Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

The green agenda has always been to make energy expensive. Doing so through taxes is deeply unpopular. Destroying supply for years ahead is just the same play through deception. Even the silly windmills can be seen as just a bonfire of taxpayers cash, so they can say "lookhow much we have invested in energy!".

Imagine if all money wasted on renewables had gone into new nukes instead, we could have zero fossil fuels in our electric grid by now. With enough nuclear generation capacity electric central heating could even be viable.

Commies funded by China worked their way into civil service and media through the uni system them slowly made sure more lefties got on the state teat.Its about moving wealth from the west to the east.The Labour party should of been the protection from this and reformed the state,but they simply made it worse and helped China.When i go out in Durham i see a lot of these types from the uni,the lads are usually a 1 out of 10 in the looks department and are sucked in as the only way to be involved with women and their woke slogans when really, in the end they will go the way it always goes,getting their back ends knocked out by real men and turning the heating on.

 

[leonardratso]

hmm getting your back end knocked out by real men sounds a bit woke, they should take it like a man.

a greek man if possible.

aha you mean the wimmin? aha.

ees no rat, ees hamster.

 

[Axeman123]

5 hours ago, spygirl said:

Putin is 69.

A cheap shot from me, and obviously this is just a staged event, but could you imagine Brandon doing this?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10355825/Putin-scores-seven-goals-Belaruss-Lukashenko-scores-two-18-7-ice-hockey-victory.html

[DoINeedOne]

@Cattle Prod  @DurhamBorn  @sancho panza @Anyone got any views on Brazilian Petrobras currently reading a report on them will post later any interesting info but wondered if anyone had any views on them

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Commies funded by China worked their way into civil service and media through the uni system them slowly made sure more lefties got on the state teat.Its about moving wealth from the west to the east.The Labour party should of been the protection from this and reformed the state,but they simply made it worse and helped China.When i go out in Durham i see a lot of these types from the uni,the lads are usually a 1 out of 10 in the looks department and are sucked in as the only way to be involved with women and their woke slogans when really, in the end they will go the way it always goes,getting their back ends knocked out by real men and turning the heating on.

 

One of the main instigator organisations is called ‘Common Purpose’ and it’s been injected into all major institutions at the top to steer direction at the root level.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2486829/amp/GUY-ADAMS-This-non-profit-organisation-like-Lefts-old-boy-network.html

This has happened in all sectors from Home Office and civil service to the legislative/court sectors to the police and emergency services.

They provide ‘fast stream’ initiatives to get key scheme members in positions of influence. (I know this because I’ve witnessed it first hand, as have colleagues elsewhere in the country)

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/civil-service-fast-stream

https://commonpurpose.org

Links to China

https://commonpurpose.org/blog/archive/common-purpose-student-experiences-partner-with-all-china-youth-federation/

China buying influence in UK private schools

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9282617/amp/British-private-institutions-bought-Chinese-firms.html

Basically whilst the government has been making sure ever more props in place to keep everybody busy on how much their houses were worth and how many more they could buy, the roadmap ahead has been cemented in.

You see China won without ever firing a shot. It used the West’s own greed and economic decimation by feeding off its younger generation against them, they’ll have no land, ownership, wealth or pensions.

Reliance on UBI government handouts combined with AI and automation will be their only option in a form of communism dressed as socialism but in reality, neo-feudalism.

[Axeman123]

A glimpse behind the curtain on DHs pullback target for the S&P500:

 

[Barnsey]

Inflate the debt away and incentivise resilient onshoring OR .....

 

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

One of the main instigator organisations is called ‘Common Purpose’ and it’s been injected into all major institutions at the top to steer direction at the root level.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2486829/amp/GUY-ADAMS-This-non-profit-organisation-like-Lefts-old-boy-network.html

This has happened in all sectors from Home Office and civil service to the legislative/court sectors to the police and emergency services.

They provide ‘fast stream’ initiatives to get key scheme members in positions of influence. (I know this because I’ve witnessed it first hand, as have colleagues elsewhere in the country)

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/civil-service-fast-stream

https://commonpurpose.org

Links to China

https://commonpurpose.org/blog/archive/common-purpose-student-experiences-partner-with-all-china-youth-federation/

China buying influence in UK private schools

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9282617/amp/British-private-institutions-bought-Chinese-firms.html

Basically whilst the government has been making sure ever more props in place to keep everybody busy on how much their houses were worth and how many more they could buy, the roadmap ahead has been cemented in.

You see China won without ever firing a shot. It used the West’s own greed and economic decimation by feeding off its younger generation against them, they’ll have no land, ownership, wealth or pensions.

Reliance on UBI government handouts combined with AI and automation will be their only option in a form of communism dressed as socialism but in reality, neo-feudalism.

Bad form to quote self etc, but found the link I was searching for earlier in this sky.au news report at the time that quickly disappeared under the radar of mainstream UK news

https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/leak-reveals-chinese-communist-party-members-working-in-aust-uk-and-us-consulates/video/927cac8657be120f1eb7c2cd65fd0a96
 

 

[Transistor Man]

10 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Now *that* would be one hell of a Black Swan. I wonder how the succession would play out. Is there any case to be made for "orderly"? Whoever comes through needs to have the backing of the oligarchs *and* the strength to keep them in line.

2008-12 president Dmitry Medvedev, back again?

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Bad form to quote self etc, but found the link I was searching for earlier in this sky.au news report at the time that quickly disappeared under the radar of mainstream UK news

https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/leak-reveals-chinese-communist-party-members-working-in-aust-uk-and-us-consulates/video/927cac8657be120f1eb7c2cd65fd0a96
 

 

The Chinese were not responsible for QE and ZIRP, and they had no money to influence the west in the early 80s when the UK/US etc ... decided to shutdown much of their manufacturing base and ship it off to Asia.

Our government have always been totalitarian commies, looking to enrich themselves by fucking over the plebs of this country ... maybe there was a small window from the late 40s to the early 80s when this didn't happen so blatantly.

 

 

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Our government have always been totalitarian commies, looking to enrich themselves by fucking over the plebs of this country ... maybe there was a small window from the late 40s to the early 80s when this didn't happen so blatantly.

That's because they  always worried about proper communism during that period after WW2 when the UK was full of men with basic military training under the age of 60.

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, Transistor Man said:

2008-12 president Dmitry Medvedev, back again?

I don't know the details, but I remember reading that was Putin trying to step-back and finding he couldn't trust or rely on anyone. After that he is a lifer.

His rumoured Billions would be seized as corrupt by any subsequent regime (for itself), whereas if he dies in office and gets the state funeral etc everyone will be clamouring to continue his proud legacy. 

[Axeman123]

7 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

That's because they  always worried about proper communism during that period after WW2 when the UK was full of men with basic military training under the age of 60.

People often want to link everything going bad back to the closing of the gold window in 1971, and that is valid, but I wonder how much impact the ending of national service had on governments willingness to walk all over the public's will.

[JMD]

This article does a good job explaining the current Covid Pantomime in the context of the oft quoted coming economic utopia whereby '...we will own nothing and be happy'. It is a long article, and mainly deals with the covid science which is interesting in itself, but what really grabbed me was the prediction that the service model will in future replace the physical ownership of goods etc. Most are familiar with software-as-a-service but the author raises the frightening prospect of vaccine-as-a-service...!!!, plus everything in-between including Netflix and Spotify or those expensive EVs. The subscription service model is already pervasive, and may eventually tip us into a new form of serfdom.                                                                       ...regardless of whether or not there are deeper hidden forces behind covid, the author settles on a less conspiratorial frame of reference with politicians 'never letting a crisis go to waste' and so the prospect of authoritarianism control eminating from both a health and financial crises was simply to good an opportunity to miss.                                                                                                        https://www.juliusruechel.com/2021/09/the-snake-oil-salesmen-and-covid-zero.html

[jamtomorrow]

6 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I see it the other way round, Putin has the cards and is running rings around our Dear Leaders. He has no debt, divested from dollar system, backed the Ruble with gold effectively, and sits on the commodity mother lode going into a commodity cycle. I don't think he's desperate, he's not trying to persuade his people to eat bugs because of upcoming food shortages.

He's fucking around with Ukraine because the west and NATO are weak. He wants a buffer. From a Russian pov They have been invaded about 5 times by Europe, and see them as an agressor, not the other way round.

The geopolitical tensions in my view are because of weakness in the USA (Biden). Note that Finland just bought 64 F35s, the first ones right on Russia's border. They don't trust the yanks any more.

And again, Russia has broken no long term contracts to my knowledge. They just didn't send the spot market top ups Europe had become used too. He even told them to sign more contracts!

Look I'm no Putin fanboy, Im not ignoring the human rights stuff and his agents running around with radioactive isotopes where my kid could be playing with his mates. But compared to our leaders, he us streets ahead, if you see through the propaganda. Our propaganda, that is.

Russia certainly has the strongest geopolitical hand they've had in generations, thanks in large part to how Putin has steered them thus far. What's strange is how the hand is now being overtly *overplayed*, and in a terrific rush. Like you say, they are economically *very* far from "uncomfortable".

I maintain something's up. The swagger has gone, and leadership suddenly look and sound embattled. Which is madness, given the cards they're holding, and therefore worth trying to understand better.

It's tempting to assume Putin himself is somehow unnassailable within and inseparable from the Russsian system of power, as it stands today.

His place within that system is certainly strong, but it is also fragile. The oligarchs are accustomed to - and maybe now *expect*? - regular "wins". Is he vulnerable if he gets bogged down in Ukraine and the EU shrugs off the spot market boycott? His position in the system relies on the delicate equilibrium of power between him and the oligarchs, and he won't survive long if he becomes vulnerable.

Compare that to the Western system where wounded leaders often limp around for months or even years before something or someone puts them out of their misery.

I'm no fan of Putin either, but I worry about how a post-Putin world looks because of how Russia's renewed vigour has usefully crowded out a slide towards US-China bipolarity.

[planit]

16 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

What's strange is how the hand is now being overtly *overplayed*, and in a terrific rush. Like you say, they are economically *very* far from "uncomfortable".

I maintain something's up. The swagger has gone, and leadership suddenly look and sound embattled.

I must have missed something, could you point me to the source of this impression or what you are referring to?

 

My cursory glance impression was that Putin holds all the cards and the west have been causing all their own problems. It is Europe that are pushed for time as they need gas but don't want to certify a pipeline they allowed to be built. All the invasion talk is just beating of chests and posturing around the issues that need to be dealt with.

 

EU and UK are doing the same thing with Northern Ireland (I think UK holds the strongest position here but EU are trying to scare with threats)

[Don Coglione]

21 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Russia certainly has the strongest geopolitical hand they've had in generations, thanks in large part to how Putin has steered them thus far. What's strange is how the hand is now being overtly *overplayed*, and in a terrific rush. Like you say, they are economically *very* far from "uncomfortable".

I maintain something's up. The swagger has gone, and leadership suddenly look and sound embattled. Which is madness, given the cards they're holding, and therefore worth trying to understand better.

It's tempting to assume Putin himself is somehow unnassailable within and inseparable from the Russsian system of power, as it stands today.

His place within that system is certainly strong, but it is also fragile. The oligarchs are accustomed to - and maybe now *expect*? - regular "wins". Is he vulnerable if he gets bogged down in Ukraine and the EU shrugs off the spot market boycott? His position in the system relies on the delicate equilibrium of power between him and the oligarchs, and he won't survive long if he becomes vulnerable.

Compare that to the Western system where wounded leaders often limp around for months or even years before something or someone puts them out of their misery.

I'm no fan of Putin either, but I worry about how a post-Putin world looks because of how Russia's renewed vigour has usefully crowded out a slide towards US-China bipolarity.

Again, I think you have this the wrong way round; it is the oligarchs who must tread carefully around Putin, if they are to survive.

[marceau]

20 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

It's tempting to assume Putin himself is somehow unnassailable within and inseparable from the Russsian system of power, as it stands today.

His place within that system is certainly strong, but it is also fragile. The oligarchs are accustomed to - and maybe now *expect*? - regular "wins". Is he vulnerable if he gets bogged down in Ukraine and the EU shrugs off the spot market boycott? His position in the system relies on the delicate equilibrium of power between him and the oligarchs, and he won't survive long if he becomes vulnerable.

 

I believe you have this relationship backwards. The oligarchs will be nowhere without Putin, and if they ever forget it they can always remind themselves by looking at the tombstones of those who didn't take the deals he offered back in the 90s. All of this is pretty well known stuff, but if you want to read more there's a very good book detailing the period called 'The Godfather of the Kremlin'.

Also worth noting that all the candidates to replace him are far more nationalistic than he is. Putin is a moderating force in Russia. Zero chance they'll come back into the US spehere of influence after the pillaging they were subjected to post-Gorbachev.

As for the sudden political movement, that's a response to utterly insane US (and UK) foreign policy moves occuring in Ukraine. Red lines are being very clearly stated, so nobody ends up crossing them 'accidentally' without knowing the consequences.

[WICAO]

My strategy uses the KISS principle given I was useless at trading.  So it's just effectively buy, hold, rebalance (I try to rebalance without having to sell anything meaning it can take quite a while sometimes) and go fishing for me now.  One of my SIPPs has just had some good quarterly dividends paid so with me being very underweight gold that's where those divi's have just gone.

[M S E Refugee]

The Ukrainians are screwed and almost surrounded as they have Lukashenko to the North and all Putin has to do is offer Lwów (Lviv) to Poland which was supposed to be ceded to Poland after the War but this was blocked by Stalin,this would be checkmate to Putin.

If this was offered I'm sure the Poles would be very tempted to throw their lot in behind Putin especially now that the Western Powers are all weak and woke.

Despite the turbulent history between Poland and Russia they have more in common with the Russians now that the West has fallen.

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

11 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

People often want to link everything going bad back to the closing of the gold window in 1971, and that is valid, but I wonder how much impact the ending of national service had on governments willingness to walk all over the public's will.

"Access your flexible friend"

Since credit cards started the public have been easier to control.

[jamtomorrow]

34 minutes ago, marceau said:

As for the sudden political movement, that's a response to utterly insane US (and UK) foreign policy moves occuring in Ukraine. Red lines are being very clearly stated, so nobody ends up crossing them 'accidentally' without knowing the consequences.

That's the part I'm struggling to understand. There's no question, Russia has the EU's balls in the vice on energy security, but it didn't get there overtly or suddenly. It got there by boiling the frog, nice and slow.

Why the change? Red lines could be it, but I wonder if there's more to it. Seems a long time since the heady "tombstone" days of Putin's rise.

[DurhamBorn]

8 hours ago, JMD said:

This article does a good job explaining the current Covid Pantomime in the context of the oft quoted coming economic utopia whereby '...we will own nothing and be happy'. It is a long article, and mainly deals with the covid science which is interesting in itself, but what really grabbed me was the prediction that the service model will in future replace the physical ownership of goods etc. Most are familiar with software-as-a-service but the author raises the frightening prospect of vaccine-as-a-service...!!!, plus everything in-between including Netflix and Spotify or those expensive EVs. The subscription service model is already pervasive, and may eventually tip us into a new form of serfdom.                                                                       ...regardless of whether or not there are deeper hidden forces behind covid, the author settles on a less conspiratorial frame of reference with politicians 'never letting a crisis go to waste' and so the prospect of authoritarianism control eminating from both a health and financial crises was simply to good an opportunity to miss.                                                                                                        https://www.juliusruechel.com/2021/09/the-snake-oil-salesmen-and-covid-zero.html

Its also the way they can keep people working.If you have to lease rather than buy then you need a steady income because if you lose that you lose everything the next week.Once my old diesel Pugs were paid for they could sit on my drive for nothing until i needed them.I see little pushback from the young though,they seem mostly like lambs to the slaughter.

[marceau]

24 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

That's the part I'm struggling to understand. There's no question, Russia has the EU's balls in the vice on energy security, but it didn't get there overtly or suddenly. It got there by boiling the frog, nice and slow.

Why the change? Red lines could be it, but I wonder if there's more to it. Seems a long time since the heady "tombstone" days of Putin's rise.

Because the US is becoming increasingly agressive and irrational in Ukraine. The Russians aren't bluffing when they say they won't tolerate it, but there don't seem to be any adults at the controls in the US (or here) who recognise it. Like I said, it's insane behaviour.

As a result things that were previously being tolerated as part of the 'game' are now being cracked down on. Supposedly impartial NGOs, media organisations, charities, 'democrats' like Navalny, it's all being switched off. You can't play a delicate game of diplomacy when your opponent is a drooling gibbering lunatic, and that's what American (and by extension UK) foreign policy has become.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its also the way they can keep people working.If you have to lease rather than buy then you need a steady income because if you lose that you lose everything the next week.Once my old diesel Pugs were paid for they could sit on my drive for nothing until i needed them.I see little pushback from the young though,they seem mostly like lambs to the slaughter.

The young are mostly comatosed. Some are caught up in the environment or race baiting propaganda. Most just don't realise what is going on. Can't say I blame a lot of them. All I was interested in was going out and pulling women. Which is fair enough.

It is older people, maybe 30s plus, who should be complaining most. They can see that everything is going the wrong direction. They have reference points to how things were.

If I was young I would be furious about covid restrictions, especially pubs and clubs being shut. If I was paying for University but everything was online I would be apoplectic. Students should have kicked off all over the country last year. They haven't even had sit ins in the empty lecture theatres. Perhaps young people are doing things I'm not aware of. The apparent lack of workers suggests that at least some have sacked it all off as not worth the effort.

The flip side to your point about keeping people working is that it has to be worthwhile. There is increasingly fuck all difference between working and benefits. Many people are only working now to pay off the mortgage. If you're renting what is the point? No asset at the end of it to provide a higher standard of living. The whole "you'll own nothing" schtick is bullshit. Just fucking communism. No-one works hard under communism, just goes through the motions. Only motivation is fear and that just motivates you to cheat.