where we are going that matters.

Yep I agree @DurhamBorn and posted later this pm here saying I was just about done swapping things around but had managed to get upto another 10% worth of oilies and others from where things were a few weeks ago

[arrow]

From the FT, BP selling tight gas assets. One of the reader comments was that BP should sell its "dirty" stake in Rosneft.  BP better not capitulate to the sjw crowd and sell its Rosneft stake, otherwise what's the point in investing in the company.

 

"BP sells $2.6bn stake in Oman gas block to Thailand’s PTT

Disposal is part of $25bn divestment plan as oil major seeks funds to invest in clean energy

BP is aiming to cut production by 40 per cent under chief executive Bernard Looney

BP has agreed to sell a 20 per cent stake in an Oman gas block for $2.6bn to Thailand’s national oil company PTT as part of the UK energy major’s $25bn divestment programme. 

After the sale, which is expected to complete this year, BP will remain the operator of the block and hold a 40 per cent stake. Oman’s state oil company OQ and Malaysia’s Petronas are other shareholders. 

The company has had an exploration and production presence in Oman since 2007 when it signed the original production-sharing agreement for Block 61.

BP is targeting divestments of $25bn by 2025 as it streamlines its operations, raises cash and cuts production by 40 per cent under chief executive Bernard Looney. 

The company wants to generate funds to deploy into cleaner energy investments as part of a goal to become a net-zero emissions company by 2050.

BP will release its fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday, capping a brutal year as the coronavirus pandemic has battered the industry’s finances. At the end of the third quarter, BP’s debt stood at $40.4bn.

Block 61 covers close to 4,000km in central Oman and contains the largest tight gas development in the Middle East. This is where hydraulic fracturing is required to extract natural gas from reservoir rocks. The block has had two phases of field development — Khazzan, which began production in 2017, and Ghazeer in October.

The projects have a daily production capacity of 1.5bn cubic feet of gas, which is fed into Oman’s national grid, and more than 65,000 barrels of ultralight condensate oil. Total resources amount to 10.5tn cubic feet of gas.

“We are committed to BP’s business in Oman — this agreement allows us to remain at the heart of this world-class development while also making important progress in our global divestment programme,” said Mr Looney.

BP is also part of a production sharing agreement for another development, Block 77, and its trading business also buys liquefied natural gas from Oman LNG under a seven-year deal starting in 2018.

As part of its disposal plan, BP recently completed the $5bn divestment of its petrochemicals business to Jim Ratcliffe’s Ineos.

European oil majors have become more selective about where they invest as finances come under greater scrutiny and pressure mounts from investors and environmentalists to make greener investments. 

BP has identified Canadian oil sands projects and assets offshore Angola among those that are likely to be uneconomical under more conservative crude price scenarios.

The company plans a 10-fold increase in investment in low carbon energy to about $5bn each year by 2030, seeking a 20-fold increase in renewables capacity.

Giacomo Romeo at Jefferies said the deal, while raising cash for BP, was at odds with a broader strategy to stick with low cost, lower emissions hydrocarbon assets. “The divestment reduces BP exposure to low cost gas assets and it could be indicative of the difficult market conditions faced by upstream asset sellers,” he said."

[arrow]

33 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I did exactly that too.

If I can be nosy Cattle Prod, which oilies did you choose?

[Loki]

Are we going to have to try and contact BP management or something?  How is it possible their highly paid staff know less about this than a clever man from Durham who kindly started these threads for free?

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Yep I agree @DurhamBorn and posted later this pm here saying I was just about done swapping things around but had managed to get upto another 10% worth of oilies and others from where things were a few weeks ago

Iv sliced a lot of silver miners here and will finish topping up BAT and Imperial tomorrow and more oilies across the board.We have been lucky that the sectors havent all ran together as its amplified the gains so far by a large amount.The larger cap stocks wont provide the fireworks,but hopefully can run the full cycle up.

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

Are we going to have to try and contact BP management or something?  How is it possible their highly paid staff know less about this than a clever man from Durham who kindly started these threads for free?

They might want more access to Thailand for their trading business 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

They might want more access to Thailand for their trading business 

I see, thanks mate

[Bricormortis]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

They might want more access to Thailand for their trading business 

I am concerned they dont know what they are doing...I am interested in topping up my oiles at these prices, but I am in two minds about BP.

[Don Coglione]

2 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

I am concerned they dont know what they are doing...I am interested in topping up my oiles at these prices, but I am in two minds about BP.

I don't think that the lure of wokedom can be completely dismissed...

[DurhamBorn]

With BP watch their Russian stakes.If they hold them then they are playing to the gallery.Big oil likes to build relationships,and they might want to build one with Thailands state energy company.Green energy will be a bubble,but big oil knows the real danger is nuclear.They are happy to keep the world looking at windmills and solar,they can profit from that themselves while keeping nuclear away from the base load.