Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Joncrete Cungle]

3 minutes ago, marceau said:

I spend my remaining years driving round the British wastelands in arseless leather chaps. 

So it WAS you on the carpark of my closest ASDA earlier today?

[Loki]

@marceau I agree.  It says so much for what we lost, that the remains of it have lasted up until now.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, marceau said:

My thinking is Bush 2 = Brezhnev, Biden = Chernenko. Either way the front man is just a sign of decay, the real rot lies beneath due to the anti-reality nature of the apparatchiks. The human material required to maintain the system simply isn't there.

I like your thesis but I think events are already in motion. I would say the West is where the USSR was back in the 80's. Hypernormalisation is a (over) long documentary, describing the fake world we all now inhabit, and is available on YouTube. It's Wiki entry sums the theory up pretty well...    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/HyperNormalisation

[CannonFodder]

[marceau]

44 minutes ago, JMD said:

I like your thesis but I think events are already in motion. I would say the West is where the USSR was back in the 80's. Hypernormalisation is a (over) long documentary, describing the fake world we all now inhabit, and is available on YouTube. It's Wiki entry sums the theory up pretty well...    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/HyperNormalisation

 

Events are certainly well advanced and the 80s does seem like the best comparison. The (hopefully) original point of my posts is that interlopers (Bolsheviks in Russia, 'globalists' in the US), having captured their respective systems, then used those systems to produce an ideological generation incapable of maintaining the thing they had captured. The ideological conditioning required a rejection of the norms associated with the captured nation, with advancement dependant on ever further ideological commitment at the expense of practical reality.

The USSR could not, therefore, have produced and promoted another Stalin or Lenin (products of Czarist Russia), their own systems would have made it impossible. Likewise the US cannot produce and promote another Eisenhower or FDR, for example; only dross like the Clintons, Bushes & Bidens and the legion of useless clowns that exist below them. Competance and practical ability are rejected as part of the political process, so the system cannot perceive its problems, let alone remedy them, and down we go.

I don't like Curtis at all. Just a series of non-sequiturs with spooky music imo. 

[JMD]

3 minutes ago, marceau said:

 

Events are certainly well advanced and the 80s does seem like the best comparison. The (hopefully) original point of my posts is that interlopers (Bolsheviks in Russia, 'globalists' in the US), having captured their respective systems, then used those systems to produce an ideological generation incapable of maintaining the thing they had captured. The ideological conditioning required a rejection of the norms associated with the captured nation, with advancement dependant on ever further ideological commitment at the expense of practical reality.

The USSR could not, therefore, have produced and promoted another Stalin or Lenin (products of Czarist Russia), their own systems would have made it impossible. Likewise the US cannot produce and promote another Eisenhower or FD, for example; only dross like the Clintons, Bushes & Bidens and the legion of useless clowns that exist below them. Competance and practical ability are rejected as part of the political process, so the system cannot perceive, let alone remedy, its problems and down we go.

I don't like Curtis at all. Just a series of non-sequiturs with spooky music imo. 

Yep, I agree that Adam Curtis is a pompous beeboid type. However the term Hypernormalisation is from a book- 'Everything was forever, until it was no more', by an ex russian dissident.                                                              I agree with what you say above. Ultimately I'm just after a framework that works for me ('a myth to live by', if you will), else I fear I'll go mad! ...especially what with recent 'interesting' events ...oh, the framework also has to chime with my investment decisions/style - I tell myself this will prove that I have at least remained grounded with reality, hypernormalised or not?!

[AWW]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

what similar items/products could be bought then rented out? Perhaps some here are doing this already. Plus I'm thinking choosing the 'right item' could be very lucrative to rent, and not necessarily with a big hassle factor attached.

I rent out my camera gear, drone and guitars on Fat Llama. Although the site takes a quarter of the rental fee, they do vet renters and insure your stuff.

[Axeman123]

25 minutes ago, AWW said:

I rent out my camera gear, drone and guitars on Fat Llama. Although the site takes a quarter of the rental fee, they do vet renters and insure your stuff.

Surely mechanical stuff takes a beating though? Even if there are no obvious marks etc it must end up like a mini-cab, just from people treating it like one compared to their own.

[Errol]

8 hours ago, marceau said:

Because the US is becoming increasingly aggressive and irrational in Ukraine. The Russians aren't bluffing when they say they won't tolerate it, but there don't seem to be any adults at the controls in the US (or here) who recognise it. Like I said, it's insane behaviour.

As a result things that were previously being tolerated as part of the 'game' are now being cracked down on. Supposedly impartial NGOs, media organisations, charities, 'democrats' like Navalny, it's all being switched off. You can't play a delicate game of diplomacy when your opponent is a drooling gibbering lunatic, and that's what American (and by extension UK) foreign policy has become.

Agree with this completely. Great post.

[Funn3r]

8 hours ago, marceau said:

Because the US is becoming increasingly agressive and irrational in Ukraine. The Russians aren't bluffing when they say they won't tolerate it, but there don't seem to be any adults at the controls in the US (or here) who recognise it. Like I said, it's insane behaviour.

As a result things that were previously being tolerated as part of the 'game' are now being cracked down on. Supposedly impartial NGOs, media organisations, charities, 'democrats' like Navalny, it's all being switched off. You can't play a delicate game of diplomacy when your opponent is a drooling gibbering lunatic, and that's what American (and by extension UK) foreign policy has become.

Of course we discuss over and over what currently might be the bizarre reality of the US Presidency. I believe Russia knows for a fact and not an internet rumour that Joe Biden does not have access to the US nuclear weapons system. So after endlessly trying and failing to issue polite warnings to NATO, why not just go ahead with pushing back?

[Axeman123]

33 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Of course we discuss over and over what currently might be the bizarre reality of the US Presidency. I believe Russia knows for a fact and not an internet rumour that Joe Biden does not have access to the US nuclear weapons system. So after endlessly trying and failing to issue polite warnings to NATO, why not just go ahead with pushing back?

It is worth noting, iirc, that there isn't a "button". The "football" brief case is an encrypted satelite phone to relay a spoken message, including spoken codes, to another man. One or more of multiple people (cabinet members etc) have to confirm over the phone that the person giving the order is who they claim to be. There is an implicit assumption that person could decline to participate if the launch order was invalid or the person issuing it was insane. The man at the other end of the line has to securely phone other people in a chain to actually initiate a launch. The standard protocol already includes many safeguards against a rogue or false order. Other than some of those people around Biden saying privately that they wouldn't go along with ordering a launch under any forseeable scenario, I doubt any special precautions have been implemented.

[AWW]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

Surely mechanical stuff takes a beating though? Even if there are no obvious marks etc it must end up like a mini-cab, just from people treating it like one compared to their own.

No sign of that happening so far. The sort of person who cares enough to rent a camera lens or a (videography) drone is likely to look after it, I feel. With the guitars, I stipulate they are for recording only. Nobody seems to have gigged one yet.

Not fussed about marks on the trailer, it's already paid for itself.

[invalid]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its also the way they can keep people working.If you have to lease rather than buy then you need a steady income because if you lose that you lose everything the next week.Once my old diesel Pugs were paid for they could sit on my drive for nothing until i needed them.I see little pushback from the young though,they seem mostly like lambs to the slaughter.

 

 

This is exactly what its all about.

Even if by some marvel of technology we could all be millionaires tomorrow we still need workers, all the way from bin men* to brain surgeons we need workers and they are all equally essential for modern life.

The metal chains are old fashioned and long gone. We are now wage slaves.

 

 

* you could argue that bin men (refuse collection technicians?) save more lives than brain surgeons....

[Joncrete Cungle]

1 minute ago, invalid said:

 

 

This is exactly what its all about.

Even if by some marvel of technology we could all be millionaires tomorrow we still need workers, all the way from bin men* to brain surgeons we need workers and they are all equally essential for modern life.

The metal chains are old fashioned and long gone. We are now wage slaves.

 

 

* you could argue that bin men (refuse collection technicians?) save more lives than brain surgeons....

Wage slaves, debt slaves or both?

[Sugarlips]

Happy New Year 

 

 

[Mapper]

Can @DurhamBorn or anybody else clarify the meaning of "distribution cycle"?

From the beginning of this thread I have not really grasped what it means exactly.

A while back I heard David Hunter in an interview refer to the term. He said the next cycle would be characterised in part by stocks that had made highs this cycle being sold off bit by bit. He said they would trend lower over the long term but with occasional bids higher. At these times long-term holders would see an opportunity to bail out. He said that was a "distribution cycle".

The other day I heard Peter Schiff describe the same mechanism for long-term holders of bit coin pumping and dumping in order to realise gains. He referred to that as "distribution".

The way DB has mentioned it, I had it in mind that it was more complex than just the above. That it was a process of capital moving from unproductive assets to productive ones. The reasons for that? Again, I am not clear. Is it to do with rising interest rates favouring capital supporting more productive endeavours? ie. If money is costly it ought to be put to good use?

[WICAO]

2021 annualised return for my total wealth, including a large amount of cash for a home build, was 8.3%.  So with RPI at 7.1% my real return was a miserly 1.2%.  Crazy times...

[Alifelessbinary]

2 hours ago, WICAO said:

2021 annualised return for my total wealth, including a large amount of cash for a home build, was 8.3%.  So with RPI at 7.1% my real return was a miserly 1.2%.  Crazy times...

Compared to most people who are earning 0.1% in a savings account (-7%) 8.3% is a solid result. If my returns beat inflation over the next few years I’ll see that as a huge success. After the huge gains of the last few years, wealth growth is going to be tricky, but wealth preservation is my main focus this year, as inflation is clearly in the system and things are going to get messy.

[wherebee]

3 hours ago, WICAO said:

2021 annualised return for my total wealth, including a large amount of cash for a home build, was 8.3%.  So with RPI at 7.1% my real return was a miserly 1.2%.  Crazy times...

dont forget, that 7.1% is average across stuff you may not be exposed to.  for example, if you have a mortgage free property to live in, you are not subject to rent increases.  use miminal energy because you put on a jumper instead of turning the gas heating on?  ditto.

[spygirl]

5 hours ago, Mapper said:

Can @DurhamBorn or anybody else clarify the meaning of "distribution cycle"?

From the beginning of this thread I have not really grasped what it means exactly.

A while back I heard David Hunter in an interview refer to the term. He said the next cycle would be characterised in part by stocks that had made highs this cycle being sold off bit by bit. He said they would trend lower over the long term but with occasional bids higher. At these times long-term holders would see an opportunity to bail out. He said that was a "distribution cycle".

The other day I heard Peter Schiff describe the same mechanism for long-term holders of bit coin pumping and dumping in order to realise gains. He referred to that as "distribution".

The way DB has mentioned it, I had it in mind that it was more complex than just the above. That it was a process of capital moving from unproductive assets to productive ones. The reasons for that? Again, I am not clear. Is it to do with rising interest rates favouring capital supporting more productive endeavours? ie. If money is costly it ought to be put to good use?

https://www.investopedia.com/trading/market-cycles-key-maximum-returns/#toc-3-distribution-phase

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

That because very apparent to me after the last election. Open goal for the democrats after Trump, and they had some excellent candidates like Tulsi Gabbard. Articulate, intelligent, principled, veteran, active duty army officer, woman, "woman of colour", hot, literally ticked every single box. She destroyed Kamala Harris on the debate stage as if to emphasize this. Result? Dems choose Harris as running mate to a senile old duffer, barely beating Trump 

I scratched my head about that one for a while. Your explanation helps. But why is that they cannot produce another good candidate? "The Swamp" being fearful of actually being drained? To select a good candidate would be suicide fir the thousands of useless apparatchiks?

And of course for the Washington swamp read across for the Whitehall Blob (Boris has to be most easily manipulated PM I've ever seen), or the EU (Von Der Leyen as a cardboard cutout polo with a tape recorder strapped to her head).

I think democracy mostly works, in that the majority of people will choose the right leader at the right time (of course this doesnt apply to the EU, they've skipped that bit and just appoint the overlord). Like Churchill being booted out once the war ended. But we don't have any control over the candidates being offered. And no one seems to notice.

I liked Tulsi. She couldn't be selected as she was firmly anti-war. Not the person to keep the same old show on the road.

[Mapper]

28 minutes ago, spygirl said:

https://www.investopedia.com/trading/market-cycles-key-maximum-returns/#toc-3-distribution-phase

Cheers. I think that covers what Hunter was referring to. But, I thought that here we are talking about a cycle rather than a phase.

In the link the section twice says the distribution phase is often quick. I thought we were talking about a distribution cycle that would last a decade.

Or does that mean be ready for a long grind down over years and years?

[WICAO]

47 minutes ago, wherebee said:

dont forget, that 7.1% is average across stuff you may not be exposed to.  for example, if you have a mortgage free property to live in, you are not subject to rent increases.  use miminal energy because you put on a jumper instead of turning the gas heating on?  ditto.

Agreed.  On the high inflation thread I shared exactly that a day or so ago.  For us our personal inflation rate sees us back at 2017 levels of spending.  Once we build our home here in Australia spending will then again reduce significantly from current levels.

This is a cut & paste of that post:

"

With 2021 pretty much done and a few years of accurate spending records I know how my personal rate of inflation is panning out warts and all which includes us being dirty renters for the whole period.

2015; UK based; £2,034 per month

2016; UK based; £2,250 per month

2017; UK based; £2,420 per month

2018; part UK part CY based; £2,664 per month

2019; part UK part CY based; £3,795 per month

2020; part UK part AU based; £4,327 per month

2021; AU based; £2,463 per month

So our spending is currently at 2017 levels and we are currently living our best lives.  Inflation, what inflation...

"

[Errol]

Record use of the US repo facility yesterday.

 

 

[marceau]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I scratched my head about that one for a while. Your explanation helps. But why is that they cannot produce another good candidate? "The Swamp" being fearful of actually being drained? To select a good candidate would be suicide fir the thousands of useless apparatchiks?

 

A lot of reasons overlap I think. It's not like the entire society no longer produces quality people (although it certainly produces fewer), but there's a selection effect that prevents them from ever getting into the right positions. A combination of grievance, envy, defensiveness, ass-covering and of course the ideology itself, which grows ever stronger as you get further up the food chain. The ideological ratchet in every US/UK institution only moves in one direction.

The effect also gets stronger over time, hence the Chernenko comparison. By the time the 1st gen of pure ideologues is entrenched at the very top you have 2 entire generations of even bigger idiots fully produced and out in the environment beneath them. Biden/Clinton gen 1, Harris/Obama gen 2, and the likes of AOC/Omar gen 3. Gen 3 being full-spectrum imbeciles.

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

And of course for the Washington swamp read across for the Whitehall Blob (Boris has to be most easily manipulated PM I've ever seen), or the EU (Von Der Leyen as a cardboard cutout polo with a tape recorder strapped to her head).

The UK & EU are vassal states, both have lagged US political trends by a decade or two, as that has been the amount of time needed to push out and localise the required legal changes. This lag has also reduced over the generations, and now sometimes measures in only months. Nothing can change in the EU or UK until US control is forced out or collapses, it is the originator.