Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[goldbug9999]

3 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I take it this is another reason why house prices will fall at least in the south east, in addition to interest rate rises.

There are never going to be interest rate rises.

[UnconventionalWisdom]

On 14/02/2021 at 13:16, Lightscribe said:

I think this goes for most the country and would wipe out the younger generation in one swoop into negative equity and unaffordable payments

I'm mid 30's and whilst i could buy where i am (commuter town in kent), it would be a one bedroom flat. I think if it continues there will be a bigger problem as people will give up and stop working to pay a landlord's mortgage. If a generation sees the generation before still paying rent, they are going to take a different path. For existing mortgages they will prob just increase the length of the mortgage 

 

[Bobthebuilder]

5 minutes ago, Harley said:

I was happy renting, even missing out on the gains, given my belief in a HPC (having come back to the UK and seeing it as relatively insane).  But then they took interest rates to the floor and so I could not subsidise the rent with interest.  And of course those low rates (plus easy lending) just beget higher house prices.  Like being in a room with all the walls closing in together.  With hindsight I should have been more aggressive in moving into equities but this was my house, not investment, money.  Ended up buying cheap elsewhere and renovating, which took me on another (enjoyable) path.  B'tards and their bankrupt and stupid money games.  It's polluted everything.

I hear ya.  I threw the towel in and stopped fighting in 2012. Our very own @crashmonitor had an inflation adjusted thread on TOS, many posters did not like it as it was not nominal prices. I had some NSI linkers maturing and prices were -30% inflation wise. Same as you, I bought a probate and had a bit of work to do. Loads of plasterboard....

I am debt free now and trying to build this bloody pension.

[JMD]

46 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

There are never going to be interest rate rises.

I agree, but only for residential property I think. ...So to elaborate further - the ideal might be lots of vertical financial markets (thesis is less big banks, more government crytpo, etc, etc), with none of these more specialised markets 'too big to fail'. So for example maybe for our residential property market how about our benign government bringing back building societies by the back door, I've previously mooted a UK Freddie Mac type solution, but how about residential property bonds?, after all if we get subjected to forced bond bail-ins, who could possibly object to our money being directed into the 'cosy' housing sector, plus the bond sector itself will need all kinds of props going forward, just to keep it on life support.

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

You might find this article interesting:

https://justetf.com/uk/how-to/invest-in-commodities.html

Harley, I know that's not your own article, but I note that all the etfs on their list are synthetics. I remember you posting and explaining about being against taking on extra counter party risk etc. Do you still think this? I ask because I am still convinced of that argument, and so for example would only want to own the physical etfs, at least that is until way after any potential BK that still looms ominously ahead of us.

[AWW]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I should have been more aggressive in moving into equities but this was my house, not investment, money.

I made the same mistake here. I also used to take salary from my Ltd Co rather than dividends, believing that it was my moral duty to pay a reasonable amount of tax. What a mug I was.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I hear ya.  I threw the towel in and stopped fighting in 2012. Our very own @crashmonitor had an inflation adjusted thread on TOS, many posters did not like it as it was not nominal prices. I had some NSI linkers maturing and prices were -30% inflation wise. Same as you, I bought a probate and had a bit of work to do. Loads of plasterboard....

I am debt free now and trying to build this bloody pension.

I've worked and saved best part of £1/4 million a fucken unreal amount of money for someone who works with their hands. Was about to buy in early 2014, but whilst on a stopover on my way to a 6 week job i quickly checked the internet and saw that cunt Gidiot brought Help to Sell forward to start immediately as opposed to the following April. I knew the next 42 days of work would be taken by HPI. (and they were)

By the time i got back to England prices were already rocketing up, custody battle later that year which took a further year, with the result meaning i had to stay living in Yorkshire for a while longer meant i've kind of been forced to sit on the side lines, as i've no intention of living in Yorkybarland for life.

All that hard work and best part of £250k buys fuck all, when it would have got something acceptable in 2013. Same place will be £350k now.

 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, goldbug9999 said:

There are never going to be interest rate rises.

Isn't rising in interest rates what you need for gold to go to the moon.

ie. after the print like no tomorrow thus creating high inflation.

[Hancock]

52 minutes ago, AWW said:

I made the same mistake here. I also used to take salary from my Ltd Co rather than dividends, believing that it was my moral duty to pay a reasonable amount of tax. What a mug I was.

As a single parent i could have moved to a nice area, and then got a council house. I was a mug to think working away and leaving my toddler with grandparents was the best thing to do for her life.

Council house on my search for £350k
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/78075555#/

Every penny i earn over tax threshold will go into a pension as not funding this regime is the moral thing to do (that and the fact i can get 6/7k in tax credits if i play it this way)

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Council house on my search for £350k

What makes that price even more bat crazy is it's got tenants in it???????

Edit to add. IMO there is no value in the southwest any more, its all gone crazy.

[King Penda]

54 minutes ago, AWW said:

I made the same mistake here. I also used to take salary from my Ltd Co rather than dividends, believing that it was my moral duty to pay a reasonable amount of tax. What a mug I was.

It’s your duty to be a twat and game the system legally.I’ve discovered that I can cash my pension but I must come off universal credits a week or two before .then I can indeed buy a bigger house then claim again .the ultimate stunt would be to go 3k overdrawn then I could get 9k out .you have to let them know if you’ve got more than 6k.I’ve not looked into the concept of doing this over 4 yearsfrom a tax point of view would my personal allowance keep the government off it totally em. It’s only a small amount 34/35k .obviesly if I went after a bigger place I’d have to put my hovel up for sale and say after a few months and I had a buyer work on the principle it’s takes about 5/6 weeks to cash my pension and that would let me time comeing off universal credits 

[Hancock]

11 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

What makes that price even more bat crazy is it's got tenants in it???????

Edit to add. IMO there is no value in the southwest any more, its all gone crazy.

See what happens next week with regards taxation and landlords; the economy cant function if most earned income and borrowing continues to pour into property in one way or another. (as the last 2 decades have shown)

If i can get something like this for 300k ish

or this for 250k ish then i'll buy

[TNS]

25 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Council house on my search for £350k
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/78075555#/

Christ, makes some of the shite i've seen seem cheap! New kitchen and bathroom, 15k min straight away, not to mention the windows and doors.

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, Hancock said:

See what happens next week with regards taxation and landlords; the economy cant function if most earned income and borrowing continues to pour into property in one way or another. (as the last 2 decades have shown)

If i can get something like this for 300k ish

or this for 250k ish then i'll buy

Best of luck Mr Hancock. They are mental prices, even at your valuations. It's a crime it has come to this level, really terrible.

[harp]

7 minutes ago, Hancock said:

See what happens next week with regards taxation and landlords; the economy cant function if most earned income and borrowing continues to pour into property in one way or another. (as the last 2 decades have shown)

If i can get something like this for 300k ish

or this for 250k ish then i'll buy

Stick your money into Bitcoin for a couple of weeks then you'll be able to afford those.....or a shitty flat if it goes pearshaped!

[Hancock]

Just now, Bobthebuilder said:

Best of luck Mr Hancock. They are mental prices, even at your valuations. It's a crime it has come to this level, really terrible.

Yes thinking if i can get it for 250k ish with a 50K mortgage, will have 50k to chuck into a private school for the little, just need a bit of a break. Maybe see what comes up for auction.

Single parent fathers do things in style!

Just now, harp said:

Stick your money into Bitcoin for a couple of weeks then you'll be able to afford those.....or a shitty flat if it goes pearshaped!

I'd sooner Russian roulette!

[goldbug9999]

57 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Isn't rising in interest rates what you need for gold to go to the moon.

ie. after the print like no tomorrow thus creating high inflation.

Low IR + printing hand over fist == inflation of non fiat assets such a as gold and bitcoin. Its working out very nicely right now.

[JMD]

41 minutes ago, harp said:

Stick your money into Bitcoin for a couple of weeks then you'll be able to afford those.....or a shitty flat if it goes pearshaped!

Ok, I realise that your (mostly?) joking Harp. However as we speak BTC is motoring toward 60k dollars - so what if someone were to decide literally to 'bet their house' on BTC price this cycle, what would be your own personal sell price? ie There seems to be pattern - every halving price goes parabolic, then after 12-18 months it falls back dramatically, then rises slowly until the next halving, rinse repeat; I know, I know ...might not (prob won't) happen so neatly this time, plus institutional money element is a big unknown factor this time.                                                                                                                                                                                            I accept that the risk/reward element here is crazy and mental, but just for fun!?!, are you willing to make any prediction or guess regarding its top parabolic price?

[Harley]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Harley, I know that's not your own article, but I note that all the etfs on their list are synthetics. I remember you posting and explaining about being against taking on extra counter party risk etc. Do you still think this? I ask because I am still convinced of that argument, and so for example would only want to own the physical etfs, at least that is until way after any potential BK that still looms ominously ahead of us.

Good question.  I assume all will be synthetic except possibly for some precious metals, including palladium and platinum.  Hence one reason people prefer the equities.  Plus some equities (e.g. BHP) pay divs.  So it goes with the terrain.  I got burnt on a general commodity fund once so am cautious.  i need to rework the article and may go for a small punt for part of my hard asset allocation, but will mainly be in the equities.  And probably individual equities unless I can find a worthy ETF or fund.

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

As a single parent i could have moved to a nice area, and then got a council house. I was a mug to think working away and leaving my toddler with grandparents was the best thing to do for her life.

Council house on my search for £350k
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/78075555#/

Every penny i earn over tax threshold will go into a pension as not funding this regime is the moral thing to do (that and the fact i can get 6/7k in tax credits if i play it this way)

Are you not tempted to bugger off abroad for good? 

 

I've seen far too many unbelievably cheap houses in Europe to ever buy anything again in this joke of a country. 

[Barnsey]

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

I've worked and saved best part of £1/4 million a fucken unreal amount of money for someone who works with their hands. Was about to buy in early 2014, but whilst on a stopover on my way to a 6 week job i quickly checked the internet and saw that cunt Gidiot brought Help to Sell forward to start immediately as opposed to the following April. I knew the next 42 days of work would be taken by HPI. (and they were)

By the time i got back to England prices were already rocketing up, custody battle later that year which took a further year, with the result meaning i had to stay living in Yorkshire for a while longer meant i've kind of been forced to sit on the side lines, as i've no intention of living in Yorkybarland for life.

All that hard work and best part of £250k buys fuck all, when it would have got something acceptable in 2013. Same place will be £350k now.

 

Problem is, £350k is pocket money for many of those selling up in HK...

Why Britain's anti-immigration politicians are opening the doors to thousands of Hong Kongers

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/20/uk/uk-hong-kong-bno-scheme-intl-gbr-hkr/index.html

The visa does not account for the most vulnerable Hong Kongers: young pro-democracy protesters, like Malcolm, who were born after 1997 and are therefore not eligible. But it is nonetheless remarkable in its scope -- in a city of 7.5 million people, 5.2 million Hong Kongers and their dependents are eligible for it.

[Hancock]

19 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Are you not tempted to bugger off abroad for good? 

 

I've seen far too many unbelievably cheap houses in Europe to ever buy anything again in this joke of a country. 

If made an offer to the mother of kid recently but its not happening. Looks like im stuck in HMP England.

1 minute ago, Barnsey said:

Problem is, £350k is pocket money for those selling up in HK

Why Britain's anti-immigration politicians are opening the doors to thousands of Hong Kongers

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/20/uk/uk-hong-kong-bno-scheme-intl-gbr-hkr/index.html

The visa does not account for the most vulnerable Hong Kongers: young pro-democracy protesters, like Malcolm, who were born after 1997 and are therefore not eligible. But it is nonetheless remarkable in its scope -- in a city of 7.5 million people, 5.2 million Hong Kongers and their dependents are eligible for it.

My brother lives there, he reckons not too many will take up the offer.

[Barnsey]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

My brother lives there, he reckons not too many will take up the offer.

From the article:

The Home Office estimates that up to 153,700 BN(O) holders will arrive in the country this year -- and estimates they could bring £2.9 billion ($4.1 bn) into the economy over five years.

[M S E Refugee]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

If made an offer to the mother of kid recently but its not happening. Looks like im stuck in HMP England.

My brother lives there, he reckons not too many will take up the offer.

 

3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

If made an offer to the mother of kid recently but its not happening. Looks like im stuck in HMP England.

My brother lives there, he reckons not too many will take up the offer.

Why would anyone want to leave a totalitarian regime to move to another one with shit weather.

[harp]

30 minutes ago, JMD said:

Ok, I realise that your (mostly?) joking Harp. However as we speak BTC is motoring toward 60k dollars - so what if someone were to decide literally to 'bet their house' on BTC price this cycle, what would be your own personal sell price? ie There seems to be pattern - every halving price goes parabolic, then after 12-18 months it falls back dramatically, then rises slowly until the next halving, rinse repeat; I know, I know ...might not (prob won't) happen so neatly this time, plus institutional money element is a big unknown factor this time.                                                                                                                                                                                            I accept that the risk/reward element here is crazy and mental, but just for fun!?!, are you willing to make any prediction or guess regarding its top parabolic price?

To be honest I have no idea. But if there's a BK then it would crash like everything else I'm sure. I'm totally relaxed this time round because I took my stake money and then the same again out. I really don't care what it does now. BUT for sure it has been my best investment ever. I'm still down on my reflation shares probably because back when the thread started and the likes of CNA, VOD, BT, etc etc had fallen, general consenses was if there was a market crash they would unlikely fall much further. They did and we haven't had the BIG BK yet. I pretty much froze last March and swore that I'd had enough of these dogshit shares
But I threw in a fair chunk into Bitcoin. It's saved my bacon. My initial stake money and 100% profit is now sitting in my HL account since 2 weeks ago. I'll leave the rest to do it;s thing. But the next Bitcoin I'll sell will be £50k and every £5k there after. I'll always hold at least a couple though and would buy back in rather than buying PM's.Had enough of david cunter so sold all my PM's weeks ago to buy more Bitcoin.

No one knows the future and listening to others who think they do is bollocks. When does a contrarian become mainstream thinking? All I've done is spray and pray. Bit of this bit of that and a lot of bitcoin.