Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Yes, but it's not the crappy clapping that worries me. It's the government enforced worship (beatification?) of the NHS and of education... Sectors which totalitarians have typically enjoyed pulling the strings of in order to make the public dance to their tune. 

Yes agree. However, the NHS is going to fall apart and get relegated to safety net status. This reminds me that Spotify were playing adverts yesterday for Benenden Health. From £11.90 per month per employee. Healthcare is in play.

[Ma2]

21 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Swanage these days is 50% FHL or 2nd homes.

No community=no future for you.

Agree on point 1, neighbouring houses all holiday lets or holiday homes. However despite this and the shuffling undead I disagree with point 2, it does have a community and with the market, fishmongers , butchers, cafes etc. and lots of very local stuff sold in each I think there is resilience there that doesn’t rely on tourists in the summer. Plus at least the pensioners have cash at the moment 😊
seeing a lot of families move down, maybe into grandparents old houses or just moving from London and WFH. Maybe some lets being sold off too  

still going to move out to cash in though 😆

but community and resilience is an important point you make but really you don’t see that from the outside so very difficult to tell when you move to a new area what it will be like when push comes to shove 
 

if I see a high street and it’s now just vape shops and chicken takeaways then I worry. Maybe a bit snobbish but indicates a few things to me that don’t bode well for the future. 
 

like someone said upthread maybe better off in an area where people are less reliant on benefits (or state pension)

[The Bear of Doom]

4 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

It always horrifies me when children inherit a house from their parents then chuck out everything their dad had in the garage. Jam jars full of nails or bolts, the one bit of wood used to stir paint over a 40 year period, unused spare dowels or pins from previously assembled furniture all sent to the tip. Its a disgrace. Our ancestors knew it was worth keeping all those bits and pieces, and often couldnt afford the luxury of ringing a plumber when a leak was found. Do it yourself was the norm not a hobby. Its sad to see the shift in culture

It's probably been mentioned on this thread before, but good quality tools could be considered a worthwhile investment class.  I've found that eBay and car boot sales are good hunting grounds for cheap second-hand tools, just avoid the ones made out of Chinesium   I have managed to pick up tools costing £50, or even £300+, for as little as 50p at car boot sales in the last couple of years .

I've also discovered that service manuals, particularly for electronic items, can be found online for free download from sites such as archive.org, freeservicemanuals.info, elektrotanya.com, etc.

[Axeman123]

5 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

if I see a high street and it’s now just vape shops and chicken takeaways then I worry. Maybe a bit snobbish but indicates a few things to me that don’t bode well for the future.

Nothing snobbish about that, those two business classes are really only there to launder cash or exploit 16hr/wk tax credits. An excess of them tells you there is no other economy in the area than crime and benefits.

I would add nail bars and Polski Sklep's to that list of negative indicators. Landlords would rather have any chain over them, and many will trade until the introductory reduced rent expires then fold. 

[Bobthebuilder]

26 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

Agree on point 1, neighbouring houses all holiday lets or holiday homes. However despite this and the shuffling undead I disagree with point 2, it does have a community and with the market, fishmongers , butchers, cafes etc. and lots of very local stuff sold in each I think there is resilience there that doesn’t rely on tourists in the summer. Plus at least the pensioners have cash at the moment 😊
seeing a lot of families move down, maybe into grandparents old houses or just moving from London and WFH. Maybe some lets being sold off too  

still going to move out to cash in though 😆

but community and resilience is an important point you make but really you don’t see that from the outside so very difficult to tell when you move to a new area what it will be like when push comes to shove 
 

if I see a high street and it’s now just vape shops and chicken takeaways then I worry. Maybe a bit snobbish but indicates a few things to me that don’t bode well for the future. 
 

like someone said upthread maybe better off in an area where people are less reliant on benefits (or state pension)

Swanage is a lovely place, great pubs, cinema, yacht club, pier, chippies, steam railway etc. Once you go to those levels of 2nd homes the writing is on the wall I think, a slow death like seaside towns in Cornwall, it ends up a mess.

Expensive place if you are selling up, you will get a great price, where are you moving to?

My point 2 was more a reference to the punks I used to see there in 1977 and a lyric from the Sex Pistols 1977 song God save the queen, "no future for you".

Just trying to squeeze as many song titles and lyrics into my posts to keep me amused, like pulling mussels from a shell, on the seafront.

[Joncrete Cungle]

1 hour ago, The Bear of Doom said:

It's probably been mentioned on this thread before, but good quality tools could be considered a worthwhile investment class.  I've found that eBay and car boot sales are good hunting grounds for cheap second-hand tools, just avoid the ones made out of Chinesium   I have managed to pick up tools costing £50, or even £300+, for as little as 50p at car boot sales in the last couple of years .

I've also discovered that service manuals, particularly for electronic items, can be found online for free download from sites such as archive.org, freeservicemanuals.info, elektrotanya.com, etc.

You can sometimes pick up bargains on ebay and Facebook. Quality old makes Hazet Geodore King Dick Sykes Pickavant etc for pennies.

[AyrshireBoy]

3 hours ago, Hancock said:

I bought INFA to dip my toe into the water the other year, those 2 look like a far sensible bet ... just a case of getting started by pressing the buy button.

As a Brit Voda maybe a good option on the Telcos ... i've been buying for several years and i'm still under on share price but divis will have made it up.

Bought some Voda last year and almost instantly dropped 20% and has pretty much stayed there since 😂

[working woman]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

I'd be really interested in  others thoughts, on whether such currency schemes (not necessarily crytpo ones) might offer individuals the opportunity to 'opt out of the system', stop paying tax, etc? Only I've not seen the general topic of local currencies discussed on the thread before in terms of them empowering people and independence.                   https://timebanking.org/

I have been a member of 2 different LETS schemes, so have a few thoughts.

The first scheme - In my late 20's and newly married,  I lived in an area of NW London and was part of a green/alternative community.  It was great. We got up to all sort, for example,  we collectively worked several allotments together, growing organically and sharing the produce. We also had regular bring and share parties, held either on the allotments, includimg a bonfire night party or parties  at different people's homes and we all bought food and drink along. People bought along artwork to share or played musical instruments and shared books. We also started a LETS scheme. My husband did quite well, using his camper van to take people's stuff to the tip and small DIY jobs and traded his LETS for dozens of bottles of homemade beer.  He was very happy. The group was small, about 20 people, all working or  lower middle class types, a few suffering mental health problems, physical disabilities, or had gone down the rat race / materialistic route and got sick of it and did something more alternative such as being a delivery driver for organic box schemes.  All lovely people and whilst the group was very close, it wasn't big enough for a workable LETS scheme. 

The thing they all had in common was a love of the natural world and were all a bit arty / creative in their own way.

After a couple of years, I moved to the Midlands and got a job as a community worker and one of my tasks was to set up a LETS scheme in the deprived areas of the town. 

I did a questionnaire sent out to hundreds of households, to find out if people were interested and what skills people had and wanted .  Most people wanted  small home DIY and gardening services. A small group of people were interested in setting up a LETS scheme, which we did. They had previously heard of them and again were all a bit alternative also often suffering physical or mental poor health.

No Yuppie types wanted to join or trades people. Most people couldn't be bothered to join it or were quite cynical and didn't want to do anything for anyone else unless they got paid in cash. Fair enough. Again that scheme had a great community spirit to start with, also having bring and share parties, but the group was too small and fizzled out. 

In LETS schemes I would say there is an element of people taking advantage of others who are unable to say no. If you have good DIY skills, you are in demand, which is great if you are able to spend your LETS on something worthwhile, which generally wasn't the case.

I think a better alternative is to belong to a community of like-minded people, have regular bring and share parties which are great fun and the host gets to keep all the unused food and drink.  You would  naturally find people doing favours for each other and ideas come out of that. For example in the First group I belonged to, we had a food co-op, buying large food items in bulk, such as sacks of rice, and splitting them up to make it cheaper, 

People do naturally want to belong to a community of like minded people to have a sense of belonging and support, whether it is football supporters or church groups.

DOSBODS is a good site, with a good community spirit where people can ask for help and advice if needed.

Some places in the South West have their own currencies such as the Bristol Pound, because there is a strong green/alternative community in Bristol. They are physical paper notes and you can spend them on buses. I think Stroud also may have it's own currency.

Another great idea is joining a local Credit Union, save with them and borrow small amounts if needed. Owned and run by the community. There is a common bond, such as people living in the same town or working for the same employer. I think the postal workers used to have one. 

For anyone looking to become part of an alternative community, join your local Credit Union, look up your local volunteering bureau, join a local Lets scheme, allotment group. As you start to talk to people, you soon start to learn about the small community groups in your area.

*** Update *** I just had a look at the UK LETS page and here is a link to the Bristol Lets scheme, with a list of goods and services offered. It seems to be a popular LETS scheme, probably helps that it is based in a city, so lots of people can join and Bristol does have a strong alternative community.  

https://www.bristol.letslink.org/members/listings_found.php?type=Offer&keyword=&category=0&timeframe=0

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, AyrshireBoy said:

Bought some Voda last year and almost instantly dropped 20% and has pretty much stayed there since 😂

I've had 2 ladders into VOD, (who i hate by the way, due to their shit customer service), 1st ladder down 25% 2nd ladder down 11%. I still might buy a 3rd as divis are good. I'm not convinced, another Macbeth in the making.

[working woman]

 

1 hour ago, AyrshireBoy said:

Bought some Voda last year and almost instantly dropped 20% and has pretty much stayed there since 😂

I really need to get some glasses, I read that as Vodka and thought you were talking about weight loss, as in I bought some Vodka and dropped 20%. I thought, wow that must be some bloody strong vodka.

 

[AyrshireBoy]

23 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I've had 2 ladders into VOD, (who i hate by the way, due to their shit customer service), 1st ladder down 25% 2nd ladder down 11%. I still might buy a 3rd as divis are good. I'm not convinced, another Macbeth in the making.

After learning about laddering on this thread (where else) I did consider buying more rather than Orange but wanted to get a bit more exposure to telecoms first. Quite difficult to do everything I want on a limited budget but will keep building.

[Axeman123]

Wow! Those century bonds they were able to sell a couple of years back must be the worst investment in history!

 

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, AyrshireBoy said:

After learning about laddering on this thread (where else) I did consider buying more rather than Orange but wanted to get a bit more exposure to telecoms first. Quite difficult to do everything I want on a limited budget but will keep building.

laddering is the best thing I have learnt from @DurhamBorn, keeps the emotions out. Not that I had no emotions in my last post.

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Nothing snobbish about that, those two business classes are really only there to launder cash or exploit 16hr/wk tax credits. An excess of them tells you there is no other economy in the area than crime and benefits.

I would add nail bars and Polski Sklep's to that list of negative indicators. Landlords would rather have any chain over them, and many will trade until the introductory reduced rent expires then fold. 

Don't forget the barbers... :-)))...oh and charity shops, the final 'nail in the coffin' of a local economy!

[Lightscribe]

10 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

So I've never fixed a mixer tap before, last time I fixed a tap it was a simple brass and washer jobby. I thought they were valved and wouldn't drip, but mine started dripping the other day. So one short youtube video later I find out you can get these little cylinder thingies for £4.67:

All I needed tools wise was a screwdriver for the isolation valve, a T8 bit for the hidden screws, and an adjustible spanner. I had all these. Took about 45 mins, including trying to find out how to turn the water off, and drop down to Screwfix. There is ceramic in them for some reason, and one had a crack. Hence the drip.

I reckon this would have cost £150 to call out a plumber. No slight on them, everyone needs a plumber and it's just supply and demand, though @sancho panza it seems to be money for old rope...

So what did this cost HMRC, more importantly?

I'd have to earn about £270 to pay for that, and pay them £108 in income tax, plus £11 in NI and £37 in employers NI. Then the plumber would probably have to pay 40% marginal tax on his £145.33, say £58, plus whatever he pays in NI. That totals up about £214!! They got 77p in VAT instead.

That's quite an eye opener, and shows how the working middle funds the whole country really. If the middle 30m people in this country did three of those jobs a year, that'd be about £19bn in lost tax reveune. More realisticaly if even 3m people did three jobs a year, thats still quite a hit to tax revenue. I guess this is why there is a point where raising taxes doesn't get any more into the coffers, and they'd do well to remember this.

And that’s why we’ve gone from being a fixing/self maintenance into a service economy. I did exactly the same with my cistern/toilet replacement the other week when redoing the bathroom (doing the big ticket stuff before April new financial year inflation rise), and the flush valves have all changed.

When hipster beards were in fashion a couple of years or so back, I always remember older people saying, that I’ve never seen so many bearded men with tattoos that couldn’t change a car tire.

Thats why it’s reached peak ridiculousness now, not only can you get McDonalds and KFC delivered to you, you can even get gig companies on bikes going to the local shops to pick up your shopping list quicker than you can do it yourself (for a premium of course). They are taking the last abilities away from the younger generation to think or act for themselves, which makes them more reliant on authority.

I know several zoomers at my work, who pay through the nose for ‘on demand’ services like these and wonder why they’re broke and got shitloads of credit card debt.

It’s not really their fault however as it’s the narrative that’s being peddled. The self maintenance/self reliant option is being eroded everywhere. I couldn’t change my own BMW car battery as it had to be ‘coded in’ at the dealers, despite me having the manufacturers software/cable on a laptop and can program/change other things on the car by myself.

All that will change with the inflation cycle. I’ve always envisioned that one day future generations will look back and laugh at how silly we were…. and also why the hell we used 4 separate packaging processes for a box of Mr.Kiplings cherry bakewells. 

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Just trying to squeeze as many song titles and lyrics into my posts to keep me amused, like pulling mussels from a shell, on the seafront.

Very good, I saw what you did there! :-)))

[Axeman123]

6 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Don't forget the barbers... :-)))...oh and charity shops, the final 'nail in the coffin' of a local economy!

Charity shops are the final scraping of the barrel; when a landlord gives up hope of a paying tennant, and just settles for one that saves the landlord having to pay rates on an empty unit.

[Hancock]

26 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Don't forget the barbers.

We can all be barbers ... grade 0 once a week saves a fortune!
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Remington-Clippers-Lengths-Trimming-Detailing/dp/B012F8MS9A/ref=asc_df_B012F8MS9A/?tag=googshopuk-21&linkCode=df0&hvadid=310734735537&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=17446033515629826933&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=2826&hvtargid=pla-568449158564&psc=1&th=1&psc=1

[macca]

6 hours ago, Hancock said:

This constant Corbyn talk is not even close to being related to "credit deflation and the ....".

No its related to critical thinking,, propaganda,, To survive the crash you have to pick your way through the lies. 

I don't do left or right politics.. But I do like stats and facts.  I hate lies and false narratives. If we stick to facts and truth we might have a country that actually works for everyone. 

I will say no more.. 

[macca]

Has anyone got the Getir app?

My other half has downloaded it, they send you vouchers, £10, £20.. etc you can spend on anything you like. We have filled our freezer with meat for a few pounds.

[Mapper]

Next and Greggs raise prices as costs spiral

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59892262

"We try and absorb as many of the cost increases that get passed to us as possible and then put through price increases where we can't avoid it, and we've done that this year," he told the PA news agency.

But really, how many sausage rolls would you need to be chomping down a week for this to make a difference to your bottom line?

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, AyrshireBoy said:

After learning about laddering on this thread (where else) I did consider buying more rather than Orange but wanted to get a bit more exposure to telecoms first. Quite difficult to do everything I want on a limited budget but will keep building.

Good to open Orange and then ladder into them both.Doesnt matter how small you start,you are taking action,unlike most people.Orange wont make any of us rich,but its should send us two nice divs a year,hopefully slowly increasing over time.Looks very uncervalued for the cycle so hopefully will drift higher over time.

[sancho panza]

On 04/01/2022 at 13:23, CannonFodder said:

Also for rural locations, councils will pull services such as roads repairs. Focusing finite resources to most important parts of network. Already happening with maintenance hierarchies under UKRLG but you aint seen nothing yet. 4x4s for country roads may become more of a thing.

 

Then there is council tax for rural detached. Then spare police to patrol and respond out of centres. Spare...

Already happening in the ambulance service in many regions ,small rural stations get closed,service gets judged by politicians on how many Cat 1 sub 8 minute responses they hit.......you're not going to achieve those running hard out into the countryside even if you floor it.

They don't even have enough police for the cities.Same problems.

If you're rural based,then the future is first aid courses and firearms training

[reformed nice guy]

7 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Already happening in the ambulance service in many regions ,small rural stations get closed,service gets judged by politicians on how many Cat 1 sub 8 minute responses they hit.......you're not going to achieve those running hard out into the countryside even if you floor it.

They don't even have enough police for the cities.Same problems.

Can confirm. Our small village has a defib and a poorly organised "first responder" program. If someone collapses then a first responder is supposed to go with a bag of basics while the ambulance comes. 999 is supposed to coordinate it.

Coming to a village near you!

9 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

firearms training
 

100%

[JMD]

3 hours ago, working woman said:

I have been a member of 2 different LETS schemes, so have a few thoughts.

The first scheme - In my late 20's and newly married,  I lived in an area of NW London and was part of a green/alternative community.  It was great. We got up to all sort, for example,  we collectively worked several allotments together, growing organically and sharing the produce. We also had regular bring and share parties, held either on the allotments, includimg a bonfire night party or parties  at different people's homes and we all bought food and drink along. People bought along artwork to share or played musical instruments and shared books. We also started a LETS scheme. My husband did quite well, using his camper van to take people's stuff to the tip and small DIY jobs and traded his LETS for dozens of bottles of homemade beer.  He was very happy. The group was small, about 20 people, all working or  lower middle class types, a few suffering mental health problems, physical disabilities, or had gone down the rat race / materialistic route and got sick of it and did something more alternative such as being a delivery driver for organic box schemes.  All lovely people and whilst the group was very close, it wasn't big enough for a workable LETS scheme. 

The thing they all had in common was a love of the natural world and were all a bit arty / creative in their own way.

After a couple of years, I moved to the Midlands and got a job as a community worker and one of my tasks was to set up a LETS scheme in the deprived areas of the town. 

I did a questionnaire sent out to hundreds of households, to find out if people were interested and what skills people had and wanted .  Most people wanted  small home DIY and gardening services. A small group of people were interested in setting up a LETS scheme, which we did. They had previously heard of them and again were all a bit alternative also often suffering physical or mental poor health.

No Yuppie types wanted to join or trades people. Most people couldn't be bothered to join it or were quite cynical and didn't want to do anything for anyone else unless they got paid in cash. Fair enough. Again that scheme had a great community spirit to start with, also having bring and share parties, but the group was too small and fizzled out. 

In LETS schemes I would say there is an element of people taking advantage of others who are unable to say no. If you have good DIY skills, you are in demand, which is great if you are able to spend your LETS on something worthwhile, which generally wasn't the case.

I think a better alternative is to belong to a community of like-minded people, have regular bring and share parties which are great fun and the host gets to keep all the unused food and drink.  You would  naturally find people doing favours for each other and ideas come out of that. For example in the First group I belonged to, we had a food co-op, buying large food items in bulk, such as sacks of rice, and splitting them up to make it cheaper, 

People do naturally want to belong to a community of like minded people to have a sense of belonging and support, whether it is football supporters or church groups.

DOSBODS is a good site, with a good community spirit where people can ask for help and advice if needed.

Some places in the South West have their own currencies such as the Bristol Pound, because there is a strong green/alternative community in Bristol. They are physical paper notes and you can spend them on buses. I think Stroud also may have it's own currency.

Another great idea is joining a local Credit Union, save with them and borrow small amounts if needed. Owned and run by the community. There is a common bond, such as people living in the same town or working for the same employer. I think the postal workers used to have one. 

For anyone looking to become part of an alternative community, join your local Credit Union, look up your local volunteering bureau, join a local Lets scheme, allotment group. As you start to talk to people, you soon start to learn about the small community groups in your area.

*** Update *** I just had a look at the UK LETS page and here is a link to the Bristol Lets scheme, with a list of goods and services offered. It seems to be a popular LETS scheme, probably helps that it is based in a city, so lots of people can join and Bristol does have a strong alternative community.  

https://www.bristol.letslink.org/members/listings_found.php?type=Offer&keyword=&category=0&timeframe=0

Yes I agree with all those points you make about local schemes and in particular how that many of these setups attract a certain type of person, which kinda prevents a fuller/broader participation from others.                                                                                        However that's why I referenced that national operated/recognised scheme and also posited the idea that crypto (especially if using privacy coins), for example, might increase the use and reach of these currency schemes. I guess I was thinking that if taxes do rise in future as predicted here, many trades people and others with skills that are in demand, but crucially have become jaded with employers and/or government, might jump at chance of doing work for - and with - like minded people. The link I provided was to a time-based barter system and although technically a barter trade is taxable, I don't know in practice if/how the authorities could ever accurately monitor these types of schemes especially if using the crypto coins mentioned above. Not a service available currently but one day perhaps.... Btw I dont think crypto is an essential element here, merely included it for discussion.