Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[leonardratso]

i might, im hoping they go the redundo route, but i might just get fired. To be honest i dont really care, ive dug them out of many many holes in the past, time for me to back fill some of those holes.

[reformed nice guy]

Milton Friedman said "When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around."

A big concern of mine is that most of the voices out there with alternative ideas are batshit crazy. The Guardian had an article by an economist recommending price controls, MMT is getting bigger followings, UBI is now expected as "the right thing to do".

Return OF investment is becoming a concern of mine over the medium to long term.

[feed]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

depends...

ive saved an absolute shit ton not going into work, doing a job i fucking hate for a company i would gladly burn to the ground in a heartbeat, but thats a recent thing, it wasnt always like that, so like i said - depends on circumstances, and mine have gone bad recently, a lot of people left in the meantime, but its basically because of what the company did in the meantime rather than because of lockdowns/wfh and the such like. Still i suppose i do as little as possible for them now at home, i certainly dont go out of my way to make life easy for them and i certainly dont spend 8 hrs a day in meetings or on a laptop for them.

58 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

its a revenge thing. hahahaha, ill gladly do nowt but still get paid and get my pension paid as well, im an old fucker now and i cant see myself being arsed to carry on in this industry elsewhere, it will do until i decide whats next, either way its the path of least resistance.

38 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

i might, im hoping they go the redundo route, but i might just get fired. To be honest i dont really care, ive dug them out of many many holes in the past, time for me to back fill some of those holes.

You are me and icmfp

[jamtomorrow]

41 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Milton Friedman said "When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around."

A big concern of mine is that most of the voices out there with alternative ideas are batshit crazy. The Guardian had an article by an economist recommending price controls, MMT is getting bigger followings, UBI is now expected as "the right thing to do".

Return OF investment is becoming a concern of mine over the medium to long term.

Big concern of mine is that a crisis could bring forward what would otherwise have been a slow decades-long process where encroaching automation grinds most of the remaining labour out of the economy.

If that happens with a bang, we're in for all sorts of "fun" because almost nobody will be ready to make the leap to a system where what you get out is no longer linked to your contribution.

Me included - I can see it coming, but I know my protestant work ethic simply won't let me embrace it.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

Milton Friedman said "When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around."

A big concern of mine is that most of the voices out there with alternative ideas are batshit crazy. The Guardian had an article by an economist recommending price controls, MMT is getting bigger followings, UBI is now expected as "the right thing to do".

Return OF investment is becoming a concern of mine over the medium to long term.

Here's a young lad collecting on his UBI

 

They're enslaving a nation and still people clap.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

3 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

I think benefits will be eroded by inflation to an extent or at least become very uncomfortable going forwards.

There will be chaos however, there was a survey a while back that average highway maintenance worker was late fifties, this the people doing the work not in offices. Crazy. Jumping down from those rigs not good for the knees.

Services will be hollowed out, continuity destroyed, then rebuilt which will add to inefficiency as things bed in. Inefficiency leads to cost.

 

Ah...now I know why all the roads have to be redone 18 months later!

[janch]

Interesting a government has fallen because of its energy problem and covered by Shaun Richards in his blog today:

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/

So a signal has gone out that a consequence of the energy price rises and inflation is that government’s can fall becuse of it. That will echo around a few capitals especially as it was in the usually stable Kazakhstan. There is a clear irony in that a country with plenty of energy resources managed to get itself into such a mess.

[Axeman123]

3 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Bloke I've known for 20 years had a heart attack 6 weeks ago. He had one about 15 years ago but has lived squeaky clean since then.

Wife was told it was a 3 hour wait.

She bundled him in the car and then had to wait hours in A&E.

That is shocking! If that is representative of heart attack patient treatment, then lives will have been needlessly lost. More the sort of story you would associate with the third world or Russia in the 1990s!

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

...as once Rishi realises people are opting out, I think that'll be the trigger and they'll make their moves.

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

I wonder if people will 'pay' either in kind [barter] or with Bitcoin type 'currency', thus avoiding the taxation and being untraceable...

4 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

A desparate government still has an imagination.

People will certainly move to barter and unofficial currency to avoid the tax ecosystem, and governments will seek to restrict access to physical cash to corral as much activity into it.

The big development I will be watching will be the vast expansion of the definition of"money-laundering" and "unexplained wealth", and the increased linking of these to human trafficking etc in the media. Very ordinary people will potentially be caught in that net, and expected to account for their assets/lifestyle in a much more intrusive way.

I expect cash deposits to be reportable at much lower values than today, and "unexplained" physical cash or PMs to be confiscated by default by the state if encountered pending satisfactory explanation of the source from taxed income. People with such in the house may be advised to think twice before calling the police if they are the victim of a crime, much like weed growers now, lest the police prioritise that.

I think it likely at some point that the general public will be required to promptly report cash transactions above a certain lowish value, including tax details of the counter-party, regardles of whether it will be taxable. Even if the person receiving and depositing cash can account for receiving it legitimately, this will make it a lot harder for people to spend untaxed cash in bulk. Hassle alone will deter many from handling physical cash.

Government is going to have to cut real terms spending, and inflation will do some of the work for them, but a shift to wealth being guilty until proven innocent will also occur.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

WTF?

 

[Errol]

Russia and Belarus are effectively the same, so really just 3 countries. And I should add that Russia and China are massive allies so this makes it essentially 2 countries controlling the Potash from a Western Perspective.

 

 

[Errol]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

This...and I wonder if people will 'pay' either in kind [barter] or with Bitcoin type 'currency', thus avoiding the taxation and being untraceable.....

Bitcoin is absolutely traceable - was designed by the NSA and US intelligence. The ledger is the biggest weakness. Whereas gold and silver remain totally untraceable and can be disposed of or utilised at will with no records or traces left.

[BadAlchemy]

57 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

WTF?

 

Kazatomprom currently -8%

Cameco +10%

Denison Mines +13%

[Democorruptcy]

2nd Jan True Contrarian

[CannonFodder]

49 minutes ago, Errol said:

Bitcoin is absolutely traceable - was designed by the NSA and US intelligence. The ledger is the biggest weakness. Whereas gold and silver remain totally untraceable and can be disposed of or utilised at will with no records or traces left.

Dont people lose their bullion in  tragic tree planting accidents?

Could happen to me .. ..

I dont own a boat 

[Loki]

Just now, CannonFodder said:

Dont people lose their bullion in  tragic tree planting accidents?

Could happen to me .. ..

I dont own a boat 

You as well huh 

[JMD]

8 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Macro wise, this is all highly inflationary, wages will have to go up. But I really don't see where the govt is going to get tax from if people in the middle who fund the whole bloody country are quitting jobs and selling assets. I can see the parasite killing the host pretty soon, then what? 

Perhaps this health pandemic will metamorphosis into something new...

...Chris (weirdo) Whitty and the 'JVT' will exit stage right, and Boris will then be flanked by a couple of entomologists!!

 

But tbc I don't mean to make light of the situation you describe. The country really is turning into a horror show, with i think the NHS taking a grisly 'starring role'.          

[AyrshireBoy]

Im looking to invest about 1500 in my first silver purchase. Any advice most economical way to buy it? Thanks.

[Plan-b]

19 minutes ago, AyrshireBoy said:

Im looking to invest about 1500 in my first silver purchase. Any advice most economical way to buy it? Thanks.

If your looking at Physical then BullionVault is easy and follow spot prices closely, other than that its best to go with UK coin of the realm such as Britannia's, if your in the UK of course.

Just now, Plan-b said:

If your looking at Physical then BullionVault is easy and follow spot prices closely, other than that its best to go with UK coin of the realm such as Britannia's, if your in the UK of course.

There is VAT to consider on the coins

[DurhamBorn]

@Cattle Prod i think the nature of the start of the cycle has seen things brought forward yes.Inflation is where i expected,but profits arrived much quicker,pretty much the cycles profits in 18 months.The question is have i/we underestimated the profits? (i think yes).There are trillions to come out of growth,bonds and houses and into other assets yet.Its obvious here in the UK though the state is consuming itself now.Bennies and retired ex government/council workers are taking more and more of the pie.Once the BOE stop QE the government is in a world of trouble.

[AyrshireBoy]

19 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

If your looking at Physical then BullionVault is easy and follow spot prices closely, other than that its best to go with UK coin of the realm such as Britannia's, if your in the UK of course.

There is VAT to consider on the coins

Thank you 👍

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

profits arrived much quicker,pretty much the cycles profits in 18 months

Sorry do you mean the whole of the cycle ending around 2030?  Or the ending of the old cycle?

[Hancock]

55 minutes ago, AyrshireBoy said:

Im looking to invest about 1500 in my first silver purchase. Any advice most economical way to buy it? Thanks.

GJGB, which has silver miners in.

[mh9000]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

@Cattle Prod i think the nature of the start of the cycle has seen things brought forward yes.Inflation is where i expected,but profits arrived much quicker,pretty much the cycles profits in 18 months.The question is have i/we underestimated the profits? (i think yes).There are trillions to come out of growth,bonds and houses and into other assets yet.Its obvious here in the UK though the state is consuming itself now.Bennies and retired ex government/council workers are taking more and more of the pie.Once the BOE stop QE the government is in a world of trouble.

Once again, thanks to yourself and everyone contributing for this thread. 

Can you explain how you see it coming out of houses and into other assets? Second homers and BTL LL having to sell to pay for increased living costs, higher council tax? How does it then go into the other assets?

Asking as a layman potential FTBer in my 30s. I accept I'll be likely paying over the odds if I buy a place this year, get on with life and try make up for it with other areas as the deposit is no longer sat there in cash. 

[mh9000]

5 minutes ago, Hancock said:

GJGB, which has silver miners in.

Was also going to ask is it better to go with something like this that can be in an ISA (I think) over a Bullionvault? Think the closest wrapper you can have is gold in a SIPP with them.

[CannonFodder]

Perhaps of interest here in terms of housing future.

Had a pre christmas works drinkie while these still encouraged. Ended up in group of directors. At one point conversation turned to their finances as they were running out of useful stuff to salary sacrifice on. 

i enquired why the love of sacrifice.

Seems they all have exactly 3 buy to lets. They said something to do with taxes if they go over. Curious if anyone knows what this is?

Anyways, the rent income - guess 36k for 3 houses at 1k a month is pushing them well over the 100k so they pay 60 percent tax on this rent due to personal allowance taper. In addition one of the younger had pre-schoolers soat risk of lost free 30 hours free childcare probly pushing the 60 percent to well over 100 percent.

Their solution for the moment was to salary sacrifice to offset the rent.

AS their salaries increase each year, this willnot be sustainable long term.