Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Starsend]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I'm sitting on good gains (c.70%) and am looking to add more after the current (last time I looked) pull back.  I tend to go direct to the MOEX for such reasons.  But the UK TPTB were welcoming Russian money even when we were (are) fighting a type of "war".  They seem in bed with the Russians similar to the Chinese.  Just all part of the risks, like my Turkisk Lira holding (cash to deploy but market access was then closed!). 

I'm also up about 70% so be a good gain if I sold but would prefer to hold. Which broker do you use for the MOEX?

[ThoughtCriminal]

Tesla, most expensive clown stock in history.

 

That increase is half Toyota's entire market cap in a day.

[leonardratso]

hmm a bit like house prices eh.

[DurhamBorn]

Gas anyone.

[CannonFodder]

 

Amazing how risk of lights going out affect the politics. 

Green now includes good old dino gas it seems. Green somewhat flexible.

we should invest in bp gazprom and repsol to do Greta proud.

[macca]

On 02/01/2022 at 09:25, Calcutta said:

Getting past the 'evil Tories' thing and realising that the entire political game is rigged against you should be mandatory for accessing the thread. It should've been mandatory for accessing TOS in the first place. 

 

Sir Tony? 

I'm trying to figure out how Corbyn is anything like Bodger or any other Tory.. 

Tony blair, Sir Starma yes.. 

But when Corbyn was up for election he is absolutely nothing like a Tory..

Follow him on the social media.. look at his voting records. No 2nd jobs, no voting for wars, no voting for anything against the best interests of the people. 

I've never voted for anyone who has actually won because I always research my candidate.. The bent ones normally win. 

So really it's the electorate that's the problem.. if people took more interest and researched there candidates we might be in a better place.  

My argument is "they are all the same so don't vote" 

That's nonsense. 

[DurhamBorn]

Its just so easy everyone can do it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/buy-to-let-properties-will-allow-retire-millionaire-2023/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

"When buying a property to let out, it has to be on an interest-only basis, it is absolutely essential. The real genius part of this model comes from inflation and compounding because the amount you owe the bank does not increase with inflation but the value of your property will increase with time.”

His first purchase, made jointly with his father on a three-bedroom house in Sheffield, was completed in December 2020 and his share is valued at £135,550. It generates an income of £150 a month for each of them, after paying the mortgage and towards a contingency fund. “It’s not a huge amount, but it’s a start,”

 

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Starsend said:

I'm also up about 70% so be a good gain if I sold but would prefer to hold. Which broker do you use for the MOEX?

Interactive Brokers.

[Hancock]

55 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its just so easy everyone can do it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/buy-to-let-properties-will-allow-retire-millionaire-2023/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

"When buying a property to let out, it has to be on an interest-only basis, it is absolutely essential. The real genius part of this model comes from inflation and compounding because the amount you owe the bank does not increase with inflation but the value of your property will increase with time.”

His first purchase, made jointly with his father on a three-bedroom house in Sheffield, was completed in December 2020 and his share is valued at £135,550. It generates an income of £150 a month for each of them, after paying the mortgage and towards a contingency fund. “It’s not a huge amount, but it’s a start,”

 

Read that earlier, he's a dopey bearded cunt whose about to get ditched by his spick bird when she realises that he's not only very lazy, but he is also very broke. (no access to the 50k pension for 20 years)

Comments from the usual DT landlord brigade show the kind of self deranged parasitic cunt the boomer landlord class of England are. 

Got to love this comment by Mr Buytolet though  "This modern life of selling time for money does not work for me."

Since when did going to work for money become "modern life", and when did it suit most people ... and what will happen when his dirty renters decide they don't like that idea also.

He has a non job filling out mortgage applications and even that is too stressful for him, what a complete cunt.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, macca said:

I'm trying to figure out how Corbyn is anything like Bodger or any other Tory.. 

Tony blair, Sir Starma yes.. 

But when Corbyn was up for election he is absolutely nothing like a Tory..

Follow him on the social media.. look at his voting records. No 2nd jobs, no voting for wars, no voting for anything against the best interests of the people. 

I've never voted for anyone who has actually won because I always research my candidate.. The bent ones normally win. 

So really it's the electorate that's the problem.. if people took more interest and researched there candidates we might be in a better place.  

My argument is "they are all the same so don't vote" 

That's nonsense. 

Get over yourself with Corbyn, he lost (twice), he's a crooked commie loser and Labour are traitorous cunts, but there are also plenty of topics about the 2nd coming that couldn't muster up any cum when he had to. 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Read that earlier, he's a dopey bearded cunt whose about to get ditched by his spick bird when she realises that he's not only very lazy, but he is also very broke. (no access to the 50k pension for 20 years)

Comments from the usual DT landlord brigade show the kind of self deranged parasitic cunt the boomer landlord class of England are. 

Got to love this comment by Mr Buytolet though  "This modern life of selling time for money does not work for me."

Since when did going to work for money become "modern life", and when did it suit most people ... and what will happen when his dirty renters decide they don't like that idea also.

He has a non job filling out mortgage applications and even that is too stressful for him, what a complete cunt.

He actually says the real genius of the model is inflation because the amount you owe the bank doesnt increase, but the house price will.Moronic.No understanding that inflation pushes up rates for a cycle.It really is incredible.

[Joncrete Cungle]

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

Get over yourself with Corbyn, he lost (twice), he's a crooked commie loser and Labour are traitorous cunts, but there are also plenty of topics about the 2nd coming that couldn't muster up any cum when he had to. 

I don't understand the euphoria from some people that accompanied Corbyn becoming leader of the opposition. It's like they deliberately decided to forget he is a very different political beast to 95% of Labour politicians.

IF he had won most of the politicians in his own party wouldn't have voted in support of most of his policies. As to do so would invoke the ire of their globalist masters and threaten their cushty non exec directorships and other rewards for carrying out their real masters orders when they leave politics.

[Innkeeper]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

He actually says the real genius of the model is inflation because the amount you owe the bank doesnt increase, but the house price will.Moronic.No understanding that inflation pushes up rates for a cycle.It really is incredible.

To be fair though, he’s only seen what a whole generation have over the past 15 years in that prices always go up and that interest rates are going to remain at next to nothing.  Enforced of course by a rabid MSM.  Housing therefore is a one way bet and only clever people like him can see how to make money without doing much.

The late 70s, early 90s and 2007 are airily dismissed if (anyone bothers to research them) with ‘that can’t happen now’.  The governments in the west have been pedalling the idea that they can control everything from climate to Covid to living standards.  It’s going to become very obvious over the next few years that they absolutely cannot. 

Until then the BTLers will continue to slap each other on the back and smirk at those non believers..

 

[Majorpain]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its just so easy everyone can do it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/buy-to-let-properties-will-allow-retire-millionaire-2023/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

"When buying a property to let out, it has to be on an interest-only basis, it is absolutely essential. The real genius part of this model comes from inflation and compounding because the amount you owe the bank does not increase with inflation but the value of your property will increase with time.”

His first purchase, made jointly with his father on a three-bedroom house in Sheffield, was completed in December 2020 and his share is valued at £135,550. It generates an income of £150 a month for each of them, after paying the mortgage and towards a contingency fund. “It’s not a huge amount, but it’s a start,”

 

It gets better, you can have a read of his blog (spoiler: he's a shit WICAO).

https://davidscothern.com/

Quote

Anyway, back to the week just gone.  It did not start well.  Our tenant moved out on December 18th.  I know people who live near to my BTL and they told me that the property had rubbish mounted outside and that the gardens looked in a terrible state.  I had arranged via email to meet the agent at 9am on the 20th to complete the final inspection.  I stated several times that the agent needed to have the keys with them because I suspected they would turn up without them.  I’ve had so many issues with this agent that nothing surprised me.  So, I made a point of emphasising this several times.  

I turned up at the property a little before 9am.  The front and back gardens were horrific.  Mattresses, cardboard boxes, bags of rubbish, pet carriers, children’s toys, and a pushbike were all just scattered across the garden.  It was almost heartbreaking because the previous owners had created a beautiful space in the decades they’d owned the property.  When the agent turned up, it quickly became apparent that they did not have the right keys.  I was not impressed.  

After giving the agents a verbal barrage, I left the issue with them to sort out.  To their credit, they arranged for a locksmith to change all the locks and provide us with a new set of keys.  A little later, we received the report regarding the internal condition of the property.  The phrase “shithole” springs to mind.  The tenant had wrecked the place.  Burns on the carpet, blinds broken, light fittings smashed, bare electrical wiring from where she had ripped out light switches and light fittings.  Paint and wallpaper scraped and ripped off.  The toilet seat had been broken off the toilet.  The brand new cooker we supplied looked like it had not been cleaned in a decade, despite having been used for just a year.  The kitchen was under a cm of water as the tenant had disconnected a washing machine and not turned the water off.  This is just the tip of the iceberg.  It is going to cost thousands to put right, so we’ve decided to go the whole way and do a complete refurb, more or less.

 

 

[Harley]

16 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

"Ohhh, donnnt be like that!" :-)))

I quoted the wrong post and can't delete them on my phone (only on my desktop) so had to use it! 

Anyone know how to delete mis-quotes?  I can only get rid of a misquote on my phone if I exit before saving the post and clear the editor when creating a new post but not if I've saved the post.

PS:  Maybe an opportunity to cut down on my finance posts (massive crowd applause) by only posting from my desktop!

[MrXxxx]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its just so easy everyone can do it.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/buy-to-let-properties-will-allow-retire-millionaire-2023/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

"When buying a property to let out, it has to be on an interest-only basis, it is absolutely essential. The real genius part of this model comes from inflation and compounding because the amount you owe the bank does not increase with inflation but the value of your property will increase with time.”

His first purchase, made jointly with his father on a three-bedroom house in Sheffield, was completed in December 2020 and his share is valued at £135,550. It generates an income of £150 a month for each of them, after paying the mortgage and towards a contingency fund. “It’s not a huge amount, but it’s a start,”

 

Makes me wonder why everyone doesn't just give up work/a 'normal' job, and instead of becoming a "Nation of shopkeepers" we become a nation of BTL entrepreneurs?!

[MrXxxx]

17 minutes ago, Harley said:

I quoted the wrong post and can't delete them on my phone (only on my desktop) so had to use it! 

Anyone know how to delete mis-quotes?  I can only get rid of a misquote on my phone if I exit before saving the post and clear the editor when creating a new post but not if I've saved the post.

PS:  Maybe an opportunity to cut down on my finance posts (massive crowd applause) by only posting from my desktop!

Seemed to be in context to me....made me laugh anyway...love a 'bit of banter' :-)

[spygirl]

Economist are shit article - 

Political uncertainty and Brexit will slow UK recovery in 2022, economists predict

Annual FT survey shows living standards will fall as inflation outpaces wages in year ahead

https://www.ft.com/content/e8f45dc9-c93b-4c8c-b5d2-48ebb623a5a6

 

 

 

 

Id suggest that, with price and tax rises and demand for workers, whilst ~30% of the working pop sit on their arses , that UK wages are going to go up a lot more. And inflation with it.

With those inflation and growth figures, UK bas rates should be 5% min.

 

 

 

[planit]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

He actually says the real genius of the model is inflation because the amount you owe the bank doesnt increase, but the house price will.Moronic.No understanding that inflation pushes up rates for a cycle.It really is incredible.

He has more 'faith' in the MPC/government than you, he 'knows' that they just buy their own debt to keep rates permanently low - leading to IO mortgages never going over 3%

 

Sorry you are wrong on this one, I am siding with the BTL genius. 

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, Innkeeper said:

To be fair though, he’s only seen what a whole generation have over the past 15 years in that prices always go up and that interest rates are going to remain at next to nothing.  Enforced of course by a rabid MSM.  Housing therefore is a one way bet and only clever people like him can see how to make money without doing much.

The late 70s, early 90s and 2007 are airily dismissed if (anyone bothers to research them) with ‘that can’t happen now’.  The governments in the west have been pedalling the idea that they can control everything from climate to Covid to living standards.  It’s going to become very obvious over the next few years that they absolutely cannot. 

Until then the BTLers will continue to slap each other on the back and smirk at those non believers..

 

Not really in Sheffield.

 

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Economist are shit article - 

Political uncertainty and Brexit will slow UK recovery in 2022, economists predict

Annual FT survey shows living standards will fall as inflation outpaces wages in year ahead

https://www.ft.com/content/e8f45dc9-c93b-4c8c-b5d2-48ebb623a5a6

 

 

 

 

Id suggest that, with price and tax rises and demand for workers, whilst ~30% of the working pop sit on their arses , that UK wages are going to go up a lot more. And inflation with it.

With those inflation and growth figures, UK bas rates should be 5% min.

 

 

 

Unless we get the "recession of necessity" to take the pressure off, although in the aftermath of that we'd probably have an even smaller workforce and crazier stimulus. Might be a bit of a lull at the moment with the meat of discourse (strikes etc) to come around Spring?

[Boon]

This is a good thread:

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/property/4443826-Just-gas-alone-has-cost-us-170-last-month

I reckon there must be quite a few financially illterate people out there, who think because their direct debit to their power company is £60 a month, therefore they must be using £60 of power.

I expect that within the next couple of months this will be like the cladding stuff, a daily story in the newspaper about how people have been forced to go cold. For extra effect using a young woman and throwing in mental health problems.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

It gets better, you can have a read of his blog (spoiler: he's a shit WICAO).

https://davidscothern.com/

 

It makes you wonder how many of these there are.The article says value of assets,but the blog shows the debts.The BTL has 20% equity at todays prices.So fully leveraged.Was that this December when they took back the house trashed?.Already they will be looking at 3 months minimum no rent and the refurb costs.I suspect that will wipe a years profits.Of course with 80% LTV they are also the most exposed if rents fall,or more likely as rates increase and rents flatline.

To be fair the guy seems to be building his pension,ISA etc and has a decent cash cushion the in premium bonds.The residential mortgage looks like interest only as well as the BTL though.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, planit said:

He has more 'faith' in the MPC/government than you, he 'knows' that they just buy their own debt to keep rates permanently low - leading to IO mortgages never going over 3%

 

Sorry you are wrong on this one, I am siding with the BTL genius. 

It doesnt matter if they do.He is leveraged for rates to go lower.He is making no profit by the time you take voids and repairs.House prices are priced at these rates now so he bought needing rates to go minus if he is to make capital gains over the cycle.My job is to work out how far bands are pulled back and where we are in the cycle.This guy is hugely exposed with very little chance of profit,but a very big risk of losing all his capital,or worse going under.

BP will outperform his plan by at least 100% including dividends over the cycle.Thats not counting the 55% up already.

 

[Axeman123]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

To be fair the guy seems to be building his pension,ISA etc and has a decent cash cushion the in premium bonds.

Surely that will just benefit the lender(s) if his portfolio goes pop?