Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, marceau said:

It is not really an ownership issue or an enforcement one, it's an operational one. The system cannot maintain itself and degrades, eventually critical areas break down. 

The Soviet system couldn't enforce anything. 'Ownership' post Gorbachev was settled with tanks, AKs and assassinations. External powers installed the oligarchs and the assets were sold off for a handful of roubles while people starved or fled. 

In that case what I mean is to be able to escape it for long enough until it collapses, so ~80% perish with the system

[marceau]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

In that case what I mean is to be able to escape it for long enough until it collapses, so ~80% perish with the system

If the US falls over, I'm not sure it will be possible to escape the impact anywhere on earth. Plus most people will still be there afterwards, it's the ambitions and the ideology that perish.

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, marceau said:

If the US falls over, I'm not sure it will be possible to escape the impact anywhere on earth. Plus most people will still be there afterwards, it's the ambitions and the ideology that perish.

I agree the impact will be felt worldwide, but I think it's exactly because the ambitions and the ideology went a long time ago.  Like with macro-economics for example, the scale of things.  I don't think Europe ever recovered from the world wars.

You can't just send the best and bravest off to die in a mechanised killing machine and arbitrarily declare a victory. 

This goes for both 'sides'.  There were no winners.

[JMD]

4 hours ago, AWW said:

Exactly this. It's not just young people either. All around me are people spending the best part of a grand a month to park a brand new Merc/Tesla/Audi on the drive. They look down on our 11 year old Golf estate, but we all get where we need to go. I've just bought an Ifor Williams BV64e trailer for camping and tip runs rather than run a massive car. I rent it out for £100 a week (it cost me a grand). How's that for yield?!

I have friends who've spent thousands changing their car to avoid paying £12.50 ULEZ twice a month.

Without ZIRP, changing your car every year would never have been a thing anyway.

Your yield on renting out your trailer is very good especially without having any business overheads. I think rental companies operate on similar margins tbh - however they have all manner of costs to absorb on top.                                                                Anyway if 'xxx as a service', renting/subscription model instead of actually owning is to become more pervasive from now on, it got me wondering if people on the thread have ideas on what similar items/products could be bought then rented out? Perhaps some here are doing this already. Plus I'm thinking choosing the 'right item' could be very lucrative to rent, and not necessarily with a big hassle factor attached.

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, JMD said:

Your yield on renting out your trailer is very good especially without having any business overheads. I think rental companies operate on similar margins tbh - however they have all manner of costs to absorb on top.                                                                Anyway if 'xxx as a service', renting/subscription model instead of actually owning is to become more pervasive from now on, it got me wondering if people on the thread have ideas on what similar items/products could be bought then rented out? Perhaps some here are doing this already. Plus I'm thinking choosing the 'right item' could be very lucrative to rent, and not necessarily with a big hassle factor attached.

Houses.  Can't go wrong with bricks and mortar 

 

 

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, JMD said:

Your yield on renting out your trailer is very good especially without having any business overheads. I think rental companies operate on similar margins tbh - however they have all manner of costs to absorb on top.                                                                Anyway if 'xxx as a service', renting/subscription model instead of actually owning is to become more pervasive from now on, it got me wondering if people on the thread have ideas on what similar items/products could be bought then rented out? Perhaps some here are doing this already. Plus I'm thinking choosing the 'right item' could be very lucrative to rent, and not necessarily with a big hassle factor attached.

Not hassle-free, but one of my old schoolmates rents out tractors, ploughs, bailers etc to farmers and small holders. He's been doing it most of his life, he used to collect the Dinky model ones when he was a kid.

[marceau]

14 minutes ago, Loki said:

I agree the impact will be felt worldwide, but I think it's exactly because the ambitions and the ideology went a long time ago.  Like with macro-economics for example, the scale of things.  I don't think Europe ever recovered from the world wars.

You can't just send the best and bravest off to die in a mechanised killing machine and arbitrarily declare a victory. 

This goes for both 'sides'.  There were no winners.

Europe didn't recover from the World Wars, and neither did we. What replaced it (and the UK) were US or Soviet vassal states subjected to heavy ideological conditioning. Most European cultural & ideological elements of Russian life were destroyed by Bolshevism. The asiatic ideology of the USSR then went the way of the dodo with Gorbachev.

The ambitions and ideology of the modern US have been in near 100% control ever since. This is not the same as the Europe-oriented US that fought for independance, wrote the constitution, or fought the civil war; that died at Ellis Island. The new US ideology is all the horrible political, economic, racial and social trash everybody on this site despises.

That is the sytem that may no longer be able to sustain itself. Perhaps if it falls over, the other side might see the remergence of Europe & Britain, or perhaps we go Mad Max and I spend my remaining years driving round the British wastelands in arseless leather chaps. 

[Joncrete Cungle]

3 minutes ago, marceau said:

I spend my remaining years driving round the British wastelands in arseless leather chaps. 

So it WAS you on the carpark of my closest ASDA earlier today?

[Loki]

@marceau I agree.  It says so much for what we lost, that the remains of it have lasted up until now.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, marceau said:

My thinking is Bush 2 = Brezhnev, Biden = Chernenko. Either way the front man is just a sign of decay, the real rot lies beneath due to the anti-reality nature of the apparatchiks. The human material required to maintain the system simply isn't there.

I like your thesis but I think events are already in motion. I would say the West is where the USSR was back in the 80's. Hypernormalisation is a (over) long documentary, describing the fake world we all now inhabit, and is available on YouTube. It's Wiki entry sums the theory up pretty well...    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/HyperNormalisation

[CannonFodder]

[marceau]

44 minutes ago, JMD said:

I like your thesis but I think events are already in motion. I would say the West is where the USSR was back in the 80's. Hypernormalisation is a (over) long documentary, describing the fake world we all now inhabit, and is available on YouTube. It's Wiki entry sums the theory up pretty well...    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/HyperNormalisation

 

Events are certainly well advanced and the 80s does seem like the best comparison. The (hopefully) original point of my posts is that interlopers (Bolsheviks in Russia, 'globalists' in the US), having captured their respective systems, then used those systems to produce an ideological generation incapable of maintaining the thing they had captured. The ideological conditioning required a rejection of the norms associated with the captured nation, with advancement dependant on ever further ideological commitment at the expense of practical reality.

The USSR could not, therefore, have produced and promoted another Stalin or Lenin (products of Czarist Russia), their own systems would have made it impossible. Likewise the US cannot produce and promote another Eisenhower or FDR, for example; only dross like the Clintons, Bushes & Bidens and the legion of useless clowns that exist below them. Competance and practical ability are rejected as part of the political process, so the system cannot perceive its problems, let alone remedy them, and down we go.

I don't like Curtis at all. Just a series of non-sequiturs with spooky music imo. 

[JMD]

3 minutes ago, marceau said:

 

Events are certainly well advanced and the 80s does seem like the best comparison. The (hopefully) original point of my posts is that interlopers (Bolsheviks in Russia, 'globalists' in the US), having captured their respective systems, then used those systems to produce an ideological generation incapable of maintaining the thing they had captured. The ideological conditioning required a rejection of the norms associated with the captured nation, with advancement dependant on ever further ideological commitment at the expense of practical reality.

The USSR could not, therefore, have produced and promoted another Stalin or Lenin (products of Czarist Russia), their own systems would have made it impossible. Likewise the US cannot produce and promote another Eisenhower or FD, for example; only dross like the Clintons, Bushes & Bidens and the legion of useless clowns that exist below them. Competance and practical ability are rejected as part of the political process, so the system cannot perceive, let alone remedy, its problems and down we go.

I don't like Curtis at all. Just a series of non-sequiturs with spooky music imo. 

Yep, I agree that Adam Curtis is a pompous beeboid type. However the term Hypernormalisation is from a book- 'Everything was forever, until it was no more', by an ex russian dissident.                                                              I agree with what you say above. Ultimately I'm just after a framework that works for me ('a myth to live by', if you will), else I fear I'll go mad! ...especially what with recent 'interesting' events ...oh, the framework also has to chime with my investment decisions/style - I tell myself this will prove that I have at least remained grounded with reality, hypernormalised or not?!

[AWW]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

what similar items/products could be bought then rented out? Perhaps some here are doing this already. Plus I'm thinking choosing the 'right item' could be very lucrative to rent, and not necessarily with a big hassle factor attached.

I rent out my camera gear, drone and guitars on Fat Llama. Although the site takes a quarter of the rental fee, they do vet renters and insure your stuff.

[Axeman123]

25 minutes ago, AWW said:

I rent out my camera gear, drone and guitars on Fat Llama. Although the site takes a quarter of the rental fee, they do vet renters and insure your stuff.

Surely mechanical stuff takes a beating though? Even if there are no obvious marks etc it must end up like a mini-cab, just from people treating it like one compared to their own.

[Errol]

8 hours ago, marceau said:

Because the US is becoming increasingly aggressive and irrational in Ukraine. The Russians aren't bluffing when they say they won't tolerate it, but there don't seem to be any adults at the controls in the US (or here) who recognise it. Like I said, it's insane behaviour.

As a result things that were previously being tolerated as part of the 'game' are now being cracked down on. Supposedly impartial NGOs, media organisations, charities, 'democrats' like Navalny, it's all being switched off. You can't play a delicate game of diplomacy when your opponent is a drooling gibbering lunatic, and that's what American (and by extension UK) foreign policy has become.

Agree with this completely. Great post.

[Funn3r]

8 hours ago, marceau said:

Because the US is becoming increasingly agressive and irrational in Ukraine. The Russians aren't bluffing when they say they won't tolerate it, but there don't seem to be any adults at the controls in the US (or here) who recognise it. Like I said, it's insane behaviour.

As a result things that were previously being tolerated as part of the 'game' are now being cracked down on. Supposedly impartial NGOs, media organisations, charities, 'democrats' like Navalny, it's all being switched off. You can't play a delicate game of diplomacy when your opponent is a drooling gibbering lunatic, and that's what American (and by extension UK) foreign policy has become.

Of course we discuss over and over what currently might be the bizarre reality of the US Presidency. I believe Russia knows for a fact and not an internet rumour that Joe Biden does not have access to the US nuclear weapons system. So after endlessly trying and failing to issue polite warnings to NATO, why not just go ahead with pushing back?

[Axeman123]

33 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Of course we discuss over and over what currently might be the bizarre reality of the US Presidency. I believe Russia knows for a fact and not an internet rumour that Joe Biden does not have access to the US nuclear weapons system. So after endlessly trying and failing to issue polite warnings to NATO, why not just go ahead with pushing back?

It is worth noting, iirc, that there isn't a "button". The "football" brief case is an encrypted satelite phone to relay a spoken message, including spoken codes, to another man. One or more of multiple people (cabinet members etc) have to confirm over the phone that the person giving the order is who they claim to be. There is an implicit assumption that person could decline to participate if the launch order was invalid or the person issuing it was insane. The man at the other end of the line has to securely phone other people in a chain to actually initiate a launch. The standard protocol already includes many safeguards against a rogue or false order. Other than some of those people around Biden saying privately that they wouldn't go along with ordering a launch under any forseeable scenario, I doubt any special precautions have been implemented.

[AWW]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

Surely mechanical stuff takes a beating though? Even if there are no obvious marks etc it must end up like a mini-cab, just from people treating it like one compared to their own.

No sign of that happening so far. The sort of person who cares enough to rent a camera lens or a (videography) drone is likely to look after it, I feel. With the guitars, I stipulate they are for recording only. Nobody seems to have gigged one yet.

Not fussed about marks on the trailer, it's already paid for itself.

[invalid]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its also the way they can keep people working.If you have to lease rather than buy then you need a steady income because if you lose that you lose everything the next week.Once my old diesel Pugs were paid for they could sit on my drive for nothing until i needed them.I see little pushback from the young though,they seem mostly like lambs to the slaughter.

 

 

This is exactly what its all about.

Even if by some marvel of technology we could all be millionaires tomorrow we still need workers, all the way from bin men* to brain surgeons we need workers and they are all equally essential for modern life.

The metal chains are old fashioned and long gone. We are now wage slaves.

 

 

* you could argue that bin men (refuse collection technicians?) save more lives than brain surgeons....

[Joncrete Cungle]

1 minute ago, invalid said:

 

 

This is exactly what its all about.

Even if by some marvel of technology we could all be millionaires tomorrow we still need workers, all the way from bin men* to brain surgeons we need workers and they are all equally essential for modern life.

The metal chains are old fashioned and long gone. We are now wage slaves.

 

 

* you could argue that bin men (refuse collection technicians?) save more lives than brain surgeons....

Wage slaves, debt slaves or both?

[Sugarlips]

Happy New Year 

 

 

[Mapper]

Can @DurhamBorn or anybody else clarify the meaning of "distribution cycle"?

From the beginning of this thread I have not really grasped what it means exactly.

A while back I heard David Hunter in an interview refer to the term. He said the next cycle would be characterised in part by stocks that had made highs this cycle being sold off bit by bit. He said they would trend lower over the long term but with occasional bids higher. At these times long-term holders would see an opportunity to bail out. He said that was a "distribution cycle".

The other day I heard Peter Schiff describe the same mechanism for long-term holders of bit coin pumping and dumping in order to realise gains. He referred to that as "distribution".

The way DB has mentioned it, I had it in mind that it was more complex than just the above. That it was a process of capital moving from unproductive assets to productive ones. The reasons for that? Again, I am not clear. Is it to do with rising interest rates favouring capital supporting more productive endeavours? ie. If money is costly it ought to be put to good use?

[WICAO]

2021 annualised return for my total wealth, including a large amount of cash for a home build, was 8.3%.  So with RPI at 7.1% my real return was a miserly 1.2%.  Crazy times...

[Alifelessbinary]

2 hours ago, WICAO said:

2021 annualised return for my total wealth, including a large amount of cash for a home build, was 8.3%.  So with RPI at 7.1% my real return was a miserly 1.2%.  Crazy times...

Compared to most people who are earning 0.1% in a savings account (-7%) 8.3% is a solid result. If my returns beat inflation over the next few years I’ll see that as a huge success. After the huge gains of the last few years, wealth growth is going to be tricky, but wealth preservation is my main focus this year, as inflation is clearly in the system and things are going to get messy.